본 연구에서는 수입중간재와 생산성 간의 관계에 대한 최근 논의를 토대로 한국경제에 주는 시사점을 연구하였다. 본 연구는 크게 두 파트로 구분되는데, 첫째 파트에서는 Basu(1995)의 연구를 확장하여 국산중간재와 수입중간재가 생산에 투입되는 모형을 설정한 후, 수입중간재가 생산성의 경기동조화에 미치는 영향을 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 미국에 비해 소규모 개방경제인 한국의 경우에는 수입중간재의 가격이 외부에서 결정되고, 국산중간재 이외에 수입중간재라는 대체가능한 투입요소가 가용하여 생산성의 경기동조화 현상이 다소간 완화되는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째 파트는 Johnes(2011)와 Lee and Pyo(2007)를 토대로 한국의 투입산출구조 속에서 한 산업의 배분 비효율성이 여타 산업에 어떻게 파급되는지를 살펴보고, 그 결과 각 산업의 생산 비효율성(후생감소)이 어떻게 달라지는지 분석하였다. 한국의 29개 제조업을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기술변화와 비효율성의 정도는 산업별 승수(multiplier)와 관련되어 있다는 점을 발견하였다. 다만 근원적인 식별문제는 후속연구로 남게 되었다.
There have been voluminous contributions such as Daudin et al. (2011), Johnson and Noguera (2012), Koopmans et al. (2010), and Trefler and Zhu (2010) in measuring value added trade based on input-output tables as generalizations of the vertical specialization measures following Hummels et al. (2001). These studies focused on trade in intermediate goods as a key feature of recent global trade. In the case of Korea, about 50% of total exports and 70% of its total imports are intermediate goods trade. This paper contributes to the discussion about the trade in intermediate goods and productivity by revisiting Basu (1995), Jones (2011), and Lee and Pyo (2007) to examine implications of trade in intermediate goods for macroeconomic business cycles and productivity and welfare at the current stage of Korean development. The major revision of the Basu (1995) model is attempted by decomposing intermediate goods into domestically produced intermediate inputs and imported intermediate inputs to investigate implications of the model in a small open economy. The major finding is that the procyclicality of the intermediate goods usage relative to labor usage and TFP changes in both value added and gross-output regressions are significantly weaker in a small open economy like Korea than the large economy of the United States. We also investigate the effects of misallocation and multiplier effects due to intermediate goods on industrial productivity and efficiency following the model of Jones (2011). Since the effects of misallocation can be intensified through the industrial input-output structure of the economy, we calculate the intermediate goods multiplier by Korea's 29 manufacturing industries. We find technical changes and the degree of inefficiency are related with the magnitude of multipliers, but we leave a fundamental identification problem to future research.
Executive Summary
Contributors
1. Introduction
2. Trade in Intermediate Goods and Pro-cyclical Productivity 2-1. The Model with Domestic and Imported Intermediate Goods 2-2. Empirical Results
3. Trade in Intermediate Goods, Misallocation and Productivity Loss in Korea 3-1. Model of Misallocation and Multiplier Effects in Input-Output Framework 3-2. Productivity Growth and Efficiency Changes in Industry-Panel Data