Since 2011, Timor-Leste has prioritized ASEAN membership as its highest diplomatic agenda. Although Timor-Leste had obtained the ‘in-principle’ membership and observer status, the time for the full membership has not yet been confirmed. This report analyzes the conditions and capabilities for the Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN and examines the support strategies and cases of major donor countries. Based on these analyses, this report aims to suggest the Korea’s plans for the development cooperation and support plans for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN.

In chapter 2, the conditions for development cooperation of Timor-Leste on various perspectives including politics, diplomacy and society, are examined. We also analyzed the Timor-Leste’s general capacity such as economic conditions, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) implement status, etc. Timor-Leste has the unique political systems, such as dual executive system and four separations power (president, executive, legislative and judiciary). In the field of diplomacy, Timor-Leste has a identity of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP), and has been adapting an active diplomacy in the form of “Comprehensive and Collective Engagement” with ASEAN and Pacific island countries. Based on these, Timor-Leste has been strategically utilized the geopolitical importance and adopted the accession to ASEAN as its top diplomatic priority. Timor-Leste has a pyramidal population structure typical of developing countries, with Tetum and Portuguese as official languages, and Indonesian and English as working languages. Timor-Leste is a least developed country with a nominal GDP of $2.2 billion a per capita of $2,491 as of 2022. Due to the weak agriculture and manufacturing industries, it has been highly dependent on the Petroleum Wealth generated by the Bayu-Undan oil field. Recently, the economic growth rate has been gradually recovering from the impact of Covid-pandemic, but there is a concern about the loss of growth momentum due to the end of Bayu-Undan oil field development. Oil and gas takes more than the 90% share of the total export. Excluding the oil and gas, coffee can be considered as the only export commodity which accounts about 7% share of the total export. There is an urgent need to attract FDI for industrial development. However, little FDI is taking placed other than investment on oil-field development due to the weak manufacturing base and domestic demand. The working-age population of Timor-Leste is approximately 800,000 with a low labor force participation rate of 30.5%, and the education level is only about the 48.8% with primary education or less. Bayu-Undan oil field is considered as a representative natural resource. As the reserves are nearing depletion, the development of Greater Sunrise oil field as an alternative is urgently needed. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) implementation status has remained at “challenges”, “significant challenges” and “major challenges” in various sectors.

The chapter 3 analyzes the Timor-Leste’s readiness and capacity to join ASEAN, especially the membership requirement stated in the ASEAN Charter and the level comparison with ASEAN member countries using key indicators. Regarding the fulfillment of the requirement of the ASEAN Charter Article 6, Timor-Leste has been considered positively. However, there are concerns about “ability” such as the weak economic development and financial situation, lack of physical infrastructure and low diplomatic capacity. Regarding the obligation of ASEAN Charter Article 5 paragraph 2 (Domestic legislation), we have monitored the legislation status to meet the obligations of ASEAN communities and other sectoral agreements based on Timor-Leste ASEAN Mobilization Plan (TLAMP) and Critical Elements for Accession (CEA). However, it is not easy to confirm whether Timor-Leste meets the requirements for ASEAN membership due to the difficulty of quantitative evaluation by the difference and wide range of membership requirements for each ASEAN communities and ‘Non-disclosure approach’ of ASEAN and Timor-Leste. Regarding the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2025 Blueprint, Timor-Leste could not meet a series of requirements such as legal regulations and global trade order excluding a few trade and people movement related requirement. In comparative analysis on the capacity with ASEAN countries by key indicators, such as income level, human development index, finance, communication, urbanization, literacy rate, Timor-Leste has scored the similar level to ASEAN latecomer countries. However, in democracy index which measures democracy development, Timor-Leste has ranked on 44th among 167 countries, higher than most of the ASEAN countries. This high ranking is believed to be due to the stable establishment and operation of democratic regime without any military coup or dictatorship after the independence in 2002.

