World Economy Brief KIEP Staff Papers
발간물
KIEP Opinions
The Irresistible Temptation of Brexit and its Foreseeable Tragic Ending
- 저자 KIM Heungchong
- 발간일2016-06-01
Brexit will bring about disastrous outcomes to the UK and the EU, and substantial negative impacts will fall upon the Korean and global economy, at least in the short term. First, Brexit implies that the UK escapes from the single market of the EU. Without a new preferential trade agreement with the EU, the UKs status in trade relations with the EU would be downgraded to Most Favored Nation status,which leads to a collapse in the UKs trade with the EU. It will become more difficult for them both to satisfy the criteria of origin. Second, Brexit can present an enormous challenge to the British service industries. Brexit will strip the British service providers of their privileged access, leading to a big loss in the UK service industries. Third, the UK may lose its place as the second largest country in terms of hosting FDI internationally after Brexit. Brexit would mean that the UK is no longer the gateway to the EU market. In addition, It would be implausible that Brexit leads to big gains to the UK, through significantly less contribution to the EU budget, independent immigration control, and freedom from burdensome EU regulations.
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