발간물
전체보고서
저자 KIEP 자료언어 English 발간일 2014.12.19
이 책자는 이런 견지에서 ‘통일한국의 동북아 경제협력 연구’ 프로젝트로 수행한 7편의 연구를 묶은 요약집이다. 그 핵심내용은 주변 4강인 미국·중국·일본·러시아의 관점에서 본 한반도 통일의 편익비용 분석, 그리고 한반도 관점에서 본 남북한 경제통합 효과와 통일의 외교안보편익 분석이다.
세계는 상호 긴밀하게 연계되어 있기 때문에 남북통일의 파급효과도 당연히 주변국에 미치게 될 것이다. 그런 점에서 주변 4강의 통일연구는 한반도 전문가 열두 명이 자국의 시각에서 남북통일이 가져다줄 편익을 분석하고, 이를 극대화하기 위한 정책방향을 제시했다는 점에서 큰 의미가 있다. 아울러 국내전문가 열한 명이 경제통합 효과와 외교안보편익 분석을 바탕으로 남북 경제통합 및 동북아 협력방안을 제시한 3편의 연구도 그 가치가 자못 크다 하겠다.
4개국 연구를 종합해 보면, 향후 남북관계는 현 상태 유지, 북한의 개혁개방, 흡수통일, 평화통일의 4가지 시나리오를 상정할 수 있다. 그 가운데 대다수 국가가 선호하는 평화통일이 이루어질 경우 미·중·일·러의 GDP는 각각 76~485억 달러 확대되고, 신규고용은 각각 21~564만 명 창출되는 등 4개국 모두에 긍정적인 영향이 파급될 것으로 분석되었다. 통일편익의 크기는 중국이 가장 크고 미국과 일본은 비슷하며, 러시아가 가장 작은 것으로 분석되었다. 한편 남북이 통일되면 중국의 동북3성은 유라시아 대륙과 태평양의 연결거점이자 물류중심으로 거듭나면서 경제가 크게 활성화될 것이며, 일본의 경우 통일한국을 ‘슈퍼코리아’로 지칭하고 일본의 라이벌로 부상할 것으로 평가하였다. 러시아 측 연구는 남북통일로 에너지 수출 확대, 시베리아 철도와 가스 수송 라인의 한반도 연결 등이 이루어질 경우 극동러시아 경제가 활황을 보일 것으로 분석하였다.
국내연구에서는 남북한 생산요소 변화, 시장 확대, 국방비 감소, 해외신인도 상승이 나타나는 것으로 분석하였다. 아울러 다양한 시나리오에서 나온 결과를 종합해 보면 2016~30년 중 북한과 한국의 GDP 성장률이 각각 연평균 16%포인트 및 1%포인트가량 확대될 것으로 보았다. 또 남북한이 점진적 경제통합을 추진할 경우 무역부문은 통화교환비율과 가격체계의 올바른 정착이 긴요한 것으로 보았다. 아울러 남북통합 초기단계에는 각각 독립적인 화폐를 사용하되 남북한 통합회계단위(OKU)를 도입해야 하며, 북한의 인적자원을 활용하기 위해서는 남북한간 임금격차가 불가피하다고 주장하였다. 마지막으로 통일한국이 미·중, 중·일 등 강대국 사이의 경제·군사적 패권경쟁을 완충하고 협력을 촉진하는 역할을 수행함으로써 동북아지역의 안보 딜레마를 해소하는 데 기여할 수 있으며, 북한의 비핵화만으로도 주변국이 얻을 수 있는 편익이 상당한 것으로 분석하였다.
Those of us living in the contemporary times have a common mission to achieve unification in the Korean peninsula for the joint progress of South and North Korea based on the support of the international society and Northeast Asian cooperation. Korean unification is also an historical imperative for the Koreans who have been one nation and one people for a long time. Therefore it is necessary to present to the government strategies and policy alternatives through in-depth research on ‘when’ and ‘how’ unification would be achieved, and ‘what’ kinds of impact it would have, rather than ‘if’ it will happen.
In this respect, this book is a summary of 7 studies conducted under the ‘Research Project on the Unified Korea and Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation’. Its main contents include analyses on the costs and benefits of the unification of Korea in the perspective of its four neighboring countries—US, China, Japan, and Russia; effects of inter-Korean economic integration in Korea’s perspective, and analysis of diplomatic/security benefits of unification.
The world is now more interconnected than ever, and Korean unification will invariably impact its neighbors. In this regard, the cost-benefit analyses of the four countries are quite meaningful in that 12 overseas Korea specialists analyze the benefits of Korean unification and provide policy suggestions to maximize these benefits from the perspective of their own respective countries. In addition, the three research projects conducted by 11 domestic experts which provide advice on the effects of economic integration along with strategies for Northeast Asian cooperation based on their analysis on inter-Korean economic integration and diplomatic/security benefits of unification are also extremely valuable.
