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자유무역협정(FTA)이란 경제통합의 한 형태로, 체약국간에 실질적으로 모든 교역에 있어서 관세 및 기타 비관세 장벽들을 제거하는 것으로 정의할 수 있다. 또한 동 자유무역협정의 효과로는 체약국간의 무역장벽 철폐로 인한 역내교역증대효과(무역창출효과)와 기존 제3국과의 교역이 체약국과의 교역으로 전환되는 무역전환효과가 있으며, 투자의 자유화로 인한 직접투자 증대 효과 등이 있다.
한국은 최근 세계적인 지역주의의 심화·확대 흐름속에서 안정적인 수출시장 확보 및 투자유인 효과를 증대하고 경제적 이해관계 공유를 통한 정치적 동반자 관계 형성을 위하여 FTA를 대외경제정책 수단의 하나로 활용하게 되었다. 또한 한국의 첫 FTA대상국으로서 칠레를 선정하였는 바, 그 이유에 대해서는 다음과 같은 점들이 주로 거론되고 있다. 우선 칠레는 원·부자재 위주로 수출함으로써 산업구조가 한국과 보완적이다. 또한 칠레는 중남미 대부분의 국가 및 캐나다, 멕시코 등과 FTA를 체결하여 지역거점으로 활용가능성이 매우 높으며, 한국은 칠레의 FTA 체결경험을 흡수할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 한편, 칠레는 농산물 수출국가이긴 하나 주로 일부 과일류에서만 경쟁력을 가지고 있기 때문에 취약산업인 한국 농업에 미칠 영향이 크지 않으며, 더욱이 칠레가 적극적으로 한국과 FTA 체결을 희망하고 있다.
한편, 칠레와 FTA 협상을 성공적으로 타결하여 FTA가 발효할 경우, 한국경제에는 상당한 이익이 있을 것으로 기대된다. 韓·칠레 FTA로 인한 연간 후생수준 증가액은 약 9억 6,000만 달러가 되는 것으로 추산된다. 양국간 FTA로 가장 큰 혜택을 보게 될 품목은 자동차, 가전제품 등이 될 것으로 보이며, 반면 수입증가율이 가장 높게 나타나게 될 품목으로는 구리 및 구리 가공제품 등이 될 것으로 추정된다. 또한 한국의 취약산업인 농림수산업에 대한 영향은 전반적으로 그리 크지 않을 것으로 보인다. 또한 주요 FTA의 양허내용을 분석해 본 결과, 협정체결국들은 취약 품목에 대해서는 양국의 산업별 경쟁력등을 감안하여 자유화 예외로 설정하는 등 다양한 상품그룹으로 구분하여 자유화를 시행하는 것으로 나타났다.
이러한 연구결과를 토대로 동 FTA의 추진과 관련하여 몇가지 정책시사점을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국의 경우 자유무역협정이나 무역자유화에 대한 인식이 부족한 면이 있으므로 대국민 홍보를 강화할 필요가 있다. 예를 들면, 일반 국민들 사이에 무역자유화는 단순히 수입증가만을 초래한다든가, FTA의 발효와 동시에 전 품목이 무관세화 되어 단기간에 높은 구조조정의 비용이 소요될 것이라는 막연한 우려가 팽배해 있다는 점을 들 수 있다. 그리고 역외국에는 배타적인 반면 역내국간에는 상호특혜적인 개방의 특성을 제대로 이해하지 못하여, 이를 일방적 무역자유화(unilateral liberalization)로 인식하는 경우도 적지 않다. 또한 개방에 따른 문제점은 강조되는 대신 개방에 따른 이익은 과소평가되고, 경제적 대국과의 FTA를 경제적 예속으로 인식하는 등의 문제점이 있다. 또한 지역주의를 한국이 취할 수 있는 통상정책수단의 한가지 방안으로 적극 활용하기 위해서는 무엇보다 현재 추진중인 韓·칠레 FTA 협상을 조기에 타결하여야 할 것이다. 한국의 제조업은 韓·칠레 FTA에 대해 적극적인 입장을 보이는 반면, 농업과 수산업 등 취약산업은 동 FTA하의 시장접근에서 특수한 입장이 반영되기를 희망하고 있으나, 극히 민감한 품목을 제외한 대부분의 품목을 자유화의 대상에 포함시킴으로써 FTA의 기본정신이 훼손되지 않게 해야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한 극히 민감한 품목에 대해서는 ① 관세철폐 예외품목 설정, ② 장기적인 관세철폐 이행기간 확보, ③ 관세철폐 유예기간의 도입 등으로 해당 산업에 미치는 충격을 완화하는 방안을 모색할 필요가 있다.
