Since the global economic crisis triggered in the United States in 2008, the East Asian economic region has received particular attention as it achieved relatively solid economic growth compared to developed countries, which struggled with recession. The discussion on economic cooperation and economic liberalization within East Asia has mainly focused on the RCEP, with this discussion being led by ASEAN as it calls for ASEAN centrality. ASEAN is currently the second-largest overseas investment destination and second-largest trading partner for South Korea, making it an important partner in economic cooperation for South Korea. Particularly, as China is openly implementing economic retaliatory measures against South Korea for the deployment of THAAD missiles in the nation, South Korea has become more interested in the ASEAN market as it strives to diversify its trade and investment portfolio. Under this background, this research examines the characteristics of ASEAN FDI by income level and doing business conditions, then conducts an empirical analysis of determination factors to draw policy implications for stronger economic cooperation with ASEAN.
  This report consists of five chapters in total. In Chapter 2 we examine FDI determination factors which have been discussed from a theoretical and empirical viewpoint in the field of international economics. In Chapter 3 we look into the current situation of ASEAN FDI and the characteristics of ASEAN FDI by income level, along with conditions for doing business in the region. In Chapter 4, we conduct an empirical analysis of the determination factors for ASEAN FDI inflow, utilizing a covariance structure analysis. Lastly, in Chapter 5, we suggest implications for the Korean government and enterprises to generate mutually beneficial economic growth momentum by promoting Korea’s FDI to ASEAN.
  More specifically, in Chapter 2 this paper examines the theoretical and empirical implications and limitations of Dunning’s eclectic model, which is a representative theoretical frame for FDI determination factors, along with the knowledge-capital model proposed by Markusen and Venables. Based on the eclectic model, Dunning categorizes FDI into market-seeking, resource-seeking and efficiency-seeking types, while the knowledge-capital model classifies major FDI determination factors into horizontal and vertical factors. Horizontal FDI refers to the type of FDI involved when pursuing market expansion between countries which are similar in terms of economic scale and factor retention level, which can be understood in line with Dunning’s resource-seeking type of FDI. As mentioned above, there have been various attempts to clarify FDI determination factors from a theoretical standpoint, but with the results of such research differing by researcher, there is still no comprehensive theoretical model to support empirical analysis. Recently, various efforts have been made to explain the difference in FDI determination factors between developed countries and developing countries through institutional variables such as regulation.
  In Chapter 3, the characteristics of ASEAN FDI inflow and doing business conditions are examined based on a classification of ASEAN countries into three country groups according to GDP per capita, with the aim of understanding the characteristics of ASEAN FDI inflow. The results of this analysis show that vertical FDI is predominant in FDI into ASEAN, with the characteristics of vertical FDI slowly becoming visible together with market-seeking FDI in high-income ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which have a relatively large population and economic scale. These changes are expected to continue for the time being as ASEAN tries to unify the markets and production sites within the region and is expected to achieve economic growth. Meanwhile, in terms of the conditions of doing business in each ASEAN country, ASEAN countries where FDI was concentrated, such as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, showed highly advantageous conditions compared to other countries, whereas countries with low FDI inflow such as Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar were found to lag behind the others. Among specific evaluation items, contract implement period, bond recovery rate and trade period showed a high correlation coefficient with FDI. Particularly, the business conditions of each ASEAN country showed a distinct positive linear relationship with FDI, indicating that better business conditions lead to a higher amount of FDI inflow.
  Accordingly, in Chapter 4, an empirical analysis of the determination factors of 10 ASEAN countries’ FDI inflow was performed for the years of 2003 to 2014, utilizing a covariance structure analysis. The results of a primary component analysis show that, among 20 institutional variables, primary variables such as the time required to open a business, time required for import and export procedures, bond recovery rate after insolvency, and secondary variables such as the time required for contract implementation, start-up procedures, trade openness and export openness, were the determination factors for extra-regional investment into ASEAN. On the other hand, the results of a regression analysis to see whether these two factors affect the determination of ASEAN intra-regional FDI indicate that the above factors are not significant. In other words, while market- seeking factors and regulations are determinant factors for extra- regional countries when deciding on investment in ASEAN, these factors are not significant for countries within the ASEAN region.
  Chapter 5 suggests strategies for Korean enterprises to enter the ASEAN market and trade policy implications for the Korean government. Regarding entry strategies for the ASEAN market, first it will be necessary to enhance production networks with ASEAN and utilize these networks strategically, as seen by the example of Japan; second, our report emphasizes the need to efficiently respond to the trade policies and institutional changes of each ASEAN country; and third, investment risk should be managed by establishing strategic partnerships with local enterprises. Regarding the Korean government’s trade policy toward ASEAN, first it will be necessary to actively participate in the RCEP negotiations, contributing to the formation of intra-regional value chains. Among the issues being negotiated, the harmonized rules of origin stand out as a particularly important issue. Second, our report proposes stronger institutional support for Korea-ASEAN economic cooperation and towards this, the conclusion and revision of BITs with ASEAN members. Third, our report recommends a strategy of selection and concentration when it comes to improving the business environment in ASEAN. More specifically, we propose for the government to provide consulting in ASEAN about the factors identified as Korea’s strengths and determinant factors for extra-regional investment into ASEAN, such as contract implementation, bond recovery rate and business start-ups, as well as expanding educational support for ASEAN government officials regarding these matters. Lastly, we suggest reinforcing the national and industrial support systems for Korean enterprises to promote investment in ASEAN.
 

서언

국문요약

제1장 서론

1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성
2. 연구의 범위 및 방법
    가. 연구 범위
    나. 주요 선행연구와의 차별성
    다. 연구방법론

제2장 동아시아지역 FDI 결정요인에 대한 선행연구 검토

1. Dunning의 절충이론
2. 지식-자본모형(knowledge-capital model)
3. 제도적 요인
4. 아세안 관련 기존 연구
5. 소결

제3장 ASEAN 국가의 FDI 유입 현황 및 비즈니스 여건 분석

1. 아세안 국가의 FDI 현황 분석
    가. 아세안 FDI 유입 현황
    나. 주요 국가별 FDI 유형 분석(선진국 FDI/신흥국 FDI)
    다. 산업별 아세안 FDI 현황
2. 아세안 국가의 비즈니스 여건(Doing Business Index) 분석
    가. Doing Business 평가요소 및 산출 방법
    나. Doing Business 평가요소별 아세안 비즈니스 여건 분석
    다. 아세안 투자규제수준(FDI Restrictiveness Index for ASEAN) 분석
3. 소결

제4장 ASEAN FDI 결정요인 분석

1. 모델 설계
2. 모델 결과
3. 아세안 FDI 유입 결정요인 분석 결과에 따른 국가별 비교

제5장 결론 및 정책적 시사점

1. 요약 및 결론
2. 정책적 시사점
    가. 기업 진출에 대한 시사점
    나. 한국정부 통상정책에 대한 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary