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Policy Analysis 유로화 출범의 파급효과 및 對EU 통상환경의 변화 경제통합

저자 이종화 발간번호 98-11 자료언어 Korean 발간일 1998.12.30

원문보기(다운로드:485) 저자별 보고서 주제별 보고서

신흥경제권의 금융위기확산 방지와 경기부양을 위한 선진국의 공동금리 인하가 계속되는 가운데 세계경제는 1999년 1월 1일 유료화 출범을 맞이한다. 유로貨의 등장으로 달러화에 필적하는 또 하나의 국제통화가 창출됨으로써, 달러화의 중요성을 하락시켜 국제통화체제가 달러, 유로로 양극화(bi-polarization)될 가능성이 크며 유로화는 경향적으로 안정적 강세기조를 유지할 것이다. 또한 유로의 출현으로 유로화권역내 주식, 채권 등의 금융시장이 급속히 발달할 것이며, 은행을 통한 차입이 아닌 직접금융(disintermediation) 혹은 증권화(securitization)방식으로의 자본조달이 대폭 확대될 것이다.

유로화권역의 금융 및 재정정책의 수행에 있어서 전자는 유럽중앙은행(ECB)으로 일원화되고 후자는 각 개별정부의 고유권한에 속하게 된다. 따라서 대칭적인 충격(symmetrical shock)이 유로화권역에 균등하게 영향을 미칠 경우 ECB의 금융정책 수단에 주로 의존할 것이며, 반대로 비대칭적인 충격(asymmetric shock)이 특정 개별 국가에 국한되어 발생할 경우 해당국가의 재정정책이 유효한 수단이 될 것이다.

좌파지도자의 요구를 대변하는 경제 및 재무각료이사회(ECOFIN)의 위상이 ECB에 비해 상대적으로 강화될 가능성과 세계경기회복을 위한 주요선진국의 거시정책 공조체제 동향을 종합적으로 고려할 때, 유로화권역은 소폭의 금리인하를 통한 다소 완화된 통화정책, 재정안정협약 준수를 위한 긴축재정정책 조합이 가장 현실적인 것으로 판단된다.

유로화 출범이 우리 경제에 미치는 영향은 다음과 같이 전망할 수 있다. 첫째, 對EC 수출에서 중기적으로 수출여건 호전이라는 기회가 제공될 것이지만, 단기적으로는 치열한 경쟁압박에 직면하게 될 것이다. 둘째, 유로화의 도입으로 EU 기업들은 역내에서 치열한 경쟁을 통해 배양된 힘을 바탕으로 현지직접투자를 확대할 가능성이 크므로 對韓 직접투자의 전망은 밝은 편이다. 셋째, 유로화권역내 증권시장의 포트폴리오 투자 전망은 상당히 밝은 편이며, 우리 기업 및 금융기관은 이를 충분히 고려할 필요가 있을 것이다. 넷째, 반덤핑관세는 여전히 우리기업의 對 EU수출을 가로막는 최대장애요인이 될 것인바, 유로화권역내 기업들의 치열한 경쟁압박으로 인해 역내 업계로부터 반덤핑제소가 더 늘어날 가능성도 배제할 수 없다.
The introduction of the Euro and its impact on Korea-EU tradeChong-Wha Lee, Cheol-Won Lee, Hoo-Young Chung
The introduction of the euro will likely be the most influential event affecting the international monetary environment since the institutionalization of the Bretton Woods system. Based on the economic size of the euro area, its integration of the intra euro markets, and the commitment to a stable currency by member countries, the euro will eventually, if not immediately, challenge the dominant position of the US dollar in world financial markets.

Prospects are for a stable and strong euro. Supporting this view are the sound fundamental economic conditions of the euro countries and strong initial euro demand coming from the integration of European capital markets. Furthermore, European economic recovery beginning last year continues and to expected to last well into 1999. Euro countries in 1999 are expected to realize a current account surplus of USD 200 billion; whereas the US is expected to run a deficit of more than USD 250 Other factors spurring robust euro demand will be the European Central Bank (ECB) billion. placing top priority on price stability. Thus, the ECB is likely to follow the anti-inflationary policy of the German Bundesbank.

Among the euro zone countries, the positive effects stemming from the euro will be summarized as follows. The elimination of transaction costs and hedging costs will increase the amount of internal trade. Price transparency in goods, services, capital, labor markets will increase and accelerate the unification of the markets and this will enhance competition among firms. The euro making pricing comparisons of all products sold inside the euro area instantaneous will boost competition and cause prices to merge at levels likely lower than existed in the pre-euro days.

The euro will increase competition among financial institutions as it pressures the area's financial markets to unify. Assurance of one interest rate and one exchange rate will boost euro-wide financial market activity as both liquidity and merger and acquisition activity increase. In addition to the increased interest of investors within the euro in financial markets, foreign investors are also expected to show higher interest in the euro area market.

