1990년대 초반부터 동아시아 국가들은 지속적으로 금융시장의 개방과 자본계정의 자유화를 추진해 왔다. 무역자유화를 통한 시장통합과 함께 자유로운 국제금융거래의 증가는 금융시장의 통합을 가져왔다. 그 결과 각국의 경제는 개방경제로 이행하게 되었고, 자본의 자유로운 유출입이 가져다주는 여러 가지 편익에도 불구하고 거시경제의 교란요인이 증폭될 수 있다는 우려가 지적되어 왔다. 특히 자본의 유출입과 경기변동간에는 밀접한 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 보여지고 있다. (생략)
This paper documents the evidence of business cycle synchronization in the selected Asia Pacific countries in the 1990s. We also find that business cycles in the Asian crisis countries are highly synchronized with those in Japan. We explain business cycle synchronization by focusing on the channel of international capital flows. Using the VAR method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom-bust cycles following capital inflows and that boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence also shows that capital flows in the region are highly correlated, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization contributed to business cycle synchronization in Asia.
Executive Summary
I. Introduction
II. Theoretical Overview 1. Financial Integration and Business Cycles 2. Trade Integration and Business Cycles
III. Trends and Stylized Facts of Business Cycles 1. Volatility of Business Cycles 2. Co-movements of Business Cycles
IV. Trends and Stylized Facts of Capital Flows 1. Current Account, Capital Account and Overall Balance 2. Components of the Capital Account
V. Capital Flows and Business Cycles: Empirical Studies 1. Vector Auto-Regression Model 2. Basic Model and Effects on Output 3. Effects on Other Marco Variables 4. Synchronization of Capital Flows and Business Cycles