This research studies the political economic determinants of protectionist trade policies by focusing on the role of domestic politics. The authors provide theoretical frameworks with empirical evidence, and expand discussions towards policy case studies of selected nations. This multi-dimensional approach broadens understanding on protectionist trade policy implementation of major trade partners of Korea. The authors provide implications for Korea’s policy reactions to its major trade partners.

Chapter 2 comprehensively reviews the theoretical discussions on the political economic determinants of trade policy. It includes literature on endogenous trade policy (tariff) formation theories and related empirical contributions which led researchers to construct stylized facts. Among the mechanisms reviewed in Chapter 2, Chapter 3 focuses on the median-voter approach and political support function approach in providing external validities with empirical evidence. Chapter 3 first estimates cross-country panel estimations with a sample from 141 nations from 1991 to 2019 by focusing on the tariff barriers. Estimations confirm that inequality mechanism is robustly supported by interacting with national factor endowment, while the mechanism through ideological orientation is not statistically confirmed. Chapter 3 extends discussions towards governments’ intervention on trade policies to incorporate the concept of non-tariff barriers. When the frequency of intervention is positioned as the dependent variable, the authors again confirm that the inequality channel is significantly identified.

Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 provide policy case studies by focusing on major trade partners of Korea: the United States, China, European Union, Vietnam, and Indonesia. For the United States, authors focus on the channel of lobbying, which has been the major source of interactions between policy makers and special interest. Chapter 4 analyzes firm-level and industry-level lobbying contributions of Korean special interests and draws comparisons with those from East Asian nations. For China, authors review historical developments of protectionist trade policies of the country, and how it is related to the strategic frameworks of the current Chinese administration. Chapter 4 provides case reviews on recent policies of China such as export controls on rare earths.

Moving on to the European Union, Chapter 5 estimates voter-level voting choice probabilities to identify whether individual attitudes toward climate change affect voting choice. By this estimation, the authors confirm that recent green trade barriers implemented by the European Union reflect domestic demands from voters. Individual views on climate change were a critical determinant of voting choice in recent elections. The qualitative analysis in Chapter 5 supports the findings by focusing on the European Union’s trade barriers on electric vehicles and the CBAM.

Chapter 5 expands the discussion to policy cases in Vietnam and Indonesia. An analysis is conducted on the political and economic background of anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless-steel products to protect Vietnam’s steel industry, import regulations to protect the poultry industry, and export restrictions to promote the mining industry. For Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on steel, it examines how the petitions from steel companies and the government’s intent to protect the steel industry interacted. Through interviews and literature review, Chapter 5 also investigates how Vietnam’s poultry industry protection plan and mining promotion plan were reflected in policy formulation. For Indonesia, the export restriction policy on raw minerals and resource nationalism can be understood in connection with populist agendas. Also, agricultural export and import restrictions have interdependently evolved with Indonesia’s food sovereignty discourse. Lastly, the chapter addresses the domestic background of Indonesia’s local content requirements, which posed significant challenges for South Korean companies, from the perspective of government-business interests.

Through the quantitative and qualitative analyses conducted in this study, the authors derive the following policy implications. To establish sustainable trade strategies for Korea, trade authorities must devote significant effort to understanding not only the economic constraints faced by counterpart countries but also their political constraints. This is because, in some cases, political constraints may serve as more binding restrictions than economic ones. By identifying the political and economic determinants of protectionist policies, it is possible to build a conceptual framework for forecasting and proactively addressing future protectionist measures, whether they strengthen or weaken.

To prevent Korean corporations’ lobbying activities in the United States from becoming politically biased or inadvertently delivering distorted messages to the U.S. political sphere, Korea’s trade authorities should consistently monitor these activities. This can be achieved through public channels, such as the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, or private organizations, such as the Federation of Korean Industries, and efforts should be made to ensure political balance. Furthermore, the government and private sector must share the background and context of Korean corporations’ lobbying efforts to effectively align Korea’s trade policy responses with private lobbying activities. Based on the study’s analysis of China, the authors emphasize the critical importance of Korea’s ability to interpret the actions of the United States and China through a political lens. To this end, they advocate for the establishment or expansion of specialized economic security departments and organizations within relevant ministries and the Presidential Office of Korea. Particularly, as strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, Korea must proactively leverage its increasing strategic latitude vis-à-vis China to formulate independent strategies.

Given that the European lobbying system differs structurally from its U.S. counterpart, it is necessary to reassess the current effectiveness of Korea’s communication channels with the EU. Specifically, evaluating which is the more effective channel—government-level communication or private-sector corporate communication—should guide the development of a collaborative government-private sector response manual for addressing potential escalations in EU trade barriers. In Southeast Asia, focusing on the political-economic context of protectionist measures in key countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, Korea’s trade authorities should prepare a narrative emphasizing that expanding cooperation with Korea is free from the political constraints faced by Vietnamese and Indonesian authorities. For instance, as highlighted in Chapter 5, the Korean government should revisit Vietnam’s measures on the steel and mineral industries and Indonesia’s local content requirements to refine its trade negotiation strategies.

The sectors within Vietnam and Indonesia that the authors cover in Chapter 5 are sectors in which Vietnam and Indonesia have benefited significantly from Korean firms’ local investments in terms of supply chain and value chain development. Consequently, the argument that expanding cooperation with Korea aligns with Vietnam’s and Indonesia’s industrial protection and development objectives can be substantiated with quantitative evidence. To prepare for similar measures potentially emerging in Vietnam and Indonesia, Korean research institutions should preemptively conduct studies quantifying the industrial development effects induced by Korean firms’ local investments in these countries. Such studies would enable Korea to substantiate its claims with robust empirical evidence.

국문요약

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경과 목적
2. 연구의 구성

제2장 무역정책의 정치경제적 결정요인: 이론과 실증
1. 무역정책의 정치경제적 결정요인에 관한 이론적 접근
2. 무역정책의 정치경제적 결정요인에 관한 실증적 접근

제3장 최근 동향에 관한 실증적 분석
1. 최근 각국 관세장벽의 정치경제적 결정요인에 관한 실증 분석
2. 최근 각국 대외통상조치의 정치경제적 결정요인에 관한 실증 분석

제4장 미국과 중국의 보호무역정책 사례 분석
1. 미국의 보호무역정책과 국내 정치경제
2. 중국의 보호무역정책과 국내 정치경제

제5장 유럽연합 및 아시아 주요 신흥국의 보호무역정책 사례 분석
1. 유럽연합의 보호무역정책과 역내 정치경제
2. 베트남의 보호무역정책과 국내 정치경제
3. 인도네시아의 보호무역정책과 국내 정치경제

제6장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 연구 내용 요약
2. 결론 및 정책적 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary