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  • 인도의 국영기업 주도 경제개발전략과 한국-인도 협력 방안
    The Role of Central Public Sector Enterprises in India’s Development and Opportunities for Strengthening Korea-India Economic Partnership

    India’s state enterprises, or central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), are playing a key role in numerous industries. Although the country began its economic liberalization in the early 1990s, large-scale privatization did not ..

    Kyunghoon Kim et al. Date 2024.12.31

    economic development, economic cooperation, industrial policy India and South Asia
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    India’s state enterprises, or central public sector enterprises (CPSEs), are playing a key role in numerous industries. Although the country began its economic liberalization in the early 1990s, large-scale privatization did not gain momentum due to strong political and societal opposition, allowing CPSEs to maintain their pivotal position within the Indian economy. Starting from the mid-2010s, the number and total size of CPSEs increased as the Narendra Modi government actively mobilized these enterprises to pursue economic development. As of 2022, there were 389 CPSEs with total revenues exceeding 30 trillion rupees (approximately 350 billion dollars).

    This report focuses on the agriculture-related sector, electric power sector, transport infrastructure sector, energy, minerals and metals sector, and defense sector as promising areas for Korea-India cooperation. It examines the role and key projects of India’s major CPSEs within these industries. Major CPSEs were selected based on indicators such as assets, revenues, and employment, as well as their roles in government development strategies. The report finds that major CPSEs play a crucial role in all five selected sectors. CPSEs in the agriculture-related sector are prominent players in fertilizer production, food trading, and food storage. In the electric power sector, CPSEs are leaders in thermal and nuclear power generation. CPSEs are also in charge of significant public transport infrastructure projects in the road, rail, port, and airport segments. In the energy, minerals and metals sector, CPSEs hold substantial shares in upstream and downstream businesses. Defense CPSEs lead the domestic production of military vehicles, ships, and aircraft.

    While the Indian government actively employs CPSEs for development, it also recognizes the importance of the private sector. To attract private investment, the government has been improving the business environment by easing regulations and strengthening infrastructure. Moreover, it has been encouraging cooperation between CPSEs and international companies and organizations.

    This report analyzes a set of case studies involving CPSEs and international companies or organizations. These cases can be divided into two areas: industrial cooperation and development cooperation. In the area of industrial cooperation, the goals of CPSEs include gaining access to advanced technologies and capital while strengthening supply chains. In comparison, external partners seek to leverage CPSEs’ local knowledge, networks, and market access. In the area of development cooperation, major advanced countries’ development agencies and global development financial institutions have been expanding funding to India with CPSEs charged with the execution of numerous development projects.

    India is a pivotal partner in the Indo-Pacific era. As Korea seeks to strengthen its partnership with India, the most populous country in the world and soon to be the third-largest economy, the Korean government and businesses can consider cooperating with India’s CPSEs. Based on in-depth analyses of CPSEs, this report suggests five strategies referred to as the 5Ms (Monitoring, Meeting, Marketing, Matching, and Metamorphosis) to enhance relations with these enterprises.

    First, Korea’s government institutions and industry associations need to strengthen their monitoring of India’s CPSEs. To prepare for potential disruptions in key natural resource supply chains, a monitoring team can be tasked to collect information on CPSEs with increasing influence in the global commodities market. Additionally, the team can gather critical information on India’s major development strategies and projects by monitoring CPSEs. As state enterprises play an important role in several large emerging economies, these monitoring activities should be extended to these countries.

    Second, while India’s CPSEs actively cooperate with international companies and organizations, their interaction with Korea remains limited. To address this, Korea could organize “State-Enterprises Meetings” with Indian counterparts as an initial step toward collaboration. In these meetings, high-ranking officials from both countries’ state enterprises can discuss India’s development challenges and industrial trends and explore potential areas of cooperation. Korean companies could also identify solutions for some of the obstacles they face in India.

    Third, the Korean government could support the marketing activities of Korean businesses aimed at CPSEs, which serve as important contractors in large projects in India. The designated organization would collect and provide information on CPSEs’ contractual relationships, purchasing intentions, and tender regulations as well as arrange seminars and exhibitions aimed at promoting Korean products to CPSEs.

    Next, the Korean government could establish a unit responsible for identifying and designing potential cooperation projects by matching the needs of both India and Korea. This team, composed of industry and development experts, would plan cooperation projects aligned with the development strategies of both countries. Given that government-initiated projects involving India’s CPSEs tend to proceed relatively quickly, the team would benefit from close consultation with these enterprises in its search for potential areas of cooperation.

    Finally, the report emphasizes the need for a metamorphosis in the Korean government and businesses’ approach to India. Korean businesses should seriously consider expanding local manufacturing capacities, while the Korean government needs to diversify development cooperation tools. With the Indian government advancing its industrialization strategy, Korean businesses targeting India’s vast market are advised to establish local manufacturing facilities. As CPSEs strive to increase indigenization in line with government policy stance, local production will be particularly important. Turning to the role of the Korean government, it could learn from major development finance institutions and policy finance institutions that utilize diverse tools to cooperate with India’s CPSEs. It could also expand its portfolio of policy tools by incorporating guarantees, debt and equity financing, and triangular cooperation mechanisms in addition to grants and concessional loans.

  • 중남미 국가의 그린 에너지 산업 기반과 협력 방향 연구
    Study on Latin American Countries’ Green Energy Industries and Korea’s Cooperation Strategies

    The Latin American region, while still abundant in fossil fuels, is also regarded as having significant potential in the renewable energy sector. The global transition to renewable energy presents an opportunity for industrial dev..

    Changkeun Lee et al. Date 2024.12.31

    ODA, energy industry Latin America
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    Summary
    The Latin American region, while still abundant in fossil fuels, is also regarded as having significant potential in the renewable energy sector. The global transition to renewable energy presents an opportunity for industrial development in Latin American countries, which hold comparative advantages in this field. Many Latin American countries possess strong cost competitiveness in solar and wind energy. These global needs, coupled with the region's strengths, underline the necessity of fostering green energy. However, it is evaluated that the conditions required to realize these goals are not fully in place, necessitating responses through international cooperation. This study aims to analyze the current status and institutional foundations of the green energy industry in Latin American countries and, based on this analysis, propose directions for the advancement and cooperation of Korean companies.

