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Policy Analysis China, World Economy and Korea-China Economic Cooperation 경제관계, 경제협력

저자 채욱 발간번호 12-01 자료언어 English 발간일 2012.12.31

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후진타오 집정 10년간 중국경제가 초고속 성장을 달성하여 중국은 경제대국으로 부상하였다. 그러나 성장과정에서 나타난 중국 내부의 구조조적인 모순과 선진국의 경기침체라는 대외적인 환경 변화로 인해 중국경제가 어려움에 직면하고 있다. 중국내에서는 중국경제가 지속적 발전(sustainable development)을 달성하기 위해서는 두 가지 함정을 벗어나야 한다는 지적이 있다. ‘중등소득의 함정’과 ‘체제이행의 함정’이다.  이에 따라 중국은 경제발전방식을 근본적으로 전환함으로써 새로운 성장동력을 마련하고자 한다. 이러한 중국의 중장기 발전전략의 변화는 중국경제의 성장률은 물론 세계경제 및 한중 경제관계에도 영향을 미치게 될 것이다.
  발전방식 전환이 이루어지면서 중국경제는 고속성장 시대가 끝나고 중속성장 시대에 진입할 것이다. 중국의 발전방식 전환, 성장 동인 변화, 중국경제의 성장률 둔화는 한중 경제협력에도 영향을 미치게 될 것이다. 따라서   미래 20년을 준비하기 위한 새로운 한중 협력방안을 도출해야 할 때이다. 이러한 목적에서 중국의 발전방식의 전환과 인구 문제, 새로운 산업정책과 에너지 정책, 중국경제의 글로벌화 정책으로 나누어 중국의 중장기 발전전략을 검토하고, 이를 바탕으로 새로운 한중 경제협력 관계를 모색하고자 본 보고서를 발간하였다. 본 보고서에서는 크게 4가지 주제를 다루었다. 첫째, 중국의 발전전략 전환과 관련된 이슈를 다루었다. 그동안 중국의 가장 큰 성장동력의 하나이었던 ‘인구 보너스’가 사라지면서 잠재성장력 둔화로 이어지고 있다. 이러한 성장 잠재력 둔화를 극복하기 위해 중국정부가 추진하고 있는 경제발전 전략의 전환 방향과 그에 따른 영향을 분석하였다. 둘째, 중국의 중장기 산업 전략의 전환 방향과 이러한 변화가 세계경제와 한중관계에 미칠 영향을 분석하였다. 산업구조의 변화와 관련된 이슈로서 중국의 산업 고도화 추진 방향과 중장기 에너지 정책 변화를 분석하였다. 셋째, 중국경제의 국제화 이슈를 다루었다. 중국은 WTO 가입 이후 개방 확대를 통해 높은 경제성장률을 달성하였다. 이를 ‘대외개방의 보너스’라 한다. 그러나 이러한 ‘개방의 보너스’가 소실되어 가고 있는 것도 중국이 해결해야 할 과제 중 하나이다. 이에 중국은 스스로 국제화를 통해 시장을 넓히고, 이를 통해 지속적인 성장잠재력을 강화하는 동시에 국제사회에서의 위상도 강화하려 하고 있다. 중국의 국제화 전략의 핵심 내용인 위안화 국제화 전략과 해외투자 전략을 분석하였다. 넷째, 한중 경제협력 이슈로서 한중 수교 20년간 양국간 무역과 투자 협력 현황과 과제, 그리고 중국에 진출한 한국계 다국적기업의 중국 사업을 평가하였다.
The recent Chinese Communist Party Congress elected a new leadership that will lead China over the next decade. Under the previous, “fourth-generation” Hu Jintao leadership, China’s economy grew at an astounding pace, with China becoming one of the world’s largest economies and also one of the most powerful countries. The process of this rapid economic growth, however, also revealed deep structural contradictions in China and the increasing susceptibility of the Chinese economy to worldwide recession set off by the financial crisis in the West.
Students of the Chinese economy argue that, in order for China to ensure sustained development, it must take care not to fall into two traps: that is, the middle-income trap and the system transition trap. Although China is still the world’s most populous country, the size of its workforce for manual labor is now in a steady decline. The traditional manufacturing sector is vulnerable to oversupplying, while other developing countries are industrializing at a pace that may soon threaten the industrial prospects of China. The growth rate of the Chinese economy has accordingly slowed down in recent years. In the meantime, disparities in wealth along regional and class lines continue to increase, while a pervasive culture of corruption adds to widespread social anxiety. As the elite increasingly pursue self-serving policies, popular resentment is growing against the policy of continued economic reform.
Under the new leadership, China will fundamentally alter its approach to economic development, seeking to discover and develop new sources of growth. The framework of “development through innovation” will replace the framework of “development through input expansion.” Nurturing domestic consumer industries and markets will take priority over encouraging exports and foreign investments. Development no longer should degrade the environment but will become more eco-friendly, while the overall energy-dependent economic structure will gradually give way to a new and energy-saving economic structure. Industrialization will no longer be led singlehandedly by the manufacturing sector but will depend more and more on the new strategic industries. At the macroeconomic level, China will strengthen its ties to neighboring countries in the region through the expansion of free trade agreements. It will also seek to globalize the Yuan so as to facilitate Chinese investors’ activities overseas. These mid- to long-term changes will exert significant influence not only on the prospects of the Chinese economy for growth, but also the Korea–China economic relations as well as the entire international economy.
