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  • 신남방지역 주요국의 핀테크 발전과 협력방안: 인도, 태국, 말레이시아, 베트남, 인도..
    Recent Development of Fintech Industry of Five Major Countries of Southeast Asia and South Asia and Policy Recommendation for Korea to Enhance the Future Cooperation

       The spread of the Internet, the introduction of mobile devices, and the development of information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things have had a great impact on the financia..

    Choong Lyol Lee et al. Date 2020.12.31

    India and South Asia
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       The spread of the Internet, the introduction of mobile devices, and the development of information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things have had a great impact on the financial industry. Starting from long-distance non-face-to-face transfer of funds, asset management using artificial intelligence, credit analysis using big data, etc., the financial industry has changed substantially for the past few years and finally, fintech, a combined word of finance and technology, become a common terminology.
       The Korean government recognizes fintech as a major sector of the 4th industrial revolution, and it is currently promoting the fintech industry as a new growth engine for future economic development. In addition, it is implementing several practical policies such as suggesting fintech promotion activation plans and establishing a new organization called Fintech Center Korea. Meanwhile, as fintech industry expands, several problems such as protection of personal information and securing system stability begin to show up, and the government's regulation and supervision in this area has entered a new phase. The 「Electronic Financial Transactions Act」 was created, and the importance of personal information began to be more emphasized.
       This study attempts to analyze the recent development of fintech industries in five major countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and India in Southeast Asia and South Asia and to give policy recommendations for the government of Korea to improve the fintech industry of these countries. For this purpose, newly developed fintech products and business models as well as the financial industry and ICT infrastructure of these countries were examined. Government promotion policies and regulatory issued are given as well.
       It shows several important observations as follows. First, several electronic payment services applying plastic cards or online software have been used as retail payment means for these years. Second, account transfer services through online banking and mobile banking services using the Internet have been provided in most countries. Third, some of the loan-related services in online banking are provided, and securities transactions using the Internet are found to be actively conducted in all countries. Fifth, while fintech companies emerged from the early 2000s, their development speed had been very slow for years and they became active in the late 2010s. Sixth, fintech companies in these countries actively are using financial resource from not only their own countries but also foreign investors to secure investment. Seventh, while Vietnam was the latest to introduce fintech services among these five countries, its development speed was very fast.
       Meanwhile, applying our own definition of fintech indexes to these countries, it is shown that as of 2019, Malaysia and Thailand ranked the top among the five countries with almost similar scores. Vietnam, Indonesia, and India followed in that order. Looking at the changes in each country's index in 2010, 2015 and 2019, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam showed a significant increase during this period, while India and Indonesia did not
       It is highly recommended that Korean fintech companies closely work with local partners if they want to enter the markets of these countries. This is because fintech services are closely related to local finance and payment customs, so it is not easy for Korean companies to penetrate the local market independently. It should be considered that these countries do not have sufficient ICT infrastructure nationwide and they did not have capable human resource. It is advisable that they should take care of differences in market structure, payment infrastructure, customs and government regulations, etc. of each country to select the country and the product to launch there.
       The Korean government and public institutions may implement various supporting policies for Korean fintech companies. For example, programs to promote mutual understanding between Korean fintech companies and local companies can be carried out. Active programs to enhance the cooperation among financial regulatory agencies are also recommended. More specifically, it will be possible to provide on-site support through roadshows, inter-agency workshops, and invitational training of local regulatory agency employees. Also, the government's ODA project for these countries can also be promoted considering that all of these five countries are low-income countries trying to improve financial inclusion.
       Meanwhile, it is very important to reorganize the relevant laws and regulations on Fintech of the New Southern countries or to conduct research projects on them. For example, it may be necessary to review various related laws such as the 「Information Protection Act」 and 「Consumer Protection Act」 necessary for providing fintech services, and the coordination of these regulations can be carried out through the ODA project.
       Finally, an institutional arrangement in charge of these policy action should be established. Currently, their assignments were segmented into several institutions on ICT promoting institutions, export promoting ones, SME developing ones as well as financial service supervising and as a result, it is very difficult to coordinate.

  • 동남아시아 농업분야 개발협력사업 성공요인 분석: 지역사회 개발협력 사례 중심으로
    An Analysis of Success Factors for Agricultural Development Cooperation Projects in Southeast Asia: With a Focus on the Cases of International Cooperation for Community Development

       This study examines success factors and limitations for cases of agricultural development cooperation projects promoted in six Southeast Asian countries - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanm..

    Je Seong Jeon et al. Date 2020.12.31

    Economic relations, Economic cooperation Southeast Asia Ocean
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       This study examines success factors and limitations for cases of agricultural development cooperation projects promoted in six Southeast Asian countries - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar. As evidenced by the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the subsequent Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the sustainability of agriculture becomes the foundation for achieving key goals such as eradicating poverty and hunger and achieving food security. Considering the reality of Southeast Asia where the majority of the population resides in rural areas, agricultural development cooperation is also directly related to efforts to improve the livelihood of local residents and to alleviate the development gap across regions. Recognizing its importance, the Korean government has implemented various types of development cooperation projects by focusing on rural development. Among them, Southeast Asia is a major target region for Korea's agricultural development cooperation. From the total amount of Official Development Assistance (ODA) programs in the field of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries invested in Asia from 2010 to 2018, 82.2% of the funds was used in the Southeast Asia region. Of these, the total amount of support invested in these six countries accounts for 97% of the total support in Southeast Asia. In this regard, this study, which analyzes the cases of six Southeast Asian countries, is expected to provide meaningful implications for improving agricultural development cooperation projects.
       In this study, cases were arranged in a balanced manner corresponding to the strategic goals of the mid-term rural development strategy established by the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA). Two cases were assigned for each type so that the implications of the comparative study could be gleaned. The strategic goals of mid-term rural development strategy established by KOICA are as follows: increasing agricultural output consistently and strengthening marketability, inclusive and sustainable rural development, and conservation of natural resources and production systems of agricultural and fishing villages by responding to climate change. The cases of Vietnam and Laos can be classified into projects related to the goal of increasing agricultural productivity and strengthening marketability. The difference in the two cases is that Vietnam case one is improving the value chain and the other the use of appropriate technology to meet the goals. For inclusive rural development, Cambodia and Indonesia cases were assigned. Cambodia is a typical comprehensive rural development program that has applied the Saemaul Undong(new village movement) model. The case in Indonesia is similar, but is differentiated in that the project focuses more on reinforcing the residents' capabilities to manage village-level corporations. The case of the Philippines and Myanmar can be classified as a project to cope with climate change. The difference is that the Philippines focused on building an eco-friendly agricultural system through agroforestry, while Myanmar focused on forest management.
       This study also included and assigned cases in consideration of diversity among implementing agencies involved in development cooperation projects, in addition to categorizing all projects by strategic objectives of Korea’s agricultural development cooperation into three types as mentioned above. Since the so-called “Busan Declaration,” which aimed to expand and strengthen public-private partnership at the 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness held in Busan in 2011, has been adopted, the extent of participation by the private sector has greatly expanded in international development cooperation in Korea. This trend was also noticeable in the agricultural sector, which is focused by international development cooperation programs in Korea, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of public-private partnership projects and diversification of participants. In response, this study attempts to confirm the effect of private-sector participation by adding project cases led by the private sector in addition to projects directly undertaken by government agencies. Considering the diversity of participants in the private sector, cases were evenly organized into corporations, universities and academic institutions, and civil society organizations. Accordingly, among the cases covered in this study, only Cambodia was a project directly promoted by a government agency (KOICA), and all other cases consisted of projects involving the private sector. In the case of Vietnam, Korean private corporations participated; in the case of Indonesia, university took part; in the case of the Philippines, civil society organization participated; and in the case of Laos, academic organization took part. In the case of Myanmar, in addition to the ODA project carried out by government agencies (KOICA and Korea Forest Service), the project implemented by civil society organizations through the Social Contribution Fund was added as a case of comparative study.
       To hypothesize the factors of success, this study evaluates the performance of each case by comprehensively considering the results of previous studies, the five evaluation criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC), and KOICA's standard performance indicators for rural development and organized a checklist of success factors. Accordingly, the list of success factor checklists prepared in this study has 22 items, which are commonly identified by participating researchers in all cases. It is important to note that the items presented in the checklist are shown in a single table for comprehensive summary and comparative analysis of success factors identified in this study. However, having more items in the checklist does not necessarily indicate that it is a more successful project. It is difficult to expect that a single case will satisfy all items in the checklist as the characteristics of individual project is different and the goals are set differently. Therefore, the comparison table presented in this study should not be used to show on how many detailed items each case encompasses. Instead, it should be used as a reference to identify the following: what factors contributed to the success of the case, how these and other factors are combined, and how well they are implemented.
       This study consists of three parts: introduction, case studies, and conclusion. Chapter 1, an introductory part, describes the purposes and methods of the study, and the composition of each chapter. In Chapter 2, agricultural development cooperation trends in Southeast Asia have been briefly introduced and the relevant previous studies and domestic and international project evaluation criteria have been reviewed to establish hypotheses for the cases subject to study. The results of the review are the items listed in the success factor checklist, and the success factors presented in the case study results of the main body are described around the items identified in this list.
       Chapters 3 to 5, the main body of this paper, are the results of analysis of development cooperation projects conducted in the six countries of Southeast Asia, which are the subjects of this study, classified by Korea's medium-term agricultural development strategy goals. The results of analyzing the outline, major achievements, and success factors of each case have been presented. Chapter 3 deals with the cases of Vietnam and Laos as the project type of “sustainable farm output and marketability.” The “Saemaul Project for Developing Agriculture Value-Chain in Ninh Thuan Province, Vietnam” is the Rural Development Creating Shared Value(CSV) project that aims to increase the income of the poor in rural areas through the CJ-partnership with KOICA to establish an agricultural value chain ranging from production to processing, distribution, and sales through technical education and market development. It was evaluated as an excellent project in that it not only properly set up project components to achieve its goals and enlisted participation of various stakeholders, but also utilized the technology of the enterprises and linked development cooperation with corporate activities. However, this case leaves another lesson, given that the limitations of this type of participation were clear. If a corporate entity participates in the value chain process, improving the market and opening outlets can contribute to the increase in farmers' income. However, it is difficult to ensure sustainable performance if companies do not keep their presence at the final stage of the value chain. In this regard, this case provides a lesson that the mechanism of organizing farmers and encouraging their voluntary participation must be included in the project components, in order for the effectiveness and impact to be a main success factor beyond the efficiency.
       The “Lao-Korea Sustainable Technology Center Project” is noteworthy as it is a case that demonstrates how the utilization of appropriate technology, which has focused on supplying eco-friendly energy sources, can be successfully applied to community development. The key achievement of this case is that the technical limitations of utilizing existing resources of the community were overcome by putting appropriate technology available in the local context. The fact that Korea's academic organizations and local universities in Laos established an Appropriate Technology Center, shared information, trained human resources needed for the projects, and systematically managed the project outcome is considered to be an advantage of cooperation projects initiated by academic organizations. However, by establishing an Appropriate Technology Center alone, it was difficult to create coherent systems such as continuous training for ethnic minorities in mountainous areas, harvesting, marketing, and sales of crops. Nonetheless, it is remarkable that the appropriate technologies were disseminated and applied up to the local community level, aiming to share development benefits with the community and to enhance sustainability of local production.
       Chapter 4 dealt with Cambodia and Indonesia as cases of “inclusive regional development” projects. The study of “Self-Supporting Rural Development Project with Saemaul Undong (SMU)’s Participatory Approach” analyzed the success factors of the New Community Movement Project, which was carried out across 30 villages in Cambodia from 2014 to 2018. In this case, the situational diagnosis and appropriateness of strategy, establishing the foundation for economic self-reliance, institutionalizing the local people's participation, and systematic follow-up management were cited as success factors that contributed to achieving the goal. It was mainly thanks to the fact that the project's plan was established based on a close preliminary investigation after selecting a pilot village with high potential for success through a feasibility study, which actively reflected the residents' demand and opinions in the process of establishing a detailed project plan. The fact that the possibility of economic self-reliance was increased by establishing an agricultural production base, and the project was promoted using the existing village organization was the main driving force that led to the trust and participation of the residents. In addition, the fact that the leading entities made periodic checks, guidance, and evaluation so that the project will not deviate from the original plan and that project budgets were given out differently depending on evaluation results to encourage inter-village competition were an important success factor.
       The “Yogyakarta (Indonesia) Community Capacity Building Project,” introduced as one of the model cases for university-led development programs, is a case in which village corporations are successfully run by the village residents themselves even after the program is over. The achievements of this project is not just limited to economic effects represented by income growth. The more important aspects of this project is that it elicited personal change in the form of the residents' improved self-esteem and self-confidence while at the same time the community-wide impact in the form of camaraderie, trust, and more democratic relationships among the residents. To make sure that previous errors would not be repeated, the entities leading the project readjusted the strategies of follow-up projects. The success of the project is also attributed to the strengthening of the pre-investigation to establish strategies suitable for local conditions, and to the enhancement of women's role and desire to participate in social activities so that women of similar backgrounds can be members of village corporations while creating a system for custom-tailored education and self-reliance. In addition, the fact that the project drew cooperation from local universities, civil society organizations, and local governments was also key to the project's continued performance and success even after the project was completed.
       Chapter 5 analyzes development cooperation projects promoted in the Philippines and Myanmar as cases of projects to cope with climate change. The study of the “Eco-friendly Crop Diversification and Income Increase through Agroforestry in the Philippines” reminds us of the lesson that organizing residents and strengthening their capabilities through education are key to establishing an eco-friendly agricultural production base in the community in a stable manner. The relationship between local universities and the people’s organizations in the Philippines, for which Korean civil society organizations have nurtured over a long period of time, has been the foundation for success. It was mainly thanks to the fact that contents and area of the project was selected based on continuous communication, while the project was monitored step by step to supplement problems. In particular, the following were also important factors in the project: small-scale farmers with low economic standing selected as major subjects of the project, cooperation from local landowners and local governments to secure farmlands needed to practice agroforestry, and the participation of indigenous peoples who used to damage forests due to slashing and burning of fields.
       The study of the “Dry Zone Forest Management Capacity Building Project in Central Myanmar” presented comparative implications by comprehensively analyzing ODA projects conducted by government agencies and follow-up projects carried out by civil society organization. The forest greening project in central Myanmar, where forest degradation is accelerating, can be evaluated as a project that actively accommodated the development needs of a recipient country, given that it was a support project for the forest restoration and management project that the Myanmar government has pursued for a long time. It was found that the forest greening project, which had been promoted four times over the past 20 years, has been successful due to the use of appropriate technology in consideration of the topographical and soil conditions of the area. More importantly, as the project was carried out four consecutive times, the management of existing projects was carried out through follow-up projects. However, these achievements reveal the limitations of Korea's development cooperation projects which are mostly short term. This means that if no subsequent projects are created, sustainability cannot be guaranteed. The Community Forestry model, which was conceived by civil society organizations involved in the project's fourth round but not realized by the ODA initiative, is considered an alternative development model to enhance the sustainability of the project while reducing reliance on ODA. The possibility can be seen in the case of the “Happy Water School” project, which was proposed as a comparative case with the forest greening project promoted by the ODA project, was initiated by the civil society organization through the Social Contribution Fund. Through the achievements and limitations of the projects implemented by the two organizations, this case shows that continuity and connectivity of the projects are important factors in ensuring the sustainability of the development cooperation project. At the same time, this case study suggests that public-private cooperation needs to be promoted more substantially in a way that fully demonstrates the capabilities of civil society organizations that have accumulated empirical knowledge and technologies in related fields and ensures their autonomy.
       Chapters 6, which corresponds to the conclusions, provides a summary of the results of the case analysis from Chapter 3 to 5, as well as policy suggestions and limitations of this study. Within the empirical range of the cases covered in this study, the policy implications and suggestions are largely summarized into the following five. First, even in development cooperation model planed for mobilizing community people such as the New Community Movement project, it is difficult to expect ideal outcomes without understanding the local context. Consequently, the strategies need to be applied flexibly based on in-depth understanding of the local conditions. Cases of this study show that this type of project can be successful only when thorough basic survey is conducted, custom-tailored strategies is designed, and the people participate actively as major actors. The village's willingness to participate can be guaranteed when the implementation plan is established through a thorough preliminary survey, and is referred it back to the people's open discussion. As the Cambodian case testifies, it is also a strategic approach to gradually increase the size of the project as a way to raise the expectation of continuing the project while making the residents experience the effects and benefits of the project in a short period of time.
       Second, in the case of public-private partnership projects, it is necessary to increase their proportion in Korean international development cooperation in the future and encourage the participation of various agents, while respecting their autonomy. The bottom-up public-private partnership approach fits perfectly with Korea's development assistance model given its relatively small budget. The analysis results of the cases of public-private partnership projects introduced in this study showed that private enterprises participate in projects in ways to diversify horizontal networks based on their unique expertise and value contribution. The participation of private enterprises has been a major contributor to market development and value chain improvement. It was found that the participation of local universities provides knowledge and expertise in the local area, as well as the provision of manpower, while contributing greatly to enhancing the sustainability of the project through human resource development. The participation of Korean universities has the additional effect of contributing to the development of talents in Korea. The participation of civil society organizations showed the possibility of enhancing sustainability by projecting their own value orientation into development cooperation. The autonomy of private institutions should be further guaranteed in the future so that these advantages of public-private partnerships can be fully realized.
       Third, it is necessary to review the implementation plans of new and follow-up projects in the direction of extending the project period as much as possible and strengthening continuity and linkage with existing projects. If the project is implemented continuously for a long time, the likelihood of success increases exponentially. Therefore, unless it is obviously unsuccessful, it is necessary to extend the project period. However, in order to increase the effectiveness and sustainability of the project, it is necessary to sequentially increases the project size as described above. It is also necessary to avoid simple extension or continuation of the project period without these considerations. In this regard, when selecting a follow-up project or a new project, it is desirable to check whether the project plan has been established in the direction of enhancing the linkage between the projects by utilizing the infrastructure or various types of resources established through the existing projects, and whether the evaluation and improvement plan is appropriate.
       Fourth, more attention and support are needed for the introduction and application of appropriate technology. Support for appropriate technology considering the level of technology competence, resources that are available or can be mobilized, and local knowledge level of the host country can greatly contribute to enhancing the sustainability of development cooperation. Additional effects of environmentally friendly development that have emerged as an important issue in recent years can also be expected. Considering the agricultural structure of Southeast Asia centered on small farmers, the introduction and application of appropriate technology is even more urgent. An approach that suits the local environment is more desirable to raise the level of local technology rather than simply transferring and transplanting state-of-the-art technologies possessed by Korea.
       Finally, it should be emphasized that people are the decisive actors who hold the success or failure of the development cooperation project. Material and technical support by itself does not bring happiness. All projects are carried out by people. The participation of local residents in the recent international development cooperation literature is important, but the role of those providing development assistance is even more important. The success or failure of the development cooperation project can be clearly determined depending on what competent field managers are deployed and how he/she communicates with local residents. The field orientation that strives to escape self-centeredness, the democratic attitude that listens to opinions from local residents, the connectedness that seeks harmony between the project team and the village's political process, and the adaptability to find and solve problems early on are the virtues required by our development workers. In order to possess these virtues, local knowledge and local communication skills are essential as well as development expertise. Therefore, it is essential for our development assistance programs to include these capabilities as important evaluation criteria in project selection and continuity assessment so that appropriate field managers can be selected. In addition, the achievements of fostering local human resources should be added to the evaluation criteria of development cooperation projects. This is because it is precisely the local talents who can succeed and develop the achievements further even after international development project teams leave the village. To this end, it is necessary to improve evaluation criteria so that long-term and systematic human resource development plans can be included in individual projects, rather than providing resident education only for the period during which the project is undertaken.
  • 미·중 경쟁이 중남미 경제에 미치는 영향과 시사점
    An Effect of US-China Rivalry on Latin America and Its Implication

       Conflicts between the United States and China have been appearing in various forms across many regions; it can be seen in trade, commerce, politics, and diplomacy. In addition, it is likely that the conflicts between ..

    Sungwoo Hong et al. Date 2020.12.31

    Economic relations, International politics United States of America China
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       Conflicts between the United States and China have been appearing in various forms across many regions; it can be seen in trade, commerce, politics, and diplomacy. In addition, it is likely that the conflicts between the two countries intensify as the multilateralism would be threatened and protectionism would emerge in the post-COVID 19 era.
       Latin America is not an exception to this issue of the US-China conflict. In terms of national security, the United States has only option to react sensitively to the growing influence of China in Latin America, considering the geographical proximity between the United States and Latin America. For this reason, varied conflicts between the United States and China occur in Latin America.
       This study investigated the patterns of US-China rivalry that appeared in Latin America and analyzed the effects of this rivalry on Latin American countries in multifaceted ways. In Chapter 2, we examined how the US and Chinese foreign policies against Latin America have changed. Furthermore, we summarized specific policies against Latin America that were implemented under the Trump administration. The fundamental goal of the US policy was to occupy a regional hegemony in Latin America by giving them incentive and pressure. In particular, the Trump administration tended to weigh on Latin America in many sectors such as immigration, infrastructure, and so on. By contrast, Chinese policies against Latin America aim at maintaining cooperative relations with Latin America in the absence of specifics.
       In Chapter 3, we presented several examples of the US-China conflict that were observed in Latin America. This conflict was mostly prominent in the infrastructure sector, in which the United States was likely to press Latin America in order to exclude China from related projects.
       In Chapter 4, we conducted an empirical analysis by focusing on the trade dispute between the United States and China that occurred in 2018. Specifically, we analyzed the impact of the retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on exports of major Latin America countries to United States and China. In addition, we complementarily examined the effect of the trade dispute on the welfare of the Latin American countries with the CGE (Computational General Equilibrium) model. As a result of the empirical analysis, Brazil’s export to China have increased significantly since the imposition of the tariffs, and then the effect has disappeared over time. In contrast, there was no consistent pattern for countries other than Brazil. The impact of the US-China conflict on the welfare of the countries in Latin America was trivial.
       The conflict between the United States and China that occurs in Latin America could be an opportunity for Korean companies that seek to advance into Latin America. The companies may be given an unintended chance as Latin America is faced by US pressure to rule out China from infrastructure sector. Therefore, it would be important to monitor the political position of Latin American countries in terms of seeking opportunities to enter Latin America in the future. 

  • 현안대응자료 요약 모음집(2020 하반기)
    현안대응자료 요약 모음집(2020 하반기)

    KIEP Date 2020.12.31

    Economic outlook, Economic cooperation
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  • 동아시아 금융협력의 비전과 과제: CMIM 20년의 평가와 새로운 협력 방향
    East Asian Regional Financial Cooperation: Visions and Challenges

       After the East Asian financial crisis in 1998, the need to strengthen financial cooperation, including liquidity support at the regional level, emerged. Accordingly, the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) was signed at the A..

    Deok Ryong Yoon et al. Date 2020.12.30

    Economic cooperation, Financial integration
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       After the East Asian financial crisis in 1998, the need to strengthen financial cooperation, including liquidity support at the regional level, emerged. Accordingly, the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) was signed at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in 2000, and institutional efforts to strengthen regional financial cooperation have been continued for 20 years. The outcomes of this effort include the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) and the Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI). However, it is difficult to find countries actively utilizing them. For example, even though the blockade caused by the spread of COVID-19 in 2020 led to a decline in economic activity and suffered instability in the foreign exchange market, none of the ASEAN+3 countries attempted to resolve market instability by using regional financial cooperation mechanisms. Under this circumstance, we try to find the reason for the poor use of CMIM. First of all, CMIM is linked to the International Monetary Fund, so it cannot be free from the sigma effect. The size of support is also small, as well as using the holding amount. Chapter 2 pointed out the lack of leadership and vision as the cause of the failure to improve even though there was the awareness of such institutional weakness in the region. Therefore, a plan to increase the effectiveness of CMIM was suggested as follows. First, we suggest establishing a “CMIM Fund” and the future vision of regional financial cooperation by introducing regional currency cooperation and regional settlement systems in connection with financial cooperation. Second, It will also helpful to bring Australia and New Zealand as new member states. This is to take advantage of the developed financial industries of those countries while coming out of the sluggish financial cooperation caused by political conflicts between the existing member states. ABMI, which has been performing the most within the ASEAN+3 framework, has taken the strategy of presenting a new roadmap every certain period of time, thereby facilitating the introduction of financial infrastructure and institutions in the ASEAN region as well as the development of the local currency denominated bond market. However, due to the gap in the level of economic development among member countries, there are limits such as the continuing difference in the degree of development of the bond market between ASEAN+3 countries and the still large regional infrastructure investment gap. Chapter 3 proposes a multilateral and bilateral approach to improving the financial settlement infrastructure and expansion of regions including Australia and New Zealand to address these problems. In Chapter 2, the participation of Australia and New Zealand to improve the governance structure of CMIM was considered. In terms of the local currency bond market, it is interesting to discuss with Australia. As of the second quarter of 2020, the size of the bond market in Australia is $2.19 trillion, similar to the size of the Korean bond market. The peculiar thing is that the share of financial institution bonds is 53.9%, which is considerably higher than that of the US, UK, and Japan. In addition, as the share of raw materials in Australia’s export composition is close to 60%, the Australian dollar shows a high positive correlation with raw material prices. In other words, unlike most advanced countries’ currencies, it has the property as a risky asset that reacts sensitively to fluctuations in commodity prices. This can be interpreted as, for example, that there are many cases of moving in the opposite direction to Japanese yen assets, and it can be seen that it helps to organize an optimal portfolio. Therefore, attempts to expand ABMI’s regional reach, including Australia and New Zealand, which are pursuing policy strengthening of cooperation with ASEAN will be meaningful. Chapter 4 looks at monetary cooperation between East Asian countries and explores the possibility of new cooperation through the use of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in this region in the future. The fundamental reason why East Asian monetary cooperation has not been successful is that it has set a low-realistic goal of stabilizing exchange rates in the region. Therefore, we would like to consider setting a more specific goal of “cooperation in issuance and common use of CBDC” and think about ways to achieve more visible results. Still, the cross-border payment and settlement process involves problems due to high costs, risks, and uncertainty in transactions. If CBDC is introduced and can be used for international payment and settlement, this problem can be solved in terms of improving the efficiency of payment settlement and promoting the internationalization of the local currency. However, in order to realize this, cooperation between central banks of regional countries is essential for the holding and using the CBDC. Cooperation through the CBDC may lead to a change in the international monetary order centered on the US dollar, and in the process of cooperation, international capital movements may be promoted, leading to further fluctuation of exchange rates. However, rather than reducing options due to excessive concern about this, we suggest that the time has come when efforts to realize the potential of cooperation through CBDC are needed. The effect of promoting the international use of Korean won could also be achieved. More specifically, it is possible to consider raising the “cooperation through CBDC” as a new agenda at the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In Chapter 5, we present new options that can be considered in order to escape the inactivity of financial cooperation in East Asia and cultivste the cooperation. In other words, from the perspective of change the existing cooperation structure centered on ASEAN+3 into a new one, it is transforming into regional development cooperation and expanding and moving its center country to Northeast Asia. The Northeast Asian region has great growth potential and enormous demand for investment, as it is called “the last major economic resort of the Asian continent”. However, since funds are insufficient to satisfy this, the establishment of a development financial institution in Northeast Asia is proposed as an additional method like Northeast Asia Development Bank, Northeast Asia Infrastructure Fund, and Northeast Asia Development Corporation. As a result of comparing and analyzing these three alternatives from various angles, the Northeast Asia Development Corporation seems to be the most suitable. The reason is that it does not require membership qualifications in international financial institutions when supporting funds first, allowing efficient allocation of funds. In addition, development-related banks in each country can avoid the form of international organizations, and local governments instead of central governments can participate, making it easy to establish. In addition, there are many other advantages, such as encouraging private participation and, from the standpoint of Korea, fostering the asset industry and enabling efficient use of long-term capital. However, in consideration of the fact that it cannot be free from political issues, some cautions are needed regarding the implementation system of the Northeast Asia Development corporation. First, rather than the government’s direct initiative, development banks, such as development banks and export-import banks, should lead the establishment, while encouraging the participation of private financial institutions in the region by emphasizing its commerciality to attract public-private cooperation. Second, it is not necessary to exclude China’s participation itself, but it is desirable to avoid letting China play a key role. This is because China’s pursuit of a one-on-one route and already high in its own fundraising capacity cannot rule out the possibility that this participation will be part of an external strategy rather than a regional development and cooperation level. Third, the Northeast Asian Development Corporation should also actively promote cooperation with existing multilateral development banks, such as Asian Development Bank (ADB) and European Bank for Reconstruction an Development (EBRD). Fourth, in order to focus on the aspect of financing necessary for the development of the Northeast Asian region, it can have a practical effect to establish the Northeast Asian region as the scope of activities of the Northeast Asian Development Corporation rather than encompassing all countries subject to economic cooperation with the New Northern Policy. In Chapter 6, we also propose a transition to the subject of financial cooperation, which is the transition from ASEAN countries to Central Asia, a relatively underdeveloped partner with high demand for development finance. These regional alternatives are Mongolia and Central Asia, which have been alienated from the target of financial cooperation so far in order to prepare Korea’s response strategy to Japan, led by the Asian Development Bank, and China, led by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Cooperation is needed to encompass five countries (hereinafter, Mongolia and five Central Asian countries collectively referred to as Central Asia). Specifically, the “Korea-Central Asian Financial Cooperation and Training Center (tentative)” will be established as soon as possible for Central Asia to maintain the momentum of financial cooperation, and to expand the scope of cooperation to macro-financial fields including KRW settlement cooperation. This should be promoted in a direction that supports cooperation in the real sector, such as discovering new growth engines of the Korean economy in the long term, and finally, we need to build Korea-Europe-Central Asia’s trilateral financial cooperation system through cooperation with Europe, especially EBRD. As discussed above, this study proposes a new policy alternative to overcome the limitations of East Asian financial cooperation. Of course, more precise preparation is needed to implement these alternatives, and it is also acknowledged that the topics covered in this study are only a part of regional financial and monetary cooperation. However, in overcoming the limitations so far, it is hoped that it can be a contribution that provides at least a hint of thought, and it is expected to be more concrete in future studies.
  • 개혁·개방이후 중국의 제조업 분야 산업정책과 산업구조 변화 연구
    A Study on the Changes in China’s Industrial Policies and Industrial Structures in Manufacturing Sector after China’s Reform and Opening