The chapter 4 analyzes the ODA and support for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN from major donor countries and institutions. For the ODA analysis of Timor-Leste, we used the OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS). We also adapted the case studies of the major donor countries and institutions regarding supports for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN. The bilateral ODA had taken the major share of ODA for Timor-Leste from international community. By donors, Australia (31.3%), and Portugal (13.2%) have taken the largest share, and socialinfrastructure (60.9%) and economic-infrastructure (13.1%) have accounted for a large portion by sectors. For the case studies of the support for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, we adapted the cases of Japan and Australia for country cases, also ADB’s support for the institutional case. Japan has been supporting Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN by the Country Assistance Policy for Timor-Leste (2017) and by the supports through institutions such as JICA and ADB. Australia, the largest donor country of Timor-Leste, has been operating a series of mid to long-term development cooperation programs on various fields such as human development, village development, public administration, bio, agriculture & rural development, police-capacity building, etc. Australia had established a funding package (6.6 Mil AUD) in a period of 2022-2026, which supports Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN by capacity and infrastructure building projects such as government & private capacity building project, workshop for the partnership with ASEAN secretariat and member countries, etc. ADB has been supporting Timor-Leste by the 5-year mid-term strategy, Country Partnership Strategies (CPS) since 1999. During the period of Timor-Leste’s independence, ADB had it's focus on recovery & maintenance of infrastructure, but the support area has gradually expanded to pandemic, climate change, SDGs, etc. ADB’s supporting strategy for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN has its main focus on the capacity building projects by Capacity Development Technical Assistance (CDTA). The results of analysis of supporting case studies of major donor countries and institutions implies that Korea also needs to actively prepare the support plans in the area of capacity building for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, national system building, infrastructure, etc.

The chapter 5 provides the forecast of Timor-Leste’s full membership to ASEAN, and policy recommendations for Korea’s supporting plans. Although Timor-Leste has been granted the ‘in-principle’ accession and observer status at the ASEAN summit in November 2022, the formal accession to ASEAN has been delayed due to reasons including the concerns about Timor-Leste’s lack of preparations and capacity, disagreement among ASEAN member countries, etc. The majority of the ASEAN countries have a positive stance on Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, but there is uncertainty that the situation may change depending on a certain moment or political situation. For Timor-Leste, accession to ASEAN has great significance, including economic benefit, participation to regional economic integration, establishment of security and collective identity, national growth and advancement, geopolitical interest as well as ‘the second founding of the nation’. From ASEAN’s perspective, Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN has implications such as ASEAN’s expansion, peace and stability in Southeast Asia, and containment of China’s influence. To support Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, Korea needs to establish strategies focused on capacity building to implement the roadmap, the Korea-ASEAN Solidarity Initiative (KASI), and its strengths and competitiveness, as follows. First, Korea needs to support Timor-Leste in enhancing the foreign trade capacity and trade law experts. Second, human resource development and training, and third, support for the construction of digital infrastructure is required. To expand development cooperation with Timor-Leste, Korea should expand its ODA focused on the industrial restructuring & diversification, rural development, economic infrastructure development, etc.

Korea should prioritize the foreign trade capacity and trade law expert of Timor-Leste, and promote the its support for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN and development cooperation plans as outlined in Chapter 5. At the same time, Korean government needs to stipulate the supports for Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN in the Country Support Plan (CP) for Timur-Leste. In addition, there is a need to consider tripartite cooperation with Indonesia, Vietnam and ASEAN Secretariat, ways to link with the approaches to WTO accession, and select & focus strategy based on the Korea’s competitiveness. 

국문요약

제1장 서론

1. 연구 배경 및 필요성

2. 연구의 목적과 의미

3. 연구 구성 및 한계

제2장 동티모르의 개발협력 여건

1. 정치･외교･사회적 구조와 특징

2. 경제 특징 및 구조

3. 지속가능개발목표(SDGs) 이행 현황과 성과

제3장 동티모르의 아세안 가입 준비 및 역량 분석

1. 아세안 헌장 제6조(가입 조건)를 통한 분석

2. 아세안 헌장 제5조 2항(국내법 제정 의무)을 통한 분석

3. 동티모르의 아세안 가입을 위한 로드맵

4. 주요 지표를 통한 아세안 국가와의 역량 비교

제4장 동티모르의 아세안 가입 관련 주요국의 지원 전략과 사례

1. 주요국･기관의 ODA 지원 추이와 구조

2. 동티모르의 아세안 가입을 위한 주요국･기관의 지원 사례

3. 한국에 대한 시사점

제5장 동티모르의 아세안 정식 가입 전망과 한국의 지원 방안

1. 동티모르의 정회원 가입 과제와 전망

2. 동티모르의 아세안 가입 의미와 영향

3. 동티모르의 아세안 가입을 위한 한국의 지원 방안

4. 한･동티모르 개발협력 확대 방안

제6장 결론 및 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary