Using time-series and panel data from 1981 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among the three first generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs): Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the four second generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs): Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, in addition to China. We first show the difference between the first and second generation ANIEs in terms of real GDP per capita, trade structure, and inward FDI, and find some individual characters of each economy. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the seven economies. (The rest is omitted.)

Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. East and Southeast Asia in the World Economy
1. Real GDP Per Capita of the ANIEs
2. The Trade Structure of the First and Second Generation ANIEs
3. The FDI Structure of the First and Second Generation ANIEs

III. Characteristics of the Individual ANIEs Country Data

IV. Review of Theoretical Literature

V. Review of Recent Empirical Literature

VI. Analytical Framework

VII. Individual Economy's Granger Causality Test
1. Unit Root and Cointegration Tests
2. The VAR Model and Granger Causality Test

VIII. Panel Data Granger Causality Test
1. Panel Data Unit Root Tests
2. Panel Data VAR and Granger Causality Test

IX. Conclusions

References

Appendix
Appendix A. Data Sources
Appendix B. Harmonized System Categories