The shifts in the approach to economic development will inevitably slow down the growth rate of the Chinese economy, ending the age of high-speed growth and ushering in a new era of middle-speed growth. The new approach to development and the accompanying slowdown of the Chinese economy will also affect the prospects of economic partnership between Korea and China. South Korea has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of China’s rapid economic growth over the last two decades. As China grew to become “the world’s factory” and a major export powerhouse, Korea profited handsomely by providing intermediate goods that the Chinese manufacturing sector needed for the processing trade. This has enabled Korea to maintain a stable surplus in its trade balance with China. Korean companies also invested heavily in China, seeking new impetus for growth there. Now that China’s society and economy are expected to undergo radical transformation, no one can say with certainty that this mutually beneficial arrangement will continue to be so between the two countries for the next two decades as well. As China will increasingly seek to promote its domestic industries and reduce its emphasis on export-oriented growth, Chinese demand for Korean exports will concomitantly decrease. Given the fact that Korea specializes in supplying intermediate goods to China for its processing trade, Korea will be left all the more vulnerable to the decreasing demand in China. The effect could be drastic so long as Korea does not increase its access to the Chinese domestic consumer market.
Thus it is now urgent to develop a new plan and strategy for an updated partnership between Korea and China to guide the two countries’ relations for the coming two decades. We have come to publish the following collection of essays in order to help the reader contemplate and plan a new model of economic partnership between Korea and China. These essays address four main themes. The first essay examines the relationship between China’s changing approach to development and its demographic issues. As China no longer enjoys the “population bonus” that has been a huge boon to its astonishing growth, its potential for economic development is on steadily waning. The effects of this demographic change on China’s future development strategies are analyzed in detail. The second essay reviews China’s mid- to long-term strategy for industrial transformation and how such a strategy will affect China’s relations to the world economy and Korea. Of particular concern are China’s pursuit of advanced and high-tech industries and the mid- to long-term changes anticipated in its energy policy. The third essay addresses the international implications of China’s changing economic policy. Since joining the World Trade Organization, China has grown at an unbelievable rate by opening its doors to the international market and capital. This phenomenon can be described as “the bonus of openness.” The benefits of this bonus, however, have begun to decline, and China now needs to come up with a solution to handle its international economic relationship better. China has accordingly decided to globalize, expanding the markets for its companies overseas, hoping to enhance the sustainability of its growth potential and strengthen its position in the international community. The third essay therefore discusses the Chinese strategy for the internalization of RMB and plans for foreign investments. The fourth essay looks into the Korea–China economic partnership. It assesses the history of trade between the two countries over the last two decades, details the performance of Korean multinational corporations with operations in China, and identifies the challenges involved in improving and sustaining the partnership.
For this project, we invited seven Chinese experts specializing in China’s economic and trade policies. These authoritative experts not only participate directly and indirectly in shaping China’s important policies, but also have deep understanding of Korea–China relations. The studies undertaken for this collection were also extensively supplemented and revised with the help of Korean specialists in Beijing as well as a number of Korean experts on China.
Our hope is to see this collection of essays provide important and useful information to help readers understand China’s long-term development strategy better and develop a new strategy for the Korea–China economic partnership accordingly. I would especially like to thank all the writers who have contributed their work to this collection.

Foreword



Contributors

Ⅰ. Introduction and Summary / Pyeong Seob Yang
1. Background
2. Review of Previous Studies
3. Summary

Ⅱ. The Transformation of China’s Development Pattern and Its Impacts on the World Economy / Yin Xiangshuo
1. Introduction
2. China’s Economic Development Since 1978
3. Transformation of China’s Development Pattern
4. The Impact of the Transformation of China’s DevelopmentPattern on the World Economy
5. The Impact of Transformation on Sino-Korean Economic Relations
6. Concluding Remarks

Ⅲ.China’s Demographic Transition and Labor Market Changes: Implications to China and Rest of the World / Cai Fang and Wang Meiyan
1. Demographic Trend of China
2. Resultant Changes in the Labor Market
3. Impacts on Economic Growth
4. Implications to the World Economy
5. Suggestions to Korean Government and Investors

Ⅳ. China’s Policy Direction on Industrial Upgrading and Its Impacts on the World Economy / Feng Fei
1. China’s Industrial Upgrading Process since Its Reform andOpening-up
2. Current Situation and Development Strategy of China’s Emerging Industries
3. Impact of China’s Industrial Upgrades on the World Economy and Closer Cooperation between China and Korea

Ⅴ. China Energy Policy Trend and China-Korea EnergyCooperation / Han Wenke and Fan Lijuan
1. Status of China’s Energy Development
2.Key Issues and Challenges Faced with China Energy Development
3. The Projection for Energy Development Perspectives duringChina’s 12th Five Year and to 2020
4. The Development Priorities for China’s 12th Five Year Period and to 2020
5. The Impact on the World and Northeast Asia by China’s Energy Economy
6. Suggestions on Cooperation between China and Korea

Ⅵ. RMB Internationalization and Its Impacts / Zhang Bin
1. Introduction
2. Development and Current Status of RMB Internationalization
3. Development Direction of RMB Internationalization
4. Impact of RMB Internationalization on the Global Economy and Financial Orders
5. RMB Internationalization and China-South Korea Cooperation

Ⅶ. China’s Overseas Investment Strategy and Its Impacts on the World Economy / Wang Luo
1. The Evolution of China’s Overseas Investment
2. The Features of China’s Overseas Investment
3. The Evolution of China’s Policies on Overseas Investment
4. The Impact of China’s Overseas Investment on the World Economy and Domestic Economy
5. The Situation China’s Overseas Investment Faces in the New Era
6. Problems in China’s Overseas Investment
7. The Trends of Chinese Enterprises’ Overseas Investments
8. The Outlook of the Policies and Measures to Encourage Overseas Investment
9. The Trends of China’s Investment in South Korea and the Recommendations

Ⅷ. South Korean Multinational Companies in China / Wang Zhile
1. Introduction
2. Development of Foreign Enterprises in China
3. Development of South Korean Enterprises Invested in China
4. Investment of Famous Korean Multinational Corporations in China
5. Suggestions: Integration into China for Sustainable Development

Ⅸ. An Assessment of Korea-China Economic Cooperation / Pyeong Seob Yang
1. Korea-China Economic Cooperation: An Overview
2. Korea-China Trade Cooperation: Assessment and Tasks
3. Korea-China Investment Cooperation: Assessment and Tasks
4. Suggestion of Cooperation for Future-Oriented Trade and Investment

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