Previously discussions about Africa focused on its resources. However, recent interests are shifting towards Africa’s growth potential as a consumer market. The combination of a billion people, impressive economic growth, a growing middle class, urbanization and increase of purchasing power has transformed Africa into a rising consumer market. Many recent reports by various business consulting firms emphasize that the most strategic investment opportunity in the long run lies in pursuing Africa’s middle income class and not in resource development. Although the overall majority of Africans yet live in absolute poverty, the consumer market is growing as the urban population who have sufficient purchasing power continues to expand. A growing number of large-scale shopping malls and supermarkets are moving into Africa’s major cities and they are being stockpiled with processed agricultural products, household goods, computers, household electronics and many kinds of manufactured products. However, for Korea, the market remains difficult to access because Africa is not only geographically distant but also because poor physical and institutional trade infrastructure in Africa limits traditional export means.

  Keeping mind of such problems, this research explores potential means of accessing Africa’s consumer market through industrial zones. The major contents discussed in each chapter are as follows. 

  Chapter 2 reviews contributing factors to Africa’s consumer market growth from economic and demographic perspectives while also outlining current consumption patterns, trends and development of distribution channels. Although the middle income group who have sufficient purchasing capacities remains small in size, it is growing at a fast pace around urban areas. Consequently, around two thirds of African households are prospected to have certain discretionary income by 2025. 

  Chapter 3 looks at the key characteristics of the African consumer market from a supply and demand logic. Various media outlets and reports have highlighted the growing size of the African consumer market. However, looking at the size alone is a convenient and arbitrary way of viewing the African continent as a single market, which is far from the truth. In this chapter, we analyze the African market through an objective and empirical method. One main feature of the African consumer market is fragmentation where poor traffic networks limit the trade of goods, services and labor. Borders that surround landlocked countries also hinder trade with regional and international markets. The lack of infrastructure in general hampers labor movement beyond a 10km radius. Another feature of the African consumer market is the accelerating market penetration of Chinese goods. Cheap Chinese products can be found not only in urban areas but also rural areas. The range of products cover a wide spectrum, including clothing, shoes, socks, plastics, agricultural machinery, household electronics, mobile phone, construction materials, stationery and others. Moreover, due to the underdevelopment of manufacturing infrastructure, Africa depends heavily on imports of processed goods. Import dependency is over 30% for food and beverages while surpassing 60% for technology intensive goods such as cars and chemical products. 

  Furthermore, this research estimated the national and regional population for different consumer classes. Results indicate that the potential consumer class for main durable goods in sub-Saharan Africa will expand by around 40% until 2025. The consumer class that is able to purchase a certain amount of durable goods will increase by over 4% every year. This growth will be led by eastern Africa (approx. 7.1-7.6%) and western Africa (approx. 3.5-3.7%). 

  To be more specific, the national and regional potential consumer class size for 48 countries in Africa were estimated using the CANBACK C-GIDD and resources on the size of consumer classes that possess vehicles (IRF) and cellphones (ITU), two typical durable goods that Korea exports. 

  First, the research constructed a functional relation between per capita income and vehicle or mobile phone ownership rate globally. With this function, a demand curve was calculated for vehicles and mobile phones in relation to the income level. Using the Lorentz curve estimated using the CANBACK C-GIDD resource, calculated the potential consumer class size for vehicles and mobile phones for each country in Africa was calculated. 

  Around a billion people will have enough income to purchase vehicles in 2025, with this number rising to 6.8 billion for mobile phones. On a regional scale, western Africa, with the largest population, and eastern Africa, with the highest economic growth rate, will surpass southern Africa (including South Africa) soon in terms of market size. 

  This research takes a step further from established research on the African middle income class, which generated the initial boom of interest on the rising consumer class of Africa, and estimates the consumer class size of those able to purchase vehicles and mobile phones, the main export items of Korea. It sought to define the consumer class as those able to purchase specific items, rather than the general 'middle income' group, i.e. people who earn income between ad-hoc upper and lower income cutoffs. While previous studies review only a few countries with sufficient data or rely on qualitative analysis, the contribution of this research lies in the utilization of all available data amidst the lack of data on Africa in evaluating purchasing powers and constructing the potential consumer class size. However, one must take into consideration that this research method assumes African consumers to have the same preference for goods as global average consumers and that the final results estimate the population size of those with purchasing power above a certain income level, not the size of those who have actually purchased or are willing to purchase vehicles or mobile phones. 

  Chapter 4 explains the necessities and reasons for utilizing industrial zones as a means to engage with the African consumer market. Developing or utilizing industrial zones as a means to enter the African consumer market is important in that it enables the production and sales of products that fit the needs and tastes of local markets. The African consumer market differs greatly from other developing countries in terms of purchasing power, consuming culture and various other aspects. One of the expected positive outcomes of utilizing industrial zones is the access of regional markets through various economic unions. Direct investment in Africa through industrial zones can lower the high entry barrier as African economic blocs have formed FTAs and customs unions that demand high tariffs from overseas imports. Another expected outcome is the ability to access advanced countries by utilizing preferential trade agreements arranged between Africa and the US or EU. 