       As China's recent industrial advancement has changed the trade structure between Korea and China from a complementary relationship to a more competitive one, the need for research on Chinese industrial policy has incr..

    Wonseok Choi et al. Date 2020.12.30

    Industrial structure, Industrial policy China
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       As China's recent industrial advancement has changed the trade structure between Korea and China from a complementary relationship to a more competitive one, the need for research on Chinese industrial policy has increased. This report aims to analyze and evaluate changes in major industrial policies and industrial structures following China's reform and opening, thus enabling better understanding of China's industrial policies and forecasting the direction of China's industrial policies during its 14th Five-Year Plan period. In particular, unlike previous studies, this report classified China's major manufacturing policies into four types after China's reform and opening, and proposed Korea-China industrial cooperation through policy analysis and comprehensive evaluation.
       Chapter 2 divides China’s industrial policies into four stages after the initiation of reform and opening-up, and described the trend of major industrial policies by period. The first stage is the market economy exploration stage (1978-1991), when industrial policies first began to be introduced in China, focusing on adjusting proportional relations such as imbalances between the agricultural and industrial sectors, and light and heavy industries. The second stage is the initial construction stage of the market economy (1992-2001), during this period, policies to foster key industries were implemented, direct intervention by the government in promoting industrial policies was reduced and the transition to guide-type intervention began. The third stage is the stage of full-scale and in-depth reform (2002-2012), when the government began to foster high-tech industries after declaring the path to “new industrialization” in November 2002. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the government has also promoted strategic emerging industries as a new growth engine, while implementing 10 major industrial promotion and coordination policies in response to the issue of oversupply. From 2013 to the present, various strategies to strengthen manufacturing power, such as the China Manufacturing 2025 and Internet+ initiatives, are being pursued to further promote full-scale reform within the country. However, as competition for trade and technology hegemony between the U.S. and China intensified, new industrial policies were needed to cope with this, and the 14th Five-Year Plan presented the direction of industrial policies focused on securing core technologies through innovation.
       Chapter 3 summarizes and evaluates China's industrial development policy, industrial restructuring policy, industrial organization policy, industrial technology policy and the timing characteristics and direction of policy measures. The industrial development policy was carried out by selecting industries that did not meet market demand at each period to supply resources first, and to intensively foster industries that will lead the national economy now or in the future. In this process, the size of the industry grew and the industrial structure advanced, but indiscriminate overlapping investments in industries designated by the government resulted in oversupply or quantitative growth without yielding core technologies. To solve the problem of oversupply, the Chinese government implemented various industrial restructuring policies for each period.
       China's industrial restructuring policy changed from a uniform control of production and construction of various industries to an approach where specific targets were set for the liquidation of redundant businesses or management and support measures to make each local government and company more active in removing underdeveloped facilities. In addition, instead of determining targets based on size, comprehensive indicators such as technology and environmental pollution began to be considered as well. However, the concrete achievements of these policies still remain limited due to the sheer scale of long-term policies conducted and the protection of local governments.
       Through industrial organization policy the government engages market structures and market activities to maximize market performance. Implemented since the reform and opening of the market, the policy has focused on establishing a modern corporate system and the order of market competition. The recent rapid growth of the digital economy is expected to have a significant impact on China's industrial ecosystem and business activities, leading to the revision of the anti-trust law in 2020 for the first time in 11 years in response to the possibility of a small number of Internet (platform) conglomerates exploiting a monopoly in the market.
       Industrial technology policies are a series of policies enacted by the Chinese government to promote industrial development, enhance industrial technology innovation capabilities, and advance industrial technology. For about 40 years since the reform and opening of its market, China's industrial technology policy has evolved through the stages of simple technology introduction, to absorption and assimilation of these technologies, and then to autonomous innovation. Technology development is increasingly being led by the corporate sector, instead of directly planned and controlled by the government. Recently, policies to promote and support industrial-academic cooperation in China are expected to be implemented to drive the independent development of key technologies in response to U.S.-China technology conflicts.
       In the 1980s, China mainly used government intervention measures such as government investment, state-owned bank loans, tax revenues and plans, but after the reform to introduce a socialist market economy, direct intervention by the government has gradually been reduced and replaced with market-based means applied in the form of state guidance and economic or legal measures. The government is expected to focus more on identifying efficient industrial policies through means that utilize the market rather than direct means such as government subsidies, which run the risk of trade disputes.
       The major milestones of China's industrial policy can be summed up as its rise as the world's largest manufacturer, securing stability in industrial development through long-term policy implementation, upgrading industrial structure, and technological development. However, increasing problems with overlapping investments and oversupply, increasing dependence on state-owned companies and improving inefficiency, and international disputes over industrial policies are major policy tasks to be resolved.
       Chapter 4 analyzes changes in China's industry, trade, and Korea-China trade structure due to the effects of industrial policies after reforms and opening, as presented in Chapter 2 and 3. First, the core of China's industry has shifted from light industries to heavy industries in accordance with policies to upgrade the industrial structure. Second, due to policies to foster high-tech industries since the early 1990s, the proportion of high-tech industries has increased and the technology level of manufacturing has increased. Third, localization and domestic industrialization are proceeding in line with policies to foster domestic companies. According to these changes in China's industrial structure, Korea's exports to China have gradually advanced from labor-intensive to technology-intensive industries, while Korea's import and export dependence on China has increased. However, as Korea's coefficient of correlation between exports and investment to China is gradually increasing, the coefficient of inducement of imports and exports to China per unit of investment in China has continued to decline.
       Based on this analysis, the results of a panel regression analysis of Korea-China industrial data from 1997 to 2017 showed that Korea's exports to China increased as China's exports to the world increased. In addition, there was a trend in which Korea's exports to China increased since 1997, but this rise tapered off between 2012 and 2017, indicating that the synchronization of Korean and Chinese exports decreased. This result indicates that Korea has driven export growth to China in the past by supplying intermediate goods needed for China's heavy industry development policy and export-led growth method, but has failed to respond to changes in demand caused by the advances in China’s industrial structure and technological innovation policies centered on high-tech industries.
       Chapter 5 presented trade risks and Korea's strategies due to the impact of friction between the U.S. and China, and changes in the direction of China's industrial policy. First of all, we propose ways to cope with U.S.-China friction by diversifying export markets, analyzing changes in the Korea-China industrial cooperation environment, preparing industrial technology protection policy in Korea, diversifying global supply chains and participating in China’s value chain to target its domestic market.
       We also emphasize the need for research on industrial policies and the process of creating related industrial ecosystems as China's industrial policies gradually change from simple to comprehensive policies. In response to the expansion of China's industrial influence in state-of-the-art technology, there is a need to redefine long-term industrial policies in new industries. This was followed by a proposal of promising areas to focus cooperation efforts, identified by comparing China's industrial policies and related strategies in Korea.
       As our analysis indicates that Korea's supply capacity for China's new growth industry will become increasingly important in choosing opportunities and strategies for Korea-China economic cooperation, our study divides products in the areas of materials, parts, and equipment according to three classifications based on China's growth and Korea's trade competitiveness.
       Finally, efforts to maximize the performance of the Korea-China FTA in China's growth industry, urge China to comply with international rules and rules in promoting new industries, respond to China's independent standardization, and strengthen Korea-China cooperation in digital economy and environment.
  • 일본의 ‘사회적 과제 해결형’ 4차 산업혁명에 관한 연구
    Japan’s 4th Industrial Revolution Efforts in Response to Social Challenges