    This report seeks to understand the structure of the green energy industry in Latin America, focusing on solar, wind, and hydrogen energy, and to explore pathways for Korea's cooperation with the region. It especially highlights Chile, with its significant advantages across all renewable energy sectors and high political stability; Brazil, with the largest market in Latin America and strengths across almost all energy sources; Mexico, which ranks next in market size and holds great potential in solar energy; and Colombia, where energy accessibility is a major issue and official development assistance (ODA) could serve as a key cooperation channel.

    Chapter 2 provides a macro-level discussion on the energy transition in Latin American countries. By examining shared and persistent characteristics, it identifies factors to consider for the development of the green energy sector and collaboration with Korea. It points out that underlying the region’s longstanding issues of low growth and inequality are problems in the corporate growth ecosystem, particularly institutional issues such as favoritism toward state-owned enterprises. Many Latin American countries find it difficult to meet energy transition demands on their own, requiring external investment. However, outdated institutional factors in Latin America are likely to continue to act as barriers to attracting investments for energy transition and green energy development.

    This chapter also delves into the green energy potential of Latin America. According to IRENA (2023), countries like Brazil, Chile, and Mexico have significant cost advantages in the solar and wind sectors. Northern Chile, Peru, and Mexico hold immense potential in solar energy, while the Patagonia region (southern Chile and Argentina), parts of Colombia, and eastern Brazil excel in wind energy. Additionally, Brazil and Argentina are well-suited for bioenergy production using agricultural resources. These diverse renewable energy resources contribute to the region being one of the largest renewable energy producers globally.

    The study highlights the role of hydrogen as an energy source for achieving carbon neutrality, with particular attention to green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy), which is attracting the interest of many companies and nations. Latin America, with its abundant solar and wind resources, has the potential to supply electricity for hydrogen production at the lowest global cost and aspires to become a leading exporter of green hydrogen. Emerging international hydrogen industry platforms, including the Global Hydrogen Council, could facilitate Korea’s collaboration with Latin America in this field.

    Lastly, the issue of a just and equitable transition is emphasized not merely as a social concern but as a practical challenge that significantly impacts the identification and execution of projects. International organizations like the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) are focusing on technical cooperation to support a fair transition. While private companies may concentrate on business aspects, governments and public sectors need to take responsibility for related areas, such as community development, and actively consider relevant models.

    Chapter 3 explores Korean companies’ perceptions of the renewable energy industry and Latin America’s potential, based on a survey of 100 professionals from diverse energy companies and institutions in Korea. While respondents generally recognize Latin America’s cost advantages, they do not view it as a critical strategic region. This is attributed to not only a lack of information but also challenges such as political instability, licensing issues, and land ownership disputes in the region, underscoring the need for policy responses.

    The chapter also examines the technical advantages of Korean companies to identify comparative strengths. In solar energy, midstream and downstream capabilities stand out, while in wind energy, partnerships with European firms are suggested as a key strategy. In the hydrogen sector, Korean firms are recognized for their strengths in hydrogen-powered vehicles, tankers, and ammonia co-firing technologies.

    Chapter 4 provides an in-depth analysis of Chile, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia and proposes strategies for cooperation. Chile is identified as the most favorable country for entry due to its excellence in both solar and wind energy, clear hydrogen-focused policy direction, and proactive stance on foreign investment and collaboration. The report suggests positioning Chile as a hub country, offering an empirical model for other Latin American nations. It emphasizes establishing stable domestic and international demand plans, leveraging Chile’s interest in securing customers, and building long-term relationships through human exchanges and joint research.

    For Brazil, while it is the largest economy in South America, significant challenges such as foreign exchange risks and a lack of information and relationships are noted. The report proposes a detour strategy through partnerships with European companies already established in Brazil and suggests targeting unique growth areas like biofuels and internal combustion engine components.

    In Mexico, despite its technical potential, the report anticipates that regulatory practices favoring state-owned enterprises will remain entrenched. It recommends focusing on small-scale distributed energy markets and energy demand along the U.S. border. For Colombia, the report highlights the country’s market-friendly policies and status as a priority ODA partner. It advocates for continued ODA projects targeting regions excluded from the power grid and active involvement in Colombia’s hydrogen energy plans.

    Chapter 5 synthesizes the findings to propose strategic cooperation directions for the four major countries and draws lessons from the collaboration approaches of other donor nations. A key feature of advanced donor nations’ energy policies is the integration of energy cooperation with other development projects. Many countries are implementing policy-oriented ODA projects to drive the entry of their domestic firms. Energy cooperation requires not only private investment but also government collaboration, necessitating comprehensive partnerships, including policy coordination. Korea’s experience with initiatives like the Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) and the Energy Industry Promotion Program (EIPP) offers advantages. However, Korea’s relatively short history of collaboration with Latin America suggests the need to focus on partnerships with willing countries in the region or to actively pursue collaborations with European nations or international organizations that have longstanding relationships with Latin America.

    Lastly, the report highlights policy recommendations, including the identification of cooperative projects through international organizations like CABEI and IDB, strengthening intergovernmental cooperation through knowledge sharing and joint research, and improving internal feasibility studies for business development in Latin America.
  • 글로벌 반도체 산업 경쟁력과 공급망 구조 분석
    Analysis of Global Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness and Supply Chain Structure

    The semiconductor industry is crucial not only for economic growth but also for leading future industries through innovation and technological development. Dominance in this sector is reflected through technological leadership, wi..

