Preface

Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. Global Imbalance and the Asian Economies
1. The Hard-Landing Scenario
2. Implications
3. What Countries Can Do
4. Is There Scope for Coordinated Policy Adjustments?
5. Conclusion

III. Domestic Investment and External Imbalance in East Asia
1. Introduction
2. Economic Performance in the East Asian Economies after the Financial Crisis
3. Global Current Account Imbalances
4. How to Adjust to the Imbalance
5. Concluding Remarks

IV. Exchange Rate Regimes, Misalignments, and Interdependency in East Asia
1. Introduction
2. Theoretical and Methodological Background
3. Exchange Rates Misalignments of East Asian Currencies
4. World Imbalances, Monetary Adjustments, and East AsianInterdependency
5. Conclusion

V. The Future of Exchange Rate Adjustment in East Asia: Is Plaza II Possible?: From the Japanese Experiences in the Plaza Accord
1. Introduction
2. How Much Depreciation of the US Dollar is Needed to Decrease the Current Account Deficit?
3. Japanese Experience with the Plaza Accord
4. Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan after the Plaza Accord
5. Conclusion

VI. Global Imbalance and Exchange Rate Adjustments: Korea
1. Introduction
2. Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach
3. General Equilibrium Approach
4. Conclusion

VII. Global Imbalance and the Coordination of Exchange Rates:Korea
1. Introduction
2. Intervention and Sterilization in Korea
3. Intervention and Intra-regional Exchange Rate Stability
4. Implications for Monetary Cooperation in East Asia
5. Conclusion

VIII. Global Current Account Imbalances and Policy Implications for East Asia
1. Introduction
2. Monetary Policy
3. Fiscal Policy
4. Exchange Rate Policy
5. Structural Reform
6. Policy Issues for Korea

1. 글로벌 불균형과 신흥시장

- 글로벌 불균형의 무질서한 조정(disorderly correction)이 신흥시장에 미치는 영향은 무역을 통해서(trade channel)라기보다 대체로 금융을 통해(financial channel) 즉각적으로 이루어짐.

- 이러한 조정을 하는데 있어 모든 신흥국가가 똑같은 정책적 입장을 가질 필요는 없으나, 글로벌 경제와 금융시장의 상태가 양호할 때 조정이 시작된다면 조정과정은 쉬워질 수 있을 것임.

- 미국은 쌍둥이 적자의 근본적인 국내 원인을 규명하고 이를 시정함으로써 신흥국가와 더불어 글로벌 불균형 조정에 정책적으로 협력해야 함. (생략)