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Proceedings 2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue 경제관계, 경제협력

저자 정철, Charles E. Morrison, Mark Thoma 발간번호 16-02 자료언어 English 발간일 2016.12.30

원문보기(다운로드:1,301) 저자별 보고서 주제별 보고서

KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue 주제 하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한·중·일·미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거시경제와 경제통합의 현황 및 전망에 대해 토론하고, 무역과 통화정책에 대해 논의함으로써 지역경제의 안정과 발전을 위한 다각적 협력방안을 모색하였습니다.
 

The conference was held on Dec 14-15, 2015 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. Participants from China, Japan, Korea and the United States discussed the economic future of the major North Pacific countries and the importance of economic cooperation among them. Major topics in each session were (1) Trade (2) Macroeconomic Perspectives and (3) Finance. The first topic, "Trade",  related to the China'a trade strategy, China's  Belt-Road Initiative, Korea's Eurasia Initiative, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). The second topic, "Macroeconomic Perspectives", aimed to tackle global or regional economic problems through the understanding of the macreconomic  policies of the emerging market economies, uncertainty in the economic conditions of the United States, China's New Economic Norms, and the struggle of the East Asian International Order. The third topic, "Finance", aimed to provide an analytical perspective over currency convertibility, unconventional monetary policies, and prospect of cooperation between Belt-Road Initiative and TPP in the global economic governance. The conference concluded with the major  findings and policy implications from the earlier sessions, particularily, monetary policy response in emerging economies and the importance of strengthing the North Pacific cooperation were discussed.
 

Contributors


Introduction and Overview

Mark Thoma


Session 1 Trade


China’s Emerging Trade Strategy: Drivers, Influence and Implications for North Pacific Economic Cooperation

Yong Wang


1. Key Drivers of Change in China’s Trade Policy
2. China’s Emerging Trade Policy
3. Why will China Embrace Higher Standard FTAs?
4. Integrate the Belt and Road Initiative and AIIB into China’s Trade Policy
5. Implications for the Global Trade Order and North Pacific Economic Cooperation
References


China’s Belt-Road Initiative and Korea’s Eurasia Initiative

Inkyo Cheong


1. Introduction on Korea’s Eurasia Initiative
2. China’s Belt-Road Initiative
3. Korea’s Nordpolitik and Recent Performance of its Eurasia Initiative
4. Conclusion and Policy Implications


The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement High Diplomacy and Low (Domestic) Politics

Claude Barfield


1. Broad Themes and Analytic Frameworks
2. Security/Diplomatic Rationale of Trade Policy
3. The Low Domestic Politics of Trade: Who Wins and Who Loses
4. The Political Problem Areas
5. Concluding Observations


Trade

Comments by Taeho Bark


Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
Comments by Theresa Greaney

 

Session 2 Macroeconomic Perspectives


Global Economic Problems and Emerging Market Economies’ Macroeconomic Policies

Inchul Kim


1. Introduction 102
2. Global Economic Environment 103
3. Analysis of Global Economic Problems 104
4. Macroeconomic Policies for EMEs 109
5. Conclusion 113


References 114
Economic Conditions in the US and the Uncertain Prospects for Future Economic Growth

Mark Thoma


1. Introduction
2. The Current State of the US Economy
3. Forecast for GDP
4. Risks to Growth
5. Conclusion


References


China’s New Economic Norms

Yijiang Wang


1. Introduction
2. The Slowdown
3. Features of the New Economy
4. Concluding Remarks


The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Struggle for the East Asian International Order

Ming Wan


1. Introduction
2. The AIIB as an International Financial Institution
3. The AIIB and International Order
4. The AIIB and China
5. Recommendation


Macroeconomic Perspectives for Developed and Emerging Economies

Comments by Michael J. Roberts


1. Introduction
2. Emerging Economies
3. China 200
4. The United States


Macroeconomic Perspectives

Comments by Yoon Je Cho


1. Secular Stagnation
2. China’s Economic Slowdown
3. The Inclusion of RMB in the SDR Basket

Session 3 Finance


Strategies for Currency Convertibility: Korea’s Perspectives

Jang Yung Lee


1. Definition and Accepted Wisdom
2. Benefits and Costs of Convertibility
3. Strategies for Currency Convertibility
4. Countries’ Experiences of Convertibility
5. Conclusion and Policy Suggestions
References


Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast Asia

Marcus Noland


1. Introduction
2. How We Got Here
3. Spillovers
4. Liftoff
5. Conclusions
References


Exploration of the Prospect of Cooperation between Belt and Road Initiative and TPP in Global Economic Governance

Xiaotong Shan


1. Development Philosophy and Cooperation Approach of Belt and Road Initiative
2. BRI’s Implications for the Global Economy
3. Comparison of Similarities and Differences between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
4. Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP for Global Economic Integration
5. Mutual Learning between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
6. A Preliminary Study on Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
7. Conclusion
References


Finance Issues

Comments by Baybars Karacaovali


Session 4 Major Findings and Policy Implications


Monetary Policy Response in Emerging Economies and North Pacific Cooperation

Il Houng Lee


1. Introduction
2. Capital Flows and Impact on Emerging Markets
3. Not Always an Efficient Allocation of Capital Across Borders
4. Synchronization of Interest Rates
5. Unsynchronized Business Cycles
6. Overcoming the Limitations of Monetary Policy
7. Capital Flow Measures
8. Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation


Major Findings and Policy Implications

Comments by Taeho Bark


Conference Program
Program
Participants 

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