국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 선행연구와의 차별성 및 연구방법
3. 연구 구성

제2장 정부조달과 중소기업
1. 조달시장 개방에 관한 국제적 논의
2. 신흥국의 정부조달시장 규모와 개방
3. 정부조달과 중소기업
4. 신흥국의 해외조달 수요 현황

제3장 중국
1. 정부조달시장 개요
2. WTO 정부조달협정 가입협상 경과와 전망
3. 중소기업의 진출 사례와 가능성

제4장 동남아ㆍ인도
1. 베트남
2. 인도네시아
3. 인도
4. 중소기업의 진출여건 평가

제5장 유라시아
1. 러시아
2. 우즈베키스탄
3. 카자흐스탄
4. 중소기업의 진출여건 평가

제6장 중동
1. 사우디아라비아
2. UAE
3. 중소기업의 진출여건 평가

제7장 중동부 유럽
1. 중동부 유럽의 정부조달시장 개요 및 특징
2. 주요국 정부조달시장 분석 및 향후 개방 전망
3. 중소기업의 진출여건 평가

제8장 중남미
1. 멕시코
2. 콜롬비아
3. 칠레
4. 페루
5. 중소기업의 진출여건 평가

제9장 결론 및 시사점
1. 신흥국 정부조달시장 개방실태 종합평가
2. 중소기업 진출방안
3. 정책 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   The purpose of this study is to derive implications for SMEs through analyzing the openness of the government procurement market in emerging countries the prospects of these markets opening up in the future, and the overall possibility and plans of Korean SMEs to enter these markets. The procurement markets of international organizations and advanced countries are already saturated with competition, and it is difficult to expand in the procurement market of advanced countries such as the United States, Canada and the EU as they are strengthening their preferential purchasing system in line with protectionist trade policies. Therefore, this study aimed to find a market for competitive companies in Korea by comprehensively grasping the current situation, openness, growth potential, and potential market demand of emerging markets. In particular, we focused on analyzing the possibility of Korean SMEs advancing into the government procurement market of emerging countries, and to offer suggestions on the direction of procurement policies and trade policies in order to effectively advance into these emerging markets. This study analyzed six emerging regions which are either considering WTO-GPA membership or negotiating FTA agreements with Korea: China, Southeast Asia and India, Eurasia, the Middle East, Middle Eastern Europe and Latin America.
   The results of a comprehensive analysis of the openness of the government procurement markets and entry conditions of SMEs in each region are as follows. First of all, Southeast Asia and India have a large trade volume with Korea and present favorable conditions in terms of proximity and cooperative relations, but the procurement systems in the region show a rather low level of internationalization. The barriers are still significant in terms of language and procurement procedures, making these a more difficult market for SMEs to enter. Eurasia has high barriers to entry in the procurement market, as evidenced by its priorities, certification barriers, SMEs preferential treatment and exclusive practices. Most Latin American countries have open procurement markets in the region and have established RTAs with offshore countries, thus making their procurement systems and procurement market environment very open. However, it is difficult for Korean firms to secure price competitiveness in these markets due to logistics costs arising from long distances and high language barriers. In China, the indicators of openness are very low and procurement barriers are very high despite the high demand. The prospects for entering the Chinese procurement market are not bright as China is not a GPA member and operates a very closed procurement system. Central and East Europe is opening its procurement markets through GPA/FTAs, and the procurement system follows the EU procurement guidelines. The procurement system is also very advanced, and prospects are fair for suppliers who understand the market and have effectively expanded their network. The Middle East shows similar indicators in terms of openness and barriers. The region’s procurement market is open in some aspects, but it is a difficult market for SMEs to enter into on their own because of certification issues, domestic priority purchases etc.
   The major emerging economies in this study are all non-WTO-GPA members, except for Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Central and Eastern Europe. Currently, only China and Russia are in negotiations. Accordingly, it was found that Korean SMEs in the region were not active, as the level of opening in the government procurement market was limited to foreign companies. In particular, cases of advancing into the government procurement market of Eurasian countries – including Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan – where the remaining elements of its previous socialist system and closed economic policies persist, were relatively more rare. The Middle East government procurement market, which is considered to offer ample opportunities, has only been entered in the form of partnerships with large business construction projects, and only a small number of SMEs have entered the Latin American government procurement market. In Southeast Asia, there were some cases of Korean firms entering the government procurement market in the construction sector. However entry by SMEs is not active when considering the market potential, mostly due to the conservative nature of government procurement markets and low level of openness. China is currently negotiating access to the WTO-GPA, and the prospects of these talks remain uncertain. Korean SMEs were very rare in China because of the high barriers for foreign companies to enter the government procurement market. Emerging economies in the Middle East and Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, and Romania) are all members of the GPA, and Korean SMEs are relatively more successful than other regions but independent advancement into the market is quite rare. In order to overcome these practical limitations and take into account the opening conditions and prospects of major emerging economies’ government procurement markets, it is necessary to look into the future strategies of Korean SMEs to enter into these markets.
   The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, one-stop services are needed to support entry into the overseas procurement market. In particular, it is necessary to provide one-stop services led by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups or offer additional information easily accessible from the website of each support organization. Second, there is a need to coordinate overlapping projects among various supporting agencies. Institutions are conducting overlapping research on each country’s market environment, selecting support companies, supporting certification, establishing overseas private networks, and developing market pioneers independently. This needs to be adapted to the strengths and characteristics of each institution. Third, coordination between government administration department is necessary along with such overlapping tasks. Basically, a one-stop system should be set up and government ministries should coordinate their duties to support firms’ advancement into overseas procurement markets. Fourth, we should focus on expanding the openness of government procurement markets in emerging countries by actively utilizing our FTA policy with emerging countries. In other words, in FTA negotiations with emerging economies, we need to establish strategies for entry into emerging markets and specialized foreign economic policies that can enhance accessibility of government procurement markets. Fifth, there is a need for a sustainable SMEs support policy that accurately reflects the realities in the market. Korea provides the greatest amount of support in terms of the number and types of support systems and policies it provides for its SMEs. However, while most SMEs in Korea are involved in the production of intermediate goods rather than final consumer goods, almost all SME support policies are aimed at SMEs producing final consumer goods. Therefore, policies for SMEs in Korea should be designed in a direction to match these firms with new global cooperative partners who can ensure more efficiency and secure competitiveness for these SMEs participating in various GVCs at home or abroad. Sixth, the factors that lead these SMEs to successfully entering the government procurement market is, in the end, quality competitiveness and the ability to respond agilely to the procurement process. Government support for the procurement process (local information, preparation of bidding documents, guarantees, funding, etc.) has already been fully made. The fundamental support system should be transformed into a Public Procurement of Innovative Solutions (PPI) system that enhances the competitiveness of SMEs and products and enables SMEs to participate in domestic and overseas procurement markets. PPI is a system in which the government supports and induces technological innovations from suppliers and acts as a leading buyer of products developed by SMEs. Seventh, with regard to government procurement-related trade policies, the government must make efforts to increase market access to the government procurement market in emerging economies with trade strategies differentiated by emerging countries. For example, the Chinese government procurement market has great market potential, and the Korean government should actively participate in international discussions to encourage China to join the GPA as soon as possible. In preparation for future opening of China’s procurement market, we should support continued research on institutions and markets. On the other hand, Latin American countries are already opening up government procurement markets among countries in the region. Therefore, in order to enter these procurement networks, it is necessary to actively use procurement cooperation channels negotiated by joining the PA member states and effectively utilizing the procurement cooperation channels established when signing FTAs with these economies.
   Recently we are seeing various international discussions on the role of SMEs in government procurement. Korea should actively participate in research on government procurement and small businesses conducted by the OECD or the Small and Medium Business Work Program at the WTO. These international discussions mainly share best practices and advanced systems related to SMEs, thus allowing Korea to benchmark developed countries’ practices and systems and actively participate in international discussions to obtain information on global procurement trends and promising items.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론 
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 선행연구 
3. 주요 연구 내용 및 방법

제2장 중국의 대외경제협력 전략 및 정책 
1. 시기별 대외개방 및 경제협력 전략
2. 지방정부의 대외개방 및 대외경제협력 정책

제3장 주요 지역의 대외경제협력 사례 분석 
1. 광둥성-홍콩 간 협력: 제도협력형
2. 랴오닝성-독일 간 협력: 산업고도화형
3. 충칭-싱가포르 간 협력: 일대일로 연계형

제4장 한국-중국 지방정부 간 주요 경제협력사업 
1. 한국-중국 간 무역·투자 현황
2. 한국-중국 정부 간 주요 경제협의체 및 경제협력 합의
3. 한국 중앙정부-중국 지방정부 간 주요 경제협력사업
4. 평가

제5장 한·중 경제협력 활성화에 대한 시사점 
1. 정부간 협력을 논의할 수 있는 제도적 협력체의 구축
2. 제조업 중심의 협력에서 탈피해 서비스업 분야에서의 협력 강화
3. 제3국 시장 공동진출 등 국가간 정책을 연계한 지방정부와의 협력 추진
4. 인적교류 확대
5. 미래 신산업 분야에서의 협력 확대 
6. 지역발전 전략을 활용한 협력 추진

참고문헌

Executive Summary
 

   As the Chinese economy becomes more advanced and the internal and external economic environment surrounding China changes, so too is China’s strategy for external openness and economic cooperation. Accordingly, specific policies are diversifying from the past focus on manufacturing and foreign direct investment to services, overseas investment, bilateral and multilateral FTAs, and bilateral investment treaties (BITs).
   As the central government’s policy stance changes, China’s local governments are also promoting external openness and cooperation based on regional development stages, industrial structure, and regional development policies, reflecting the central government’s strategy. In particular, after the 19th Party Congress, the central government showed a strategic stance expanding external openness. In response, local governments have moved away from the traditional method of cooperation in the manufacturing sector centered on industrial complexes, and in recent years various cooperative methods have been promoted, including regional economic integration, service and investment, the use of FTAs, and innovations in institutions to expand external openness.
   Along with the shift in China’s foreign economic strategy, the economic cooperation environment surrounding Korea and China is changing as well, including the strengthening of protectionism, structural changes in the Chinese economy, the Korea-China FTA coming into effect, and the launch of follow-up negotiations. Therefore Korea needs to find new strategies and measures for economic cooperation with China, making it time to find new ways to expand cooperation with China’s central and local governments.
   Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyze the strategies, detailed policies and major cases of China’s central and local governments’ external openness and economic cooperation, and to draw policy implications for strengthening economic cooperation between Korea and China in the future.
   First, Chapter 2 analyzes the external openness and economic cooperation strategies implemented by the central government in each period.
   Since 2001, when China joined the WTO, China’s opening and economic cooperation strategies have been gradually expanded to various fields by expanding external openness (10th Five-Year Plan), implementing an open strategy of mutual benefit (11th Five-Year Plan), enhancing the level of mutual openness (12th Five-Year Plan), and establishing a new phase of full openness (13th Five-Year Plan). In particular, the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) suggested active external cooperation strategies such as full implementation of the national treatment plus a negative list management system, opening of the service industry, establishment of a high-level global FTA network, and promotion of the Belt and Road Initiatives.
   In accordance with the strategy and policy stance suggested by the central government, each local government in China is implementing various and specific international economic cooperation projects or external opening policies to reflect regional economic conditions.
   Categorized according to policy and project purpose, a wide range of international economic cooperation measures are being promoted, in the form of: traditional industrial complexes or development zones to promote foreign investment, cooperation for industrial upgrading and urbanization, institutional reform and the establishment of demonstration zones to expand external openness, pilot projects based on FTAs, institutional cooperation for regional economic integration, and cooperation projects to shape the Belt and Road Initiative, among others.
   In Chapter 3, we analyzed three cases of cooperation that are considered successful among China’s foreign economic cooperation projects. First is the case of cooperation between Guangdong and Hong Kong. This can be seen as an institutional cooperation model based on the framework of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) between the two sides. In the past, economic cooperation with Hong Kong was led by the private sector, but since the conclusion of the CEPA, discussions on economic cooperation with Hong Kong have been more based on policies and institutions led by central and local governments. Guangdong has played a leading role in cooperation with Hong Kong, serving as a test bed for pilot basis measures implemented in accordance with the CEPA between mainland China and Hong Kong. In 2015, Zhuhai Hengqin, Shenzhen Chenhai, and Guangzhou Nansha – special areas established as economic cooperation platforms between Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau – were integrated into the Guangdong Free Trade Zone. Since the launch of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2019, cooperation between Hong Kong and Guangdong in the economic and social sectors has been discussed within the context of constructing the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the CEPA is still used to institutionalize issues discussed in the economic sector.
   Second is the case of cooperation between Liaoning and Germany. Liaoning Province, the representative industrial zone of China, promoted the strategy of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China in the early 2000s. In addition, various preferential policies were implemented at the national and local levels. As a result, Germany’s BMW and a number of related companies have entered the region. Afterwards, as China’s central government and Germany’s government actively promoted industrial cooperation, in 2015, the China-Germany (Shenyang) High-end Equipment Manufacturing Industrial Park was established in Shenyang, Liaoning Province. Under policy support from BMW in Germany and the central and local governments of China, the industrial complex maintains double-digit growth rate every year, and plans to expand the scope of industrial cooperation from the internal combustion engine automobile industry to new energy automobile and bio industries.
   Third is the case of cooperation between Chongqing and Singapore. Launched in 2015, the Chongqing-Singapore Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity is the flagship case of the Belt and Road Initiative cooperation between China and Singapore, and the first national-level cooperation project in the services industry between the two countries. The project selects financial, aviation services, information and communication, transportation and logistics services as the four areas of cooperation, and implements various pilot projects through discussions between the two governments. Based on these achievements, the two governments are expanding the scope of cooperation not only to Chongqing but also to the whole of western China and even ASEAN.
   Chapter 4 analyzes economic cooperation projects between Korea and China’s local governments. Until the early 2000s, economic cooperation between South Korea and China’s local governments was mainly based on private companies entering Korean industrial complexes created by the Chinese local governments to attract investment. Since 2010, cooperation between the Korean government and local Chinese governments, led by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, has begun to take off. With the Korea-China FTA taking effect in 2015, cooperation with China’s local governments has been further strengthened by the establishment of Korea-China industrial complexes or the pilot project for local economic cooperation between the cities of Incheon and Weihai. However, most of the economic councils between the central government of Korea and local governments in China often end as one-off consultation events. Therefore, there is a need to improve the effectiveness of cooperation by developing these into regular consultation channels.
   In addition, most of the cooperation models between the Korean central government and China’s local governments – such as the project to establish a separate medical complex for Korean health providers within the Hunan Provincial Health Industrial Park or industrial parks in Korea and China based on the Korea-China FTA – are mostly based on operation models used for Korea-China industrial parks in the 1990s. The typical operation model was to invite labor-intensive manufacturing companies in Korea to invest in Korea-China industrial parks in China to set up factories, while the local Chinese government would grant preferential benefits in terms of land and corporate taxes. Current cooperative projects operate upon a more or less similar model. There is an urgent need to respond to changes in the economic cooperation environment surrounding the two countries by developing a more advanced and sustainable cooperation model.
   In Chapter 5, based on the results analyzed in Chapters 2-4, we suggest ways to promote Korea-China economic cooperation, especially cooperation with local governments in China.
   More specifically, we identify the following policy needs to: establish a consultative body to discuss cooperation between governments; advance beyond the current focus on manufacturing- oriented cooperation and strengthen cooperation in the service sector; promote cooperation with local governments by linking policies at the national level, for instance to jointly advance into third countries; expand human exchange; expand cooperation in future new industries; and promote cooperation using regional development strategies.
   In particular, to strengthen cooperation with local governments in China, it is important to operate a council that encompasses industry, academia, research, and government actors to develop strategic cooperation rather than only producing one-time exchanges between governments. It will also be necessary to prepare an overall roadmap for economic cooperation with local governments and a cooperation model that can actually lead to specific cooperation projects or pilot projects.

Executive Summary

​

1. Introduction

2. Analysis

2-1. Identification Strategy

2-2. Data

3. Results

3-1. Import-restricting Measures

3-2. Antidumping Measure as an FDI Determinant

3-3. Robustness Check

4. Concluding Remarks

References

Appendix

In this study, we investigate the question whether importing countries’ implementation of protective trade measures, such as antidumping duties, leads to changes in foreign direct investment from trading partners. That is, we examine the prevalence of “ADP-jumping FDI” across countries. We use more recent and organized non-tariff measure data provided by the WTO I-TIP and Ghodsi et al. (2017), which can be matched with other trade-related variables. Using econometrically sensible identification strategies, the Tobit and the Heckman two-stage selection models, we find out that ADP-jumping FDI to importing countries prevails rather consistently around the world. These results are also consistent with those using Poisson and linear fixed effects models.

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 목적
2. 선행연구 검토
3. 연구의 방법
4. 연구의 주요 내용과 기대효과

제2장 이론적 검토
1. 대외경제협력 거버넌스
2. 대외경제협력 거버넌스와 경제협력의 관계
3. 요약 및 함의

제3장 러시아 대외경제협력 거버넌스의 특징과 함의
1. 러시아 대외경제협력 거버넌스의 개요
2. 러시아 대외경제협력 거버넌스의 특징
3. 요약 및 함의

제4장 주요국의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스 사례 분석
1. 중국의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스
2. 일본의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스
3. 독일의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스
4. 베트남의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스
5. 요약 및 함의

제5장 한국의 대러 경제협력 정책과 거버넌스 평가
1. 한국의 대러 경제협력 정책과 거버넌스
2. 한국의 대러 경제협력 거버넌스 평가

제6장 결론
1. 연구 내용 요약 및 함의
2. 정책 제언

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   Preparing for the next 30 years of relations between Korea and Russia is a true starting point for Korea's future national strategy of building a “bridging nation that connects the continent with the sea.” In order to achieve this national strategy, the Korean government should focus on establishing economic cooperation governance that can effectively promote a sustainable economic cooperation strategy with Russia. As in Russia the government plays a particularly influential role, creating strong ties through intergovernmental working groups meetings and establishing an institutional foundation at the private level can be a useful approach to promoting economic cooperation between the two countries.
   Chapter 2 presents our theoretical model based on the conceptual definition and key role of economic cooperation governance. In particular, while paying attention to transaction costs as an important factor in determining the level of external economic cooperation, we attempted to make theoretical definitions of search and monitoring costs, which are the sources of transaction costs. Ultimately, good external economic cooperation could be defined as a series of institutional systems that effectively lower transaction costs.
   In Chapter 3, an in-depth study of Russia's external economic cooperation governance was conducted. First we present the directions and tasks for establishing economic cooperation governance based on the Russian government's foreign economic strategy, and discuss promising directions for promoting foreign economic cooperation with major countries (Korea, Germany, Japan, China, and Vietnam). The Russian government has sought to expand its platform for economic cooperation by strengthening bilateral relations with major partner countries. In cooperation with major countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Korea, China, and Japan), which are rapidly emerging in the global economy, Russia has diversified its trade structure by strengthening cooperation to execute development programs in the Far East and Siberia. Russia has also given priority to reactivating its investment cooperation with Vietnam, which it has enjoyed a special relationship with since the Soviet Union era, and Germany, with which it established close relations during the post-Cold War unification process.
   In Chapter 4 we analyze various cases of economic governance in four major countries (Germany, Japan, China and Vietnam). Each of these countries are common in that they share regional and strategic interests with Russia. While Germany and Japan are participating in economic sanctions against Russia, China and Vietnam are not. China and Germany have established a strong economic governance platform as Russia's first and second largest trading and import partners in the area of energy resources. In addition, Vietnam has been cooperating with Russia since the Soviet Union era and has maintained close ties with Russia to present day based on solid mutual trust. While Japan remains a participant in economic sanctions against Russia and is undergoing territorial disputes with Russia, nevertheless it has been one of Russia's major partner countries for Far East development and Arctic energy cooperation projects.
   Chapter 5 provides an overall review of Korea's economic cooperation policy and governance. In September 2017, through a keynote speech delivered at the 3rd Eastern Economic Forum General Assembly held in Vladivostok, the Korean government officialized its New Northern Policy. The Moon Jae-in administration has set economic cooperation with Russia as the primary goal of the New Northern Policy, also adopting the 9-Bridge Strategy to promote cooperative tasks in nine sectors. However, as we prepare for the 30th year of diplomatic relations between Korea and Russia in 2020, it will be essential to strive for more substance in economic cooperation between the two countries. As such, it is time for more fundamental concerns about Korea's economic cooperation governance with Russia.
   In relation to these concerns, the opinions of domestic and foreign experts on Korea's economic cooperation governance offer the following potential conclusions. First, in relation to the economic cooperative bodies established between the two countries, we point out several entities that should be abolished or integrated, and identify the most efficient and necessary bodies, as well as institutions that should be newly established. Second, in the area of public-private and private economic cooperation bodies, we identify institutions that should be abolished or integrated, institutions that should be reorganized and institutions that should be newly established. Third, in regard to the various support systems to promote Korea-Russia bilateral economic cooperation and Korea's economic cooperation with Russia, we identify those that should be abolished or integrated, or require fundamental improvement in their operations, and support systems that should be newly established.
   In Chapter 6, based on the above findings, we present six ways to improve Korea's external economic cooperation governance with Russia.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 신보호무역주의의 발호와 세계경제의 갈등
2. 연구의 방향

제2장 미국 보호무역주의가 한국 및 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향
1. 서론
2. 모형 및 데이터
3. 분석결과
4. 시사점 및 소결

제3장 보호무역과 고용: 비관세조치를 중심으로
1. 개요
2. 실증분석
3. 소결

제4장 보호무역주의정책과 국가 간 투자흐름 분석
1. 반덤핑조치 현황
2. 분석
3. 소결

제5장 보호무역주의가 경기변동에 미치는 영향
1. 서론
2. 선행연구
3. 현황
4. 시계열 분석
5. 수출 품목별 패널 분석
6. 소결

제6장 보호무역주의정책의 경제적 영향과 정책대응: 통화 및 재정정책을 중심으로
1. 서론
2. 문헌연구
3. 분석모형
4. 모의실험 결과 및 정책적 시사점
5. 소결

