Early Policy of Reform and Opening in China and Vietnam and the Direction of Reform in North Korea
Myoung-Chul Cho·Ihk-Pyo Hong

From the late 1980s until the mid 1990s, North Korea experienced a great difficulty with system maintenance, with continuing food shortages, economic deterioration and international isolation in the wake of the breakdown of the socialist bloc. In light of this, there was posed the possibility of an early breakdown of the North Korean system. Kim Il-sung's death in 1994 especially raised such expectations both at home and abroad. However, the North Korean system began to show signs of gradual settlement once over the year of 1998. Based on the confidence in the stability of the system, North Korea has recently begun to pursue external opening and system reform of a North Korean style to show a rather progressive attitude in inter-Korean relations, and also to actively engage in a variety of diplomatic activities on the international scene.

In view of the stabilizing trend and developments in the North Korean system, a great number of studies on South-North Korean integration or on the transformation of the North Korean system, based on the premise of an early breakdown of North Korea and abrupt integration of two Koreas seem to be unable to reflect the various possible processes of integration and the realities of North Korea. North Korea in economic transition is especially likely to look to a reform and opening policy of partially adopting a market economic system while maintaining the socialist framework as in the case of China and Vietnam. Thus, a comparative study of the initial conditions of gradual reform and opening in China and Vietnam and the present realities in North Korea seems to be in order to provide some suggestions on the forecast and prospects for system change and reform directions in North Korea.

This report is designed to delve into the initial conditions and the foci of reform in transition to a socialist market system in China and Vietnam so as to ascertain their differences and similarities with the form, speed and reform policy North Korea can take at present in terms of economic transition. To that end, the policy and process of reform and opening are divided here into three categories: change in proprietorship, liberty of economic activities and construction of market infrastructure.

First, as for the change in proprietorship constituting the core of economic transition, China and Vietnam turned to the method of gradually expanding the non-state sector, allowing the enterprise or economic activities of individuals or foreign investors, recognizing private proprietorship, rather than hurrying to privatize national property in an across-the-board way in the initial reform process. This is in contrast with Eastern European countries, and will provide some suggestions for the North Korean process of reform.

Second, the economic liberalization policy is aimed at departing from the state-run economic plan and establishing as the economic principles the economic activities based on the free will and responsibility of the individuals. The Chinese and Vietnamese policies in this line include mainly: strengthening of independent management rights of individual production units, curtailment or abrogation of production subsidies to companies, gradual liberalization of commodity prices, partial admittance of business establishment and commercial activities, liberalization of foreign trade and expansion of foreign investment.

Third, construction of market infrastructure should go along two lines: financial and monetary. China and Vietnam, aware that these two lines are the most important in economic reform, came up with a variety of active macroeconomic policies. North Korea will also have to carry out radical reform of the financial and monetary systems and thus guarantee the free flow of capital in order for the privatization and liberalization policy to bear fruit in the market.

As mentioned above, China and Vietnam have adopted the gradual step-by-step reform and opening policy under the management of the Party and government while maintaining the basic framework of socialism. This will be a rather probable alternative for North Korea at present. In addition, a comparative study of China and Vietnam, both having experienced territorial division due to ideological differences, though different in characteristics and details from Korea, may also suggest some lessons to Korea in expanding inter-Korean economic relations and constructing a joint economic community. The difference between China and Vietnam on the one hand and North Korea on the other hand lies in that the former two do not have to worry about possible system instability during the process of marketization of the economy owing to the existence of a possible "absorber country," while the latter has to worry about the existence of such a country, which acts as a hindrance on the path of marketization and external opening. Hence comes also the importance of the roles of the South Korean government and neighboring nations in inducing the stable reform and opening policy of North Korea.

Ⅰ. 序論
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 내용 및 방법
3. 보고서의 구성

Ⅱ. 中國·베트남·北韓의 改革·開放에 대한 觀點 및 初期與件 比較
1. 중국·베트남·북한의 개혁·개방에 대한 관점
2. 중국·베트남의 개혁·개방 초기여건과 북한의 최근 상황
3. 3국의 차이점과 유사점 분석

Ⅲ. 中國·베트남의 初期 改革·開放政策과 北韓의 最近 政策變化 比較
1. 소유형태의 변화
2. 경제활동의 자유화
3. 시장인프라구축

Ⅳ. 中國·베트남의 經驗에 기초한 北韓의 改革·開放政策의 基本方向
1. 북한 개혁·개방의 기본방향
2. 북한의 안정적 개혁·개방을 위한 한국과 주변국의 역할