       This research aims to present policy implications to the Korean government and private companies by providing an in-depth analysis on how the Japanese government and companies deal with the country’s so-called “soci..

    Gyupan Kim et al. Date 2020.12.30

    ICT economy, Economic cooperation Japan
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       This research aims to present policy implications to the Korean government and private companies by providing an in-depth analysis on how the Japanese government and companies deal with the country’s so-called “social challenges” using the technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution. In order to do this, this study chose 1) health, medical care and nursing, 2) manufacturing, logistics and mobility, and 3) regional revitalization as its fields of focus, and examined how the Japanese government and private companies utilize the 4th Industrial Revolution technologies—namely, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, etc.—in addressing the country’s social issues.
       In chapter 2, “Japan’s ‘Social Challenges’ and the 4th Industrial Revolution,” this research analyzes the social cost of Japan’s low birthrate and aging population in terms of its fiscal sustainability, medical costs and regional imbalance. Then it looks into the Japanese government’s 4th Industrial Revolution policy and the digital transformation (DX) movement further stimulated by the spread of COVID-19.      
       Chapter 3, “Health, Medical Care and Nursing Sector,” examines the Japanese government’s efforts to utilize health data including regulatory reforms and its “Data Health Reform” policy. It also introduces some model cases of corporate-level utilization of health and medical big data. It was noted that remote medical treatment is rapidly spreading in Japan, after the country temporarily eased restrictions on remote medical care in April, 2020, following a spike in the coronavirus cases.
       In chapter 4, “Manufacturing, Logistics and Mobility,” this research firstly analyzes the Japanese government’s efforts to connect different manufacturing companies’ digital platforms, and presents some case studies of Japanese manufacturing companies’ utilization of 4th Industrial Revolution technologies, such as AI, IoT, 5G, etc. Next, in the mobility sector, this research examines the Japanese government’s movements in the area of Mobility as a Service (MaaS), including its roadmap, pilot operations, policy supports and commercialization efforts. Finally, the Japanese government’s policy supports for DX in the logistics field were analyzed. 
       Chapter 5, ”Regional Revitalization,” introduces Japan’s efforts at dealing with the growing regional imbalance by using the technologies stemming from the 4th Industrial Revolution. This chapter focuses on the three topics of creating a regional IoT Platform, implementing 5G networks and smart city construction as distinctive examples of Japanese (central and regional) governmental efforts at regional revitalization.  
       Finally, chapter 6 suggests policy implications for the Korean government. First, for the health, medical care and nursing sector, this research presents three proposals for the government: institutional reforms and data standardization in healthcare, broader collection and utilization of nursing data, and engaging in an active discussion on how to expand telemedicine. In the manufacturing, mobility and logistics sector, this research suggests supply chain optimization across the entire chain, as opposed to merely implementing smart technologies in a manufacturing plant, and introduction of MaaS and DX in the mobility and logistics fields. Regarding regional revitalization, this research draws policy implications from Japan’s regulatory reforms, which helped shift the focus of its regional DX policy from “technology” to “problem- solving,” and from a supply (provider)–driven approach to a demand-driven approach. 


    정책연구브리핑
  • 신용공급 변동이 경제성장 및 금융위기에 미치는 영향
    A Study on Credit Supply, Economic Growth and Financial Crisis

       This study investigates the impacts of credit supply on economic growth and financial crisis. While credit supply helps boost economic growth through resource reallocation, excess credit supply can make the economy an..

    Hyosang Kim et al. Date 2020.12.30

    Financial crisis, Financial policy
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       This study investigates the impacts of credit supply on economic growth and financial crisis. While credit supply helps boost economic growth through resource reallocation, excess credit supply can make the economy and financial market more vulnerable. In the event of a negative shock to the financial or real sector in a situation where credit is excessively supplied, asset prices sharply fall as the deleveraging proceeds. Moreover, economic activity can be sharply shrunk, thereby expanding the width and duration of the recession. The rapid credit crunch and stock price plunge that appeared in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the phenomenon in March 2020.
       Chapter 2 presents qualitative analysis and event studies to describe the relationship between credit supply, economic growth, and financial crisis. In the qualitative analysis, we visualize the long-term relationship by comparing the household, corporate, and government credit with macroeconomic variables in each country. In the cross-country comparison, the correlation of household credit and consumption is negative, while that of corporate credit and investment is positive, suggesting that the impact on economic growth is different for each type of credit. Moreover, to examine the relationship between private credit and GDP growth, we find that GDP generally grows faster in the group where private credit expands rapidly. This relationship, however, blurs in the highest-income group. In the event study, we consider the relationship between credit expansion and the financial crisis. We observe that private credit increased significantly before the banking crisis, including the global financial crisis. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in advanced economies.
       Chapter 3 examines a dynamic relationship between private and government credit and various macro variables by estimating the panel VAR model. Household credit shocks tend to increase real GDP in the short-run, mainly by boosting consumption. However, in the long-run, real GDP tends to be decreased by appreciating the real exchange rate, increasing non-tradable goods production, and decreasing productivity and current accounts surplus. On the other hand, the corporate credit shock is opposite to the household credit shock. Its impacts on real GDP are relatively small, leading to the real exchange rate decreasing and the production of trade goods. The macro variable responses to the government credit shocks are clearly distinguished from private credit shocks, but overall significance remains statistically low.
       In Chapter 4, we analyze the effect of credit supply on the possibility of a financial crisis using the panel probit model. We find that the household credit expansion significantly increases the probability of a banking crisis, while it does not affect the probability of a currency crisis. On the other hand, corporate credit expansion increases the probability of all types of crises. Government credit expansion tends to increase the probability of a government debt crisis. However, it is statistically insignificant for the period before the other type of crisis, suggesting that the rapid government credit expansion in response to a financial crisis rather than the level of government credit increases the likelihood of a government debt crisis. Moreover, government credit expansion has the effect of lowering the probability of a banking crisis and a currency crisis, supporting the counter-cyclicality of government credit.
       In 2020, in the responses to the economic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, the level of both private and government credits are sharply increased due to the massive fiscal stimulus programs and expansionary monetary policy. The impacts of household, business, and government credit on the macroeconomics can differ, so policymakers should pay attention to the level of total credit and the change in the composition of credit. In particular, it should be aware that the economic stimulus through short-term boosting of aggregate demand can lead to a deeper downturn by deteriorating in long-run productivity.
    정책연구브리핑
  • 국내 증권시장에서 외국인 자금 이동 결정요인 분석: 금리와 환율을 중심으로
    Determinants of Foreign Security Investment: Focusing on Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