  The highlight of this research unfolds in chapter 5 where strategic measures for using industrial zones as an effective means of entering the African consumer market is described. The process used to determine specific countries of engagement was based on a quantitative analysis using numerous evaluation standards and indexes that reflected the evaluation. The opinions of an advisory group were also taken into consideration. The outputs of this qualitative method were graded and combined with the quantitative research outcomes in determining priority countries or suitable countries. One major feature of the outcome showed that eastern African countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya were located in the high ranking category. Reasons for this outcome include the relative political stability, relocation of the economic growth axis from western African to eastern Africa, favorable investment conditions, and status of economic cooperation with Korea. Another reason would be the level of trade within the region. Amongst all regional economic blocs in Africa, the East African Community (EAC) shows the highest level of intra-trade. The total volume of intra-trade grew by almost five times, from 500 million USD in 2000 to 2.3 billion USD in 2015. On an individual country basis, results indicated Ethiopia as the most suitable location for entry through industrial zones. Although Ethiopia remains as one of the least developed countries in Africa, its economic development has been most outstanding. Ethiopia has sustained its economic growth rate at over 10% for the past 10 years. It also has the second largest population in Africa and has completed a railroad connection between Addis Ababa (its capital city) and Djibouti (the logistics hub of the Mediterranean). According to some evaluations Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, resembles Shanghai in the year 1987. Ethiopia’s low wages are an advantage. The wage levels of unskilled labor in the manufacturing (light industry) sector is a fifth of China, a third of Vietnam, and 30% lower than that of Tanzania. Wage levels are of great significance when considering investment in Africa. 

  To determine promising sectors that could be produced in the industrial zones, the study applied Product Space Analysis, a quantitative analysis tool introduced by R. Hausmann and used by other development economists to diagnose the national economy or industrial structure. Product Space Analysis views each product as an aggregation of production knowledge. The method assigns a numerical value to each country as the level of scarcity of knowledge that the country has to produce or export goods, which is called 'economic complexity'. Likewise, it also quantifies the 'product complexity' for each industry and sector with the economic complexity of the country that produces and the product complexity of relevant industries. With the two indexes, one can formulate an effective strategy that maximizes the economic complexity most relevant to the economic growth of developing countries and thus determine strategic industries or sectors. While the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis, frequently used in literatures, and other trade indicator analyses approach trade patterns in a static manner, Product Space Analysis differs in that it seeks to complement the static limitations with each country’s sectoral potential by using statistical probabilities. 

  Short-term strategic items and long-term strategic items were selected for each country using the 2014 BACI trade data for 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia, South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya and Senegal. In particular, strategic items were selected according to the ranking outcomes of products based on the short-term strategic index and long-term strategic index. The indexes were calculated as weighted sums of the opportunity gains, the technical distance between a country and item, and the product complexity index for each item. To identify items where Korean companies have competitiveness amongst the strategic items, we selected items that Korea has revealed comparative advantages in.

  As the economic complexity indexes were low for most of the countries analyzed in the research, indicating similar opportunity gains from each product, the long-term strategic items were similar for the countries. Machinery, chemical products, metal products were amongst the top ranking items, and Korea has a competitive advantage in most items. 

  Low-level manufacturing products related to agricultural and mineral goods were commonly found in the top ranks for short-term items. On the other hand, textile and clothing items appeared in the high rank for eastern African countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Madagascar. However, Korean companies rarely exported the most short-term strategic items directly, and thus the export competitiveness for Korea at this point in time was low. 

  The selection of potential items that could utilize industrial zones through the Product Space Analysis is meaningful in that it considers local consumption demands, the national or regional economic development strategies and the competitiveness of Korean firms in a complex manner. However, as this research deals with a vast number of countries and areas, potential local consumption demands such as regional market conditions and overseas market expansion conditions must be reflected for specific items to be able to identify more detailed potential items for each country or region. 

  Although this research suggests utilizing industrial zones as a strategic means of approaching the African consumer market, it is regrettable that the policy recommendations are theoretical. However, this research is a pioneer work in examining engagement with the African consumer market through industrial zones and we look forward to further research on this topic. 

서언

국문요약

제1장 머리말
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구 방법 및 구성ㆍ범위
3. 연구 의의 및 한계

제2장 아프리카 소비시장의 성장 배경 및 현황
1. 아프리카 소비시장의 성장 배경
가. 경제성장과 소득 증가
나. 인구 증가
다. 도시화
2. 아프리카 소비시장의 현황
가. 소득계층별 주요 소비 분야
나. 소비 트렌드의 변화
다. 유통시장의 발달

제3장 아프리카 소비시장의 특징 분석
1. 시장의 분절화: 경제교류의 단절성
2. 중국 상품의 시장침투 가속화
3. 공산품의 높은 수입 의존도: 열악한 제조업 기반
4. 동서 연안지역 주도의 소비계층 성장: 잠재적 소비계층 규모 추정 결과
가. 방법론
나. 추정 결과

제4장 아프리카 소비시장 진출수단으로서 산업단지 활용 의의
1.산업단지를 통한 아프리카 소비시장 진출의 필요성: 왜 산업단지인가
2. 아프리카 역내 경제통합체 활용
가. 경제통합체 현황
나. 역내교역 현황
3. 선진국의 무역특혜 활용
가. 미국
나. 유럽
4. 아프리카 산업화에 기여
가. 민간부문개발(PSD)
나. 산업기술인력 양성

제5장 아프리카 산업단지 진출의 전략적 추진방안
1. 아프리카 산업단지 현황 및 평가
가. 아프리카 산업단지 현황
나. 아프리카 산업단지 평가
2. 전략지역 진출: 산업단지 진출 중점국가 선정
가. 중점국가 선정기준(평가지표)
나. 중점국가 선정 결과
3. 진출유망분야(품목) 도출: 제품공간분석 방법 적용
가. 분석방법론
    1) 분석의 범위
    2) 주요 분석지표
나. 분석 결과
4. 아프리카 산업단지 진출의 주요 고려요인

제6장 맺음말

참고문헌

Executive Summary