It had been difficult to find repeating patterns of business cycles in the Chinese economy previously. Instability seems to have been its general trait, with repeated fluctuation from drastic overheating to shrinkage in short periods until the 1980s. However, as it entered the 1990s, the business cycle in the Chinese economy settled into very stable conditions and it succeeded in maintaining an economic growth rate of over 7% during the Asian economic crisis. It was deemed that all the accomplishments of the Chinese economy were due to the strengthened ability on the part of the Chinese government to forecast and adjust to changing macroeconomic conditions. Since entering the 2000s, China’s economic growth accelerated again, in connection with its WTO membership. And before the global economic crisis in 2008, China had shown consistently high rates of economic growth, stable prices and huge trade surpluses. But, since the third quarter of 2007, there were some changes in basic economic conditions in China which were represented as a high growth-stable prices pattern that had lasted almost 10 years. And from that point in time, the importance of adapting macroeconomic policies aimed at achieving conflicting goals of economic growth and price control began to increase.
When we look at the changes in major economic indices in the recent business cycle in China; such as consumption, investment and export; the most unstable index was export, being sensitive to influence from global economic conditions. Meanwhile, the Chinese government would offset the unstable export demand by controlling the government sector’s investments, including those by state owned enterprises. However, although exports are shaky, the impact of sudden change is limited in reality, because of the high proportion of processing trade in Chinese exports. In other words, even though China has a high level of dependence on exports, the percentage of exports connected to domestic added value is quite limited.
In case of China, the economic indicator with the closes connection to trends of GDP growth rate change is the industrial production growth rate, rather than demand side indicators such as consumption, investment and export. We can observe this fact in the process where the impact of the global economic crisis in the second half of 2008 was passed on to the Chinese economy. At that time, while there were no changes in consumption, investment and export indicators, the industrial production growth rate changed drastically and it lead to slowdown of the GDP growth rate.
In this paper, we studied the main determining agent of the Chinese macroeconomic policy, along with the structure and process of decision-making in order to forecast and deal with changes in macroeconomic policy. And we also suggest some examples as to how Chinese macroeconomic policy is determined.
Despite the limitations of one party rule, the process of policy decision making is becoming more regular, specialized and diversified. However, it still has the distinctness and limitations expected in a transition country. The party center and the State Council depend on achieving control and conformity in wielding the power of decision without the institutionalized or the verification procedure in the policy process. This practice, based on democratic centralism, is of a systemic nature and constitutes a limitation of structure of Chinese policy determination.
It is important to know the structural characteristics of the Chinese economy to understand its’ business cycle and macroeconomic policy. In this paper, we divide the structural characteristics into characteristics related to policy objectives and structural characteristics of each economic field.
China is likely to keep growing and could attain a high growth rate of 7~8% through steady mobilization of production factors and improvements in efficiency. And the Chinese government suggested the increase of domestic consumption, improvement of income distribution and gradual opening of the capital market in its 12th Five Year Plan, which will be implemented from 2011 till 2015. This kind of mid-to-long-term strategy might influence the structure of consumption, investment, export or the direction of the execution of the macroeconomic policy substantially.
Aside from character of its policy objectives, there are some important things concerning China’s economy. First, the portion of private consumption in the demand side is decreasing continuously. Second, there is a need for the restructuring of its enormous excess capacity. Third, there is also a need to achieve a balance between price stabilization and supply expansion in the property market. Fourth, China may use an aggressive fiscal policy that is based on sound financial capacities. We also discussed the Chinese economic policy implementation during the economic upsurge and slowdown in recent years.
This paper forwards some implications for understanding the flow of the Chinese economy, and policy recommendations for the Korean government in establishing a policy direction toward China. First of all, the export factor acts as a connection between changes in Chinese economic conditions and the Korean economy. Korea’s export to China is connected directly with Chinese exports to the world. And Korean exports to China is immediately precedes that of China’s to the world, as Korea’s exports to China mostly consist of raw materials and parts.
Second, it is important to understand and make use of changes in China’s development strategy that emphasizes the role of domestic demand in the economy. This paper emphasizes that the Korea-China FTA is the most influential method for Korea in entering the Chinese domestic consumer market. Furthermore, there is a need for active efforts to enter the Chinese services market, which is expected to grow rapidly as a result of the enlargement of the consumer market and technical development. We also need to be ready for new risks that changes in China’s development strategy might bring forth.
Third, it is necessary to understand the structural characteristics of the Chinese economy. There were changes before and after 2007, and the condition of the Chinese economy is changing, as the Chinese economy is moving from a pattern of high growth-low inflation into high growth-high inflation. We must pay attention to these kinds of pattern change because there won't be any high economic growth based on low material prices in the future. We have to pay particular attention to trends of product prices and the capital market when making forecasts on Chinese economic trends and policy changes. Also, this paper emphasizes that greater attention be given to mid-to-long-term effects on industrial competitiveness by changes in the Chinese business cycle and macroeconomic policy. Finally, this paper suggests the necessity of building a system for sequential analysis of the Chinese macro-economy, by monitoring the policy determination process and announcement of key economic indicators etc.

서 언 

국문요약 

제1장 서 론 
1. 연구의 필요성과 목적 
2. 기존 연구의 검토 및 문제 제기 
가. 기존 연구의 검토 
나. 문제 제기 

제2장 중국의 경기순환과 특징 
1. 중국의 경기순환 및 특징 
가. 중국의 경기순환 
나. 중국 경기순환의 특징 
2. 중국 경기지표의 동향과 특징 

제3장 중국의 거시경제정책 결정구조와 과정 
1. 거시경제정책 결정주체 
가. 공산당의 정책결정기구 
나. 국무원(행정부)의 정책결정기구 
다. 거시경제정책 집행기구 
2. 거시경제정책 결정구조와 과정 
가. 주요 당정회의와 거시경제정책 결정구조 
나. 거시경제정책 결정과정 
3. 거시경제정책 결정사례 
가. 금융위기 전후 통화정책의 결정 및 조정과정 
나. 제12차 5개년계획 제정과 중장기정책 결정과정

제4장 거시경제정책 운용의 구조적 변수 
1. 정책목표의 특수성 
가. 고성장 압력 
나. 디플레이션 경제의 종료 가능성 
다. 환율정책의 특수성 
라. 장기 전략적 고려 
2. 구조적 특수성 
가. 중국 민간소비의 구조적 특징 
나. 산업정책적 고려: 과잉생산 및 산업구조조정 
다. 성장기 자산시장의 특수성: 부동산시장 
라. 재정정책과 재정건전성 

제5장 중국의 거시조절정책(宏观调控) 사례 
1. 경기 상승기의 거시조절정책 사례 
가. 긴축 통화정책 및 산업구조 조정 
나. 안정적인 기조하의 ‘확대’ 재정정책 
다. 기타 경기 상승기의 거시조절 조치 
2. 경기 하강기의 거시조절정책 사례 
가. 적극적 재정정책의 시행 
나. 적절히 완화된 통화정책의 시행 
다. 산업진흥정책의 시행 

제6장 결론: 경기순환 및 거시정책의 특징과 시사점 
1. 요약과 평가 
2. 시사점과 대응전략 
가. 중국경제의 변화와 한국경제: 수출을 통한 연결 
나. 내수를 강조하는 ‘발전전략 전환’의 이해 및 활용 
다. 구조적 특수성에 대한 이해 
라. 정책결정과정 및 지표발표 모니터링 

참고문헌 

Executive Summary