The research projects conducted by researchers from 4 major countries present four unification scenarios-status-quo, North Korea’s reform and opening-up, absorption of the North by South Korea, and peaceful unification. In the case of peaceful unification, which is preferable to all parties involved, the US, China, Japan, and Russia will all witness an increase of $7.6 to 48.5 billion in their GDPs, and creation of 210,000 to 5,640,000 new jobs, resulting in positive ripple impacts for all 4 countries. According to the analyses, China will be the biggest benefactor of Korean unification, the US and Japan will reap similar benefits, and Russia will benefit the least. In the event of Korean unification, China’s three northeast provinces will become a vibrant logistics center and hub for the Eurasian Continent and the Pacific region. According to the study by Japanese researchers, a ‘Super Korea’ will emerge after Korean unification, rivaling Japan. The russian researchers analyzed that if energy exports increases; and the Siberian railway and gas pipeline were connected all the way to the Korean peninsula as a result of unification, it will lead to an economic boom in the Far East.
Domestic researchers show that unification will bring changes in factors of production, market expansion, decrease in military spending, and improvement in international credit rating. According to their various unification scenarios, North and South Korea’s GDP growth rates will increase 16%p and 1%p respectively between 2016 and 2030. In the early stages of unification, independent currencies should be used but One Korea Indexed Unit of Account (OKU) must also be introduced; and in order to make use of North Korea’s human resources, disparity of wages between South and North Korea is unavoidable. They also analyze that a unified Korea will contribute to the resolution of the security dilemma in Northeast Asia by buffering the competition for economic and military hegemony between major powers such as the US vis-a-vis China and China vis-a-vis Japan, facilitating cooperation. Also, North Korea’s denuclearization alone will, in and of itself, significantly benefit neighboring countries.
Ⅰ.A Study to Analyze CostBenefits of the Reunification of Korean Peninsula to the United States (Marcus Noland)
1. Unification Scenarios and Interests of the United States
2. General Equilibrium Calibration of Unification
3. Implications for the United States from the Gravity Model
4. Policy Issues
Ⅱ.A Study to Analyze CostBenefits of the Reunification of Korean Peninsula to China (Jin Jingyi et al.)
1. Introduction
2. Ideal Condition of the Korean Peninsula within China’s Development Strategy in Northeast Asia
3. Unification of the Korean Peninsula and Economic Benefits for China
4. Unification of the Korean Peninsula and Security Benefits for China
5. Sino-Korean Cooperation Strategies for Korean Unification
6. Conclusion
Ⅲ.A Study to Analyze CostBenefits of the Reunification of Korean Peninsula to Japan (Kyoji Fukao et al.)
1. Introduction
2. Scenarios of Economic Development after Unification
3. Increase in GDP and Employment in Japan and Other Major Economies
4. A ‘Super Korea’ as Japan’s Rival in the East Asian Division of Labor
5. Financing North Korea’s Infrastructure
6. Role of Japanese Private Firms in Supporting the Infrastructure Projects
Ⅳ.A Study to Analyze CostBenefits of the Reunification of Korean Peninsula to the Russian Federation (Alexander Zhebin et al.)
1. Factors Determining Russia’s Korean Policy
2. Major Shortcomings of the Existing Reunification Scenarios
3. Cost-Benefits of 5 Unification Scenarios
4. Suggestions for South Korea’s Unification Policy
Ⅴ. The Effects of Economic Integration between South and North Korea(Sung Hankyoung)
1. Introduction
2. Changes due to Economic Integration
3. Model and Scenario
4. Analysis of Results by Scenario
5. Comparative Analysis of Scenario Results
6. Policy Implications
Ⅵ.Gradual Economic Integration between South and North Korea and Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia (Kang Moonsung et al.)
1. Introduction
2. Fundamental Directions for Achieving Economic Integration of North andSouth Korea
3. North and South Korean Economic Integration and Effects on NortheastAsian Division of Labor
4. North and South Korean Economic Integration and Northeast AsianEconomic Cooperation
5. Gradual Achievement of South and North Korean Economic Integration
Ⅶ.Analysis on Diplomatic and Security Benefits of Unification and Strategies for Unification (Chun Chae-sung et al.)
1. Introduction
2. International Politics in the Current East Asian Region
3. Position on the Unification in the Korean Peninsula of Countries US, China,Japan and Russia
4. Unification Diplomacy Strategies for the Unified Korean Peninsula vis-à-visNeighboring Countries
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