World Economy Brief KIEP Staff Papers
발간물
KIEP Opinions
The Greek Crisis: Development and Prospects
- 저자 KANG Yoo-Duk
- 발간일2015-06-19
The discussion of a Greek exit (Grexit)
from the Eurozone is dominating the news once again. Following the victory of
Syriza in the Greek election in January this year, economists and poli-cymakers
in Europe have been showing growing concerns about the negotiations between the
Greek Government and the Troika – the IMF, ECB and European Commission. In this
context, the possible development toward a Grexit creates political and
economic uncertainty in Europe. At this moment, it is difficult to forecast how
the Greek crisis will develop. Will Greece stay within the Eurozone in two
years, or leave behind a first precedent of exit from the Eurozone? The answer
depends more on political factors than on economic ones. However, it is
noteworthy to expect the following four possible scenarios; 1) Stay in the
Eurozone with additional support (from the Eurozone), 2) Technical default of
Greece in the Eurozone, 3) Capital controls with Eurozone membership, 4) Exit
from the Eurozone.
At the very moment this article is being
written, it is quite clear that both the Greek government and the Troika are
seeking to realize the first scenario. However, negotiations between Greece and
its creditors in Brussels are proving to be a classic game of chicken, and are
creating uncertainties.
Most of Greek’s government debt is held by
international public institutions and the share held by European banks is
small. This suggests that Greek crisis will be less likely to cause financial
turmoil in the European banking sector. The ECB’s strong commitment to dealing
with the crisis and the large volume of quantitative easing (QE) underway would
also work toward a positive outcome. However, the consequence of the Greek
crisis is still unpredictable, and this may start a domino effect in other
countries, which could destabilize an entire currency union. From Korea’s point
of view, it is important that ripple effects of the Greek crisis are minimized
and European economies continue to recover. Considering the trade and financial
linkage between Korea and Europe, more robust growth of European economies
would work in favor of Korea’s export to Europe, as it did in mid-2000s.
-
KIEP opinions_no60.pdf (560.4KB / 다운로드 2,040회)다운로드
대외경제정책연구원의 본 공공저작물은 "공공누리 제4유형 : 출처표시 + 상업적 금지 + 변경금지” 조건에 따라 이용할 수 있습니다. 저작권정책 참조
콘텐츠 만족도 조사
이 페이지에서 제공하는 정보에 대하여 만족하십니까?