한국의 자동차 산업은 GDP 및 총수출에서 중요한 비중을 차지하고 있으나, 동 부문의 수입은 비교적 부진한 편으로 2001년 완성차와 부품을 포함하여 수출의 11.7% 수준을 보였다. 완성승용차만 고려할 때 수출과 수입의 차이는 더욱 커져 같은 해 완성승용차의 수입은 수출의 2.1%에 불과하였다. 이러한 수출과 수입의 불균형이 통상마찰을 야기하고 있다. 미국과 EU는 과거 한국이 시장보호적인 정책을 활용해왔으며, 현재에도 특히 수입품에 대한 소비자들의 부정적인 인식 등 무역장벽이 존재한다고 주장하고 있다. (생략)
In recent years, the United States has accused Korea of having an 'anti-import' bias when it comes to motor vehicles. US maintains that imports of motor vehicles in Korea is 'unusually low' because Korean consumers will not purchase foreign vehicles due to 'nationalistic' or 'patriotic' reasons. In this paper we look at what would happen if consumers, Korean and worldwide, eliminate their preference for domestic vehicles and judge both domestic and imported vehicles from different sources on equal criteria in terms of substitutability among them. Since tariff barriers for passenger cars in Korea are relatively low at 8%, a traditional approach, which looks at trade liberalization through tariff reduction, is not likely to show a substantial change on trade. To examine the possible consequences of changes in consumer preference on trade, we see what happens when substitution elasticities concerning consumption behavior between domestic and imported motor vehicles are changed in the GTAP model. When the entire world eliminates its discriminatory preference for domestic motor vehicles, motor vehicle industry imports and exports for all countries will increase. In addition, the domestic production and trade balance of the motor vehicle industry, welfare, and GDP will rise or improve for motor vehicle net-exporting countries such as 'Korea,' 'Japan' and 'EU', while the variables for motor vehicle net-importing countries such as 'US,' 'Other Asia' and 'Rest of the World' will fall or worsen.
Executive Summary I. Introduction
II. Korea and World Trade in the Motor Vehicle Industry 1. World Trade in the Motor Vehicle Industry 2. National Comparative Advantage
III. Korea's Trade in the Motor Vehicle Industry 1. The Motor Vehicle Industry 2. Passenger Cars 3. Motor Vehicle Parts 4. US Trade in the Motor Vehicle Industry and Korea-US Trade 5. The Elimination of the Import Source Diversification Program and Its Effects on Korean Trade 6. Industrial Linkages of Korea's Motor Vehicles Industry 7. Tariff Rates of the Motor Vehicle Industry
IV. Potential Impact of Changes in Preferences on Trade and Output 1. The GTAP Model 2. Model Specifications 3. Parameters of Concern 4. Policy Simulation 5. Results of the Simulation Experiments
V. Summary and Implications
ANNEX 1: Tables ANNEX 2: On the Elasticity of Substitution in the GTAP Model