Russia, Belarus and the three Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan laid the groundwork for a higher level of economic integration among the former Soviet Republics in June 2001 by declaring the official launching of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC). Presidents of the five member countries had already signed a new customs union treaty based on the now antiquated CIS Customs Union during summit talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, in October 2000. The purpose of this regional report is to review the economic background of the EEC and discuss the prospects for its enlargement as well as the possibility of a large-scale economic integration encompassing all CIS countries.
With the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, the 12 newly independent states (NISs) developed the idea of forging a single economic space as many of them were confronted with severe economic difficulties that demanded immediate attention. This was based on the perception that their continued economic downfall was attributable to the weakening trade relations between the former Soviet republics. In the early 1990s the inter-regional supply linkage under the Soviet planned economy was abruptly dissolved and each NIS began to establish independent trade barriers, hampering what had been a system of virtual free transactions linking republics in the Soviet era. Policy makers began to assert the need for restoring intra-CIS free trade as a solution to economic recession. This was the motivation underlying the formation of the CIS Economic Union in 1993, the first futile attempt to bind the economies of former Soviet republics together.
These most recent efforts to realize economic integration in the CIS through the EEC have sprung from a growing awareness among the transition economies that it was time for them to be integrated into the international economy. Quickly recovering from the shock of economic crisis since 1998, the transition economies are no exception to the rush to ride the wave of globalization. As regional trading blocs have been successively created across continents since the 1990s, countries in the CIS were also pressed to draw appropriate responses to the upswing of regionalism in the international economy. Moreover, Central and Eastern European countries have been in negotiations to gain membership into the European Union (EU) and will enter into the single market en masse in the near future.
This report assesses the pattern of trade relations between the five countries participating in the EEC customs union focusing on changes in the direction of trade and commodity structure. Products traded in the EEC market can be grouped into four categories according to their place of origin as follows: products from Russia, from EEC countries excluding Russia (EEC-4 hereafter), from the seven CIS countries that have not joined the customs union (CIS-7, hereafter) and, lastly, external countries. The web of trade relations between these groups of products in the intra-EEC market is described as follows: first, EEC-4 countries tend to sell primary goods and maintain complementary relations with Russia. Second, Russia is in competition with CIS-7 for greater market shares in the entire EEC market, as Russia and CIS-7 have similar trade structures in terms of commodities. Third, products of external origin complement the commodity structure of trade within the EEC and consist of high value-added products and capital goods backed by the higher comparative advantage over domestic products.
However, trade relations are expected to undergo the following changes when the customs union, currently in the take-off stage, is fully implemented. First, imports to the EEC will begin shifting to consist largely of cheaper intra-EEC products instead of goods from the CIS-7, which are not EEC members. The high demand for Russian products in the EEC-4 will continue but prices will go down as trade barriers between the EEC-4 and Russia are gradually removed. Therefore, the position of the CIS-7 in the EEC market will weaken due to the effects of trade diversion from external to intra-regional trade. Second, trade reorientation toward western economies, on the other hand, will remain a dominant economic trend in the EEC market despite the gradually tightening ties within the customs union. The westward trade reorientation or diversification towards Western Europe has been compelling since CIS countries began to pursue trade liberalization. This trend is not likely to dissipate but will escalate even more for the time being if the customs union raises the income level of the participating economies and the income effect is translated into a rising demand for products made in non-member countries.
Despite the expectations of rising intra-regional trade under the customs union, it is not likely that the EEC countries will adopt discriminatory and protective measures. For one thing, there is little chance that the EEC will agree to apply extremely high common external tariffs (CETs) on products from non-member countries. Member countries, rather than confining external ties within the 5-country group, want to expand bilateral economic ties with a variety of countries in Asia and North America as well as Western Europe. Some countries' bids for WTO membership will also prevent them from showing protectionist tendencies, because greater trade liberalization is one of the WTO's accession conditions. Higher CETs are also against WTO rules. The WTO recommends that the customs union set its CETs below the average tariff rates that individual member countries had imposed before the enforcement of the customs union. Meanwhile, accession negotiations can possibly delay the acceptance of the common trade policy by the EEC members if countries fail to agree on a common approach for collective accession to the WTO and place greater priority on negotiations with the WTO than on talks for a common EEC trade policy.
Many CIS countries wish to be free from the umbrella of Russian influence and to establish more independent external relations, economically and politically. Still, Russia is indisputably an opinion-leading country in the CIS, though sometimes elusively. Since his inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stressed the growing importance of a partnership with the CIS countries within the entire foreign policy framework. Considering the nature of CIS politics, the configuration of the EEC will have the following implications for the future political and economic landscape of the CIS. One possible outcome is that the EEC will contribute to enabling individual members to develop robust economic ties with Russia and promote plurilateral and balanced cooperation among members alike, materializing equitable economic development. Then, the EEC will become large enough to act as the seed for a large-scale united market in the CIS, similar to the single market in the EU. Or, the EEC may fail to end the pattern of hub-and-spoke trade relations, which means intra-EEC trade will remain highly concentrated on exclusive bilateral exchanges between Russia and individual countries. Provided that the hub-and-spoke pattern continues under the EEC, further enlargement is less likely as CIS countries seem unwilling to tolerate Russia's predominance. Hence, the CIS will be broken down into several plurilateral trade agreements, which will not necessarily include Russia, but rather be oriented towards the pursuit of mutual interests between regional partners.
As many CIS countries register a faster-than-expected recovery from the economic crisis, external economic relations will see subsequent changes. Recognizing the optimistic economic forecast, South Korea must prepare by collecting updated information concerning the changing business climate in the CIS. As greater economic integration in the CIS is targeted at boosting the income level and expected to prompt a growing demand for non-CIS products, it is necessary to watch for new business opportunities with the CIS.

국문요약

목차

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 목적
2. 연구의 방법 및 구성

제2장 CIS 역내경제관계의 발달
1. CIS 역내교역관계의 변화
2. CIS 경제통합의 추진
가. CIS 경제통합 추진의 배경
나. CIS 경제통합 추진 동향

제3장 EEC 출범과 교역관계의 변화
1. EEC의 출범
가. CIS 내 무역협정 동향
나. EEC의 출범과정과 특징
2. EEC의 대외교역관계
가. EEC의 지역별 교역구조
나. 품목별 교역관계의 변화

제4장 지역경제통합의 심화 및 확대 전망
1. EEC 역내자유무역의 확대
가. EEC 무역관계 전망
나. EEC의 역외무역정책 전망
2. EEC 및 CIS의 향후 전망
3. CIS 각국의 대외경제관계에 대한 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary