한·터키 FTA는 양국간 교역·투자를 확대하는 중대한 계기가 됨은 물론 대터키 투자 확대에 의한 현지기업의 수출여력 제고를 통해 중장기적으로 양국간 무역불균형을 완화하는 효과도 기대할 수 있다. 한·터키 FTA를 관세철폐 관점에서만 고려한다면 그 효과는 제한적일 수 있으나, 터키의 지정학적 중요성과 신흥시장으로서의 잠재력 등을 고려하면 실제로 FTA의 경제적 효과는 양국의 투자 증진, 비관세장벽 철폐, 그리고 양국간 경제관계 개선 등으로 나타날 수 있다. 따라서 한·터키 FTA를 추진함에 있어서는 상품관세의 양허만이 아니라 비관세장벽과 서비스, 투자 등을 포함하는 포괄적(comprehensive)이며 높은 수준의 FTA를 추구하고 양국간 관계 증진에 주안점을 두는 것이 바람직할 것으로 보인다.
There are raising concerns on protectionism while global countries are recently implementing policies to protect their internal industries after economic crises. World leaders in two G-20 summits, which held both in November 2008 and April 2009, had arrived at an agreement on observing fundamental principles of trade liberalization and stopping protectionism measures. Korean government is strategically promoting commercial policies through FTAs in the respect of the even though Korean government is for the multilateralism through the WTO in principle. The FTA negotiation between Korea and Turkey is understandable in the context of our government's commercial policies, and it will begin sooner or later. Even though Turkey has maintained good ties with Korea for last 50 years after participating in the Korean War to outbreak in 1950, the economic relation between both countries has been below the expectation. Also Korea's trade with Turkey has kept the balance in black since 1992, therefore Turkish government has consistently asked the correction of trade imbalance to Korean government. Although Turkey asked the FTA between Korea and Turkey first, the FTA with Turkey is worth consideration in mid-term. The Korea-EU FTA will take effect in the near future as the FTA negotiation, which began in January 2007, was over and both countries provisionally signed a draft in October 2008. On the other hand, Turkey has to pursue the FTA with any countries to conclude the FTA with the EU according to the Custom Union. This study concentrates on supplying fundamental references to be needed in the FTA negotiation with Turkey which will be initiated in the near future by analyzing the feasibility and the economic effects of a Korea-Turkey FTA. Furthermore, this study tries to look for approaches to enhance the economic cooperation with Turkey for opening up new emerging markets. First of all, we analyze current political and economic issues in Turkey, the potential of Turkish economy as an emerging market, strengths and threats in order to raise the understandings of Turkish political and economic circumstances. And then we review trade and investment between both countries for the economic relation. This study use sources for comparative advantage, such as RCA, MCA, and TSI to analyze the industrial competitiveness between Korea and Turkey. In addition, this study estimates the economic effects of the FTA between Korea and Turkey by CGE model. Finally, this study is to seek some measures to enhance the economic cooperation between both countries in terms of the basic directions of the economic cooperation, trade-invigorating measures and the revitalization of investment toward Turkey. In Chapter 2, the FTA with Turkey is likely to benefit our national interest on the basis of geographical importance and the potential as an emerging market of Turkey. And it is a help to stimulate the expansion of both trade volume and investment, and furthermore to resolve the trade imbalance given that trade volume and investment have been very small in comparison with the economic power of both countries. Competitiveness analyses in Chapter 3 show that Turkey is a very important Korea's export market in terms of petrochemical and rubber products, general machinery, textile and clothing and other manufacturing. Therefore the Korea-Turkey FTA is able to play an active role in these industries. According to the CGE analysis in Chapter 3, the Korea-Turkey FTA is likely to minimize domestic production, or trigger the deterioration of the trade balance when considering that Turkey has been composed of the Custom Union with the EU. In other words, economic benefits that Korea will gain from the Korea-Turkey FTA seems to be very small or even negative on the assumption that the Korea-Turkey FTA takes effect after the Korea-EU FTA comes into effect. The CGE analysis, however, is likely to underestimate the economic effects of the Korea-Turkey FTA due to dealing only with the elimination of custom duties on goods. We can really recognize that the economic effects of FTA will trigger not only changes of GDP and welfare effect, but also investment increase between both countries, elimination of NTB, and improvement of economic relations. Therefore it is desirable that the FTA between Korea and Turkey may be the comprehensive FTA including NTB, services, investment as well as goods. In conclusion, this study suggests that the Korea-Turkey FTA should be comprehensive and high-level, as recently Korea has a comprehensive and high-level FTA approach to include not only goods but also service and investment liberalization. In Chapter 4, this study suggests some basic directions for the economic cooperation between both countries. First of all, among basic strategies to Turkey as an emerging market is the comprehensive economic cooperation to make it possible to advance into promising neighbor regions and countries such as the Central Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. Secondly, we can see a possibility of the win-win FTA approach by suggesting policies to facilitate trade between both countries as a resolution for a trade imbalance while strategically expanding Korea's export to Turkey. Thirdly, this study proposes measures to improve the economic cooperation through expanding governmental and civil exchanges between both countries. Finally, this study suggests in detail some measures to facilitate investment to Turkey in four areas of energy industry including natural gas, transport infrastructure, ICT and automobile parts, which are main investment projects of Turkey in the future.
제2장 터키의 정치․경제 현황 1. 정치 개황 가. 국내 정치 나. 대외관계 2. 터키 경제의 잠재력 가. 지정학적 중요성 나. 시장잠재력 다. EU 시장 진출 교두보 3. 경제 현황 가. 최근 경제 현황 나. 터키의 관세구조 다. 주요 통상장벽 라. 터키 경제의 성장요인과 위험요소 마. 향후 전망
제3장 한․터키 FTA의 경제적 효과 1. 양국간 경제관계 가. 양국간 교역 현황 나. 양국간 투자 현황 2. 연산가능일반균형(CGE) 분석 가. 모형 설정 나. 거시경제효과 다. 산업별 효과 3. 산업별 경쟁력 분석 가. 현시비교우위(RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage) 나. 시장별 비교우위(MCA: Market Comparative Advantage) 다. 무역특화지수(TSI: Trade Specialization Index) 라. 무역특화지수의 동태 변화 분석
제4장 양국간 경제협력 증진방안 1. 한․터키 경제협력 기본 방향 2. 양국간 교역활성화 방안 3. 대터키 투자진출 활성화 방안
부 록 대터키 투자활성화 방안 1. 천연가스 등 에너지산업에 대한 투자 및 협력 2. 교통인프라 개선사업 투자 확대 3. 정보통신(ICT) 도입․확산 및 낙후지역 개발사업 참여 확대 4. 자동차부품 등 주요 산업의 EU 진출거점으로 활용