제7장 마치는 글
1. 요약 및 결론
2. 정책적 시사점
3. 연구의 한계

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   In this report, we tried to examine the economic impacts of protectionist policies from micro- and macro-economic perspectives and to draw policy implications. Instead of analyzing a narrowly- defined single policy of protectionism and its economic consequences, this report opts to compile five rather loosely-bound analyses under the theme of protectionism. The following is a summary of the main findings of the report.  
   Chapter 2 uses the Caliendo and Parro (2015) model to analyze the short-run impacts of US protectionism on the global and Korean economy. The analysis includes the impacts of Section 232 steel tariffs and Section 301 tariffs, as well as the subsequent retaliatory tariffs. The results regarding US Section 301 tariffs and China’s retaliatory tariffs document how China was the party to experience the largest decrease in welfare. Most of China’s welfare reductions were due to deterioration in terms of trade. The United States, on the other hand, enjoyed an increase in welfare. Korea is experiencing a small increase in welfare. This suggests that, at least in the short-run, the US-China trade conflict is not inflicting significant damage on the Korean economy as a whole.  
   Chapter 3 aims to quantify the effects of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on both exports and employment in the Korean manufacturing industry. To do this, we employ product-level export data that includes information about whether a product is affected by non-tariff measures. The main results can be summarized as follows: NTMs (SPS/TBT) generally lead to a decrease in Korea’s exports and, as a result, negatively affect domestic employment. Also, the negative impacts of NTMs on employment via export channels were found to be mitigated as the capital intensity of the industry increased. Given the rapid increase in capital intensity due to technological improvement and innovation in production processes, the negative effects of NTMs on domestic employment are expected to continue to weaken in most industries.  
   In Chapter 4, among various factors affecting foreign direct investment, antidumping measures were empirically examined to understand their relation with protectionist policies. This chapter consists of three analyses using three different datasets: OECD members and major partner economies, the United States as a reporting country (antidumping action country), and Korea as a target country. The analysis yields quite clear results in the first analysis, with many observations and relatively diverse countries. So-called “quid pro quo FDI,” first suggested by Bhagwati (1986), is at work. As for importing countries, the probability of implementing anti-dumping measures is likely to increase when imports from partner countries increase, while it decreases when exports to partner countries increased. This study also finds that there is a significant negative correlation between the inflow of foreign direct investment (IFDI) and the number of anti-dumping charges. In addition, it should be noted that FTAs play a very significant role in mitigating anti-dumping measures. However, since the number of observations is not so large, the analyses for individual countries show less congruous outcomes. In the case of the United States as a reporting country, there is no clear relationship between the inflow of foreign direct investment (IFDI) and the number of anti-dumping charges. Korea’s analysis as a target country shows some anti-dumping mitigation due to the expansion of investment at a low statistical significance. FTAs also seem to be helping to mitigate anti-dumping measures to some extent. Furthermore, the chemical and metal/metal processing sectors are the two main sectors in which Korea has become the target of anti-dumping measures. In the chemical sector, the expansion of investment and FTA relationships with other economies have helped to alleviate anti-dumping charges.  
   In Chapter 5, we investigate the impact of anti-dumping investigation on Korea’s economy using time-series and panel data. The structural VAR (vector autoregression) result using time-series data shows that Korea’s production, inflation, and export all declined in response to an anti-dumping investigation shock. The interest rate also decreased, and the exchange rate depreciated after the shock and then rose again. Overall, the impact of an anti-dumping investigation plays as a negative demand shock. The panel analysis shows that the impact of an anti-dumping investigation results in a decline in export by 10% on average over the three quarters following the shock. The impact of the anti-dumping investigation shock on exports is inconsistent and considerably different across source countries and sectors. This implies that the effect of expanding protectionism on the economy does not work through just the single channel of lowering export competitiveness. Thus, searching for alternative markets, productivity improvement, and increased incentives for innovation can have a positive effect on exports, depending on the sectors or the corresponding period, even during an era of heightened protectionism. Policy authorities need to respond to protectionism through the formation of strategies tailored to the characteristics of the export industry structure.  
   Chapter 6 analyzes the effects of global protectionism on macroeconomics in Korea through the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and seeks macroeconomic policies as countermeasures against global protectionism. The results of the analysis are as follows. If a trading partner imposes a tariff on imports from Korea, Korea suffers an overall economic downturn. In particular, when counter-parties impose tariffs on Korea, this reduces exports, acting as a kind of (overseas) demand shock. Tariffs reduce Korea's GDP, private consumption, private investment and trade balances and price falls. In response to this economic downturn, expansionary monetary policy (expressed as a more aggressive interest rate cut) could mitigate the economic downturn. In this case, however, the trade deficits (or decrease in surplus) due to an increase in demands for imported goods in Korea could worsen. On the other hand, expansionary government expenditures in response to economic slowdown have the effect of reducing the decrease in GDP, but have resulted in a decline in private consumption and investment. This seems to reflect the crowding-out effects of government spending. In addition, foreign tariffs on Korea have been shown to reduce Korea’s real exchange rate. Devaluation of the real exchange rate can partially offset price competitiveness in overseas markets, but the analysis shows that this effect is not significant.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경
2. 연구의 의의

제2장 인구구조, 경제발전, 대외변수: 정성적 분석
1. 인구구조 변화와 고령화
2. 인구구조와 경제발전
3. 인구구조와 대외변수
4. 일본사례

제3장 인구구조 변화가 경상수지에 미치는 영향: 실증분석
1. 선행연구
2. 분석방법
3. 분석결과
4. 인구구조 변화에 따른 한국의 경상수지 전망
5. 소결

제4장 소규모개방경제에서 인구구조가 대외변수에 미치는 영향: 구조모형
1. 서론 및 연구배경
2. 모형경제
3. 모수설정
4. 모형 결과 분석
5. 소결

제5장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 한국경제에 대한 시사점
2. 정책적 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   This study investigates the long-term effects of demographic changes on current account and net foreign assets. Along with economic developments, there are three stages of the demographic changes; (1) high birth rate and high mortality rate, (2) high birth rate and low mortality rate, and (3) low birth rate and low mortality rate. Population growth and aging occur in the process. Korea is one of the countries that experienced the fastest demographic changes with increasing life expectancy and decreasing fertility rates in the world. The elderly support rate is also expected to increase rapidly.
   Meanwhile, the current account balance is the sum of trade balance (net export), and income balance, defined as the income difference between the foreign investment of residents and the domestic investment of foreigners. Trade balance can be interpreted as the difference between domestic saving and investment. Demographic changes can affect consumption and saving decisions of households and investment of firms. For example, aging can increase the incentives for the consumption of the economy and reduce savings, which could potentially lead to current account deficits.
   According to the results of the empirical analysis of Chapter 3 and overlapping generations (OLG) model of Chapter 4, Korea accounts for a large part of the current account surplus with a current high proportion of the working-age population, and it is expected to become the current account deficit with an aging population. Using the 2019 World Population Prospects of UN to predict the impact of demographic changes on the current account, the current account surplus of Korea will turn into deficit after the 2030s.
   Korea has become an advanced country by taking advantage of the open economy that helps to sustain high growth. However, the Korean Won has limited international compatibility, and its value is mainly determined by the supply and demand for foreign exchange. Once the current account turns into deficit, it may act as a background for the instability of the foreign exchange market and the financial crisis.
   The current account surplus of Korea mainly comes from the export-driven trade surplus. The current account surplus can be interpreted as foreign savings for future consumption, which is ultimately accumulated in a net foreign asset position. Net foreign assets can contribute to the current account surplus with income balances such as dividends and interest. Korea has maintained its current account surplus since 1998 but has entered the net foreign assets surplus country in 2014. Given the rapid demographic change, it is important to establish a virtuous cycle of current account surplus and net foreign asset accumulation.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구의 구성

제2장 노동소득분배율 국제 비교
1. 노동소득분배율의 측정
2. 노동소득분배율의 측정 결과
3. 노동소득분배율의 국가간 비
4. 소결

제3장 노동소득분배율 결정요인 분석
1. 개방경제에서의 노동소득분배율
2. 노동소득분배율 결정요인
3. 노동소득분배율 결정요인에 관한 실증분석
4. 소결

제4장 노동소득분배율 결정요인의 후생효과 분석을 위한 구조모형
1. 이론적 배경
2. 모형
3. 모형의 추정 및 후생효과 분석
4. 소결

제5장 결론 및 정책방향
1. 결론
2. 정책방향

참고문헌

Executive Summary
 

   The decline in labor share is recognized as a global phenomenon. Concerns have been raised that this trend will exacerbate the income inequality between business owners as capitalists and households as the labor suppliers, prompting a decline in household income and consumption, which are major driving forces for sustainable growth. Meanwhile, various policy measures have been introduced to raise the labor share, with the aim of correcting inequality and boosting growth. This study explores the determinants of labor share and analyzes the effects of these factors on the economy and social welfare, offering various interpretations and policy alternatives according to economic conditions.
   Chapter 2 shows the difficulty in measuring the labor share, which is defined as the share of labor income in the national income. The measurement of labor income is an issue of particular controversy due to differing opinions on how to handle the self-employed, that is, the separation of labor income from self-employment income. Under- or over-estimation of the labor share is rooted in this difference. Details must be taken into account when interpreting the results, as the possibility of transmitting wrong signals cannot be ruled out under the current policy framework.
   In Chapter 3, the effects of globalization on the labor share is examined using a  panel data analysis. Trade openness, foreign direct investment, and international investment position are considered as proxies of globalization. The estimation results confirmed the followings. First, the labor share declines with the advent of globalization, and trade openness has greater effect than foreign direct investment. However, the expansion of international investment has little impact on labor share. Second, the labor share is found to be more affected by globalization when the income of the self-employed is considered. Third, expansion of social security funds raises the labor share. As globalization is a mega-trend beyond the control of a small open economy, a decline in labor share should be considered as a by-product. Moreover, redistribution policy can work as an inclusive policy alternative.
   Chapter 4 examines the theoretical aspects of labor share. Along with the imperfect competitive structure in the product and factor market, the CES production function is considered in analyzing the impact of structural shocks on the labor share. In this analysis, the effects on social welfare were also identified, including the effects on key macro variables. In a simple static setting with market concentrations and capital-labor complementarity, the labor share can increase with the introduction of redistributive policies such as minimum wage and unemployment benefits. An empirical analysis using the structural dynamic model of Korea shows that the labor share increases as a result of capital-augmenting technological progress accompanied by a decrease in the relative price of investment goods. In contrast, labor-augmenting technological progress lowers relative wages but also reduces working hours, consumption, and the labor share. In this case, however, the decrease in disutility due to the reduced working hours is relatively large and the social welfare increases in the short run. These results imply that social welfare can be reduced while labor share increases. This indicates that not only the components in the national account but also employment market statistics should be taken into account when the labor share is considered as a policy indicator.
   Implications for the effects of globalization can also be found in the model. Increasing monopoly power of firms and labor supply, respectively, lead to an increase in price markup and wage markup. First, the opening of the domestic market increases the competitiveness of domestic firms from restructuring such as exiting and merger of marginal firms, which results in higher market concentration. This lowers the labor share through rising price markup in the model and reduces social welfare. On the other hand, when foreign capital flows in due to the opening of the financial market, the pressure on flexible labor market increases, which lowers the wage markup by reducing the labor share.
   Chapter 5 concludes with policy suggestions: improving the trade adjustment assistance program, supporting growth through globalization of SMEs, and establishing a fair supplier-buyer relationship in the supply chain.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 연구방법 및 구성·범위
3. 연구의 의의 및 한계

제2장 한국의 직업교육 ODA  현황 및 인력수요 조사방법
1. 한국의 직업교육 ODA 현황
2. 한국 직업교육 ODA 사업의 인력수요 조사방법
3. 소결: 인력수요 조사방법 개선의 필요성

제3장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망 방법론: 전통적 방법
1. 정량분석
2. 정성분석
3. 분석방법의 결합

제4장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망 방법론의 시범적용: 베트남
1. 베트남 적용 이유 및 의의
2. 계량분석 결과
3. 기업체 설문조사 결과
4. 이해관계자 면담조사 결과
5. 정량분석과 정성분석의 결합: 무선통신장비 제조업의 중기 인력수요 전망

제5장 신흥국 산업인력 수요전망의 새로운 접근방법 모색
1. 새로운 분석방법론 모색의 필요성
2. 국제 분업체계에 따른 글로벌 가치사슬 분석 접근
3. 디지털 데이터 접근에 따른 빅 데이터 분석

제6장 맺음말

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs are a critical area within the official development assistance (ODA) mandate of Korea. Korea is implementing TVET projects in a wide range of regions, including Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Africa. Considering the increasing demand for TVET from developing countries, Korea is expected to continue and expand its TVET projects. Korea has not been conducting systematic labor market forecast in the preparation and implementation of TVET projects. Developing systematic labor forecast methods and increasing predictability of labor demand should precede actual hardware supports, including the construction of job training centers and distribution of training materials as well as curriculum development, in order to increase the efficiency of TVET projects. However, the labor demand forecasts conducted by Korea up to now largely fall short of these expectations.
   This study aims to develop systematical labor forecast methods, thereby contributing to increasing the efficiency of TVET ODA. Towards this, the study suggests a labor forecast method that considers characteristics of developing countries, and applies the method to Vietnam as a pilot application. Based on the results, this study estimates Vietnam’s future labor demand by industry and by occupation. In addition, this study introduces alternative labor market projection methods that can possibly deal with new changes observed in the labor markets of emerging countries.
   Chapter 2 reviews Korean TVET ODA projects and evaluates the demand side of the projects, for instance whether any labor market forecasts had been conducted for these projects or not, and the scope and method of labor market forecast. We examine project proposals, project validity studies, and evaluation studies for evaluating how much the demand side was considered in the process of implementing TVET projects.
   In Chapter 3, as a precursor to developing an alternative labor projection method, we introduce labor forecast models used in developing and advanced countries and compare their characteristics. Labor forecast studies started as the issue of effective human resource allocation emerged as a national task for many countries after World War Ⅱ. Accurate macroeconomic projection is critical for labor forecast, because labor demand is basically derived demand generated as the aggregate demand of economic increases. Recently, econometric methods based on the general equilibrium model are largely used in order to include inter-related effects of sectors, by using population, macroeconomic, industrial, and labor time series data. As the model becomes larger, several countries divide the economy into several blocks (e.g. macroeconomy, international economy, labor market, etc.) and focus on the dynamic estimation in each block. Furthermore, qualitative methods are used to take account for the impact of emergence of new industries and decline of existing industries due to technological innovation and international trade environmental change.
   In Korea, the Korea Employment Information Service was established to perform projections of labor demand and supply starting from 2006. This labor forecast reflects changes in population, society, economy, and industry structure. The projection model is largely composed of a section dealing with aggregate labor supply and demand forecast, and a forecast of new labor force. The section on aggregate labor supply and demand forecast estimates the stock of labor supply and demand based on the composition and trends in the labor force, and industrial growth prospects. The section on new labor force forecast estimates the flow of labor supply and demand and the supply-demand gap for a certain time period and looks at how new labor supply and demand change by education, major, and technology. The labor supply forecast estimates the labor force based on population prospects using census data and economic participation rate projections using labor force survey data. The labor demand forecast estimates real value-added based on industry prospects using an industry-macro econometric model with national income account data, and labor demand forecast by industry by multiplying employment coefficients earned from labor and production time series data by industry. This is used for estimating labor demand forecast by industry and occupation in addition to an estimated industry-occupation labor demand matrix. Finally the recursive structure of the model satisfies the matched aggregate labor supply and demand at the natural unemployment rate level. Labor forecast methods used in most advanced countries are similar to the Korean model. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics model uses segmented data by industry and occupation, while the Dutch ROA model is characterized by segmenting and forecasting job prospects by sector or level of education in the underlying labor markets.
   In most developing countries, the lack of statistics data or forecasting capacity and experience makes it difficult to implement a systematic labor market forecast. Some countries are developing methodologies to build statistical information and forecasts for industrial labor demand with the support of international organizations such as the International Labor Organization or donor countries. However, these projects are likely to end as one-time events while performing forecasts on industrial labor demand involves huge expense and experts. This makes it difficult to systemize and maintain the industrial labor demand forecasting system independently.
   Quantitative and qualitative analysis have different strengths and weaknesses. It is necessary to increase prediction power through a “combination” of the analytical methods rather than relying on any one method. Combining analytical methods needs more time and cost than using one method, but various methods can be utilized to increase the reliability of predictions.
   In Chapter 4, we applied our labor forecasting methodology to Vietnam, an exemplary emerging country, to estimate future labor demand by industry and occupation, as a pilot analysis that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses for emerging countries. Vietnam was chosen for the pilot because of the following reasons. The level of labor market statistics is relatively high compared to other emerging economies, while the manufacturing industry, a key industry in vocational education ODA projects, accounts for a high proportion in the economy. Also, Vietnam is the largest recipient of TVET assistance from Korea. First of all, we use data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam to forecast labor demand for 20 major classification industries and nine major classification occupations. Based on the forecasting methodology used in Korea, the outlook for industrial and occupational classification was implemented, but due to the characteristics of emerging countries that have short time series data and less stable macroeconomic prospects, we could only perform a mid-term forecast for the period of 2019 to 2024. Our results indicate a significant trend difference by industry though the total number of employees is expected to increase by 0.5% annually on average by 2024. Employment in the manufacturing sector is expected to increase by 2.4% per year, while employment in primary industries such as the agricultural and mining sectors is expected to decrease by 0.8% to 3.1% per year. By occupation, employment in professional groups is expected to increase by 5.3% per year, while elementary occupations and skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers are expected to decrease by 1.9% to 3.5% per year. In addition, according to the purpose of this study, we implemented a labor demand forecast for detailed industries and occupations within the manufacturing industry, which is at the core of vocational training. Due to the lack of detailed statistics on the manufacturing industry within the data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, we chose to use data taken from the UNIDO Industrial Statistics (INDSTAT) Database 4 on value-added and number of employees by industries in the manufacturing industry. Total employment in the manufacturing industry is expected to increase by 1.7% annually during the 2017-2024 period. Employment in the manufacture of communication equipment (Industry 263 in ISIC Rev. 4) increased by 47.3% and 35.8% annually for 2007-2012 and 2013-2016, respectively, but the annual growth rate of employment in this sector is expected to adjust to 3.9% annually during 2017-2024.
   Currently, traditional quantitative forecasting methods can be applied only to 161 minor groups (3 digits) of industries in Vietnam, because unit-level (4 digits) statistics have not been fully established. Accordingly, using non-traditional methods is necessary in labor forecast for further detail industries at unit level. We applied a hybrid method of quantitative and qualitative approaches to the manufacture of wireless communication equipment, one of the most prominent sectors recently in the Vietnamese manufacturing industry, and given that TVET projects mostly target the manufacturing sector, this study chose model cases among the manufacturing industries. Import and export statistics, enterprise survey, and interview of Vietnamese government officials and experts on Vietnamese industry are conjointly used in the labor forecast of wireless communication equipment, based on the quantitative projection of its upper level category, the manufacture of communication equipment. UNIDO currently provides data on the Vietnamese communication equipment manufacturing industry at minor group level, thus an enterprise survey was implemented in order to gain more detailed statistics. Since the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) does not specify unit level categories, we follow the Korean Standard Industrial Classification (KSIC) and divide the manufacture of communication equipment industry into manufacture of “wire communication equipment” and “broadcasting and wireless communication equipment (hereinafter wireless communication equipment).” We conducted an enterprise survey in only one of the two unit level industries due to time and budget concerns. Considering how cellular phones and relevant parts take a large part of Vietnamese exports, the manufacture of wireless communication equipment was selected for our enterprise survey. The enterprise survey asked respondents for their outlooks on the industry, the current employment status and future labor demand of the industry, and the future labor demand of three types of occupation (professionals, technicians and associate professionals, plant and machine operators and assemblers) that are closely related to TVET ODA within the industry. In order to compare trend changes over time, survey questions on the future outlook were subdivided into short-term (next year) and medium-term (next five years) expectations. Most of the respondents were foreign-owned companies, with companies producing cellular phones and related parts constituting a substantial part. Additionally, the portion of large companies with 500 or more employees was relatively large in the sample compared to the portion of large companies in the entire Vietnamese industry. Regarding the development of the wireless communication equipment industry, most companies evaluated the industry as showing stable growth. Particularly, enterprises with 500 or more employes appeared to have more positive expectations on the future of the industry. With regard to labor demand, more than half of the respondents had employed workers during the previous year. Among them, newly established companies, defined as companies established within the past five years, were more actively hiring new employees. Considering the future labor demand, most enterprises answered that they plan to further increase their employees over the medium term (five years) than over the short term (one year). The labor demand for the three occupations asked in the survey is expected to gradually increase over the medium term. The demand for “plant and machine operators and assemblers,” in particular, was higher than demands for other occupations. In the longer term, together with the technological development of Vietnam, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” occupation can possibly replace unskilled elementary occupations. In order to include qualitative analysis in our hybrid-type of labor forecasting method, we interviewed Vietnamese stakeholders in institutes and ministries in charge of economy planning, economic forecast, and statistics. The interviews aimed to identify the characteristics and problems of the Vietnamese labor market, stakeholders’ expectations on the outlook of wireless communication equipment industry and labor demand, and the demand for TVET assistance. The information collected from interviews was used in adjusting estimated labor demand by industry and occupation, gained from a combination of quantitative analysis and enterprise survey, and in deriving policy implications for TVET assistance. Firstly, the Vietnamese labor market is characterized by a large informal sector, less skilled workers, and substantial portion of foreign-owned companies in labor-intensive industries. Secondly, the experts’ opinions on the outlook of wireless communication equipment were divided into largely positive and negative expectations. Some experts predicted that the wireless communication equipment industry would continue to show a high level of growth, and accordingly, labor demand growth rate would be high. These experts suggested the possibility of foreign direct investment increasing, the Vietnamese government’s drive to promote wireless communication equipment industry, and local enterprises’ participation in cellular phone production as factors supporting their views. On the other hand, other experts with a somewhat pessimistic view expected a slowdown in the growth of the wireless communication equipment industry. These respondents presented the decrease in Samsung Electronics’ production in Vietnam, and the possible decrease in foreign investment due to lack of capacity among local laborers and enterprises as arguments for their opinions. Lastly, regarding TVET ODA, the demand for training of unskilled laborers is high.
   Finally, we combined the quantitative analysis, enterprise survey, and stakeholder interview, and subsequently estimated labor demand for the three key occupations in the Vietnamese wireless communication equipment industry. To be specific, we estimated the industry prospect of the wireless communication equipment industry, the overall labor demand prospect of the industry, and the labor demand for the three occupations in the industry, by applying the result of our enterprise survey to the estimated value added of the Vietnamese communication equipment industry calculated in Chapter 4 and trade statistics. The estimated numbers were adjusted to reflect the result of stakeholder interviews to supplement the lack of data. According to the quantitative analysis, the communication equipment industry annually grew by about 60% for the last 10 years, and accordingly its largest subdivision, the wireless communication equipment industry, was estimated to have expanded at a similar rate. Regarding the future prospects of the wireless communication equipment industry, the quantitative analysis estimated that this growth rate would slow to 20% per year over five years. Considering the survey results and interviews supporting views that the growth rate of the industry in the next five years will be 5?10%, however, the medium-term growth rate of the industry was adjusted to 10%. Concerning the labor demand, the annual employment growth rate was estimated at around 2% for the next five years, based on combining the trend of employment inducement coefficient from quantitative analysis, the enterprise survey, and stakeholder interviews. Currently, element occupations take the largest portion in the labor demand by industry and occupation, but over the next five years, the “plant and machine operators and assemblers” group is expected to gradually increase, thus becoming the largest occupation group in the wireless communication equipment industry in the near future.
   This study estimated labor demand by occupations in the wireless communication equipment industry in Vietnam, by combining quantitative analysis and quantitative survey. This method is readily applicable to other emerging countries. Although most emerging countries have less-detailed labor statistics compared to Vietnam, many of them still provide time series data on the major (1 digit) and sub-major (2 digits) group level. Thus, quantitative analysis, one of the bases for our new method, is feasible on these levels. Furthermore, many developing countries are establishing national and labor statistics system with the help of the International Labor Organization and other developed countries. Therefore, in the medium and longer term, the use of quantitative analysis is likely to increase.
   For the labor demand forecast in the industry integrated in the international division of labor, the Global Value Chain method introduced in Chapter 5 can be applied. When considering the active participation of emerging countries in global value chains, this method may be practical. Lastly, big data analysis, which has been used but limitedly so far even in advanced countries, can also be practically used to forecast labor demand in developing countries, taking increased internet use and online job advertisements in these countries into account. While the big data method has certain disadvantages considering the large informal sector in developing countries, this method also has some advantages compared to traditional labor demand surveys, such as being cost-efficient and increasing the frequency of information collection. As the method can immediately reflect labor market changes in the labor forecast, it could be widely useful in emerging industries rather than traditional industries. ODA implementing agencies would benefit from paying attention to the labor forecasting methods presented in this research and devise policies supporting these methods in order to properly apply these methods in reality.
 

국문요약 

제1장 브라질과 멕시코 환경시장 연구 목적 / 연구내용 및 방법
1. 환경 이슈 및 환경시장 연구
2. 연구방법

제2장 브라질과 멕시코 환경시장 및 환경정책 발전과 한계
1. 경제발전 전망: 2019~20년
2. 환경시장 발전 전망
3. 시대별 환경 이슈와 정책 변화

제3장 브라질의 환경 정책·기술·투자 현황
1. 브라질 환경정책 현황
2. 브라질 환경기술 산업
3. 브라질 환경시장 투자

제4장 멕시코의 환경정책·기술·투자 현황
1. 멕시코 환경정책 이행과 한계
2. 멕시코 환경산업 기술
3. 멕시코 환경시장 투자

제5장 진출방안
1. 브라질 환경산업 및 시장 진출방안
2. 멕시코 환경산업 및 시장 진출방안
3. 한국 정부와 기업의 브라질-멕시코 환경협력 선호도 평가

제6장 결론

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   In the 2010s, the Latin American environmental market has been developing with a stable growth trend particularly in the pollution treatment industry, such as water quality, air pollution and waste management. At the same time, environmental markets such as new energy production and management industries (renewable energy development, storage, etc.) are rapidly growing in terms of efficient use of resources. At the same time, the environmental market has been developing in response to climate change by strengthening international cooperation in the field of climate change, which is a global agenda, and improving the efficiency of resource and energy use as well.
   Korea’s entry into the Latin American environmental market is traditionally the environmental market with a traditional concept of air pollution prevention and monitoring, water quality management and waste management. It is also focused on emerging climate change-related industries (eg renewable energy development). Of course, the environmental restoration and knowledge service sectors, which are regarded as promising environmental markets in the future, are expected to gradually expand overseas in line with the development of the domestic environmental industry. In particular, the advancement of renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) related to climate change has already begun to use the ‘Public-Private Partnership (PPP)’ investment method, which is likely to develop into a leader for the next-generation environmental market as well as the potential for future business.
   The environmental market concept which this research focused on covers the market of goods and services with three fields of industry with its strength and one promising sector. The assessment of possibility for entering the environmental market and market potential in Brazil and Mexico is not limited to the evaluation of technology demand, it is also included policy demand for the development of the environmental market. For example, included with country’s national plan for the development of the environmental industry with both country’s environmental policy and environmental law.
   In Chapter 2, this paper investigated environmental issues and policy changes over time in Brazil and Mexico, based on the historical approach with environmental law and institution change and development for a long time since the early of 20th century.
   Chapters 3 and 4 analyzed the environmental industry policy and technology status in four sectors in Mexico and Brazil from the integrated perspective of ‘policy-technology-investment’ relationship. In addition, through these chapters it is also analyzed comparatively the financial and investment efforts of the Federal and Central Governments in both countries. in addition this analysis was extended to the areas of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), various investments by international environmental organizations who are representing the region, and ODA investment approaches by the EU and developed countries as well. In Chapter 5, this paper tried to find ways for Korean governments and enterprises to enter Mexican and Brazilian environmental markets, such as concrete action plans for entering new market. This chapter also attempted to analyze the market potential of promising sectors which are likely to enter the next generation.
   Focusing on the development of ‘environmental policy’ in Brazil and Mexico, the following are the real action plans to enter the Brazilian and Mexican market in consideration of environmental technology and future environmental investment factors.
   Firstly, looking at the development of environmental markets in Brazil and Mexico by age, it is observed that the markets have been developed from the early policy interests in ‘air pollution’ to the water resource management in the 1990s, the waste management in the 2000s, and the climate change field with increasing market potential currently. As observed the historical change or transformation characters of environmental issues in Brazil and Mexico and the changes in technological demands of each period, Korea’s company should not only continue to advance traditional and strong technologies (3 main sectors), but also has a strategy to enter the climate change market with great potential. For example and in particular, both countries are interested in the renewable energy sector where greenhouse gas reduction costs are lower than strategies for changing macro-economic policies and industrial structures to reduce greenhouse gases.
   Secondly, the institutional change such as introduction of the pollutant pay principle in environmental policy has led Brazil and Mexico to gradually shift the direction of policy and industry and future by introducing and allowing active participation of the market from private sectors, rather than previous government-centered ways of solving environmental problems.
   However, the problem is that these countries have a little experience in solving environmental problems or climate change problems by using market mechanisms. As a result, investments in the environmental industry include public-private cooperation, encouraging participation of foreign companies, and various environmental investment incentive programs will increase. In addition, the use of green bonds, the use of green climate funds, the emergence of various environmental products in the market, and the development of supply and consumption systems will become important markets in near future.
   Thirdly, the hallmarks of entering the Brazilian and Mexican markets are large companies. In addition to the entry of manufacturing products in the scale of automobiles, electronics, and telecommunications, the joint entry of SMEs with environmental technology in Korea should be carried out jointly. For example, It is necessary for SMEs to joint entry with large Korean companies related with environmental technologies, such as air monitoring, desalination, wastewater treatment, energy efficiency, smart cities and transportation systems, etc in the field of national infrastructure projects with current Brazilian Bousonaru government.
   Fourthly, waste energization has the advantage for mitigating environmental problems caused by waste by itself. In addition, waste is generated continuously in the urban city and making it more economical in terms of supply than other energy sources. To stop waste growth and the reducing environmental problems, Brazil and Mexico are currently planning to expand waste energy facilities in more than a certain city. Korea has considerable technology for waste energization and overcome a few disadvantages: it is necessary to secure funding stability and establish a channel between the government and the government. It is also necessary to seek financial support from multilateral development banks and international organizations.
   Finally, as smart cities are recognized as an effective response to climate change and urban problems, smart cities are expected to expand significantly in Brazil and Mexico. Korea has experience in urban development and excellent ICT technology, and has accumulated new city development knowledge such as U-City (Ubiquitous City) know-how. In addition, ICT infrastructure such as high-speed information communication network and operation of city integrated operation center is world-class level and environmental technologies such as transportation and water management are excellent. However, actual overseas business are some times limited due to the lacks of support for overseas projects. In order to approach smart city-related projects in Brazil and Mexico, thus it is necessary to reinforce the competitiveness of ordering by supplementing the financial system related to the smart city in Korea, based on providing order information by country and integrating solutions firstly.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구배경과 목적
2. 선행연구의 검토
3. 연구범위와 구성

제2장 EU의 특혜관세제도 현황
1. EU의 일반특혜관세제도(GSP) 도입 현황
2. EU와 아프리카 국가 간 경제동반자협정(EPA) 현황
3. EU-아프리카 교역 현황과 특혜관세제도 수혜 현황
4. 권역별 EPA 협정 구조 및 조문 비교

제3장 EU와 미국의 대아프리카 특혜관세제도 비교
1. 제도의 배경과 현황
2. 교역효과 비교 분석

제4장 결론: 한국의 對아프리카 특혜관세제도 도입에 대한 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   The European Union (EU) practices various types of preferential trade schemes to promote the economic growth of developing countries through trade. The EU classifies developing countries into three groups by their income level, economic and social status and applies the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), which is a non-reciprocal preferential trade scheme to reduce or exempt tariffs on goods exported to the EU or remove quotas. The EU also signs Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with developing countries in the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) regions, which have long historical relationships with Europe, to open European markets to partner countries and support their trade capacity building. Major advanced economies, including the EU, implement a wide range of preferential trade schemes targeting Africa, which has the positive effect of strengthening Africa's trade capacity, supplying cheaper goods to their consumers, and supporting their entrepreneurs' investment in Africa.
   In the midst of the recent changes we are seeing in the African trade environment, trade policies like preferential tariff schemes can be used in Korea’s long-term trade strategy with Africa. On May 30, 2019, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), entered into force with a range of coverage extending across the entire African continent, and starting from July 2020 most tariffs on goods trade within the African market with a 1.2 billion population will be eliminated. Reacting to these changes, emerging countries such as Russia, China, India, and Turkey, as well as advanced countries implementing preferential trade schemes such as the GSP, are rapidly expanding their trade and investment in Africa. As a result of the changes in the trade environment surrounding Africa, major countries in the world are evaluating and adjusting their Africa strategy, while Korea still lacks any economic cooperation strategies or policies in Africa except for development cooperation policies. Korea’s bilateral trade-promoting policies widely used so far, such as free trade agreements (FTA), may not be appropriate for the circumstances in Africa, where regional economic communities are formed in each part of the continent, and import regulations are widespread for the economic development of African countries. Thus, Korea needs a long-term trade strategy with Africa that can enhance Korea’s interests in a manner that also suits the circumstances and demands of the continent.
   In this context, this study aims to investigate the current state of preferential trade schemes of the EU to establish Korea's trade strategy for Africa. While the United States has implemented the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as its preferential tariff scheme for African countries, the EU sets up different economic cooperation strategies by grouping African countries and regions according to their economic development and income level. In particular, the EU’s EPA policy to asymmetrically and gradually open markets of middle-income countries in Africa might be a good model policy for Korea.
   Chapter 2 examines the EU’s non-reciprocal and bilateral preferential tariff schemes and agreements and its trade relations with African countries. The EU divides developing countries into three groups and applies different preferential tariffs. The standard GSP reduces tariffs for exports of about 66% of products from developing countries to the EU market. Among countries eligible for standard GSP, the ones that meet the vulnerability and sustainable development standards can apply for GSP+, the framework that fully exempts tariffs for GSP-applicable products. Furthermore, least developed countries can enjoy full access to EU market for all of their export products except armament, according to the Everything But Arms (EBA) policy.
   The EU is also promoting EPAs as bilateral trade agreements with regional economic communities in the ACP region, including Africa. The EU already has implemented EPAs with some countries in Southern Africa (SADC), West Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa, and Central African regions, and has concluded EPA negotiations with East Africa. Under the EPA, the EU market is open immediately for most items to partner countries, while the markets of the partner countries in Africa will open later gradually and partially, as an asymmetric market opening principle. In particular, high-income countries, which are ineligible for EBA privileges, can also benefit from trade privileges under these EPAs for their EU exports. For instance, South Africa enjoys significant tariff reductions on its agricultural and fishery exports through the EU-SADC EPA. In addition to trade, EPAs strengthen and monitor the economic policy capacity of African countries, in terms of labor, environment, investment, and competition policies, to create a business environment where European entrepreneurs prefer investing in. Several EPA signing African countries, including Cote d’Ivoire, are actively attracting investment from EU entrepreneurs through EPAs. However, some African countries, including Nigeria, are postponing their ratification of the EPA, with the result that it is only in force on a provisional basis within the countries that have ratified it. All EPAs that the EU has entered into or negotiated with African countries include development cooperation and economic development in Africa. However, most of Africa’s exports to the EU are still raw materials such as petroleum and agricultural products. Aid for Trade (AfT) and efforts to attract the investment of EU companies in Africa still remain important agendas.
   Chapter 3 compares and analyzes the US and the EU preferential tariff schemes implemented for Africa. Both have a common framework based on their GSP and require compliance with international norms such as labor rights and human rights. In addition to the application of preferential tariffs, both implement special programs to strengthen trade capacities and technical support for African countries. However, while the AGOA strictly enforces standards concerning US national interests , such as protection of US investment in Africa and the export environment supporting American firms, EU’s policies apply flexible standards for more comprehensive terms. Whereas the AGOA is provided for in the form of US domestic law in a scheme where the US government decides on target countries, EU policies determine beneficiary countries according to international standards, with the exception of the GSP+.
   There are significant differences between preferential tariff schemes of the US and the EU in terms of trade effects. An empirical study using imports data of the EU and the US from Sub-Saharan Africa, from the period of 2000 to 2015, indicates that the US AGOA had an estimated trade effect of approximately 31.0% on apparel products, while the estimated effect on non-apparel products was only about 2.4%. The trade effect of all the EU preferential tariff schemes including GSP and EPA was estimated at about 13.8%. Similar to the previous studies, the trade effect of AGOA is concentrated on apparel items. Since the share of non-apparel items is larger in terms of the number of items and the volume of trade, the trade effect of the EU policies is higher when comparing the trade effect of the US and EU preferential tariff schemes for Africa.
   Chapter 4 summarizes the results of the entire study and produces policy recommendations, including the possibility of Korea's preferential tariff schemes for Africa and how to utilize them. Korea has pursued several bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) since the late 1990s. More recently, Korea’s New Southern Policy and New Northern Policy also incorporate FTAs and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with regional partner countries. Korea explored FTAs with South Africa and Egypt in the past, but failed to realize any significant progress. Considering Korea is neither geographically close to Africa nor has a large market like the EU, using the non-reciprocal preferential tariff scheme as the only strategy for increasing trade with Africa would merely have limited effects. Furthermore, even if Korea introduces non-reciprocal preferential tariff policies such as the GSP, upper-middle income countries in Africa, who have the most potential for economic cooperation with Korea, are less likely to obtain beneficiary status under such a scheme.
   For this reason, it is necessary to consider a new and alternative trade agreement framework that fully reflects the needs of Korea as well as partner countries and regions, partner countries’ income and other important characteristics of bilateral economic cooperation. In this respect, the EU's strategy of promoting EPAs with major reExecutive gional economic communities and differentiating GSPs by income level of beneficiary countries can be considered as a good model for Korea. Given that the demand for local investment and technology transfer to Africa is as significant as the need to expand bilateral trade with African countries, alternative bilateral trade agreements similar to an EPA should be developed to meet the needs and environments of different African countries and regional communities. In order to expand trade and investment between Korea and Africa, it is necessary to strengthen the trade capacity of Africa and increase access to both markets. This is also the objective of Aid for Trade, which has recently been highlighted in the area of development cooperation. Korea continues to increase its amount of aid for trade every year, but the sector remains separated from the trade strategy of Korea. It will be essential for Korea to establish a Korea-African economic cooperation strategy and implementation system that can operate beyond trade policies and development cooperation policies if Korea is to systematize aid for trade and expand trade and investment between Korea and Africa.
   Finally, we could consider integrating the various high-level Korea-African policy forums currently hosted by different Korean ministries and upgrading these to the highest level. Not only the US and the EU but also China and Japan, operate regular top-level forums with African countries to expand economic cooperation with Africa. The theme of the forums has also changed from development cooperation agenda to trade and investment agenda. In line with the emerging trend of regional centrality led by the African Union (AU), Korea’s trade agenda should place more emphasis on strengthening its consultative bodies with the AU to overcome the limitations of economic cooperation with fragmented regional economic communities. Holding these Korea-AU councils on a regular basis and expanding them appear to be a promising direction when considering recent changes in the trade environment in Africa.