    Hyung-Gon Jeong et al. Date 2024.12.27

    trade policy, industrial policy
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    Summary
    The semiconductor industry is crucial not only for economic growth but also for leading future industries through innovation and technological development. Dominance in this sector is reflected through technological leadership, with leading nations at the forefront of scientific research and technological innovation, substantially contributing to global influence and economic competitiveness. Additionally, the semiconductor industry is vital for national security. Semiconductors are essential components in advanced weapons systems and are fundamental to nearly all modern military equipment and systems, including missiles, drones, radars, and communication devices. Consequently, controlling semiconductor supply chains and strategic technologies is critical for national security. Given the semiconductor industry’s importance, the battle for technological supremacy between the U.S. and China is central to their hegemonic rivalry. The United States has recognized that rapid advancements in China’s semiconductor technology could pose a significant risk to national security and has imposed various export controls, investment sanctions, and financial sanctions targeting China’s semiconductor industry. These U.S. measures impact not only China’s semiconductor industry but also significantly affect global semiconductor firms in Japan, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and South Korea, leading to substantial changes in the global semiconductor supply chain. However, China already plays a significant role as a global hub in semiconductor manufacturing and supply, and there is keen interest in the outcomes of the U.S. sanctions. This study addresses three critical questions to understand the core of this issue and provides an in-depth analysis: 1. Can China overcome U.S. sanctions and continue to develop its semiconductor industry? 2. What impact will U.S. sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry have on the global semiconductor industry and the current global semiconductor supply chain? 3. How will the U.S.-China semiconductor hegemony competition affect Korean semiconductor industry and economy, and howshould we prepare policy-wise? The first question explores whether China’s semiconductor industry can overcome U.S. sanctions and enhance its position in the global semiconductor supply chain. This study answers by analyzing the competitiveness of the global semiconductor industry, including China, from 2000 to 2022, and comparing changes in competitiveness over the past two decades. The analysis uses UN Comtrade data to derive various competitiveness indices and also examines semiconductor technology competitiveness by analyzing patent registrations in the semiconductor field over the past 20 years for major countries and the top 10 global semiconductor companies. The analysis of memory semiconductors showed that South Korea had the highest RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) and TSI (Trade Specialization Index) values, indicating strong competitiveness. In contrast, China showed a comparative advantage in production and export for most of the analysis period, asindicated by positive RSCA values, but its TSI values were negative throughout, indicating difficulties in achieving trade surpluses and overall lower competitiveness in the memory semiconductor industry. In the system semiconductor competitiveness analysis, Taiwan showed the highest competitiveness, followed by South Korea, which showed positive RSCA and TSI values. China, on the other hand, showed low competitiveness in the system semiconductor sector, with RSCA and TSI values between -0.5 and 0. In the semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry, Japan and the U.S. displayed high RSCA and TSI values, indicating strong competitiveness, while China showed very low competitiveness, with both indices close to -0.5 during the analysis period. The technological competitiveness analysis based on patent registration data for memory semiconductors, system semiconductors, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment calculated indices such as RTA (Revealed Technological Advantage), TS (Technology Strength), CPP (Cites per Patent), and PII (Patent Impact Index). The results for China were similar to the trade data-based competitivenessanalysis, indicating a challenging situation for China to overcome U.S. sanctions in the short term. U.S. sanctions are expected to strictly limit China’s advanced chip production capabilities for the foreseeable future. Especially, the analysis based on semiconductor patent technology showed that global semiconductor manufacturers heavily rely on core technologies from the U.S., making it difficult for these companies to circumvent U.S. sanctions. However, the biggest problem the U.S. faces is securing active cooperation from global semiconductor companies and allies. There are significant conflicts between the U.S. and European countries over specific policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and related subsidies. Global semiconductor companies are also likely to face substantial losses due to the sanctions, and there is considerable resistance to the U.S. administration’s policies, especially from EU countries, regarding how actively they will cooperate with U.S. policies against China. Additionally, active support from the Chinese government could greatly aid in enhancing the competitiveness of its semiconductor industry. Ironically, U.S. sanctions might actually accelerate innovation and self-reliance in China’s semiconductor sector, posing a short-term obstacle but unlikely to hinder the industry’s long-term development. To answer the second question, this study analyzed the roles and positions of the countries in the global semiconductor supply chain through network analysis using trade data and firm-level supply-demand relations, focusing on global rankings and market shares in various semiconductor sectors. The analysis showed that China is already playing a significant role as a global hub in the semiconductor and semiconductor manufacturing equipment sectors, making it very difficult to quickly exclude or significantly reduce China’s role in the global semiconductor supply chain. In particular, the analysis of inter-firm cooperation and technology transfer relationships using Factset data showed that U.S. companies are major suppliers across the semiconductor industry, and applying a 0% de minimis rule would have a significant impact on the global semiconductor supply chain, making it impossible for most companies to evade these sanctions. Despite these sanctions, it has been revealed that Chinese tech companies are importing and using advanced chips banned for export by the U.S. administration, and U.S. companies like NVIDIA are also circumventing sanctions by exporting modified semiconductor stargeted at the Chinese market. These incidents are occurring frequently, and the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions against China’s semiconductor industry depends on how much support the U.S. can secure from its allies. The U.S. is expected to transition to a multilateral export control system like the ‘Wassenaar Arrangement’ to fill the gaps in these sanctions. Regarding the restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain, it is expected to bifurcate due to U.S. sanctions. Advanced semiconductor production is likely to shift to a supply chain system centered around the U.S. and its allies, while the supply chain system for general-purpose semiconductors is expected to strengthen around China. In particular, no country can produce general-purpose semiconductors as cheaply and competitively as China, which is expected to increase its global market share in this sector. Additionally, developing countries like India, Vietnam, and Thailand import the most semiconductor manufacturing equipment from China, and the establishment of a supply chain system for low-cost general-purpose semiconductor production between China and these countries is also an issue worth watching. In addressing the third question, the study examined the impact of U.S. semiconductor sanctions on the Korean semiconductor industry through three scenarios: the control of exports for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the control of exports for AI semiconductors, and the imposition of increased tariffs on China. The first scenario involves export control of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, where South Korea experienced a significant decline in semiconductor equipment exports compared to other countries following the U.S. semiconductor equipment sanctions in October 2022. China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment sharply decreased from October 2022, when U.S. sanctions began, to February 2023, but increased significantly from August 2023, eight months after the sanctions started. The U.S. initially saw a decrease in exports to China, but these later increased, and the Netherlands was not affected by the sanctions, with exports to China increasing. Even after controlling for variables such as the recent semiconductor business climate, South Korea’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment have significantly decreased, and this trend does not appear to be following any particular trend. Also, South Korean manufacturing equipment is almost not included in the U.S. sanction items, while the U.S., the Netherlands, and Japan have many items essential in the semiconductor manufacturing process, which Chinese companies would likely prioritize purchasing with their current capital. The second scenario involves AI semiconductor export control, which assumes the worst-case scenario affecting DRAM production. In this scenario, the supply of DRAM for AI semiconductors is assumed to be delivered by TSMC after final assembly through Taiwan’s export of HBM. This scenario also showed a significant negative impact on the Korean economy. The third scenario involves an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductors under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, which imposes high tariffs. In this scenario, exports of semiconductors produced in China to the U.S. decreased, while South Korea’s exports to the U.S. increased long-term due to trade diversion effects. In conclusion, only the increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese semiconductors is expected to have a positive impact on us due to trade diversion effects, while the export reduction of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and AI semiconductors such as HBM chips due to U.S. sanctions is expected to negatively affect us. The U.S.-China semiconductor hegemony competition is already significantly limiting the business activities of our companies, and the negative impacts are likely to grow in the future. The U.S. is already responding to the potential impacts of this hegemony competition. The U.S. is relying on advanced semiconductor manufacturing by companies like Samsung and TSMC while fostering its domestic semiconductor companies like Intel and enhancing the backend chip post-processing capability through government subsidies to increase the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain. In contrast, China, as previously discussed, is increasing its global market share centered on current legacy chips. In particular, the backend chip post-processing sector, which is technically less demanding and has a lower barrier to entry, could become an area where China can intentionally control the global supply chain based on its manufacturing capability and high market share. Therefore, such hegemonic disputes using this leverage are likely to continue between the U.S. and China, and the Korean government and companies need to prepare for this. Korean companies have limitations in upgrading semiconductor manufacturing processes invested in China due to current U.S. sanctions on China. Therefore, in the medium to long term, advanced semiconductors are likely to be produced only in domestic or allied countries including the U.S. Ultimately, although production in China has been an optimal strategy for companies in terms of cost and market aspects, the U.S.-China hegemony competition makes it inevitable to relocate production bases for advanced semiconductor production. However, our current domestic semiconductor ecosystem is not more competitive than the ecosystem established in China. This study recommends a series of policy measures aimed at bolstering the domestic semiconductor industry. These include strengthening the semiconductor manufacturing base and ecosystem, enhancing the added value of the industry, ensuring supply chain stability, and managing semiconductor operations in China effectively. It also suggests fortifying supply chain cooperation within the Korea-U.S.-Japan economic security alliance, controlling technology leaks, preventing talent outflow, and fostering a competitive innovation ecosystem. Additionally, the study advises managing supply chain risks, developing both short- and long-term production strategies, and promoting open trade policies and international cooperation.
  • Economic Factors Affecting Birth Rates in APEC Economies
    Economic Factors Affecting Birth Rates in APEC Economies

    In the last ten years, fertility rates for advanced and developing economies have been falling faster than expected. Korea has been leading the decline, but almost all advanced and developing economies have experienced accelerated..

    Junsok Yang Date 2024.12.13

    APEC, economic growth
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    I. Introduction: Motivation

    II. Possible Reasons for Falling Birth Rates

    III. Data and Methodology

    IV. Per Capita GDP and Fertility

    V. Labor Market Considerations

    VI. Did APEC Contribute to Falling Fertility?

    VII. Policy Implications and Conclusion

    References

    Appendix
    Summary
    In the last ten years, fertility rates for advanced and developing economies have been falling faster than expected. Korea has been leading the decline, but almost all advanced and developing economies have experienced accelerated decline in birth rates. Some researchers now expect the world to start experiencing falling global population as quickly as in 2030s.

    Even more surprising is that fertility rates for APEC economies have been falling even faster. APEC economies with the highest fertility rates are only slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1; with most economies, even developing members, in the 1% range. This paper is intended to be an exploratory dip into looking at correlations between birth rates and various economic data. We try to examine some of the popular reasons behind the falling birth rates, to see whether they have validity based on data, and see whether APEC economies are special in the sense that the birth rates are falling faster for APEC economies. The paper looks at economic data using panel data regressions to see why birth rates are falling overall, and why they are falling faster for APEC economies. We will concentrate more on trying to find correlations between variables in the data than coming up with theoretical reasons, which will require a much richer data set.

    In Section II, the paper lists some of the popular reasons often cited for declining birth rates; Section III is a short general discussion on the data used. Sections IV and V examines whether the data backs some of these popular reasons for the decline. Section IV looks at the relationship between some basic economic growth variables and fertility rates, and serves as a base for further analysis. Section V looks at the relationship between employment data and fertility rates, Given the faster fertility decline for APEC economies, Section VI looks at whether the formation of APEC had a role in the faster decline of fertility rates. Appendix A looks at the relationship between gender education disparities and fertility rates, and Appendix B is a short exploration on whether there is a case to be made that gender disparities in housework is a factor in lower fertility rates.

    In this paper, we used panel data of more than 180 economies to examine some factors affecting fertility rates. The factors examined included economic growth factors such as per capita GDP and GDP growth rates; gender based labor and employment factors such as male and female labor participation rate, and the ratio of male and female workers working in various industries. We also considered how some gender based disparities in education, and time spent doing housework for men and women affected fertility rates, though the results are less definite for these cases due to irregular nature of data available. We ran regressions on the global data set, and then for some regressions, only on data for APEC member economies.

    Where we used global panel data, we re-confirmed some results that researchers had found before – namely, the higher the per-capita GDP, the lower the fertility rate; the higher the growth rate, the lower the fertility rate. So more income is not always the answer for fostering fertility rates. However, we did find that current growth variables predicted fertility rates better than past growth rate variables, showing perhaps that the trend of falling fertility rates is a more powerful force than a good economic environment fostering more births. These regressions also showed that APEC economies are qualitatively similar to the global group, but with a faster decline. Given similar situations, APEC economies experience a lower fertility rate than global group as a whole.

    Using the economic growth variables as controls, we added labor market data to the regressions, and we found that, for the global group, increases in male and female labor participation increased fertility rates. However, perhaps somewhat against expectations, the effect of male labor participation rate had greater effect than female labor participation. Again, given similar situations APEC economies had lower fertility rates. When we used only APEC economy data, female labor force participation had no significant effect on fertility rates. Only the male labor force participation mattered, and higher the male participation rate, higher the fertility rate.

    Then we used the shares of male and female labor force on agriculture, industry (manufacturing) and service industries. For the global data set regressions, as expected, a rise of the share working in agriculture would raise the fertility rate, and a rise of the share working in industry would lower fertility rate, as expected. Service industry participation came in between – the effect on fertility rate higher than industry and likely a positive effect, but lower than the effect from agricultural industry participation. The results were same for males and females.

    However, when we used only APEC economy data, the qualitative results were significantly different. Male labor force industry share behaved the same as the global group, but for females, share of workers in services had a higher positive effect on fertility rate than agriculture. Industry, as expected had the lowest and negative effect. The effect of female workers participation in different industries on fertility rates seems to be significantly different for APEC economies compared to global group as a whole. Which may be the reason why APEC economy fertility rates fell faster than the global group, but it may also imply that if APEC economies give more flexibility to female workers in service industries, fertility rates may pick up. Further and deeper studies should be taken to see whether the pattern of female employment in APEC economies differ significantly compared to other economies, especially the possible differences between developing APEC economies and other developing economies.

    Analysis looking at gender disparities in education for primary and secondary education showed that it is the disparities in secondary education which may be the key to differences in fertility rates, but the results should be taken carefully, since the data for gender disparity in education was available irregularly, so an unbalanced panel data was used, and gender disparities for primary and secondary education seems to be highly correlated. Also, the time disparity between men and women doing housework was also examined, but there were no results that led us to believe that the disparity in doing housework affected fertility rates, contrary to many popular media reports in Korea and elsewhere. But again, data was only available irregularly, so an unbalanced panel data was used, so results may not be as credible as regressions using labor force variables. For these regressions, a separate APEC economy regressions were not attempted due to paucity of data.

    These regression results show that declining fertility rate is a strong trend based on rising wealth and growth rates; but the trend may be partially reversed if appropriate labor market adjustments can occur. For APEC economies, encouraging women to go into the services sector which perhaps offer an urban living coupled with flexible labor time schedule may partially offset the declining fertility rates.

    Drawing some policy implications from the analyses, while Korea and other APEC economies may be able to keep fertility rates from falling “too low,” it will not be able to raise the rates to the replacement rate of 2.1. Thus, when designing welfare policies, the policymakers must keep the declining population and demographic implications in mind. Over-promising benefits for post-retirement public pension will become a critical problem, and governments should encourage private measures to the public to get them ready for post-retirement.

    Second, for would-be mothers, encouraging employment in the service sector may alleviate some of the rapid decline in the fertility rates. Encouraging employment in the services sector, making services job for women available in small and large cities may do better in raising fertility for APEC economies. Women who work for the public sector tend to have more children, in part due to more flexible schedules and consideration for pregnant mothers.

    Also, for fertility rates, male employment seems to be as important or perhaps more important than female employment. So, while more flexible time scheduling may be warranted for the would-be mother, any income implications should be approached from the point of view of the entire household.

    While the Korean media often cites complaints that men do not do enough housework, as a contributor to low fertility, using global data, this study did not find any particular evidence for that explanation. While the complaint may be valid for Korea, there seems to be little reason to believe that it is a major reason globally, but because of data deficiency, the results may not be clear cut.

    Of course, more research is needed. During the modernization and development process, the economic position of husband and wife in the family seems to change from being complementary to more of substitutes – where in the olden days, women specialized in housework aspect of the household and men specialized in wage earning or outside work, now men and women have similar work characteristics, and the global group regressions in this study did not consider such changes in characteristics about husband and wives; but the results that we have derived may be showing the effects of such changes.
  • The Recent Rise of the Far Right and Voters’ Anti-Refugee Attitudes in Eur..
    The Recent Rise of the Far Right and Voters’ Anti-Refugee Attitudes in Europe

    This paper explores the connection between individuals’ barrier preference toward immigration and refugee policy and how they are linked to voting behavior. We use three different datasets to tackle these two questions. We utiliz..

    Yoonjung Kim et al. Date 2024.11.20

    trade policy, political economy
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    1. Introduction

    2. Background

    3. Data
    3-1. European Social Survey
    3-2. Dutch Parliamentary Election Panel Study
    3-3. French Electoral Study

    4. Econometric Specifications
    4-1. European Social Survey
    4-2. DPES and French Electoral Study

    5. Estimation Results
    5-1. Estimation Results Using ESS Data
    5-2. Estimation Results Using DPES
    5-3. Estimation Results Using French Electoral Study
    5-4. Variable Selection Using LASSO

    6. Conclusion

    References
    Summary
    This paper explores the connection between individuals’ barrier preference toward immigration and refugee policy and how they are linked to voting behavior. We use three different datasets to tackle these two questions. We utilize multi-country survey data with abundant information regarding voters’ subjective attitudes toward immigrants to study the determinants of far-right voting in Europe. Notably, even after controlling for education, income level, or current employment status, which represents the human capital endow-ment of natives, industry-level comparative advantage and disadvantage, and political scale from left to right, we still find that a preference for immigration barriers has strong explanatory power for far-right voting behavior. We find that educational attainment and income level are important in explaining vot-ers’ anti-immigration attitudes, as the Heckscher-Ohlin model predicts. On average, voters with higher education and higher income are relatively more open to immigration and aware of their role in the economy.

    In addition to the cross-country election studies that allow us to study the anti-immigration attitude, we also use election surveys conducted in the Neth-erlands and France to add more details on the role of individual immigration and refugee policy preference in the voting behavior. The election survey on the parliamentary election of the Netherlands provides a special identification approach that is not available in cross-country election surveys. The panel structure of the Dutch survey allows us to observe the voting history of re-spondents in 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2021 parliamentary elections. Using this information, this paper clarifies the characteristics of voters who newly join supporting right-wing populism. In other words, we study determinants of ‘switching’ voting behavior from non-populist parties to right-wing populist parties focusing on the refugee barrier preference. We explore whether atti-tudes towards refugees affect this switching behavior in the politics of the Netherlands. The election survey on French voters covers the most recent presidential election in France. We elaborate on how immigration policy pref-erences of French voters are related with the popularity of right-wing popu-list presidential candidates in France.