       As the linkage between domestic and foreign financial markets grows stronger, concerns have been raised about the inflow and outflow of foreign investment capital as a source of financial instability whenever the fina..

    Deok Ryong Yoon et al. Date 2020.12.30

    Financial policy, Exchange rate
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       As the linkage between domestic and foreign financial markets grows stronger, concerns have been raised about the inflow and outflow of foreign investment capital as a source of financial instability whenever the financial market becomes unstable. This is because, as the volume of capital inflows and outflows increases and volatility rises in the market, the financial system becomes more vulnerable and financial market price variables and macroeconomic uncertainty are increasing. Considering that opening the capital market is not an option, it becomes essential to examine the determinants of foreign investment to maximize the benefits of foreign capital inflows and outflows for sound growth in the real sector as well as the financial sector. Accordingly, this study attempts to produce evidence-based policy implications by empirically analyzing the determinants of the inflow and outflow of foreign investment funds.
       Chapter 2 examines the trends of foreign investment-related systems and capital flows. Regulations in the system for foreign securities investment began to ease after the late 1990s, increasing the volume of foreign funds flowing into the stock and bond markets (Table 1). In particular, it has been observed that index funds have increased due to a decrease in active investment and increase in passive investment in the stock market. Also, the turnover rate of foreign stock investment is rising. In the bond market, foreign investment is continuously increasing, and due to the increase in duration and diversification of investors, changes are being detected both in quantitative and qualitative terms. From this, three policy implications can be drawn. First, the increase in passive funds in equity investment implies that the importance of risk management for financial market stability increases. Second, since the movement of bond funds is often determined by the volatility of the exchange rate, management of volatility in the foreign exchange market may be an important condition for the stable maintenance of foreign bond investment. Third, it is necessary to improve the investment environment to increase the inflow of foreign investment funds into the Korean financial market and maintain a long-term growth trend. To this end, it is necessary to consider enhancing the stability of the foreign exchange market by strengthening the global financial safety net and strengthening the transparency of foreign investment-related systems.
       Chapter 3 analyzes the determinants of foreign investors’ stock investment, and the main results and implications derived from them are as follows. First, when foreigners invest in domestic stocks, they consider the foreign interest rate (push factor) as a more important decision-making factor than the domestic interest rate (pull factor). This suggests that Korea’s monetary policy may have a limited impact on the inflow and outflow of foreign investment funds. Second, foreigners’ selling and buying of stocks were affected by different rates of return. When purchases and sales of stocks were at low levels, the Dow Jones yields was an important factor in buying stocks, but the KOSPI return was an important factor in selling stocks. Third, depending on the policy target and the market phase, different policy measures should be selected. For example, there was a difference between a model well-suited to explain the net buying of stocks and another to explain the buying and selling of stocks. Net buying of stocks was best explained by global liquidity, while buying and selling of stocks were better explained by risk indicators. In addition, since the effective determinants differ between the two phases and the sign (direction) of the effect on the variables is different, this implies that the policy authorities can achieve the intended policy objectives by considering different policy measures according to the phases. Fourth, when the outflow of foreign stock investment is high, volatility is high as well. In general, the ripple effect caused by the outflow of foreign funds occurs in the short term, and given that policy responses are difficult, it poses a huge policy challenge for policy authorities. Foreign capital outflows are highly volatile, and the effects of foreign capital outflows can occur in the very short term and disrupt the financial market, as experienced in the Asian foreign exchange crisis and global financial crisis.
       Chapter 4 analyzes the determinants of foreign investors’ bond investment, and four main points can be derived from this. First, foreign bond investment is sensitive to interest rates and exchange rates. Interest rate was a significant determinant not only for the total amount of net purchase, but also for each maturity and phase. The effects of interest rates on long-term bonds were particularly significant in the case of bond purchases. As the proportion of long-term bond investment is likely to increase gradually in the future, it is necessary to understand the impact of interest rate variables on bond purchases. Won-euro and won-dollar exchange rates had a significant effect on both short- and long-term bonds when the level of foreign investment was high. Therefore, when the size of foreign investment is large, attention should be paid to the effect of exchange rates on foreign investment. Second, foreign stock investment and bond investment are related to each other. Therefore, when implementing a policy related to foreign investment, it is necessary to clarify the object of the policy implementation. In addition, bond investment within three years of maturity and net purchase of stocks mainly had a complementary relationship. This points to the need to also closely observe foreigners’ investment trends in the stock market when analyzing foreign investment trends in the bond market. Third, for foreign bond investment, variables related to developed markets are more significant than those related to emerging markets. Therefore, in order to predict foreign bond investment trends, it is necessary to closely examine the situation in the stock markets of developed countries. Fourth, macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on foreigners’ bond investment, and are particularly important determinants when foreigners invest in long-term bonds. Therefore, it is important to increase the stability of macroeconomic variables in order to maintain stable levels in foreign bond investment in the future.
       Chapter 5 proposes three policy implications based on the current status of foreign stock investment and empirical results. First, it was proposed to consider the qualitative aspects of expanded foreign securities investment funds to develop the financial market and mitigate volatility in securities prices and foreign exchange markets. Next, it is necessary to reinforce monitoring of securities investment in order to accurately grasp the policy environment and design policies accordingly. Lastly, there is a need to improve the governance structure for external soundness to enable integrated management and supervision of the foreign stock and bond markets and foreign exchange markets that are linked to each other although they are different markets.

    정책연구브리핑
  • 아시아·태평양 지역의 디지털화와 한국의 협력방안
    Digitalization in Asia-Pacific Region and Policy Implications for Korea

       This study examines the progress of digitalization in the Asia- Pacific region, compares and analyzes the digital transformation policies of major economies in the region using text mining techniques, and demonstrates..

    Yungshin Jang et al. Date 2020.12.30

    APEC, ICT economy Southeast Asia Ocean
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       This study examines the progress of digitalization in the Asia- Pacific region, compares and analyzes the digital transformation policies of major economies in the region using text mining techniques, and demonstrates the effect of the digital gap on economic performance by dividing the regional economic development stage by individual country. Also, an empirical analysis was performed on how the difference in access to digital technology and intensity of use has an impact not only on the overall economic performance of a country but also labor market performance through the mechanism of individual human capital accumulation. The analysis results suggest APEC and its member economies focus their capabilities on digital inclusion policies. And the results propose a direction for strengthening APEC’s function as an international cooperation platform for digital inclusion in the region, and a cooperation plan for strengthening digital cooperation in Korea.
       Chapter 2 compares the progress of digitalization in each stage of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region and the digital competitiveness of significant economies in the region, and examines the status of digital economy cooperation in APEC fora. The digital gap between high- and low-income member economies of APEC is examined using ICT indicators published by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). According to the results of our comparative analysis of digital competitiveness in 10 major developing economies in the region, using the IMD World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, etc., there was a digital gap by income group within APEC in terms of the quality of ICT infrastructure utilization and companies’ ICT utilization. But, fortunately, the gap appears to be shrinking in terms of ICT accessibility. After adopting the APEC Action Agenda for the Digital Economy and APEC Internet and Digital Economy Roadmap for the first time in APEC’s core agenda in 2017, the number of digital economy-related cooperation projects within the APEC fora has steadily increased.
       In Chapter 3 text mining techniques are used to compare and analyze critical areas of digital transformation policy pursued by major developing economies such as Malaysia and Vietnam and leading APEC members in the digital sector such as Korea and the United States, China, and Japan. While certain differences exist, digitally leading countries tend to focus on basic and applied research, talent attraction, and development. In contrast, digitally developing economies focus on public sector reform and infrastructure creation. The results also confirm that both digitally developed and developing economies’ groups have focused on using digital transformation as a tool for economic growth rather than improving digital inclusion and international cooperation. Also, these policies have been implemented within each country rather than as a form of international cooperation.
       Chapter 4 analyzes the impact of progress on digitalization in the Asia-Pacific region on economic growth and income inequalities. For this, we measure the degree of digitalization at the country level by ICT accessibility (e.g., the sum of fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 people and mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people) and ICT use intensity (e.g., the ratio of fixed broadband subscriptions to individuals using the internet). We first study the relation between digitalization and economic growth using country-level panel data. We construct two samples for comparison: one the total sample, which consists of 114 economies globally, and the other the APEC sample, which consists of 17 out of the 21 APEC member economies for which data was available. According to the estimation results, economies with larger ICT accessibility have higher economic growth rates for both samples. We also find that ICT use intensity increases economic growth rates for both samples. We also study the relation between digitalization and income inequality using country-level panel data. We construct two samples for comparison: one the total sample, which consists of 134 economies globally, and the other the APEC sample, which consists of 18 out of 21 APEC member economies for which data was available. According to the estimation results, ICT accessibility tends to reduce Gini coefficients for both samples. Regarding the effects of ICT use intensity, the results are reversed: ICT use intensity tends to raise the Gini coefficient for both samples. But the estimates are not statistically significant for the APEC sample. We further study if the effects of digitalization on income inequalities are different across income levels. For high-income economies, ICT accessibility and ICT use intensity negatively affect income inequalities, while for low-income economies, ICT accessibility tends to improve income inequalities.
       In Chapter 5, we study how digitalization affects labor market outcomes using individual workers’ survey data. In particular, we investigate how individual workers’ digitalization affects the probability of being employed and wages. For this, we produce the survey data of individual workers in Korea and Vietnam. We select Korea, which belongs to the high-income group in the APEC economies and Vietnam, which belongs to the low-income group. We measure the level of individual workers’ digitalization classifying individual workers’ ICT accessibility, ICT use intensity, and interaction between ICT use intensity and human capital. According to the estimation results, workers who use ICT more intensively are more likely to be employed and to receive higher wages for both Korea and Vietnam samples. However, the statistical relationships are weak in the Vietnam sample. The different results between Korea and Vietnam samples may be because there are more ICT skill-related jobs in Korea than in Vietnam. Here, workers’ ICT use intensity is measured by the ratio of working hours spent using the internet (or computer or mobile phone) to total working hours. We also measure ICT use intensity qualitatively by constructing an index based on information about workers’ various ICT-related activities such as obtaining data and information via the internet, looking for and applying for a job via the internet, internet banking experience, etc. We find that workers with higher ICT use quality index are more likely to be employed and have higher wages for the Vietnam sample. These results imply that the variables that measure ICT use intensity qualitatively capture better the labor market impacts rather than quantitative approaches. Regarding the effects of ICT accessibility, we find that the results are different between the two samples. For the Korean sample, ICT accessibility does not much affect labor market outcomes, while ICT accessibility improves the probability of being employed for the Vietnam sample. This result is mainly    due to the difference in ICT accessibility between Korea and Vietnam: Almost all workers in the Korea sample can access ICT-related devices such as mobile phones and computers and the internet.
       The analyzed results above indicate that APEC and its member economies should focus their policy capabilities on digital inclusion to minimize the side effects of the national and individual digital divide which can appear as digitalization progresses. Chapter 6 presents three criteria to be considered when APEC sets the direction to strengthen its function as an international cooperation platform for digital inclusion in the region. First, considering convergence is a prevalent feature of the digital economy, the collaboration within APEC fora should be emphasized in digital inclusion cooperation across various subjects and areas. Second, in consideration of APEC’s economic status as the world's most extensive regional cooperation body, cooperation among the APEC economies should be emphasized so that the different interests of the economies in various economic development stages on digitalization and digital inclusion can be synchronized and balanced. Third, considering APEC has consistently emphasized public-private cooperation, unlike other international organizations and regional councils, the triangular cooperation channel between government, private enterprises, and experts within APEC should be effectively utilized on digital inclusion.
       Under these three principles, in strengthening the APEC’s function as a platform for digital inclusion, we present five cooperation initiatives for Korea, as a leading economy in the digital sector, to establish itself early on in the agenda for digital inclusion within APEC and become a rule-setter in the area. First, we propose that APEC build a collaborative culture among APEC fora by improving project evaluation criteria. Considering the issues have cross-cutting and convergence features, this improvement could induce APEC to address more digital inclusion issues and endorse more joint projects on digital inclusion. Second, Korea could propose a project on discovering effective digital inclusion policies within APEC economies and sharing their success stories. For example, based on its experiences with the Digital New Deal policy, Korea could play a leading role in proposing research projects on holding workshops or publishing books about best policies and practices regarding digital inclusion. Third, Korea can position itself as an early mover in digital inclusion agenda in the healthcare sector by proposing or cooperating with other APEC economies on digital healthcare projects, considering the importance of digital healthcare in the post-pandemic world. For example, building and improving on the “K-Quarantine” online platform in cooperation with other economies interested in the platform could be a promising approach. It would be possible for Korea to beneficially share its strong experience and rich data in combating COVID-19 with other APEC members through the online platform. Fourth, we also suggest that Korea should play a leading role in devising and improving digitalization measurement indexes and indicators, taking into account the stages of economic development and conditions in the APEC region. These could contribute to strengthening research on digital inclusion within the APEC regions by providing essential data to study digital inclusion, such as measuring the impacts of digitalization or digital divide on economic growth or inequality. Fifth, we propose establishing an digitalization integrated data information system for the APEC region to collect and manage data showing the status of digitization of APEC member economies in the long term. To make it possible, as an ICT leader, Korea should play an active role in the process of designing and constructing the system.
    정책연구브리핑

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