This study puts its purpose to considering present condition of uncertainty of politics, economics, and social culture in Turkey and the cause of the uncertainty. To analyse actual proof about the economic uncertainty, daily and monthly data of physical indicators and financial market indicators of Turkey offered by Thomson Reuters Datastream was used, also to study uncertainty of politics and social culture, 1,016 questionnaires which were taken in Turkey were gathered. In the case of survey which was conducted in Turkey, usable 503 questionnaires among 1,016 questionnaires were selected to analyse the uncertainty. To raise reliability of the survey, the questionnaires was based on face to face and self-administering method, but collecting of the questionnaires was from 2016.08 to 2016.11 for four months. Basic data, which is cross section data, is concluding 142 questions which are measured by 7 point Likert type scale. To verify robustness of the data, World Value Survey data which is investigated in world main country every 5 years and survey data that was taken by KONDA, which is an authoritative Turkish survey institute, were compared and considered. As an analysis tool, PLS(Partial Least Square) applied structural equation model was used.
  In detail, current situation of uncertainty of politics, economics, and social culture in Turkey was introduced in chapter 2. In the field of politics, pessimism in credit rating and political degree of risk development coexists with optimism in the progress of conflict between Islamism and secularism which is the spirit of the national foundation. In the field of social culture, high level of social heterogeneity and social conflict indicators are found because of ethnic and cultural diversity in Turkish society. In the field of economics, indicators that represent sovereign credit risk are increasing over depreciation of the currency and variability of market indices and macro economic indicators which are interest rate and stock index, et cetera. Among the causes, some market indicators make precise determination impossible, so careful consideration about the cause of uncertainty occurrence is needed.
  Chapter 3 describes Turkish political landscape as a base work which is assembling various aspects which identity, political life, national vision, and so on contain by considering Turkish political uncertainty determinant. Also, we analysed main determinants of politics uncertainty by exploiting World Value Survey data and obtained data by carrying out a survey in Turkey. A concern about the field of Turkish politics was developing from conflicts between Turks and non-Turks, between Turkish and immigrants, and diplomatic problems with surrounding nations. Especially, uneasiness of the nation in Turkey is increasing and various diplomatic problems are occurring because of a long-lasting conflict between Turks, who are absolute majority, and Kurdish, who are minority, also a rapid increment of refugees and terrorism due to the outbreak of regional conflict containing Syria, and Islamic State. In addition, the present Erdogan’s Government claiming to advocate democratic regime at the beginning of launching is showing aspects of somewhat agreed solidity nation in the becoming restless situation because of a occurrence of domestic coup. To resolve the politics uncertainty, intertribal unity to construct social, political order and stability is needed fundamentally, apart from social unity as Turkish. Statistically, civic identity has the same effect as political communication(confidence), also the civic identity enhances a stability of the system.
  However, conflict among pro-Western, pro-Islamic, and pro-Rusian ideologies is unavoidable potentially in the case of continuous national emergency as it is. Government should suggest national future and vision, and promote value congruence among members of society, but the result of statistic analysis shows that national value sharing in the present Turkish society has no effect in the function of decreasing political uncertainty. It means that political uncertainty cannot decrease without national vision which makes the public not a ideological confrontation group but a united community in the circumstance of the expanded civic political participation along with progressing of an optimum level of democratic society.
  Chapter 4 represents uncertainty of the field of social culture. Identity, multiple cultures, and the unity of society are the subjects to consider conflicts among the groups in the multi-cultural society and influencing factors to receptiveness of multiple cultures. Identity is divided into ethnic identity and civil identity, multiple cultures is contemplated with social sense of distance against the other group, particularly immigrants and refugees, receptiveness of multiple cultures, experience of multi-culture education, and understanding. The unity of society is divided into attitude and behavior. Based on the data of Turkish native research institute, domestic and foreign preceeding studies, the social sense of distance against immigrants, ethnic(tribal) identity, civil identity, the recognition of unity, the understanding of multi-cultural receptiveness are classified as a predictors, and the experience of multi-culture education is a moderating variable, so we can observe the relationship with receptiveness of multiple cultures.
  To sum up the result of the study, civil and ethnic identity(0), identity(+), Social distance(-), multi-cultural education(0), the recognition of the unity1, 2(+) are the determinant of Turkish receptiveness of multiple cultures. Especially, the essence of Turks ethnic identity is becoming vague, also Turks nationalism has no positive effects on receptiveness of multi-culture because of no accepting attitude to the multi-culture. We can conclude that social distance and exclusiveness against immigrants and refugees are due to economic loss and burden of welfare/taxes. Also, multi-cultural education is positioning at the insufficient phase, and the effect of the education is insignificant, so there are no effects on the receptiveness of multi-culture. Turkish people are understanding the need of the social unity, but they are lack of cognizance to actual activity or the other groups.
  Chapter 5 shows the main reasons of Turkey economical uncertainty. Principal component data extracted from factors constituting economical uncertainty is a dependent variable, and exchange rate, interest rate, stock market, economical atmosphere, counterparty risk, risk of developing nations(discount), strategical dependency on import, and so on are independent variables in this study of research model. Daily analysis data from 2004 to 2016 was used for the study, and markov situation turnover model which explores determinants depending on the variability phase by dividing variability phase into high variability and low variability as an analysis tool.
  To sum up the result of analysis, the factors which are exchange rate, economic climate, counterparty risk, strategic dependency on import, and so on have a crucial impact on the economic uncertainty in Turkey. Also, bond market, risk of emerging markets, stock market and so on represented low level of effects on economic uncertainty in Turkey. Meanwhile, in the case of high volatility phase and low volatility phase, the factors which are exchange rate, economic climate, counterparty risk, risk of emerging markets, strategic dependency on import and so on, determine high volatility phase of economic uncertainty in Turkey in the high volatility phase. On the other hand, the factors which are bond market, counterparty risk, risk of emerging markets, strategic dependence on import and so on are the determinants of the economic uncertainty in Turkey in the low volatility phase.
  Also, phase turnover of the economic uncertainty in Turkey happened frequently, and the factors which make turnover to low volatility phase are bond market, economic atmosphere, strategic dependence on import and so on have effects. When the past time delay value is applied, the factors which are volatility of exchange rate, economic climate, counterparty risk, strategic dependence on import and so on are the main determinants that makes the economic uncertainty in Turkey turnover to the low volatility phase.
  By considering above analysis, we estimated capacity of uncertainty management in Turkey, inspected possible scenarios, and examined the impact-reaction between the economic uncertainty in Turkey and South Korea in chapter 6. Also, we anticipated the economic uncertainty in Turkey, deduced strategic and political implication for the corporations and the government. As a ultimate purpose of this study, we concisely put forward policy and business strategy for Korean government and Korean corporations which have got through to Turkey or have a plan to expand in Turkey. Above all, we are suggesting counter-strategy of corporations. First, the corporations should evade the risks with real option strategy by learning the local market with spacing out between initial investment and sequential investment when they get through to uncertainty inherent Turkey. Second, the corporations need to pursue not only exploitation entry strategy which is based on market and resource seeking type but knowledge-seeking based exploration entry strategy, and they need to diversify risk by selecting entry mode as a joint venture which is forming existing trend with establishing a new branch. Third, the corporations have to prepare multiple-layered risks from real assets, finance, politics, management and so on with real option grounded thought.
  First in political aspect, government should keep their eye on the economic policy uncertainty, prepare for the situations to obtain the expected effect. Second, government has to decide policies carefully by considering situational, circular factors caused by uncertainty along with duplicity of political error, reproducing problems of political error, and the attribute/degree of uncertainty. Third, government should take defensive strategy to resolve the structural risk and coordinate microscopic policy in the long term perspective. However, solving the vulnerability and retrievability problems in Korean economy, and recognizing variability phase between Korea and Turkey are the urgent priority. Also, supplementing momentum and analysing trade-off relationship based on real option approach, gradual developing of economic cooperation relationship, and preventing policy making authority from degrading prediction power are crucial. Especially, financial authorities need to examine exposers against Turkey, and monitor the cash flow. 

