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Exchange Rate Predictability Based on Market Sentiments
World Economy Brief Exchange Rate Predictability Based on Market Sentiments

The purpose of this study is to address this puzzle from a new approach. Rather than pursuing a linkage between macro-fundamentals and exchange rates, we focus on the market sentiment index as a factor that could possibly enhance exchange rate predictability. The analysis folds into three phases. First, we conducted an assessment of the traditional exchange rate predictability model, as well as the augmented traditional model incorporating the market sentiment index. Second, we predicted the exchange rate by applying the market sentiment index, based on the contrarian opinion investment strategy commonly used by foreign ex-change dealers. Finally, we analyzed if the machine learning model incorporating both economic fundamentals and market senti-ment index could enhance the predictability of the exchange rate.

Hyo Sang Kim, Eunjung Kang, Yuri Kim, Seongman Moon and Huisu Jang
Recent Marriage and Labor Supply Pattern of Young Chinese Women
World Economy Brief Recent Marriage and Labor Supply Pattern of Young Chinese Women

In this paper, we examine the impact of a sibling gender on educational attainment, earnings, family formation for a recent cohort of women in China. Family characteristics such as number of siblings, sibling gender composition, and parents’ characteristics may play an important role in children’s life as the presence of a sibling can affect parents’ treatment of the remaining children. Especially male siblings can affect children’s outcome through various pathways as male sibling may pull parental investment of resources away from girls, because boys may be seen as the “higher return” investment (Becker, 1991). We investigate the effect of having a (male) sibling on a daughter by exploiting the change in fertility trend in China induced by the One Child Policy (OCP).

Yoon Jae Ro and Jeonghwan Yun
India's New and Renewable Energy Market: Opportunities and Challenges
KIEP Opinion India's New and Renewable Energy Market: Opportunities and Challenges

The importance of new and renewable energy has been drawing atten-tion since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the average temperature rise below 2°C com-pared to the pre-industrialization era and to limit the future temperature rise to 1.5°C or less. Since its adoption, many countries have become active in using eco-friendly energy, such as new and renewable energy, and providing policies to support the ecosystem of low-carbon industries. However, the domestic new and renewable energy market in Korea is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosystem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation projects. Thus, it is believed that energy coopera-tion with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, it can be a good partner for Korea in the sector.

Hyoungmin Han
International Spread of Anti-dumping Measures and Diversification of Investigation Methodologies
World Economy Brief International Spread of Anti-dumping Measures and Diversification of Investigation Methodologies

As global economic growth has lost momentum due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the tension between U.S. and China, among other developments, concerns about the spread of protectionism are growing. In particular, anti-dumping (AD) measures are more likely to expand in the future in that they are relatively easy to take and have a direct effect on international trade compared to other protectionist trade policies. This study reviews the spread of AD measures and the effects of AD measures on trade. We also pay attention to the fact that AD investigation methodologies are being diversified. Focusing on particular market situation (PMS) and adverse facts available (AFA) provisions, which have been applied in many recent AD investigations on Korean export goods, we analyze the logic of investigation authorities.

Moonhee Cho, Cheon-Kee Lee, Min Ji Kang and Min-chirl Chung
Vietnam’s Global Value Chains Participation and Policy Implications for South Korea-Vietnam Economic Cooperation
World Economy Brief Vietnam’s Global Value Chains Participation and Policy Implications for South Korea-Vietnam Economic Cooperation

The term “value chain” refers to the whole production process of a good or service from the design and raw material processing to manufacturing and market services for the final customers. A global value chain (GVC) indicates production across multiple countries (Simola 2021). Wang et al. (2017) distinguish between simple and complex GVC activities and classify GVC participation in the following four activities: (i) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for the importing country’s final consumption (simple GVC); (ii) export its domestic value added in intermediate exports used by a direct importing country to produce products for importing countries’ exports to third countries (complex GVC forward participation); (iii) importing foreign value added in intermediate imports to produce products for domestic use (simple GVC); (iv) importing foreign value-added in intermediate imports to produce products for its gross exports (complex GVC backward participation).

Quang Hoan Truong
Global Leadership Put to the Test in the Era of Economic Security
KIEP Perspective Global Leadership Put to the Test in the Era of Economic Security

Two common keywords that come up when discussing the Opium Wars and Gandhi's spinning wheel are "British Imperialism" and "economic security." The Opium Wars refer to two mid-19th century armed conflicts sparked by Britain's attempts to compensate for trade deficits

KIM​ Heungchong
The Export Effect of Servitization of Manufacturing
World Economy Brief The Export Effect of Servitization of Manufacturing

This study examines the status and characteristics of Korea’s servitization of manufacturing and its impact on business performance and exports. In particular, we focus on servitization in manufacturing, which can be seen as a part of servicification in manufacturing. It is the phenomenon of manufacturing firms producing more services as final goods and provide them to the market with their products.

Hyunsoo Kim, Jungu Kang, Hyeyoon Keum and Jae Wook Jung

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