Despite industrial countries concerted policy coordination efforts to prevent a synchronized deep recession of the world economy, there still remain several downside risks that might adversely affect the global economy. The most conspicuous and significant risks are the possibility of an international liquidity crunch, the potential instability of emerging markets, and the possibility of a further financial meltdown and continued depression in Japan. However, if appropirate policy measures are undertaken, the prospects for the world economy in 1999 are promising.

In 1999, the world economy is poised to bounce back from 1998? 2.0% economic growth to a more benign 2.4% growth. This optimistic forecast is based on a number of recent developments that potentially reduce the risks of a global recession. To begin with, the United States still shows quite strong economic fundamentals. The third recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year successfully ended the credit crunch triggered by the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management which took place just after the Russia? de facto debt default in August. Furthermore, the Dow Jones industrial index, which plunged in late August and September has fully recovered. Waning U.S. consumer confidence also recovered in November on the back of the recovery of stock prices. As consumer spending is two-thirds of the nation's overall economic activity, the rise in consumer confidence indicates that the U.S. economy is unlikely to soon slide into recession.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also delivered an early Christmas gift by participating in concerted interest rate cuts. On December 3rd, ECB reduced the administered interest rates from 3.3% to 3.0%, despite continued denials that it would do so. Although the lower interest rates will not change short-term growth prospects, which are mainly influenced by the slump in foreign demand, they will have a positive influence on business confidence, especially in the financial sector. The successful launching of the Euro, bolstered by lower interest rates will also contribute to economic growth prospects for West Europe and peripherial economies.

The Japanese banking crisis remains one of the largest, if not the single largest, threat to the world economy. While the Obuchi government? financial rescue and fiscal stimulus packages are not fully satisfactory, they may be sufficient to bring at least a temporary end to the Japanese recession in 1999. Meanwhile, non-Japan Asian economies are expected to begin improving late this year or at least in the first half of 1999. Foreign investment is increasing, particularly in Korea and Thailand, and the current account crisis is literally over. The key issue is now whether the recovery will be characterized by a slow U-shaped or a strong V-shaped cyclical rebound.

序 言
要 約

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 세계경제환경의 변화
1. 세계경제의 침체와 대불황 가능성
2. EMU 출범이 세계경제에 미치는 영향
3. 향후 국제금융체제의 개편 전망과 시사점
4. 자본자유화와 단기자본규제 논의 및 향후 전망
5. 아시아 금융위기 이후 세계 직접투자의 흐름과 향후 전망
6. 전자상거래의 확산이 세계경제에 미치는 파급효과
7. Y2K(밀레니엄버그) 문제가 세계경제에 미치는 파급효과
8. APEC EVSL(자발적 분야별 조기자유화)의 향후 전망 및 영향
9. 뉴라운드 전망

Ⅲ. 1999년도 세계경제환경
1. 성장 및 교역 전망
2. 국제금융시장 전망
3. 국제상품시장 전망

Ⅳ. 주요 권역별 경제 전망
1. 북미
2. 일본
3. 서유럽
4. 중국
5. 동남아(ASEAN)
6. 중남미경제
7. 러시아
8. 中-東歐
9. 남아시아
10. 阿-中東

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론