As Korea-India economic cooperation has been gaining momentum in recent years with increasing institutionalization of relevant mechanisms, there is a growing need to further promote the entry of Korean companies into the Indian market and enhance the synergy in economic cooperation between Korea and India. Yet, vast differences in the investment environment and disparities across states present both opportunities and risks, which in turn calls for a strategic approach based on a proper understanding of the growth patterns of different states. It is in this context that the current study seeks to project long-term growth rates and patterns of Indian states, and examine policy implications accordingly.
The present study employs the growth accounting model as a tool to estimate the growth patterns and long-term growth rates at the state level. To begin with, the study categorizes Indian states into fast-growing, average, slow-growing states. The fastest growing states include Gujarat and Maharashtra; average states are Kerala and Karnataka; and Bihar and Assam are among the slow-growing states. A cross-examination of the past state-level growth patterns based on the factors of production and the total factor productivity revealed that states in which the contribution of total factor productivity has increased substantially saw an equally substantial rise in the GDP growth rate. On the other hand, in other states where the contribution of total factor productivity has declined, the GDP growth rate has fallen short of the national average, which indicates that Indian states' growth rate is determined by factors other than the increase in capital and labor. In addition, states are classified based on long-term growth rate projections into fast-growing/high-income, fast-growing/low-income, slow- growing/high-income, and slow-growing/low-income states: Fast- growing/ high- income states are Gujarat and Maharashtra; fast-growing/low-income states include Orissa; and slow-growing/ low-income states include Bihar and Madhya Pradesh.
While effecting changes in the factors of production and the total factor productivity had little impact on the economic conditions, provided the investment rate is changed, it increased the disparities in the GDP growth rate and GDP per capita. On the other hand, in accordance with the neoclassical economic growth theory that the growth rate in the total factor productivity increases rapidly in a backward state, changing the total factor productivity yielded significant changes in the growth rate, income levels, and growth patterns of states. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Gujarat; which were initially classified as fast-growing/ high-income states, were regrouped as slow-growing/ high-income states; slow-growing/low-income states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Assam moved to the fast-growing/ high-income group.
A comparison of the nominal GDP of fifteen states of India with that of other countries, provided that the growth rate in total factor productivity will continue in the future, indicated that the nominal GDP of Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu will surpass that of Poland, Turkey, and Thailand by 2026. Notably, the nominal GDP of Maharashtra is projected to exceed that of Korea by then. In addition, the projections of the nominal GDP per capita revealed that the figures for Maharashtra and Gujarat will be similar to that of Mexico, while Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Haryana will be on par with the Republic of South Africa by 2026.
Based on the analysis of the growth patterns of Indian states, the following policy implications can be provided. First, forward-looking and more focused strategies need to be formulated with a particular focus on the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat which are to develop into leading economic hubs in India. At the same time, an approach geared toward domestic demand rather than manufacturing bases for exports is needed, taking into account unique attributes and medium/long-term development plans of Indian states. Second, a close watch should be kept over such states following closely behind the fast-growing/high-income group as Punjab, Orissa, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh; and accordingly, appropriate strategies targeting those states should be prepared. On the other hand, as for slow-growing/low-income states such as Bihar which carry high-growth opportunities as well as risks, close monitoring should be undertaken on their policy and business environments. For these states, an incremental strategy should be adopted for the medium/long-term, while targeting niche areas in the states in the near term.
As Indian states’ economic growth accelerates and income levels rise at a pace much faster than developed countries and other emerging economies, the industries and consumption demand will likely keep up a similar pace of change. In particular, infrastructure projects are likely to expand substantially, and as such, there is a need to capitalize on the immense demand for infrastructure development. Furthermore, it must be also noted that the consumption pattern will change fast with rising income levels in Indian states. Therefore, efforts are needed to respond flexibly to the changing trends and patterns of economic growth in Indian states, while paying particular attention to the metropolitan cities of India.
 

서언 

국문요약 

제1장 머리말 
1. 연구 배경 및 목적 
2. 연구 방법 및 내용 
3. 선행연구와의 차별성 

제2장 성장격차요인과 주별 성장패턴 
1. 성장격차요인 
2. 주별 성장패턴 구분 
3. 성장격차요인과 주별 성장패턴의 관련성 
  가. 투자와 성장격차 
  나. 인구구조 및 인적자원과 성장격차 
  다. 산업구조와 성장격차 
  라. 사회간접자본 및 천연자원과 성장격차 
  마. 사회하부구조와 성장격차 
  바. 소결 

제3장 성장회계모형을 활용한 주별 성장패턴 및 전망 
1. 모델 설정 및 데이터 
  가. 성장회계모형 
  나. 이론적 배경 
  다. 데이터 및 추계방법 
2. 주별 과거 성장패턴 분석 
  가. 주별 성장률 변화 
  나. 생산요소 기여도 및 총요소생산성 변화 
3. 주별 장기 성장률 추정 및 성장패턴 
  가. 성장률 기준 
  나. 소득수준 기준 
  다. 성장률 및 소득수준 기준 
4. 장기 성장패턴 변화 가능성 
  가. 투자율 변화 
  나. 총요소생산성 증가율 변화 

제4장 인도 주별 위상 변화와 시사점 
1. 인도 주별 위상 변화 
  가. 경제규모 
  나. 소득수준 
2. 정책 시사점 
  가. 고성장ㆍ고소득 주: 우선집중 및 차별화 전략 
  나. 고성장ㆍ고소득 편입 유망 주: 선제적 진출 전략 
  다. 저성장ㆍ저소득 주: 점진적 접근 및 틈새 전략 
  라. 주별 산업 및 소비 수요 변화에 적극 대응 

참고문헌 

Executive Summary