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Working paper
Capital Inflows and Monetary Policy in Asia before the Financial Crisis
금융위기, 통화정책
저자 곽승영 발간번호 99-12 자료언어 English 발간일 1999.08.30
- 1997년 아시아 지역 국가들의 금융위기 전까지 많은 양의 자본이 아시아 지역국가로 유입되었으며, 다량의 자본유입은 아시아지역국가 통화당국의 통화관리 및 정책에 대한 관심을 증가시킴과 동시에, 그만큼 큰 부담으로 작용하였다. 이 보고서는 아시아 금융통화당국이 1985∼1996년까지 자국으로 유입되는 자본을 어떻게 관리하고 대처하였는지를 실증적으로 분석함으로써, 아시아 금융위기의 원인과 결과 및 앞으로 나아갈 방향을 제시하고자 한다. - 자본유입이 물가·통화량·환율등 거시변수들에 미친 영향과 정책대응에 대한 관한 이론적·실증적 연구로써 다량의 자본유입이 당국의 통화정책 및 외환시장 개입정책에 끼친 영향을 분석하고자 하며, 이러한 분석을 통하여 아시아 7개국(인도네시아, 한국, 말레이시아. 필리핀, 싱가포르, 타일랜드, 대만)이 어떻게 국제자본의 유입을 관리하였는지 실질적인 사실 과 데이타를 기초로 분석하고자 한다.
-아시아 국가들이 외환시장개입 및 불태화정책을 적절히 활용함으로써 통화정책의 독립성을 유지할 수 있었으나, 실질환율의 절상과 이에 따른 경상수지적자의 누적으로 말미암아 시장참여자들이 이들 국가의 고정환율이 지속되지 못할 것이라는 기대를 형성함에 따라 결국 금융위기로 치닫게 되었다.
- 이 연구의 주된 발견은 아시아 국가들이 급증하는 해외자본의 유입에 대하여 불태화정책에 크게 의존한 반면 외환시장개입에는 소극적이었다는점이다. 그 결과 환율의 과대평가와 경상수지적자 확대가 귀결되었고 환율평가절하에 대한 기대감을 확산 시킴으로써 위기의 원인으로 작용하였다.
-아시아 국가들이 외환시장개입 및 불태화정책을 적절히 활용함으로써 통화정책의 독립성을 유지할 수 있었으나, 실질환율의 절상과 이에 따른 경상수지적자의 누적으로 말미암아 시장참여자들이 이들 국가의 고정환율이 지속되지 못할 것이라는 기대를 형성함에 따라 결국 금융위기로 치닫게 되었다.
- 이 연구의 주된 발견은 아시아 국가들이 급증하는 해외자본의 유입에 대하여 불태화정책에 크게 의존한 반면 외환시장개입에는 소극적이었다는점이다. 그 결과 환율의 과대평가와 경상수지적자 확대가 귀결되었고 환율평가절하에 대한 기대감을 확산 시킴으로써 위기의 원인으로 작용하였다.
Asia has received sizable capital inflows before the Asian crisis in 1997. Capital inflows are contributed in part by internal factors such as high economic growth, liberalizing the financial system and opening the capital market, and in part by external factors such as low rates of interest in industrial countries, especially the United States. Capital inflows supplied finance needed for a high rate of investment, imports and economic growth. At the same time, capital inflows distorted relative good prices, fed bubbles into real asset markets and inflationary pressure into the economy.
Substantial capital inflows can give rise to microeconomic and macroeconomic policy issues. Especially, capital inflow surges increase the difficulty in managing monetary policy of an open economy under a fixed exchange rate system and with unrestricted trade flows and capital flows. The higher the degree of capital mobility, the more difficult the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate and the control of the money stock.
The main purpose of this study is to empirically explore how the monetary authority in Asia did cope with the surge of capital inflows in the period 1985-1996. It statistically examines the extent to which the massive capital inflows influenced the conduct of monetary policy and the effects of the policy of sterilization and intervention in the foreign exchange market. it provides empirical evidence for what a group of seven selected countries across Asia have done. The seven countries in the group are Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan( R.O.C.). The regression is estimated using a panel of 84 observations for the seven countries during 1985-1996.
A capital inflow generates monetary expansion and pressure for exchange rate adjustment. It poses an important policy question as to how to deal with capital inflows. It is uncertain whether capital inflows last long or not. Asian countries regarded capital inflows as a transitional phenomenon. As a result, Asian countries decided it was desirable to minimize the impact of capital inflows on the economy.