The ECB will be in charge of EU-wide monetary policy whereas fiscal policy will remain under each individual member's control. Therefore, in case of symmetrical shocks, such as a fall in oil prices, an EU-wide response is needed to respond to the changed financial conditions and the member countries will normally rely on the ECB's single monetary policy. The recent(3rd December 98) interest rates cut in the euro area adopted to respond to the growing world economic crisis is one such example. However, when asymmetric shocks occur, such as the unification of Germany, and changes are only needed by individual members, then that member alone will implement the needed fiscal measures.One of the largest potential disagreements within the euro area may center around the proper exchange rate of the new currency. The ECB prioritizes price stability above all else. Meanwhile, the currently left-leaning governments dominating major European capitals want to see policies that prioritize job-creation. Based on last month's lowering of interest rates, it seems as though the job-creationists currently have the upper hand as the ECB was coerced into lowering interest rates.
As for exchange rates, again conflict arises between the ECB, which favors a strong euro, and individual governments, which are more concerned with maintaining the competitiveness of exports. However, both the ECB and the individual euro area governments are more concerned with intra euro conditions than with international factors. Thus, the euro exchange rate will not be given a high priority in economic policy making. This 'benign neglect' may lead to high fluctuations between the euro, the dollar and the yen.

Yet another area of conflict between euro authorities and individual member governments is the 'growth and stability pact' which will subject any country with a budget deficit exceeding 3% of GDP to fines. As individual euro members may now only rely on fiscal measures to deal with domestic problems, many euro members find this measure too restrictive. While economic conditions are currently relatively benign in Europe, once recessions hit, the 'growth and stability pact' is highly likely to be a hotly debated topic.

The goal and indeed the likely effect of the euro is stronger European growth and in the long-run, the region's demand for import will likely increase. However, as intra-euro competition increases due to the previously-mentioned factors, thereby boosting the competitiveness of euro firms, the area's exports are also likely to increase, pushing a number of non-euro exporter aside.While in the mid- to long-term, the introduction of the euro will likely boost European growth and thereby korean export opportunities in the region, in the short-term, Korean firms are likely to be challenged by the changes in euro trade structure. Furthermore, as intra-euro area competition heightens, this may further increase the use of anti-dumping measures against korea. Thus, even if the euro proves to be a strong currency relative to the won, in the short-term, the euro area will likely prove to be a difficult market for Korean exporters.

The combined domestic market capitalization of all 15 EU equity markets is currently half of that in the US. However, this gap will surely narrow as the huge European market is largely unified under the euro. Futhermore, a leading factor behind the preference for dollar denominated securities in international trading is the currency's low exchange rate and interest rate volatility.

However, as liquidity and size of the European financial market increase, the euro's interest rate and exchange rate volatility will likewise decrease.As European financial market instruments are to grow more advanced and numerous, the interest of European investors in investment products outside of conventional bank deposits and loans will certainly increase. This increased sophistication of euro investors, compounded by the likely higher economic growth for the area, portends higher foreign direct investment by euro countries. To capitalize on this opportunity, Korean firms and financial institutions should accelerate ongoing reforms and implement a transparent system that will lure the optimal amount of euro investment.

Ultimately, the euro is expected to decrease the international dependency on the dollar as a currency of settlement, especially in Eastern and Western Europe and in Africa. Thus, the Bank of Korea should prepare for the increased euro usage by increasing the share of euros in its foreign reserves. The central bank of China currently keeps 60% of its foreign reserves in dollars and 15% each in deutsche marks and yen. However, China plans to change its foreign reserve holdings to 40-50% in dollars and 30-40% in euros. In addition to public institutions, private financial institutions must also alter the composition of their portfolios based on the future importance of the euro. As the euro is likely to be a strong currency, the tendency is to denominate assets in euros and debt in dollars. According to the German Deutschebank, in the long term, 30-40% of world financial assets will be denominated in euros and the share of euros in the foreign reserves of the world's central banks will amount to 25-30%.

In raising the level of euros in its reserves, Korean public and private entities should give strong consideration to issuing euro denominated bonds as the euro will likely continue to have low interest rates. International organizations, such as the Asian Development Bank(ADB), is considering a large euro exposure and the government of the Philippines is considering issuing USD 50 billion in euro denominated bonds.

While it would be premature to conclude that the euro will soon gain stature in international markets equal to that of the dollar, the euro is off to a strong and promising start. Furthermore, major international financial institutions have implemented or are on the verge of implementing major buy orders for the currency. Korea should not allow itself to be forced into a catch-up policy concentring its euro policy. Instead, Korea must rise to the challenge to realize the benefits the advent of the euro can bring.
서문
요약

I. 序論

II. 국제통화로서의 유로화의 위상
1. 국제통화의 기능
2. 달러 對 유로
3. 유로화 환율 전망

III. 유로貨 출범의 대내외 파급효과
1. EU 금융시장의 변화
2. EU 역내산업의 변화
3. 대외적 파급효과

IV. 유로화 출범 이후 EU의 거시정책기조
1. 통화통합의 심회를 위한 제도적 장치
2. 단기금리의 수렴상황
3. 거시정책기조
4. 거시정책조합

V. 유로화 출범에 따른 對EU 통상환경의 변화
1. 韓-EU 양자간 무역에의 영향
2. 韓-EU 양자간투자에의 영향
3. 韓-EU 양자간 통상현안에 대한 영향

VII. 결론

참고문헌

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