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APEC Study Series The Disparate Impact of Digitalization on Tax Revenues: An Illustration from Developing APEC Economies APEC

저자 Seungho Lee 발간번호 24-02 자료언어 English 발간일 2024.10.31

원문보기(다운로드:412) 저자별 보고서 주제별 보고서

국내 세수 동원은 장기적인 경제 및 정치 발전을 위한 중요한 요소이다. 기존 연구는 국내 세수 확보를 강화할 수 있는 잠재적인 방안 중 하나로 디지털화를 지목하고 있지만, 디지털화와 국내세수 동원 간 관계는 아직 충분히 연구되지 않은 측면이 있다. 본 연구는 디지털화와 정부의 세수 확보 능력 간의 관계가 거버넌스의 질에 의해 어떤 영향을 받는지를 검토함으로써 기존 문헌에 기여한다. 2004년부터 2021년까지 최대 159개 경제를 포함한 시계열 횡단면 데이터셋을 기반으로 한 실증분석 결과, 디지털화 수준의 향상은 GDP 대비 비자원 부문 세수 비중 증가로 이어지지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만, 디지털화가 건전한 거버넌스, 즉 높은 수준의 시민 참여와 책임성 및 규제의 질과 결합하는 경우 국내 세원 동원에 긍정적 효과를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이러한 디지털화와 거버넌스 변수 간의 상호작용 효과는 경제의 디지털화 단계와 발전 단계에 따라 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 실증분석 결과와 사례 연구는 디지털화 노력과 함께 제도적 틀을 강화하는 노력이 국내 세원 동원의 지속가능성을 보장하는 데 필요함을 강조할 뿐만 아니라, 이 부문에서의 가능성이 가장 두드러진 APEC 개발도상국에 유용한 시사점을 제공한다.
While prior research has highlighted digitalization as a potential avenue for enhancing domestic revenue mobilization—a crucial component for the long-term economic and political development of economies—the relationship between digitalization and domestic revenue mobilization remains underexplored. This working paper contributes to the existing literature by examining how the interplay between digitalization and the government’s capacity to tax is influenced by governance quality, an aspect largely overlooked in previous studies. Empirical findings based on a time-series cross-sectional dataset including up to 159 economies from 2004 to 2021 show that a higher level of digitalization alone does not necessarily translate into a higher non-resource tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. However, when digitalization is coupled with sound governance—specifically in terms of voice and accountability or regulatory quality—it significantly boosts domestic revenue mobilization. The study also finds that the interaction effects between digitalization and these governance variables vary according to the levels of digitalization and development across economies. The findings and case studies presented in this paper underscore the importance of strengthening institutional frameworks alongside digitalization efforts to ensure enduring success in mobilizing domestic revenue, offering valuable insights especially for developing APEC economies where the potential for improvement is most pronounced.
Executive Summary
I. Introduction
II. Theory and Hypotheses
III. Data and Methodology
IV. Empirical Results
V. Policy Implications
References

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