발간물
전체보고서
Charles E. Morrison
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2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue
KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue 주제 하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한·중·일·미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거시경제와 경제통합의 현황 및 전망에 대해 토론하..
정철 외 발간일 2016.12.30
경제관계, 경제협력목차닫기Contributors
Introduction and OverviewMark Thoma
Session 1 Trade
China’s Emerging Trade Strategy: Drivers, Influence and Implications for North Pacific Economic CooperationYong Wang
1. Key Drivers of Change in China’s Trade Policy
2. China’s Emerging Trade Policy
3. Why will China Embrace Higher Standard FTAs?
4. Integrate the Belt and Road Initiative and AIIB into China’s Trade Policy
5. Implications for the Global Trade Order and North Pacific Economic Cooperation
References
China’s Belt-Road Initiative and Korea’s Eurasia InitiativeInkyo Cheong
1. Introduction on Korea’s Eurasia Initiative
2. China’s Belt-Road Initiative
3. Korea’s Nordpolitik and Recent Performance of its Eurasia Initiative
4. Conclusion and Policy Implications
The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement High Diplomacy and Low (Domestic) PoliticsClaude Barfield
1. Broad Themes and Analytic Frameworks
2. Security/Diplomatic Rationale of Trade Policy
3. The Low Domestic Politics of Trade: Who Wins and Who Loses
4. The Political Problem Areas
5. Concluding Observations
TradeComments by Taeho Bark
Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
Comments by Theresa GreaneySession 2 Macroeconomic Perspectives
Global Economic Problems and Emerging Market Economies’ Macroeconomic PoliciesInchul Kim
1. Introduction 102
2. Global Economic Environment 103
3. Analysis of Global Economic Problems 104
4. Macroeconomic Policies for EMEs 109
5. Conclusion 113
References 114
Economic Conditions in the US and the Uncertain Prospects for Future Economic GrowthMark Thoma
1. Introduction
2. The Current State of the US Economy
3. Forecast for GDP
4. Risks to Growth
5. Conclusion
References
China’s New Economic NormsYijiang Wang
1. Introduction
2. The Slowdown
3. Features of the New Economy
4. Concluding Remarks
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Struggle for the East Asian International OrderMing Wan
1. Introduction
2. The AIIB as an International Financial Institution
3. The AIIB and International Order
4. The AIIB and China
5. Recommendation
Macroeconomic Perspectives for Developed and Emerging EconomiesComments by Michael J. Roberts
1. Introduction
2. Emerging Economies
3. China 200
4. The United States
Macroeconomic PerspectivesComments by Yoon Je Cho
1. Secular Stagnation
2. China’s Economic Slowdown
3. The Inclusion of RMB in the SDR BasketSession 3 Finance
Strategies for Currency Convertibility: Korea’s PerspectivesJang Yung Lee
1. Definition and Accepted Wisdom
2. Benefits and Costs of Convertibility
3. Strategies for Currency Convertibility
4. Countries’ Experiences of Convertibility
5. Conclusion and Policy Suggestions
References
Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast AsiaMarcus Noland
1. Introduction
2. How We Got Here
3. Spillovers
4. Liftoff
5. Conclusions
References
Exploration of the Prospect of Cooperation between Belt and Road Initiative and TPP in Global Economic GovernanceXiaotong Shan
1. Development Philosophy and Cooperation Approach of Belt and Road Initiative
2. BRI’s Implications for the Global Economy
3. Comparison of Similarities and Differences between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
4. Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP for Global Economic Integration
5. Mutual Learning between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
6. A Preliminary Study on Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
7. Conclusion
References
Finance IssuesComments by Baybars Karacaovali
Session 4 Major Findings and Policy Implications
Monetary Policy Response in Emerging Economies and North Pacific CooperationIl Houng Lee
1. Introduction
2. Capital Flows and Impact on Emerging Markets
3. Not Always an Efficient Allocation of Capital Across Borders
4. Synchronization of Interest Rates
5. Unsynchronized Business Cycles
6. Overcoming the Limitations of Monetary Policy
7. Capital Flow Measures
8. Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
Major Findings and Policy ImplicationsComments by Taeho Bark
Conference Program
Program
Participants국문요약닫기KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue 주제 하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한·중·일·미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거시경제와 경제통합의 현황 및 전망에 대해 토론하고, 무역과 통화정책에 대해 논의함으로써 지역경제의 안정과 발전을 위한 다각적 협력방안을 모색하였습니다.
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Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2014 Korea Dialogue Conference on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation 주제하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한․중․일․미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거..