Asian countries heavily utilized the policy categories of measures to minimize the impact of capital inflows on the money supply and exchange rate. The monetary authority conducted contraction of the domestic source in the monetary base of the central bank, primarily directed to offset the effect on the money supply of an increase in the net foreign assets of the central bank resulting from capital inflows. At the same time, the monetary authority intervened in the foreign exchange market, primarily designed to absorb pressures on exchange rates that are accompanied by capital inflows and to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation.
The statistical results indicate that the degree of sterilization of the monetary authority is very high and that the sterilization is undertaken to control the money supply rather than to control the monetary base.
Furthermore, the effect of the intervention in the foreign exchange market is estimated to be small. The main statistical finding implies that the monetary authority took the policy of a high degree of sterilization with a low level of intervention in foreign exchange markets. The policy leads for a capital inflow to yield negligible effects on the exchange rate and small positive effects on the money supply and the price level. Consequently, the monetary authority succeeded in keeping exchange rates at desired levels and in limiting increases in monetary growth, despite a surge of capital inflows.
The majority of industrial countries allow their exchange rates to float and unrestricted capital flows. Under the world conditions, the monetary authority in Asian countries could have accepted the view that capital flows are of a permanent nature and that sterilized intervention policies are effective over a short period. If the monetary authority accepted the view, it would have floated the exchange rate. The study concludes that Asian countries could have avoided the financial crisis.
Substantial capital inflows can give rise to microeconomic and macroeconomic policy issues. Especially, capital inflow surges increase the difficulty in managing monetary policy of an open economy under a fixed exchange rate system and with unrestricted trade flows and capital flows. The higher the degree of capital mobility, the more difficult the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate and the control of the money stock.
The main purpose of this study is to empirically explore how the monetary authority in Asia did cope with the surge of capital inflows in the period 1985-1996. It statistically examines the extent to which the massive capital inflows influenced the conduct of monetary policy and the effects of the policy of sterilization and intervention in the foreign exchange market. it provides empirical evidence for what a group of seven selected countries across Asia have done. The seven countries in the group are Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan( R.O.C.). The regression is estimated using a panel of 84 observations for the seven countries during 1985-1996.
A capital inflow generates monetary expansion and pressure for exchange rate adjustment. It poses an important policy question as to how to deal with capital inflows. It is uncertain whether capital inflows last long or not. Asian countries regarded capital inflows as a transitional phenomenon. As a result, Asian countries decided it was desirable to minimize the impact of capital inflows on the economy.
Asian countries heavily utilized the policy categories of measures to minimize the impact of capital inflows on the money supply and exchange rate. The monetary authority conducted contraction of the domestic source in the monetary base of the central bank, primarily directed to offset the effect on the money supply of an increase in the net foreign assets of the central bank resulting from capital inflows. At the same time, the monetary authority intervened in the foreign exchange market, primarily designed to absorb pressures on exchange rates that are accompanied by capital inflows and to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation.
The statistical results indicate that the degree of sterilization of the monetary authority is very high and that the sterilization is undertaken to control the money supply rather than to control the monetary base.
Furthermore, the effect of the intervention in the foreign exchange market is estimated to be small. The main statistical finding implies that the monetary authority took the policy of a high degree of sterilization with a low level of intervention in foreign exchange markets. The policy leads for a capital inflow to yield negligible effects on the exchange rate and small positive effects on the money supply and the price level. Consequently, the monetary authority succeeded in keeping exchange rates at desired levels and in limiting increases in monetary growth, despite a surge of capital inflows.
The majority of industrial countries allow their exchange rates to float and unrestricted capital flows. Under the world conditions, the monetary authority in Asian countries could have accepted the view that capital flows are of a permanent nature and that sterilized intervention policies are effective over a short period. If the monetary authority accepted the view, it would have floated the exchange rate. The study concludes that Asian countries could have avoided the financial crisis.
Executive Summary
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
Ⅲ. Monetary Policy Responses to Capital Inflows
A. Sterilization
B. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention
Ⅳ. A Model of Monetary Sector
Ⅴ. Estimated Equations and Capital Inflow Effects
A. Sterilization
B. Money Demand
C. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention
D. Effects of Sterilization with Foreign Exchange MarketIntervention
Ⅵ. Conclusions
References
Korean Abstract
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Capital Inflows to Developing Countries
Ⅲ. Monetary Policy Responses to Capital Inflows
A. Sterilization
B. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention
Ⅳ. A Model of Monetary Sector
Ⅴ. Estimated Equations and Capital Inflow Effects
A. Sterilization
B. Money Demand
C. Foreign Exchange Market Intervention
D. Effects of Sterilization with Foreign Exchange MarketIntervention
Ⅵ. Conclusions
References
Korean Abstract
판매정보
분량/크기 | 55 |
---|---|
판매가격 | 5000 원 |
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