한국은 최근 세계적인 지역주의의 심화·확대 흐름속에서 안정적인 수출시장 확보 및 투자유인 효과를 증대하고 경제적 이해관계 공유를 통한 정치적 동반자 관계 형성을 위하여 FTA를 대외경제정책 수단의 하나로 활용하게 되었다. 또한 한국의 첫 FTA대상국으로서 칠레를 선정하였는 바, 그 이유에 대해서는 다음과 같은 점들이 주로 거론되고 있다. 우선 칠레는 원·부자재 위주로 수출함으로써 산업구조가 한국과 보완적이다. 또한 칠레는 중남미 대부분의 국가 및 캐나다, 멕시코 등과 FTA를 체결하여 지역거점으로 활용가능성이 매우 높으며, 한국은 칠레의 FTA 체결경험을 흡수할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 한편, 칠레는 농산물 수출국가이긴 하나 주로 일부 과일류에서만 경쟁력을 가지고 있기 때문에 취약산업인 한국 농업에 미칠 영향이 크지 않으며, 더욱이 칠레가 적극적으로 한국과 FTA 체결을 희망하고 있다.
한편, 칠레와 FTA 협상을 성공적으로 타결하여 FTA가 발효할 경우, 한국경제에는 상당한 이익이 있을 것으로 기대된다. 韓·칠레 FTA로 인한 연간 후생수준 증가액은 약 9억 6,000만 달러가 되는 것으로 추산된다. 양국간 FTA로 가장 큰 혜택을 보게 될 품목은 자동차, 가전제품 등이 될 것으로 보이며, 반면 수입증가율이 가장 높게 나타나게 될 품목으로는 구리 및 구리 가공제품 등이 될 것으로 추정된다. 또한 한국의 취약산업인 농림수산업에 대한 영향은 전반적으로 그리 크지 않을 것으로 보인다. 또한 주요 FTA의 양허내용을 분석해 본 결과, 협정체결국들은 취약 품목에 대해서는 양국의 산업별 경쟁력등을 감안하여 자유화 예외로 설정하는 등 다양한 상품그룹으로 구분하여 자유화를 시행하는 것으로 나타났다.
이러한 연구결과를 토대로 동 FTA의 추진과 관련하여 몇가지 정책시사점을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국의 경우 자유무역협정이나 무역자유화에 대한 인식이 부족한 면이 있으므로 대국민 홍보를 강화할 필요가 있다. 예를 들면, 일반 국민들 사이에 무역자유화는 단순히 수입증가만을 초래한다든가, FTA의 발효와 동시에 전 품목이 무관세화 되어 단기간에 높은 구조조정의 비용이 소요될 것이라는 막연한 우려가 팽배해 있다는 점을 들 수 있다. 그리고 역외국에는 배타적인 반면 역내국간에는 상호특혜적인 개방의 특성을 제대로 이해하지 못하여, 이를 일방적 무역자유화(unilateral liberalization)로 인식하는 경우도 적지 않다. 또한 개방에 따른 문제점은 강조되는 대신 개방에 따른 이익은 과소평가되고, 경제적 대국과의 FTA를 경제적 예속으로 인식하는 등의 문제점이 있다. 또한 지역주의를 한국이 취할 수 있는 통상정책수단의 한가지 방안으로 적극 활용하기 위해서는 무엇보다 현재 추진중인 韓·칠레 FTA 협상을 조기에 타결하여야 할 것이다. 한국의 제조업은 韓·칠레 FTA에 대해 적극적인 입장을 보이는 반면, 농업과 수산업 등 취약산업은 동 FTA하의 시장접근에서 특수한 입장이 반영되기를 희망하고 있으나, 극히 민감한 품목을 제외한 대부분의 품목을 자유화의 대상에 포함시킴으로써 FTA의 기본정신이 훼손되지 않게 해야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한 극히 민감한 품목에 대해서는 ① 관세철폐 예외품목 설정, ② 장기적인 관세철폐 이행기간 확보, ③ 관세철폐 유예기간의 도입 등으로 해당 산업에 미치는 충격을 완화하는 방안을 모색할 필요가 있다.
Korea-Chile FTA: Background, Economic Effects and Policy Implications Inkyo Cheong and Kyounghee Lee
Though Korea achieved economic growth under the multilateral system of the GATT/WTO, its reaction to a widening spread and deepening of regional trading blocs has been lukewarm, due to domestic opposition to market opening under regional trading agreements. However, since the financial crisis began, the Korean government has been reevaluating the potential gains to be made by removing trade barriers on a preferential basis, and has decided to pursue the establishment of preferential trading blocs.
Regionalism is one of the most dominant trends in the world economy today. In line with this increasing trend towards regional integration, Korea has altered its past position opposing regional trade blocs and is now cautiously investigating the establishment of FTAs with major trading countries. Koreas new trade policy is aimed at promptly adapting to the changing economic environment, as well as resolving the countrys economic difficulties.
Consequently, an ultimate goal of this policy is to transform Korea into an open trading country, which makes a meaningful contribution to opening up the world economy at the international level, while at the national level the government remains committed to opening its market through parallel development of democracy and a market economy.
In addition, it is recognized that the supplier-oriented trade policy of the past must be changed into a consumer-oriented policy that maximizes the convenience and benefits of the general public. In terms of cost-efficiency, the publics well-being is better served when the majority of consumers can be supplied with low-cost and high-quality goods rather than defending the interests of a minority of producers. Therefore, the government must perform the role of opening up the domestic market, so that its people can enjoy an abundance of low-cost and high-quality goods and services.
This liberalization has been viewed as beneficial by most Koreans, and there is a growing perception that the establishment of FTAs with major trading partners will bring greater welfare gains. Moreover, Korea has recognized the importance of stable export markets; it is thought that the current account deficit that preceded the financial crisis resulted in worsening international confidence in the Korean economy. Another important background factor in the current trend towards regionalism can be found in trade policy makers recognition of the necessity of upgrading Koreas economic system to meet international standards.
Korea chose Chile as its first FTA partner because of high complementarity in trade structure and learning effects from Chiles plentiful experience in regional trading agreements, while Chile chose Korea because Chile highly valued Koreas close linkage with neighboring Asian countries (Chile can take advantage of Koreas trade linkage for widening Chiles market access to other Asian countries), as well as Koreas growth potential through performing strong reforms in several sectors including financial sector.
Cheong (1999) analyzed the economic effect of the potential FTA between Chile and Korea by using a CGE model. The CGE model is a general equilibrium model that has the advantage of determining the re-allocation effects of the resources caused by the cross-sectoral reallocation of production factors, which the partial equilibrium is not able to deal with.
Korea is expected to gain more benefit from the tariff elimination between the two countries. For example, preferential tariffs imposed by Chile on Canadian and Mexican exports through the FTA between two countries are now acting as main barriers for Koreas export products such as automobiles and tire that are highly competitive with those products. In this regard, the conclusion of a Korea-Chile FTA will provide Korean products with price competitiveness, enabling them to better compete with other countries in Chilean market. This inference can be supported in the Mexicos case, which has an industrial structure similar to Korea, taking as an example of the MexicoChile FTA.
Mexican exports to Chile were jumped from 180 million dollars in 1992 to 930 million dollars in 1996. Korea is also expected to enjoy similar level of export expansion effect, if Korea establishes an FTA with Chile. According to authors calculation, the FTA seems to result in Koreas welfare improvement of 960 million dollars. This result, however, does not consider service trade effect and market expansion effect. The actual improvement is expected to be even greater if we include them.
Among Koreas export sectors, some competitive sectors with greater market share in Chile will be particularly benefited from a Korea-Chile FTA. They are automobiles (occupying 18% in Chilean import market), refrigerator (31%), microwave oven (69%), washing machine (65%), tire and automobile battery, textile, elevator and PVC.
As for Korea, among the manufacturing sectors, the copper processing industry will be mostly affected as imports of copper and related products from Chile will increase with the establishment of a Korea-Chile FTA. This is because Chilean copper is leading the first position in the world in terms of exploitable reserves, production and exports volume. The mining sector is the most important and competitive sector in Chilean economy, accounting for more than one half of global exports.
One of the main reasons why Korea selected Chile as its first FTA partner is that the negative economic effect will not be so great on Korea agricultural sector. Agricultural imports from Chile was only 26 million dollars in 1997, 6 million dollars in 1998 and 15 million dollars in 1999, accounting for only 0.09% and 0.22% of Koreas total agricultural imports, respectively.
In Korea, main agricultural imports from Chile are confined to some fruits such as fresh grape, kiwi and tomato paste. As for grapes, however, Chiles marketing season is very different from Koreas due to the reverse geographical location (South and North Hemisphere).
Korean government, in any way, should take a deliberate stance against the potential industrial damage on sensitive sectors by carefully examining economic effect of a Korea-Chile FTA. To minimize severe restructuring cost, Korea can also consider the partial exclusion of the most affected sectors from the FTA or demand the provision of transition period for the sensitive sectors.
The government officially decided to negotiate an FTA with Chile in December 1999 and currently, the two economies finished the 4th round of negotiations December 2000. The successful conclusion of the first FTA will be of special importance for Korea because other potential FTAs will heavily depend on the first model. Most likely, negotiations will last one to two years. However, talks regarding sensitive areas of trade could potentially prolong the conclusion of the negotiations. Korea's manufacturing sector favors a Korea-Chile FTA, as most of Korea's exports to Chile consist of such manufactured goods as automobiles and electronic goods, while the agricultural sector, fearing an increase of such Chilean exports as grapes and kiwi, and the fisheries industry are deeply concerned about a Korea-Chile FTA.
Beyond the sensitive nature of various trade items, there are a number of other issues of concern surrounding Korea's FTA policy. The first issue to be considered is the need for public awareness for the potential benefits of preferential FTAs. One of main obstacles to gaining consensus for pursuing FTAs is the lack of public knowledge or a negative attitude towards trade liberalization. Most people think that trade liberalization will only contribute to the growth of imports. Some fear that the complete elimination of tariffs will be applied as soon as an FTA comes into effect, thereby requiring huge adjustment costs in some sensitive sectors in the short-term.
The drawbacks of trade liberalization are usually exaggerated, while the benefits are often underestimated. Some even consider that an FTA with large economies will be a form of economic subordination. Therefore, the government should strengthen the publicity activities on the pros and cons of preferential trade liberalization.
The second issue is the harmonization of multilateralism and regionalism. As discussed earlier, Korea has been one of the most active supporters of the GATT/WTO system. Developing countries such as Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, have benefited from the more liberalized global trading environment under the present multilateral system. The significance of free trade under the multilateral system will not be diminished, even Korea pursues the conclusion of FTAs. The government should continue to take full advantage of the WTO, with actively participating in the framework-building processes of international trade organizations, including the WTO and the OECD, to ensure that trade rules are fair and favorable to weaker countries.
Though Korea achieved economic growth under the multilateral system of the GATT/WTO, its reaction to a widening spread and deepening of regional trading blocs has been lukewarm, due to domestic opposition to market opening under regional trading agreements. However, since the financial crisis began, the Korean government has been reevaluating the potential gains to be made by removing trade barriers on a preferential basis, and has decided to pursue the establishment of preferential trading blocs.
Regionalism is one of the most dominant trends in the world economy today. In line with this increasing trend towards regional integration, Korea has altered its past position opposing regional trade blocs and is now cautiously investigating the establishment of FTAs with major trading countries. Koreas new trade policy is aimed at promptly adapting to the changing economic environment, as well as resolving the countrys economic difficulties.
Consequently, an ultimate goal of this policy is to transform Korea into an open trading country, which makes a meaningful contribution to opening up the world economy at the international level, while at the national level the government remains committed to opening its market through parallel development of democracy and a market economy.
In addition, it is recognized that the supplier-oriented trade policy of the past must be changed into a consumer-oriented policy that maximizes the convenience and benefits of the general public. In terms of cost-efficiency, the publics well-being is better served when the majority of consumers can be supplied with low-cost and high-quality goods rather than defending the interests of a minority of producers. Therefore, the government must perform the role of opening up the domestic market, so that its people can enjoy an abundance of low-cost and high-quality goods and services.
This liberalization has been viewed as beneficial by most Koreans, and there is a growing perception that the establishment of FTAs with major trading partners will bring greater welfare gains. Moreover, Korea has recognized the importance of stable export markets; it is thought that the current account deficit that preceded the financial crisis resulted in worsening international confidence in the Korean economy. Another important background factor in the current trend towards regionalism can be found in trade policy makers recognition of the necessity of upgrading Koreas economic system to meet international standards.
Korea chose Chile as its first FTA partner because of high complementarity in trade structure and learning effects from Chiles plentiful experience in regional trading agreements, while Chile chose Korea because Chile highly valued Koreas close linkage with neighboring Asian countries (Chile can take advantage of Koreas trade linkage for widening Chiles market access to other Asian countries), as well as Koreas growth potential through performing strong reforms in several sectors including financial sector.
Cheong (1999) analyzed the economic effect of the potential FTA between Chile and Korea by using a CGE model. The CGE model is a general equilibrium model that has the advantage of determining the re-allocation effects of the resources caused by the cross-sectoral reallocation of production factors, which the partial equilibrium is not able to deal with.
Korea is expected to gain more benefit from the tariff elimination between the two countries. For example, preferential tariffs imposed by Chile on Canadian and Mexican exports through the FTA between two countries are now acting as main barriers for Koreas export products such as automobiles and tire that are highly competitive with those products. In this regard, the conclusion of a Korea-Chile FTA will provide Korean products with price competitiveness, enabling them to better compete with other countries in Chilean market. This inference can be supported in the Mexicos case, which has an industrial structure similar to Korea, taking as an example of the MexicoChile FTA.
Mexican exports to Chile were jumped from 180 million dollars in 1992 to 930 million dollars in 1996. Korea is also expected to enjoy similar level of export expansion effect, if Korea establishes an FTA with Chile. According to authors calculation, the FTA seems to result in Koreas welfare improvement of 960 million dollars. This result, however, does not consider service trade effect and market expansion effect. The actual improvement is expected to be even greater if we include them.
Among Koreas export sectors, some competitive sectors with greater market share in Chile will be particularly benefited from a Korea-Chile FTA. They are automobiles (occupying 18% in Chilean import market), refrigerator (31%), microwave oven (69%), washing machine (65%), tire and automobile battery, textile, elevator and PVC.
As for Korea, among the manufacturing sectors, the copper processing industry will be mostly affected as imports of copper and related products from Chile will increase with the establishment of a Korea-Chile FTA. This is because Chilean copper is leading the first position in the world in terms of exploitable reserves, production and exports volume. The mining sector is the most important and competitive sector in Chilean economy, accounting for more than one half of global exports.
One of the main reasons why Korea selected Chile as its first FTA partner is that the negative economic effect will not be so great on Korea agricultural sector. Agricultural imports from Chile was only 26 million dollars in 1997, 6 million dollars in 1998 and 15 million dollars in 1999, accounting for only 0.09% and 0.22% of Koreas total agricultural imports, respectively.
In Korea, main agricultural imports from Chile are confined to some fruits such as fresh grape, kiwi and tomato paste. As for grapes, however, Chiles marketing season is very different from Koreas due to the reverse geographical location (South and North Hemisphere).
Korean government, in any way, should take a deliberate stance against the potential industrial damage on sensitive sectors by carefully examining economic effect of a Korea-Chile FTA. To minimize severe restructuring cost, Korea can also consider the partial exclusion of the most affected sectors from the FTA or demand the provision of transition period for the sensitive sectors.
The government officially decided to negotiate an FTA with Chile in December 1999 and currently, the two economies finished the 4th round of negotiations December 2000. The successful conclusion of the first FTA will be of special importance for Korea because other potential FTAs will heavily depend on the first model. Most likely, negotiations will last one to two years. However, talks regarding sensitive areas of trade could potentially prolong the conclusion of the negotiations. Korea's manufacturing sector favors a Korea-Chile FTA, as most of Korea's exports to Chile consist of such manufactured goods as automobiles and electronic goods, while the agricultural sector, fearing an increase of such Chilean exports as grapes and kiwi, and the fisheries industry are deeply concerned about a Korea-Chile FTA.
Beyond the sensitive nature of various trade items, there are a number of other issues of concern surrounding Korea's FTA policy. The first issue to be considered is the need for public awareness for the potential benefits of preferential FTAs. One of main obstacles to gaining consensus for pursuing FTAs is the lack of public knowledge or a negative attitude towards trade liberalization. Most people think that trade liberalization will only contribute to the growth of imports. Some fear that the complete elimination of tariffs will be applied as soon as an FTA comes into effect, thereby requiring huge adjustment costs in some sensitive sectors in the short-term.
The drawbacks of trade liberalization are usually exaggerated, while the benefits are often underestimated. Some even consider that an FTA with large economies will be a form of economic subordination. Therefore, the government should strengthen the publicity activities on the pros and cons of preferential trade liberalization.
The second issue is the harmonization of multilateralism and regionalism. As discussed earlier, Korea has been one of the most active supporters of the GATT/WTO system. Developing countries such as Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, have benefited from the more liberalized global trading environment under the present multilateral system. The significance of free trade under the multilateral system will not be diminished, even Korea pursues the conclusion of FTAs. The government should continue to take full advantage of the WTO, with actively participating in the framework-building processes of international trade organizations, including the WTO and the OECD, to ensure that trade rules are fair and favorable to weaker countries.
서언
국문요약
제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법
제2장 자유무역협정(FTA)과 한국의 FTA정책 추진 배경
1. 자유무역협정(FTA)의 개관
2. 한국의 FTA정책 추진 배경
제3장 韓-칠레 FTA 추진의 배경
1. 한국의 첫 FTA체결국으로서의 '칠레' 선정 이유
2. 칠레의 통상정책과 지역무역협정 추진 현황
3. 칠레의 경제개황 및 산업/무역 구조
4. 한국-칠레간 경제관계
제4장 韓-칠레 FTA의 경제적 효과
1. 전반적인 효과
2. 제조업에 대한 영향
3. 농림수산업에 대한 영향
4. 기타 부분에 대한 영향
제5장 칠레의 주요 FTA 양허내용과 韓-칠레 FIA에 대한 시사점
1, 칠레가 체결한 주요 자유무역협정(FTA)의 양허내용
2. 韓-칠레 FTA에 대한 시사점
제6장 연구결과 요약 및 정책시사점
1, 연구결과 요약
2. 정책시사점
참고문헌
국문요약
제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법
제2장 자유무역협정(FTA)과 한국의 FTA정책 추진 배경
1. 자유무역협정(FTA)의 개관
2. 한국의 FTA정책 추진 배경
제3장 韓-칠레 FTA 추진의 배경
1. 한국의 첫 FTA체결국으로서의 '칠레' 선정 이유
2. 칠레의 통상정책과 지역무역협정 추진 현황
3. 칠레의 경제개황 및 산업/무역 구조
4. 한국-칠레간 경제관계
제4장 韓-칠레 FTA의 경제적 효과
1. 전반적인 효과
2. 제조업에 대한 영향
3. 농림수산업에 대한 영향
4. 기타 부분에 대한 영향
제5장 칠레의 주요 FTA 양허내용과 韓-칠레 FIA에 대한 시사점
1, 칠레가 체결한 주요 자유무역협정(FTA)의 양허내용
2. 韓-칠레 FTA에 대한 시사점
제6장 연구결과 요약 및 정책시사점
1, 연구결과 요약
2. 정책시사점
참고문헌
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