Charles E. Morrison and Marcus Noland eds. 발간일 2015.05.15
경제협력, 북한경제목차닫기Introduction and Overview
Affiliations of the Contributors
Keynote Address
Are Mega Free Trade Agreements the Best Alternative for Advancing Global Trade Liberalization? / Cae-One KimSession 1 Prospects for the Region’s Economies
Assessing Macroeconomic Policies in the US in Response to the Great Recession / David J. Stockton
Introduction
Key Characteristics of the Recession and Recovery
The Response of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Prospects for US Macroeconomic Policies and the Implications for the Economy
Risks to the US Outlook and the Implications for the North Pacific Economies
Conclusions
Challenges and Opportunities in China’s Economy / Wang Yijiang
Introduction
Economic Challenges for China
New Opportunities
Concluding RemarksAbenomics and Beyond: The Japanese Economy in the 2010s / Tokuo Iwaisako
Introduction
Brief Chronology of Abenomics
Japan’s Macroeconomic Performance under Abenomics
Potential Dangers for Abenomics
Conclusion
Prospects of the Korean Economy / Il Houng Lee and Seongman Moon
Introduction
Searching for Lost Economic Growth in Korea
Reasons for the Decline in Domestic Demand Growth
Conclusion
Commentary:
Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Discussion on Session 1 Papers / Sang-Hyop Lee
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Overview by Session Rapporteur / Michael G. PlummerSession 2 Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a Pathway to Asian Integration / Deborah Elms
The Goal: Free-Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)
Two of Four Pathways in Play
The Launch of the TPP
Specific Benefits of the TPP: Market Access for Goods
Additional TPP Provisions
Last-Minute Shaving of Quality?
TPP Timelines
TPP Institutional Framework
Trade and Investment Diversion Coming
Circling Back to the FTAAP
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Design, Status, and Challenges / Zhang Jianping and Nie Wei
Status of RCEP Negotiations
Dilemma of RCEP Negotiations
Compared with TPP, Is RCEP More Welcomed by Developing Economies in the Asia‑Pacific Region?
Challenges of the RCEP under the Framework of Five “10+1” FTAs
General Perceptions or Concerns about FTAs in China
Implications of RCEP for FTAAP Proposals
Implications of the RCEP for the North Pacific Economies
Conclusion
China–Japan–Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK FTA): Design, Status, and Challenges / Dukgeun Ahn
State of the Play of the CJK FTA
CJK Trade and Economic Assessment Result
Mega FTA Competition and CJK FTA
Issues for Negotiation
Challenges AheadCommentaries:
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Comments / Kiyoun Sohn
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Discussion of Papers Presented in Session 2 / Michael G. Plummer
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Overview by Session 2 Rapporteur / Theresa M. GreaneySession 3 Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea
Can North Korea Follow China’s Path of Reform and Open Door Policy? / Zhou Huji
China’s National Security, the Transformation of Political Concept and Open Door Policy
Kim Jong Il’s Political Ideas and Survival Strategy
“Songun Politics”: One of the Political Survival Strategies
Improved Leader Worship: One of the Political Survival Strategies
“7.1 Measures”: Economic Survival Strategies
Nuclear Development and Asymmetric Dampening: International Survival Strategy
Survival and Emerging from the Crisis: Conclusion and DiscussionEconomic Developments in North Korea / Marcus Nolan
Introduction
Internal Developments
External Relations
Illicit Activities
Conclusions
The Current Situation and Future Prospects of the North Korean Economy / Dongho Jo
Introduction
The Current Situation
The Reaction of the North Korean Leadership
The Future ProspectsCommentaries:
Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Hyung-Gon Jeong
Assessing the Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Nicholas Eberstadt
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Overview by Session 3 Rapporteur / Anjali NathRoundtable Discussion on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
North Pacific Integration from an International Financial Perspective / Hiroyuki Ito
Introduction
Interest Rates Linkages and Their Implications on Monetary Policy Management
“Internationalization” of the Renminbi
Conclusion
Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Tokuo Iwaisako
Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Jong Seok Kim
“The Asian Paradox”
The Limits of Bilateral Talks
The Need for Multilateral Dialogs
Soft Issues
Harmony in DiversityComments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / David J. Stockton
The Global Influences of Half of the World: Comments on North Pacific Cooperation / Wang Yijiang
Report of the Session Rapporteur
Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation: Overview by Roundtable Rapporteur / Duyen BuiConference Program
Program
List of Participants국문요약닫기KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2014 Korea Dialogue Conference on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation 주제하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한․중․일․미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거시경제와 경제통합의 현황 및 전망에 대해 토론하고, 북한 이슈에 대해 논의함으로써 지역경제의 안정과 발전을 위한 다각적 협력방안을 모색하였습니다.
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