    Considering that non-economic factors contribute to explaining the far-right voting behavior, utilizing other non-economic variables such as individ-uals’ sentiments towards various entities (including the government, legal sys-tem, and the European Parliament), and subjective evaluation of their own health and happiness can also add explanatory power, as numerous previous findings imply. For systematic consideration of these abundant variables in the ESS data, we use LASSO for variable selection. For this exercise, we con-sider two approaches in selecting the optimal penalty term, namely cross-validation (CV) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). It is worth high-lighting that almost all of the immigration barrier preference variables are se-lected when using both CV and BIC for variable selection criteria.
  • 전후 우크라이나 재건 사업의 국제 논의와 한국기업 참여 가능성 연구
    Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine: International Discussions and Potential for Participation by Korean Companies

    This report identifies the opportunities and challenges present in post-war reconstruction programs of Ukraine, and provides implications for the participation of Korean companies. The study comprehensively analyzes past post-war ..

    Youngook Jang et al. Date 2024.11.13

    economic reform, economic development
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    Summary
    This report identifies the opportunities and challenges present in post-war reconstruction programs of Ukraine, and provides implications for the participation of Korean companies. The study comprehensively analyzes past post-war reconstruction cases and recent international community discussion trends through review of literature on the subject, statistical analysis, expert interviews, and attendance at international conferences. While there is great interest in post-war recovery in Ukraine throughout the international community and Korea, it is difficult for governments and businesses to expand their participation due to the continuing uncertainty surrounding war conditions, and the lack of specific information on funding methods or investment profitability. As large-scale investments will certainly be made for Ukraine’s recovery after the end of the war, it is necessary to carefully design the government’s participation in international community discussions and the direction of corporate investment, considering the current war situation and overall conditions.

    Chapters 2–4 of this report conducted research on three major topics to provide reference materials for the participation of the Korean government and businesses in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction programs.

    In Chapter 2 we conduct an analysis of major past post-war recovery cases to present the main principles and precautions for participating in reconstruction projects. More than simple restoration of destroyed infrastructure, post-war reconstruction should be seen as an opportunity for a comprehensive overhaul of economic and social systems. This was evidently observed in cases such as the Marshall Plan after World War II, U.S. aid after the Korean War, and the reconstruction of the West Balkans in the 1990s. The Marshall Plan contributed to European economic recovery and the establishment of a market economy system, while in Korea’s case, U.S. aid laid the foundation for a liberal system. The Balkans are still undergoing reconstruction with EU-centered support, but challenges remain. Lessons learned from these cases are as follows: First, economic aid is effective when linked to improvements in the recipient country’s political and economic structure. Second, support tailored to the recipient country’s situation is necessary. Third, support that benefits both donor and recipient countries is important. Fourth, international cooperation enables the mobilization of funds to meet reconstruction needs and build international order. Korea’s participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction should also consider these points and participate not only in facility restoration but also in institutional improvement and international peacekeeping efforts.

    Chapter 3 examined the current status of international community discussions on Ukraine’s reconstruction, the costs and direction of Ukraine’s reconstruction projects, governance, and key contents of core projects. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, discussions on Ukraine’s reconstruction projects have been active in the West. Major Western countries and international organizations intend to modernize social infrastructure and integrate Ukraine into the EU economy. This will be enabled through attracting large-scale investments, EU integration, and application of digital and net-zero technologies, which are the main topics discussed in a series of international conferences on Ukraine’s recovery. As of the end of December 2023, the total amount of damages sustained by Ukraine and its needs are estimated at $486 billion, about 2.8 times Ukraine’s nominal GDP in 2023. The reconstruction costs are expected to increase as infrastructure continues to be destructed due to the war. Energy, transportation, housing construction, and health are the key areas that should be most urgently recovered. We summarized major projects and implementation plans for each area at the end of this chapter.

    In Chapter 4, we examine the magnitude of support toward Ukraine’s reconstruction by international organizations and major countries, and discussed how to mobilize public and private funding considering sustainability and risk management. As Ukraine’s fiscal instability deepens due to uncertainties from the prolonged war, it heavily depends on support from international financial institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, EBRD, and major countries including the EU, G7, and Poland. To this end, the Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform (MDCP) was launched in January 2023 to coordinate short- and mid- to long-term Ukraine support directions and mechanisms among various donors. This reflects the international community’s common understanding that international support alone is clearly limited for Ukraine’s stable recovery and reconstruction, and that attracting private capital is essential. The international community now discusses ways to utilize frozen Russian sovereign assets as reconstruction funds within legally possible limits, and an agreement has been reached at the G7 level on how to use the annual interest income from frozen Russian assets. In addition, discussions on practical risk management measures such as strengthening public-private partnerships (PPP), compensation for losses due to political and commercial risks, and customized policy support are deepening to activate private funding.

    Based on these research results, Chapter 5 presents the current status of Korean companies’ participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction projects and future support measures. Korea is paving the way for its companies to participate based on the EDCF basic agreement with the Ukrainian government and six leading projects. The One Team Korea Ukraine Reconstruction Cooperation Delegation includes not only government ministries such as the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, but also public enterprises such as Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH), Korea Water Resources Corporation, and Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation (KIND), as well as some private companies exploring the possibilities of reconstruction projects. To facilitate their smooth participation in reconstruction projects, this report proposes six support measures: first, establishing a pan-ministerial support organization under the Prime Minister for formulating reconstruction participation strategies and overseeing related ministries; second, supporting the development of integrated public-private partnership (PPP) projects throughout the project lifecycle; third, providing investment information in six key areas: energy, transportation, housing, infrastructure, industry, and complex fields; fourth, mitigating investment risks through the development of insurance products, participation in consortiums with major donor country companies, and utilization of MDCP; fifth, joint entry into reconstruction projects using Poland as a base; and sixth, strengthening bilateral cooperation with Ukraine, including KSP projects, and joint participation in multilateral cooperation.

    The war will end someday, and regardless of how it ends, massive resources will certainly be poured into post-war recovery. Korea needs to set the right direction and prepare now so that it can contribute to this historic post-war reconstruction. The economic benefits gained by participating companies will be given as a bonus.
    정책연구브리핑
  • 핵심광물협정의 주요 내용과 정책 시사점
    Critical Minerals Agreement: Implications for Korea’s Trade Policy

    Critical minerals are essential for advanced industries like semiconductors, electric vehicles, and batteries, as well as for clean energy infrastructure. Major countries are actively pursuing trade agreements to ensure stable sup..

    Soo Hyun Oh Date 2024.11.08

    economic security, trade policy
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    Summary
    Critical minerals are essential for advanced industries like semiconductors, electric vehicles, and batteries, as well as for clean energy infrastructure. Major countries are actively pursuing trade agreements to ensure stable supplies of these minerals. This study analyzes key countries’ trade agreements related to critical minerals and derives insights for Korea’s policies and trade negotiations. The study narrows its focus to binding trade agreements between countries.

    Traditionally, mineral and energy regulations in trade agreements were declarative, but recent agreements by the U.S., EU, and Japan have introduced specific obligations and linked these to environmental and labor standards. The EU includes energy and raw materials (ERM) chapters in its trade agreements, while the U.S. tends to establish stand-alone agreements on critical minerals. The EU’s proactive engagement with resource-rich countries aims to reduce price volatility and promote fair trade, while U.S. agreements, such as with Japan, are primarily driven by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) electric vehicle subsidies and focus on establishing supply chains with allied nations. The U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement, for example, emphasizes the management of environmental and social risks within supply chains through well-defined environmental and labor provisions.

    Based on these international trends, this study proposes the inclusion of a Raw Materials Chapter in Korea’s future Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), bench-marking the critical minerals agreements of the EU and the U.S. Specifically, this proposal aligns with the “Critical Minerals Security Strategy” announced by the Korean government in 2023, which advocates for expanded bilateral and multilateral cooperation and enhanced collaboration on critical mineral supply chains in FTA negotiations. When pursuing critical minerals agreements, Korea must carefully consider various elements such as the selection of partner countries, contents and types of agreement to pursue, and the order in which to conduct negotiations, as these factors are intricately interconnected and can influence the outcomes of other aspects.

    In negotiating critical minerals agreements, several key provisions should be considered, including the definition of minerals, trade facilitation, exploration and production permits, environmental protection, labor rights, and cooperation clauses. For example, trade facilitation provisions might include prohibitions on export quotas, export tariffs, and price caps to mitigate financial risks and price volatility for companies.

    The environmental and labor provisions evident in the EU-Chile FTA and the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement are essential to aligning with the global trend of enhancing supply chain ESG standards and emphasizing responsible sourcing. It is necessary that Korea incorporates these provisions into its agreements, thereby ensuring mineral procurement is conducted in accordance with international standards. However, the adherence to international environmental and labor standards and the associated monitoring may impose additional costs on companies. Thus, a balanced approach is necessary, in hand with dialogue and coordination between the government and businesses to achieve consensus before negotiations.
  • The Disparate Impact of Digitalization on Tax Revenues: An Illustration from Dev..
    The Disparate Impact of Digitalization on Tax Revenues: An Illustration from Developing APEC Economies

    While prior research has highlighted digitalization as a potential avenue for enhancing domestic revenue mobilization—a crucial component for the long-term economic and political development of economies—the relationship between d..

    Seungho Lee Date 2024.10.31

    APEC
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    Executive Summary
    I. Introduction
    II. Theory and Hypotheses
    III. Data and Methodology
    IV. Empirical Results
    V. Policy Implications
    References
    Summary
    While prior research has highlighted digitalization as a potential avenue for enhancing domestic revenue mobilization—a crucial component for the long-term economic and political development of economies—the relationship between digitalization and domestic revenue mobilization remains underexplored. This working paper contributes to the existing literature by examining how the interplay between digitalization and the government’s capacity to tax is influenced by governance quality, an aspect largely overlooked in previous studies. Empirical findings based on a time-series cross-sectional dataset including up to 159 economies from 2004 to 2021 show that a higher level of digitalization alone does not necessarily translate into a higher non-resource tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. However, when digitalization is coupled with sound governance—specifically in terms of voice and accountability or regulatory quality—it significantly boosts domestic revenue mobilization. The study also finds that the interaction effects between digitalization and these governance variables vary according to the levels of digitalization and development across economies. The findings and case studies presented in this paper underscore the importance of strengthening institutional frameworks alongside digitalization efforts to ensure enduring success in mobilizing domestic revenue, offering valuable insights especially for developing APEC economies where the potential for improvement is most pronounced.
  • 동남아 주요 5개국의 통상전략과 경제성장 경로 : 수출주도성장전략의 평가와 전망
    Trade Strategies and Economic Growth Paths of Five Southeast Asian Nations: Evaluation and Outlook of Export-Led Growth Strategies

    This research studies the role of international trade in the economic growth paths of five Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). We evaluate the export-led growth strategies of the ..

    Nam Seok Kim et al. Date 2024.10.11

    economic growth, trade policy
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    Summary
    This research studies the role of international trade in the economic growth paths of five Southeast Asian nations (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). We evaluate the export-led growth strategies of the five nations and derive policy implications for Korea.

    Chapter 2 elaborates on the economic growth paths of the five nations from the perspective of economic growth convergence. Introducing the comparative approach with growth convergence analysis allows the authors to delineate how the economic growth paths of these five Southeast Asian nations should be understood in terms of the speed and magnitude of the convergence. We find that the speed and magnitude of growth convergence in the five Southeast Asian nations are faster and more prominent compared to the world average. Country-specific estimations confirm that economic convergence is significantly explicit in Malaysia and Thailand, resonating with “middle-income trap” diagnoses on both nations.

    We extend discussions by comparing growth convergence in these five Southeast Asian nations to that in the three East Asian nations of China, Japan, and Korea. Growth convergence is significantly identified in four nations: Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. These four nations have already experienced rapid economic growth. Malaysia and Thailand followed convergent growth paths before joining the high-income group, and this is marked as a big difference compared to Japan and Korea, where growth convergence started after they had become high-income nations.

    In nations currently undergoing accelerated economic growth, such as China and Vietnam, economic growth convergence is not statistically significant. We also could not find evidence of growth convergence in Indonesia and the Philippines. As growth convergence cannot be directly linked to growth slowdown, we analyzed the dynamics of structural change in four nations (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) that have accessible sectoral data. We ascertained whether a sector with higher productivity attracts more labor share within a national economy. If this productive labor reallocation is shown to occur, we can say that a country is going through growth-enhancing structural change, which is a critical factor for long-run rapid growth. According to our estimations, neither of these four nations is going through growth-enhancing structural change.

    Chapter 3 clarifies how exports in the five nations are related to their economic growth. We obtain country-level export productivity measures following existing literature and estimate how export productivity can explain the economic growth of each nation. In Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, export productivity has contributed to economic growth. However, in Malaysia and the Philippines, export productivity has not contributed to economic growth. The five nations are actively implementing export-led growth strategies to overcome the “middle-income trap” and accelerate their entry into a high-income economy. Chapter 4 comprehensively reviews and evaluates the history of export-led growth strategies in the five nations.

    Chapter 5 extends the discussions in Chapter 4 by focusing on recent export-led growth strategies in the 2020s. Indonesia’s Making Indonesia 4.0 project and National RPJMN five-year plan, Malaysia’s New Industrial Master Plan 2030, National Trade Blueprint 2021-2025, the Philippines’ Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 and Philippine Export Development Plan 2023-2028, Thailand’s 13th National Economic and Social Development Plan (NESDP), Thailand 4.0 Strategy and MoC Action Plan, and Vietnam’s Strategy on Exports and Imports and expansion of its trade promotion agency (VIETRADE) are introducing export-led growth strategies under the goals and constraints that these five nations are facing. All strategies target the maximized utilization of their respective comparative advantages to promote export growth and job creation.

    Based on the recent export-led growth strategies of the five nations outlined in Chapter 5, we derive implications for Korean trade and investment in the areas of ① country-specific optimized cooperation, ② critical minerals/food supply chain cooperation, and ③ cooperation in future strategic industries. First, in the first area, country-specific optimized cooperation, some of the flagship projects in Chapter 5 could provide mutually beneficial business opportunities with Korea. For example, Malaysia clarifies its goals in aerospace industries in its New Industrial Master Plan 2030. Korea established the Korea Aerospace Administration (KASA) in 2024, which is poised to expand its activities in international cooperation. The Philippine Export Development Plan 2023-2028 suggests how the Philippines can utilize comparative advantages in labor-intensive sectors to attract investment. This can provide incentives for Korean businesses concerned about labor costs in Korea and its low fertility rate issues.

    In the second area, critical minerals/food supply chain cooperation, we focus on national strategies provided by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. As a net importer of critical minerals and food, Korea can proactively suggest cooperation packages through which it can contribute to the economic security of Korea and export promotion of the five Southeast Asian nations. For the third area, cooperation in future strategic industries, Korea can collaborate with all five nations in green transition, digital transformation, and semiconductor industries, which are commonly mentioned in each nation’s national strategies in Chapter 5. Working with Korean businesses allows these nations to avoid a dichotomous choice issue between the US and China. Also, as Korean businesses have already attained considerable local networks in ASEAN economies, they can serve as key contributors in constructing an ASEAN-friendly global value chain in future strategic industries.
  • Evolving Agendas in APEC Ministerial Meetings: Tracing the Changing Focus of Eco..
    Evolving Agendas in APEC Ministerial Meetings: Tracing the Changing Focus of Economic Cooperation in Asia-Pacific Region

    This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the thematic evolution within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ministerial meetings from its inception in 1989 to the present, examining over 460 meeting documents. The r..

    Jeongmeen Suh Date 2024.10.02

    APEC, economic growth
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    I. Introduction

    II. Background and Methodology
    2.1. Historical Context and Evolution of APEC Ministerial Meetings
    2.2. Data Sources and Analytical Methods

    III. Changes in Sectoral Composition
    3.1. Sectoral Ministerial Meeting Frequency and Trends
    3.2. Evolution and Trends in High-level Meetings
    3.3. Analysis of Meeting Outcomes and Depth

    IV. Thematic Changes in Major Ministerial Meetings
    4.1. Evolution of Themes in Annual Ministerial Meetings
    4.2. Thematic Shifts in Major Sectoral Meetings
    4.3. Changes in Thematic Consistency Over Time
    4.4. Interrelationships and Thematic Integration Across Meetings

    V. Conclusions

    References

    Appendix 1. List of Venues for APEC Annual Ministerial Meetings
    2. Sector Abbreviations and Full Names
    3. Top-terms in Joint Statements by Major Ministerial Meetings
    4. Dendrogram of Document Similarity (1994~2023)
    Summary
    This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the thematic evolution within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) ministerial meetings from its inception in 1989 to the present, examining over 460 meeting documents. The research employs both quantitative and qualitative methods, including text mining techniques, to uncover primary themes and shifts in policy focus over time. The study is organized into three main areas: first, it investigates the distribution and evolution of agendas across different levels and sectors of APEC meetings. Second, it tracks thematic changes within sector-specific meetings, with a particular emphasis on trade, finance, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Third, it explores the interconnections among these meetings to reveal the dynamic relationships within APEC’s framework. The findings indicate a significant increase in the number and diversity of APEC meetings, reflecting an expanded agenda addressing more complex and emerging issues such as the digital economy, sustainable development, and inclusive growth. The study also identifies a shift from foundational economic arrangements to more diversified topics, demonstrating APEC’s adaptability to contemporary global challenges. Additionally, the research highlights the evolving hierarchical structure among meetings, with a growing focus on digital economy and sustainability. This work offers valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and stakeholders involved in regional economic integration and cooperation, showcasing APEC’s role in addressing both traditional and emerging economic challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.

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