국문요약

제1장 서론

1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 필요성 및 독창성
3. 불확실성의 개념, 속성 및 측정
    가. 불확실성의 개념
    나. 불확실성의 속성
    다. 불확실성의 측정
4. 문제제기
    가. 지표의 모호성
    나. 주요 사건의 비(非)유의성
5. 세부 연구 구성

제2장 터키 분야별 불확실성 현황

1. 정치 불확실성 현황
    가. 최근 정치 불확실성이 CFO의 최대 관심사로 등극
    나. 2007~11년: 정의개발당의 연속 집권과 정치적 안정기
    다. 2011~15년: 정치적 불만 표출
    라. 2016년 7월 군부 쿠데타와 페툴라 귤렌(Fethullah Gulen)
2. 사회문화 불확실성 현황
    가. 높은 사회 이질성: 민족 및 문화 다양성
    나. 높은 사회갈등
3. 경제 불확실성 현황
    가. 국가신용위험 증가 추세
    나. 과거보다 한층 불안한 경제상황
4. 전반적 평가: 낙관론과 비관론

제3장 정치 불확실성

1. 선행연구 검토 및 가설
    가. 국가-사회 관계
    나. 정치갈등과 정치균열
    다. 국가 비전
    라. 정치적 모멘텀
    마. 정치 생활
2. 연구방법
    가. 연구모형
    나. 표본설계 및 변수측정
3. 분석 및 결과
    가. 인구통계학적 특성
    나. 연구모형 평가
    다. 분석 결과
    라. 강건성 분석 결과
4. 토론
    가. 시민정체성
    나. 정치변동과 국가 비전
5. 결과 요약

제4장 사회문화 불확실성 

1. 선행연구 검토 및 가설
    가. 사회 정체성 이론
    나. 연구가설
2. 연구방법
    가. 연구모형
    나. 표본설계 및 변수측정
3. 분석 결과
    가. 인구통계학적 특성
    나. 연구모형 평가
    다. 분석 결과
    라. 강건성 검증
4. 토론
5. 결과 요약

제5장 경제 불확실성

1. 선행연구 검토 및 가설
    가. (금융)시장 부문
    나. 거시경제 환경 부문
    다. 신흥시장 구조적 속성 부문
    라. 금융지표 변동성의 비대칭성에 따른 국면(레짐) 전환
2. 연구방법
    가. 연구모형
    나. 자료수집 및 변수측정
    다. 분석방법
3. 분석 결과
    가. 기술통계와 회귀분석
    나. 강건성 검증
4. 토론
    가. 경제적 분위기
    나. 금리
    다. 자본유입
    라. 터키 금융 스트레스
    마. 금융경제와 실물경제 간 레짐 의존적 관계
    바. 국면별 전환확률과 평균 지속기간
    사. 터키 경제의 국면전환 동인
5. 결과 요약

제6장 결론

1. 요약
    가. 각 장의 주요 내용 요약
    나. 미래 연구주제
2. 평가 
    가. 한국과 터키 경제 불확실성의 주성분
    나. 한?터키 경제 불확실성간 영향력 분석: 충격-반응 모형
    다. 종합: 한국에 대한 터키 경제 불확실성 충격의 주요 요소
3. 전망
    가. 불확실성 유형의 변화
    나. 자금유입 경로
    다. 정치 모멘텀, 경제 모멘텀, 사회문화 모멘텀
4. 대응
    가. 기업 차원의 대응
    나. 정부 차원의 대응

참고문헌

부록