본 연구의 계량분석에 의하면, 외채증가율의 증가는 경제성장에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있고, 외채가 적정수준으로 유지되기가 어렵다. 따라서, 저축을 늘리거나 투자를 줄여 경상수지를 흑자로 전환해야 하며 규제완화를 통해 외국인투자를 적극적으로 유치하여야 한다. 그리고, 외채에 대한 효율적인 관리를 위해, 정부는 외채의 규모와 구조의 추세를 보다 면밀하게 파악하는 등 외채관리체계를 개선하는 것이 필요하다고 본다.
The empirical analysis on Korea's foreign debt indicates that an increase in the growth of debt is harmful to Korea's economy and that total external debt may not be sustainable. The result of the sustainability test implies that the gradual reduction of foreign debt to a certain level is desirable. In order to decrease the foreign debt, Korea needs to increase its current account surplus, either by increasing savings or by decreasing investment, and increase foreign direct investment through deregulation.
The structural problems associated with a rapid increase in debt are: accumulation of current account deficits; over-investment; a large amount of bank liabilities due to government intervention; labor market inflexibility; and a loss of policy credibility. These contribute directly or indirectly to the tremendous increases of foreign debt.
The current debt crisis was difficult to predict because it was caused by complex economic, financial and political events. For the efficient debt management, a possible solution is to set up an early warning system that can predict debt crisis. It is necessary for the government at this point to improve the national debt management system in order to monitor and manage the scale and structure of outstanding debt. Then, Korea will be able to track down the flow of its debt structures and trends. In this way, Korea can plan and prepare well in advance to prevent future debt problems.
II. Foreign Debt Analysis
III. Economic Effects of Debt
1. Recent Research on Debt
2. VAR Approach
3. Economic Effects
IV. Structural Problems of Foreign Debt
1. Current Account Deficit
3. Bank Liability
4. Labor Inflexibility
5. Policy Credibility
Appendix Ⅰ. VAR and Impulse-Response Functions
Appendix Ⅱ. Data Source
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