KIEP Staff Papers EAER(East Asian Economic Review)
발간물
Proceedings
저자 Charles E. Morrison and Marcus Noland eds. 발간번호 15-01 자료언어 English 발간일 2015.05.15
KIEP와 하와이 EWC(East-West Center)는 2014 Korea Dialogue Conference on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation 주제하에 국제세미나를 공동개최한 바 있으며, 한․중․일․미 4개국 전문가들이 모여 북태평양 지역 국가의 거시경제와 경제통합의 현황 및 전망에 대해 토론하고, 북한 이슈에 대해 논의함으로써 지역경제의 안정과 발전을 위한 다각적 협력방안을 모색하였습니다.
The conference was held on July 25, 2014 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. The key factors of the conference was to shape the economic future of the major North Pacific countries and the importance of economic cooperation among them. Major topics to be addressed were (1) the macroeconomic performances and outlooks of China, the United States, Korea, and Japan, and the interrelationship among them, (2) the emerging multilateral economic architecture and its implications, with specific reference to the TPP, the RCEP, and China-Japan-Korea free trade prospects, and (3) the future of the North Korean economy and its implications for North Pacific cooperation. The main sessions of the conference covered ‘Prospects for the region’s economies’, ‘Pathways toward trade and investment integration in the North Pacific region’, ‘Assessing economic and social change in North Korea’.
Introduction and Overview
Affiliations of the Contributors
Keynote Address
Are Mega Free Trade Agreements the Best Alternative for Advancing Global Trade Liberalization? / Cae-One Kim
Session 1 Prospects for the Region’s Economies
Assessing Macroeconomic Policies in the US in Response to the Great Recession / David J. Stockton
Introduction
Key Characteristics of the Recession and Recovery
The Response of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Prospects for US Macroeconomic Policies and the Implications for the Economy
Risks to the US Outlook and the Implications for the North Pacific Economies
Conclusions
Challenges and Opportunities in China’s Economy / Wang Yijiang
Introduction
Economic Challenges for China
New Opportunities
Concluding Remarks
Abenomics and Beyond: The Japanese Economy in the 2010s / Tokuo Iwaisako
Introduction
Brief Chronology of Abenomics
Japan’s Macroeconomic Performance under Abenomics
Potential Dangers for Abenomics
Conclusion
Prospects of the Korean Economy / Il Houng Lee and Seongman Moon
Introduction
Searching for Lost Economic Growth in Korea
Reasons for the Decline in Domestic Demand Growth
Conclusion
Commentary:
Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Discussion on Session 1 Papers / Sang-Hyop Lee
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Overview by Session Rapporteur / Michael G. Plummer
Session 2 Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a Pathway to Asian Integration / Deborah Elms
The Goal: Free-Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)
Two of Four Pathways in Play
The Launch of the TPP
Specific Benefits of the TPP: Market Access for Goods
Additional TPP Provisions
Last-Minute Shaving of Quality?
TPP Timelines
TPP Institutional Framework
Trade and Investment Diversion Coming
Circling Back to the FTAAP
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Design, Status, and Challenges / Zhang Jianping and Nie Wei
Status of RCEP Negotiations
Dilemma of RCEP Negotiations
Compared with TPP, Is RCEP More Welcomed by Developing Economies in the Asia‑Pacific Region?
Challenges of the RCEP under the Framework of Five “10+1” FTAs
General Perceptions or Concerns about FTAs in China
Implications of RCEP for FTAAP Proposals
Implications of the RCEP for the North Pacific Economies
Conclusion
China–Japan–Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK FTA): Design, Status, and Challenges / Dukgeun Ahn
State of the Play of the CJK FTA
CJK Trade and Economic Assessment Result
Mega FTA Competition and CJK FTA
Issues for Negotiation
Challenges Ahead
Commentaries:
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Comments / Kiyoun Sohn
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Discussion of Papers Presented in Session 2 / Michael G. Plummer
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Overview by Session 2 Rapporteur / Theresa M. Greaney
Session 3 Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea
Can North Korea Follow China’s Path of Reform and Open Door Policy? / Zhou Huji
China’s National Security, the Transformation of Political Concept and Open Door Policy
Kim Jong Il’s Political Ideas and Survival Strategy
“Songun Politics”: One of the Political Survival Strategies
Improved Leader Worship: One of the Political Survival Strategies
“7.1 Measures”: Economic Survival Strategies
Nuclear Development and Asymmetric Dampening: International Survival Strategy
Survival and Emerging from the Crisis: Conclusion and Discussion
Economic Developments in North Korea / Marcus Nolan
Introduction
Internal Developments
External Relations
Illicit Activities
Conclusions
The Current Situation and Future Prospects of the North Korean Economy / Dongho Jo
Introduction
The Current Situation
The Reaction of the North Korean Leadership
The Future Prospects
Commentaries:
Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Hyung-Gon Jeong
Assessing the Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Nicholas Eberstadt
Report of the Session Rapporteur:
Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Overview by Session 3 Rapporteur / Anjali Nath
Roundtable Discussion on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
North Pacific Integration from an International Financial Perspective / Hiroyuki Ito
Introduction
Interest Rates Linkages and Their Implications on Monetary Policy Management
“Internationalization” of the Renminbi
Conclusion
Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Tokuo Iwaisako
Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Jong Seok Kim
“The Asian Paradox”
The Limits of Bilateral Talks
The Need for Multilateral Dialogs
Soft Issues
Harmony in Diversity
Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / David J. Stockton
The Global Influences of Half of the World: Comments on North Pacific Cooperation / Wang Yijiang
Report of the Session Rapporteur
Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation: Overview by Roundtable Rapporteur / Duyen Bui
Conference Program
Program
List of Participants
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