The world economy, which suffered from a series of financial crises in the emerging markets of East Asia, Russia and Brazil, has recently been relatively stable as financial contagion from the Brazilian crisis in mid-January did not fully materialize as many had feared. Following the deep economic output contractions of last year, activity has recently turned around in Korea and seems to have bottomed out in Malaysia and Thailand. The international financial environment has been stabilized as liquidity is returning to many of the emerging markets. Most of the advanced economies of North America and Europe have so far not been seriously affected by the crises in emerging markets. In particular, the U.S. economy has shown continued strong growth. Furthermore, inflation has generally remained subdued, despite the fact that the United States and many other economies that have been operating at close to full capacity.

Over the periods of the second half of 1999 and 2000, the world economy will show stable growth while the possibility of global recession is reduced. The U.S. economy will continue to grow over 3 percent until the end of this year and slow down moderately in 2000 as a result of an inevitable increase in interest rates and a likely correction of the stock market. While at the present, Japan's recession does not seem to have bottomed out yet, the Japanese economy will begin a modest recovery in the end of this year as a result of aggressive fiscal stimulus measures and a weak yen. Outside of Japan, most of Asia will continue on its recovery path. Many major forecasting institutions have revised upward their forecasts of the real growth rates of Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. Economic activity in the major European economies will slow over 1999 due to weak investment and exports. Decrease in interest rates and a weak Euro will support Europe's recovery in 2000.

However there remain risks which may hinder the stable growth of the world economy. First, the slowdown in the U.S. economy may be more abrupt than assumed if inflation pressure grows, or the stock market correction surpasses expectations. Secondly, the recent weakening of growth in the euro area may turn out to be prolonged in spite of the interest rate cut. Thirdly, large increases of current account imbalances among the major economies may causes protectionist pressures or destabilizing movements in international exchange rates.

序言
要約

Ⅰ. 개관

Ⅱ. 1999～2000년 세계경제전망
1. 성장 및 교역
2. 국제금융시장
3. 국제상품시장

Ⅲ. 주요권역별 경제전망
1.미국
2. 일본
3. 서유럽
4. 중국
5. 동남아
6. 중남미
7. 러시아
8. 중/동구
9. 남아시아
10. 阿/중동

Ⅳ. 요약 및 결론

<부록> 주요국 경제 심층분석

Ⅰ. 미국
1. 장기호황의 특징
2. 장기활황 지속요인: 분석과 평가
3. 미 경제의 성장지속 가능성 평가 및 향후 전망

Ⅱ. 일본
1. 일본경제 장기침체의 원인 분석
2. 경기회복을 위한 일본정부의 대책
3. 일본정부의 경제대책 평가
4. 일본경제 중장기 전망

Ⅲ. 중국
1. 중국경제의 동향과 경제정책과제
2. 중국경제의 구조적 문제점
3. 개혁추진실적과 부작용
4. 위엔화 평가절하 기능성 검토

Ⅳ. 러시아
1. 러시아의 최근 경제동향
2. 외채문제와 해결 전망
3. 러시아정부의 경제정책과 문제점
4. 경제전망