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Conference Proceedings

Publications

  • Momentum for Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities

       The risks of political tensions and military confrontation and war in the Northeast Asian region, triggered by North Korea in particular, has been a critical gap in an otherwise productive network of dynamic regional ..

    Edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Hyung-Gon Jeong Date 2018.12.28

    Economic development , Economic cooperation

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    Content

    Preface


    Contributors


    Introduction and Overview
         Lee-Jay Cho


    Statements by Country Representatives and Keynote Address

      Country Representative Statement: South Korea
         Kwan-Young Park

      Country Representative Statement: China
         Wang Shuzu

      Country Representative Statement: United States
         George Ariyoshi

      Country Representative Statement: Russia
         Pavel Minakir

      Country Representative Statement: Mongolia
         Ganbold Baasanjav

      Keynote Address
         Nikai Toshihiro


    Part I. Building a Northeast Asia Economic Community and Its Extended Regions

      Promoting International Cooperation in Industrial Finance, Propelling High-quality Development of an Asian Economy
         Zhao Xianfeng

      Northeast Asia Economic Community Formation and the Role of the Russian Far East
         Sergei Sevastianov


    Part II. Cross-border Infrastructure and Special Economic Zones in Northeast Asia

      Cross-border Infrastructure and Special Economic Zones in Northeast Asia: Politically Holding Hands and Economically Going Underground
         Anthony Michell

      Logistic Connectivity for Northeast Asia
         Inoue Satoshi

      Cross-border Infrastructure in Northeast Asia: Transport and Energy
         Sangmin Nam


    Part III. Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia

      Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Current Trends and Opportunities
         Maeda Tadashi

      A Review of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
         Stanley Katz

      Establishment of the NEADB to Support North Korea’s Economic Development
         Jai-Min Lee


    Part IV. Energy and Environment in Northeast Asia

      Trends in Energy Transformation and Policy
         Iinuma Yoshiki

      Perspective from the United States: Update on US Energy Policy and Technology
         Terry Surles

      Perspective from Korea: New Paradigm for Korean Energy Transition and Policy
         Haksik Yoo

      Perspective from Japan: Energy Trends and Policy and Northeast Asia Cooperation
         Tanabe Yasuo


    Part V. Tourism Cooperation in Northeast Asia

      Border Tourism in Northeast Asia
         Iwashita Akihiro

      Increasing Tourism through Integrated Resorts—Tourism and Gaming in Northeast Asia
         S. Ray Cho and Brendan Bussmann

      Current Status and Challenges of Japan’s Inbound Tourism Boom: Evidence from Japan’s City-level Data
         Konishi Yoko

      Latest Market Trends: Visitors to Japan
         Tsuboi Yasukiro


    Part VI. Panel Discussion on Natural Disaster and Regional Cooperation

      Summary of Panel Discussion on Natural Disaster and Regional Cooperation


    Part VII. The Honolulu Ad Hoc Group Meeting on Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Proposal for the Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development (NEABCD) Revisited

      Review of Current Situation and Recent Developments in Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Relevant to Financial Cooperation Opening Remarks
         Kwan Yong Park

      Recent Developments and NEABCD
         Stanley Katz

      Perspective from Japan
         Maeda Tadashi

      Perspective from Korea
         Jae Hyung Hong

      Perspective from China
         Liu Ming and Zhang Jianping

      Perspective from the United States
         Mead Treadwell

      Commentary
         Inessa Love


    Role and Justification: Why Is the NEABCD Necessary to Meet NEA Financing and Technical Assistance Needs?

      Overview 
         Lee-Jay Cho and Stanley Katz

      A Review of the Ad Hoc Committee on the NEABCD and the Brief on the Establishment of the NEABCD
         Liu Ming

      Recommendations of the Study on the Establishment of the Northeast Asian Development Bank: The Tokyo Foundation Draft
         Chiba Yasuhiro

      Update on Northeast China and Efforts Toward an NEABCD
         Liu Lanbiao


      Strategies, Future Plans, and Activities Establishment of the NEADB to Support North Korea’s Economic Development
         Jai-Min Lee

      Promoting the Northeast Asia Development Bank
         Zou Lixing

      Promoting Financial Cooperation  in Northeast Asia
         Li Zheguang

      The NEADB: Securing the Attention of the United States
         Mead Treadwell

      The NEADB: Considerations and Recommendations for Energy
         Terry Surles


    Appendices 

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    Summary

       The risks of political tensions and military confrontation and war in the Northeast Asian region, triggered by North Korea in particular, has been a critical gap in an otherwise productive network of dynamic regional economic growth. However, this year, the milestone summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Eun has resulted in a dramatic change on the Korean Peninsular, prompting greater need for the region to strengthen ties and find mutually beneficial ways to handle tasks ahead.
       Toward this end, the KIEP–NEAEF collaborative project seeks to fulfill the need for timely and forward-looking research and meeting activities by focusing on critical issues, such as 1) discussion and emphasis on connectivity in cross border infrastructure developments involving North Korea as an integral part of a broader regional economic community in Northeast Asia, and 2) revisiting the design and establishment of a Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development (NEABCD) in the context of economic cooperation and integration in the Korean Peninsula.
       This volume in the series of proceedings volumes is titled “Momentum for Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities” and comprises summaries of research presentations and discussions at the planning meeting in Honolulu, at the 27th Annual Conference of the Northeast Asia Economic Forum in Sendai, Japan, and at the Honolulu Ad Hoc Group Meeting on Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia in 2018. The results of this project represent activities that have been contributing to economic dialogues, interactions, and research on common issues for cross-border future economic cooperation in the region, which involves North Korea.
       KIEP is grateful to Dr. Lee-Jay Cho, Chairman of NEAEF, for his leadership in implementing the project, and to the authors of the presentations, conference participants and discussants who contributed to this volume.
       Drs. Lee-Jay Cho and Hyung-Gon Jeong would like to extend their appreciation to the NEAEF staff for their assistance in the course of the successful implementation of this project, and to Drs. Karla Fallon and Kennon Breazeale for their editorial review and editing of this volume. 

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  • Sustaining the Momentum for Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community

      This year witnessed political tensions resulting from a series of provocative nuclear and missiles tests in North Korea and from domestic political unrest, culminating in the abrupt leadership change in the Republic of Kore..

    Edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Hyung-Gon Jeong Date 2017.12.27

    Economic development , Economic integration

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    Content

    Preface


    Contributors


    Introduction and Overview
    Lee-Jay Cho


    Statements by Country Representatives


    Part I. China’s Economic Development and Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation in the Context of the Road and Belt Initiative


    Part II. Future Tourism Cooperation in Northeast Asia


    Part III: Cross-border Infrastructure and Special Economic Zones in Northeast Asia


    Part IV: Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community and Its Extended Regions


    Part V: Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia


    Part VI: Energy and Environment in Northeast Asia


    Appendix: Hong Kong Statement and Agenda 

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    Summary

      This year witnessed political tensions resulting from a series of provocative nuclear and missiles tests in North Korea and from domestic political unrest, culminating in the abrupt leadership change in the Republic of Korea. All these events pose enormous challenges for minimizing the risks of military confrontation and war in the Northeast Asian region. A significant dampening factor on these possibilities is the real progress made in recent decades in economic cooperation and integration within the region, which contributes to reducing military action in the Korean Peninsula. North Korea, however, still remains the critical gap in an otherwise productive network of dynamic regional economic growth.
      For Northeast Asia, there is a continuing and growing need for promoting peaceful economic interactions and research on a common basis for cross border economic cooperation for the future common good, as a means of ameliorating political tensions and frictions in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. Toward this end, the KIEP–NEAEF collaborative project seeks to fulfill the need for timely and forward-looking research activities by focusing on some of the critical components, such as strengthening economic cooperation with China and exploring future scenarios of North Korea as an integral part of broader regional economic cooperation in the region. This collaborative work on Northeast Asia remains essential in carrying out activities aimed at building a future Northeast Asian economic community on the basis of the strong network the NEAEF has built over the years for functional economic cooperation, through discussions and consultations among stakeholder country experts on issues such as cross border infrastructure development and financial cooperation.
      This volume in the series of proceedings volumes is titled Sustaining the Momentum for Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community and comprises summaries of research presentations and discussions on building a Northeast Asian economic community presented at the planning meeting in Honolulu and at the Annual Conference of the Northeast Asia Economic Forum in Hong Kong, China, in 2017. The results of this project represent activities that have been contributing to efforts toward regional economic cooperation and have been carried out in a spirit of cooperation.
      KIEP is grateful to Dr. Lee-Jay Cho, Chairman of NEAEF, for his leadership in implementing the project, and to the authors of the presentations, conference participants and discussants who contributed to this volume.
      Drs. Lee-Jay Cho and Hyung-Gon Jeong would like to extend their appreciation to the NEAEF staff for their assistance in the course of the successful implementation of this project, and to Drs. Karla Fallon and Kennon Breazeale for their editorial review and editing of this volume. 

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  • Consensus Toward a Northeast Asian Economic Community

    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. T..

    Edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Chang Jae Lee Date 2016.12.30

    Economic integration , Economic cooperation

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    Content

    Preface


    Contributors


    Introduction and Overview
    Cho Lee-Jay and Lee Chang Jae


    Statements by Hosts and Country Representatives

     

    Part I. Jilin Province’s Economic Development and Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative


    Part II. Cross-Border Infrastructure and Special Economic Zones in Northeast Asia


    Part III. Future Tourism Cooperation in Northeast Asia


    Part IV. Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community


    Part V. Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia


    Part VI. Energy and Environment in Northeast Asia


    Appendix 

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    Summary

    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. The Forum is also committed to promoting understanding and relations among the peoples of Northeast Asia, North America, and Europe.
     NEAEF’s main objective is to conduct research and conference activities aimed at functional economic cooperation such as cross-border energy, transportation and logistics infrastructure development, and capital mobilization. The Forum holds annual conferences, workshops, and seminars for planning, facilitating, coordinating, and implementing international and interdisciplinary solutions to common policy problems. It is the only nongovernmental regional organization in which all the nations of Northeast Asia and the US are consistent and active participants.
     For the year 2016, NEAEF in collaboration with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), carried out activities aimed at building a Northeast Asian economic community. NEAEF has established the basis of a strong network for functional cooperation, for example, regular discussions among stakeholders on financing cross border infrastructure development. For the year 2016, the goal was to take more concrete steps toward a Northeast Asian economic community including efforts to increase dialogue with North Korea, with a view to future functional cooperation. NEAEF has continued to maintain a cooperative networking approach and exchanges with North Korea regarding the Tumen River Area and North Korean special economic zones.
     This year’s volume titled, Consensus Toward a Northeast Asian Economic Community presents the results of a project implemented in 2016 that includes the planning meeting discussions as well as the presentations and summaries of the 2016 NEAEF Annual Conference in Changchun, China.
     

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  • 2015 Trans-Pacific Intellectual Dialogue

    The conference was held on Dec 14-15, 2015 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. Participants from China, Japan, Korea and the United States discussed ..

    Edited by Chul Chung et al. Date 2016.12.30

    Economic relations , Economic cooperation

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    Content

    Contributors


    Introduction and Overview

    Mark Thoma


    Session 1 Trade


    China’s Emerging Trade Strategy: Drivers, Influence and Implications for North Pacific Economic Cooperation

    Yong Wang


    1. Key Drivers of Change in China’s Trade Policy
    2. China’s Emerging Trade Policy
    3. Why will China Embrace Higher Standard FTAs?
    4. Integrate the Belt and Road Initiative and AIIB into China’s Trade Policy
    5. Implications for the Global Trade Order and North Pacific Economic Cooperation
    References


    China’s Belt-Road Initiative and Korea’s Eurasia Initiative

    Inkyo Cheong


    1. Introduction on Korea’s Eurasia Initiative
    2. China’s Belt-Road Initiative
    3. Korea’s Nordpolitik and Recent Performance of its Eurasia Initiative
    4. Conclusion and Policy Implications


    The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement High Diplomacy and Low (Domestic) Politics

    Claude Barfield


    1. Broad Themes and Analytic Frameworks
    2. Security/Diplomatic Rationale of Trade Policy
    3. The Low Domestic Politics of Trade: Who Wins and Who Loses
    4. The Political Problem Areas
    5. Concluding Observations


    Trade

    Comments by Taeho Bark


    Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation
    Comments by Theresa Greaney

     

    Session 2 Macroeconomic Perspectives


    Global Economic Problems and Emerging Market Economies’ Macroeconomic Policies

    Inchul Kim


    1. Introduction 102
    2. Global Economic Environment 103
    3. Analysis of Global Economic Problems 104
    4. Macroeconomic Policies for EMEs 109
    5. Conclusion 113


    References 114
    Economic Conditions in the US and the Uncertain Prospects for Future Economic Growth

    Mark Thoma


    1. Introduction
    2. The Current State of the US Economy
    3. Forecast for GDP
    4. Risks to Growth
    5. Conclusion


    References


    China’s New Economic Norms

    Yijiang Wang


    1. Introduction
    2. The Slowdown
    3. Features of the New Economy
    4. Concluding Remarks


    The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Struggle for the East Asian International Order

    Ming Wan


    1. Introduction
    2. The AIIB as an International Financial Institution
    3. The AIIB and International Order
    4. The AIIB and China
    5. Recommendation


    Macroeconomic Perspectives for Developed and Emerging Economies

    Comments by Michael J. Roberts


    1. Introduction
    2. Emerging Economies
    3. China 200
    4. The United States


    Macroeconomic Perspectives

    Comments by Yoon Je Cho


    1. Secular Stagnation
    2. China’s Economic Slowdown
    3. The Inclusion of RMB in the SDR Basket

    Session 3 Finance


    Strategies for Currency Convertibility: Korea’s Perspectives

    Jang Yung Lee


    1. Definition and Accepted Wisdom
    2. Benefits and Costs of Convertibility
    3. Strategies for Currency Convertibility
    4. Countries’ Experiences of Convertibility
    5. Conclusion and Policy Suggestions
    References


    Unconventional Monetary Policy, Spillovers, and Liftoff: Implications for Northeast Asia

    Marcus Noland


    1. Introduction
    2. How We Got Here
    3. Spillovers
    4. Liftoff
    5. Conclusions
    References


    Exploration of the Prospect of Cooperation between Belt and Road Initiative and TPP in Global Economic Governance

    Xiaotong Shan


    1. Development Philosophy and Cooperation Approach of Belt and Road Initiative
    2. BRI’s Implications for the Global Economy
    3. Comparison of Similarities and Differences between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
    4. Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP for Global Economic Integration
    5. Mutual Learning between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
    6. A Preliminary Study on Cooperation between the Belt and Road Initiative and TPP
    7. Conclusion
    References


    Finance Issues

    Comments by Baybars Karacaovali


    Session 4 Major Findings and Policy Implications


    Monetary Policy Response in Emerging Economies and North Pacific Cooperation

    Il Houng Lee


    1. Introduction
    2. Capital Flows and Impact on Emerging Markets
    3. Not Always an Efficient Allocation of Capital Across Borders
    4. Synchronization of Interest Rates
    5. Unsynchronized Business Cycles
    6. Overcoming the Limitations of Monetary Policy
    7. Capital Flow Measures
    8. Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation


    Major Findings and Policy Implications

    Comments by Taeho Bark


    Conference Program
    Program
    Participants 

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    Summary

    The conference was held on Dec 14-15, 2015 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. Participants from China, Japan, Korea and the United States discussed the economic future of the major North Pacific countries and the importance of economic cooperation among them. Major topics in each session were (1) Trade (2) Macroeconomic Perspectives and (3) Finance. The first topic, "Trade",  related to the China'a trade strategy, China's  Belt-Road Initiative, Korea's Eurasia Initiative, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). The second topic, "Macroeconomic Perspectives", aimed to tackle global or regional economic problems through the understanding of the macreconomic  policies of the emerging market economies, uncertainty in the economic conditions of the United States, China's New Economic Norms, and the struggle of the East Asian International Order. The third topic, "Finance", aimed to provide an analytical perspective over currency convertibility, unconventional monetary policies, and prospect of cooperation between Belt-Road Initiative and TPP in the global economic governance. The conference concluded with the major  findings and policy implications from the earlier sessions, particularily, monetary policy response in emerging economies and the importance of strengthing the North Pacific cooperation were discussed.
     

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  • Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community

    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. T..

    Edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Chang Jae Lee Date 2015.12.30

    Economic development , Economic integration

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    Content

    Preface


    Contributors


    Introduction and Overview

    Part 1. Regional Integration in Northeast Asia: Status and Potential

    A Northeast Asian Economic Community: A Korean Perspective
    Chang Jae Lee

    Introduction
    Recent Trade Situations of China, Japan, and Korea
    China-Japan-Korea FTA (CJK FTA)
    Conclusion
    References

    A Northeast Asian Economic Community: A Chinese Perspective
    Fu Jingyun

    Evolution of China’s FTA and Regional Economic Integration Policies
    Overview of China’s FTA Network
    Characteristics of China’s FTA Policies
    Prospects of China’s FTA Policies and Their Implications for the Region

    A Northeast Asian Economic Community: A Japanese Perspective
    Yasuo Tanabe

    A Northeast Asian Economic Community
    An Asian Energy Partnership
    Japan-China Energy Conservation Forum
    Conclusion

    A Northeast Asian Economic Community: A Russian Perspective
    Sergei Sevastianov

    Introduction
    Past and Present Russian Regional Policy in the Far East
    Development of Energy and Transport Infrastructure in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East
    Russian View and Possible Role in NEA Integration
    Subnational Models of Economic Cooperation in NEA
    Conclusions and Recommendations:

    Toward a Northeast Asia Economic Community: Lessons from the European Union (EU), Good and Bad
    Glyn Ford

    EU lessons for Northeast Asia

    Potential for Connectivity in Northeast Asia: Energy and Transport Infrastructure in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East
    Dmitry Reutov

    Energy Projects
    Transportation Infrastructure
    Conclusion


    Part 2. Renewable Energy in Northeast Asia and Prospects for the Region


    China Renewable Energy Development and Future Prospects for Cooperation
    Shi Dinghuan

    History and Mission of the China Renewable Energy Society
    Renewable Energy in China
    Prospects for Northeast Asia Cooperation

    Status of Renewable Energy Development―Toward a Low Carbon Society
    Yoshiki Iinuma

    Hawaii’s Clean Energy Transformation
    Mark Glick

    Introduction
    Renewable Energy and Energy Savings
    Tackling Transportation
    Reducing Energy Demand
    Hawaii: A Clean Energy Test Bed


    Part 3. Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia

    Financing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB):
    Issues for Further Discussion
    S. Stanley Katz

    Development Bank Objectives
    AIIB Financial Arrangements and Parameters

    Creating a Multilateral Development Fund for Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia
    Jai-Min Lee

    Recent Developments Impacting the Northeast Asian Development Bank Proposal
    Creation of NEA Fund
    Role of the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI)
    Conclusion

    Establishing a Northeast Asian New Financial Institution to Promote Regional Economic Cooperation and Development
    Zou Lixing

    Strategic Value of and Market Demand for a Northeast Asian New Financial Institution
    The Relationship between a New Northeast Asian Financial Institution and
    the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
    Basis and Path to establish a New Northeast Asian Financial Institution

    Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Japan’s Perspective
    Hideo Naito

    The Potential of Northeast Asia
    Recent Trends in Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia
    Partnership for Quality Infrastructure
    Japan and NEA Potential
    Public Private Partnership (PPP) Readiness in Asia-Pacific

    The Belt and Road Initiative: Ambition and Reality of China’s “Go Global” Strategy
    Liu Ming

    Background of the Belt and Road Initiative
    Belt and Road Initiative: Challenges
    Conclusion


    Appendix
     

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    Summary

    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. The Forum is also committed to promoting understanding and relations among the peoples of Northeast Asia, North America, and Europe.
     The main objective is for NEAEF to conduct research and conference activities aimed at functional economic cooperation such as cross-border energy, transportation and logistics infrastructure development, and capital mobilization. The Forum holds annual conferences, workshops, and seminars for planning, facilitating, coordinating, and implementing international and interdisciplinary solutions to common policy problems. It is the only nongovernmental regional organization in which all the nations of Northeast Asia and the US are consistent and active participants.
     In collaboration with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), in 2015 NEAEF carried out activities on building a Northeast Asian Economic Community based on lessons learned from NEAEF’s previous work on financing cross-border functional economic cooperation. For the first year of this collaborative project the focus was on regional cooperation and strategies in Northeast oriented toward North Korea―this work focused on functional economic cooperation in cross-border resources, energy supplies, infrastructure construction, capital mobilization, and institutional development.
     This volume is the first part in a series of proceedings titled Building a Northeast Asian Economic Community. It contains presentations and summaries from the NEAEF Beijing Special Meeting and the related activities that took place under this project. The aim of the project is to contribute to and encourage activities and efforts toward regional economic integration in Northeast Asia. 

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  • Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation

    The conference was held on July 25, 2014 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. The key factors of the conference was to shape the economic future of th..

    Charles E. Morrison and Marcus Noland eds. Date 2015.05.15

    Economic cooperation , North Korean economy

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    Content

    Introduction and Overview 
    Affiliations of the Contributors 
    Keynote Address
    Are Mega Free Trade Agreements the Best Alternative for Advancing Global Trade Liberalization? / Cae-One Kim


    Session 1 Prospects for the Region’s Economies
     
    Assessing Macroeconomic Policies in the US in Response to the Great Recession / David J. Stockton
    Introduction 
    Key Characteristics of the Recession and Recovery 
    The Response of Monetary and Fiscal Policies 
    Prospects for US Macroeconomic Policies and the Implications for the Economy 
    Risks to the US Outlook and the Implications for the North Pacific Economies 
    Conclusions
     
    Challenges and Opportunities in China’s Economy / Wang Yijiang
    Introduction  
    Economic Challenges for China 
    New Opportunities 
    Concluding Remarks 


    Abenomics and Beyond: The Japanese Economy in the 2010s / Tokuo Iwaisako
    Introduction  
    Brief Chronology of Abenomics 
    Japan’s Macroeconomic Performance under Abenomics 
    Potential Dangers for Abenomics 
    Conclusion
     
    Prospects of the Korean Economy / Il Houng Lee and Seongman Moon
    Introduction  
    Searching for Lost Economic Growth in Korea 
    Reasons for the Decline in Domestic Demand Growth 
    Conclusion
     
    Commentary:
    Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Discussion on Session 1 Papers / Sang-Hyop Lee
    Report of the Session Rapporteur:
    Prospects for the Region’s Economies: Overview by Session Rapporteur / Michael G. Plummer


    Session 2 Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region 


    The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a Pathway to Asian Integration / Deborah Elms
    The Goal: Free-Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)  
    Two of Four Pathways in Play 
    The Launch of the TPP 
    Specific Benefits of the TPP: Market Access for Goods 
    Additional TPP Provisions 
    Last-Minute Shaving of Quality? 
    TPP Timelines 
    TPP Institutional Framework 
    Trade and Investment Diversion Coming 
    Circling Back to the FTAAP
     
    The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Design, Status, and Challenges / Zhang Jianping and Nie Wei
    Status of RCEP Negotiations  
    Dilemma of RCEP Negotiations 
    Compared with TPP, Is RCEP More Welcomed by Developing Economies in the Asia‑Pacific Region? 
    Challenges of the RCEP under the Framework of Five “10+1” FTAs 
    General Perceptions or Concerns about FTAs in China 
    Implications of RCEP for FTAAP Proposals 
    Implications of the RCEP for the North Pacific Economies 
    Conclusion
     
    China–Japan–Korea Free Trade Agreement (CJK FTA): Design, Status, and Challenges / Dukgeun Ahn
    State of the Play of the CJK FTA  
    CJK Trade and Economic Assessment Result 
    Mega FTA Competition and CJK FTA 
    Issues for Negotiation 
    Challenges Ahead 


    Commentaries:
    Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Comments / Kiyoun Sohn
    Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Discussion of Papers Presented in Session 2 / Michael G. Plummer
    Report of the Session Rapporteur:
    Pathways toward Trade and Investment Integration in the North Pacific Region: Overview by Session 2 Rapporteur / Theresa M. Greaney


    Session 3 Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea 


    Can North Korea Follow China’s Path of Reform and Open Door Policy? / Zhou Huji
    China’s National Security, the Transformation of Political Concept and Open Door Policy  
    Kim Jong Il’s Political Ideas and Survival Strategy 
    “Songun Politics”: One of the Political Survival Strategies 
    Improved Leader Worship: One of the Political Survival Strategies 
    “7.1 Measures”: Economic Survival Strategies 
    Nuclear Development and Asymmetric Dampening: International Survival Strategy 
    Survival and Emerging from the Crisis: Conclusion and Discussion 


    Economic Developments in North Korea / Marcus Nolan
    Introduction  
    Internal Developments 
    External Relations 
    Illicit Activities 
    Conclusions
     
    The Current Situation and Future Prospects of the North Korean Economy / Dongho Jo
    Introduction  
    The Current Situation 
    The Reaction of the North Korean Leadership 
    The Future Prospects 


    Commentaries:
    Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Hyung-Gon Jeong
    Assessing the Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Discussion on Session 3 Papers / Nicholas Eberstadt
    Report of the Session Rapporteur:
    Assessing Economic and Social Change in North Korea: Overview by Session 3 Rapporteur / Anjali Nath


    Roundtable Discussion on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation 
    North Pacific Integration from an International Financial Perspective / Hiroyuki Ito
    Introduction  
    Interest Rates Linkages and Their Implications on Monetary Policy Management  
    “Internationalization” of the Renminbi 
    Conclusion
     
    Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Tokuo Iwaisako
    Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / Jong Seok Kim
    “The Asian Paradox” 
    The Limits of Bilateral Talks 
    The Need for Multilateral Dialogs 
    Soft Issues 
    Harmony in Diversity 


    Comments Based on the Roundtable Discussion / David J. Stockton
    The Global Influences of Half of the World: Comments on North Pacific Cooperation / Wang Yijiang
    Report of the Session Rapporteur
    Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation: Overview by Roundtable Rapporteur / Duyen Bui


    Conference Program
    Program 
    List of Participants

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    Summary

    The conference was held on July 25, 2014 co-organized by the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) and East-West Center (EWC) in Honolulu. The key factors of the conference was to shape the economic future of the major North Pacific countries and the importance of economic cooperation among them. Major topics to be addressed were (1) the macroeconomic performances and outlooks of China, the United States, Korea, and Japan, and the interrelationship among them, (2) the emerging multilateral economic architecture and its implications, with specific reference to the TPP, the RCEP, and China-Japan-Korea free trade prospects, and (3) the future of the North Korean economy and its implications for North Pacific cooperation. The main sessions of the conference covered ‘Prospects for the region’s economies’, ‘Pathways toward trade and investment integration in the North Pacific region’, ‘Assessing economic and social change in North Korea’.

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  • Financing Economic Integration and Functional Cooperation for Northeast Asia: Toward a Northeast Asian Economic Community

    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. T..

    Edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Chang Jae Lee Date 2014.12.30

    Economic integration , Economic cooperation

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    Content

    Preface
    Contributors
    Introduction and Overview
    Statements by Hosts and Country Representatives


    Part I. Regional Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Country Perspectives
    - A Korean Perspective (Chang Jae Lee) 
    - A Chinese Perspective (Zhang Jianping)
    - A Japanese Perspective (Maeda Tadashi)
    - A Russian Perspective (Pavel Minakir)


    Part II: Energy Cooperation: Energy Infrastructure and Physical Connectivity
    Japan’s Energy Challenges and Potential for Regional Cooperation (Tanabe Yasuo)
    Energy Issues: Security, Alternative Systems, and Low-Carbon Futures (Terry Surles)
    Prospects for a Cross-border Power System in Northeast Asia (Iinuma Yoshiki)
    Energy Cooperation in Northeast Asia: A Russian Perspective (Sergey Sevastianov)


    Part III: Regional Cooperation and Integration
    Regional Cooperation and Integration in East and Northeast Asia (Kilaparti Ramakrishna)
    Cultivating Multilateralism in East Asia (Iwatani Shigeo)
    Regional Integration in Northeast Asia (Wang Weina)


    Part IV: Financing Regional Economic Integration through Cross-border Infrastructure Construction: Review and
    New Approaches to Regional Multilateral Financial Institutions


    Keynote Statement—Fulfilling a Long-held Dream: Financial Policy for a Unified Korea (Shin Je Yoon)
    A Strategy toward a Regional Multilateral Financial Institution (Lee Jai-Min and Kim Yu-Ree)
    Establishing a New Development Financing Institution: Comments and Observations (S. Stanley Katz)
    Northeast Asian Financial Cooperation in a New Era (Fan Xiaoyun)
    Comments on Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia (Zou Ping)


    Part V: Cross-border Economic Cooperation: Tumen River Area Economic Integration for the Korean Peninsula


    Political and Economic Imperatives behind North Korea’s Evolving Special Economic Zones (Glyn Ford)
    Underdeveloped Sino-Russian Cross-border Cooperation (Natalia Ryzhova)
    Creating a Northeast Asian Economy (Tony Michell)


    Appendix I. Seoul Declaration and Agenda
    Appendix II. Planning Meeting Summary and Agenda
    Appendix III. Report of Field Visit to Rason Special Economic Zone, DPRK and Yanbian, China

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    Summary
    The Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) is a regional nongovernmental organization created in 1991 to sponsor and facilitate research, networking, and dialogue relevant to the economic and social development of Northeast Asia. The Forum is also committed to promoting understanding and relations among the peoples of Northeast Asia, North America, and Europe.
    The main objective is for NEAEF to conduct research and conference activities aimed at functional economic cooperation such as cross-border energy, transportation and logistics infrastructure development, and capital mobilization. The Forum holds annual conferences, workshops, and seminars for planning, facilitating, coordinating, and implementing international and interdisciplinary solutions to common policy problems. It is the only nongovernmental regional organization in which all the nations of Northeast Asia and the US are consistent and active participants.
    For the year 2014, NEAEF in collaboration with the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), cooperated in efforts toward achieving closer economic and financial cooperation in Northeast Asia, and continued its focus on research, the annual conference, and meetings aimed at financing regional economic integration and establishment of the Northeast Asian Bank for Cooperation and Development (NEABCD). This work aims to promote functional economic cooperation in terms of cross-border resources, energy supplies, infrastructure construction, capital mobilization, and institutional development.
    NEAEF, as planned for the year 2014, facilitated conference and meeting activities in which experts presented their perspectives, views, ideas, concrete proposals, and strategies relevant to the issues of a regional institution for financial cooperation.
    This volume, which is the final part of a series of proceedings titled Financing Regional Economic Integration and Functional Cooperation for Northeast Asia: Toward a Northeast Asia Economic Community, presents the results of a project implemented in 2014 that includes presentations and summaries from the 23rd annual NEAEF conference and meetings, as well as related activities.
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  • Date 2014.10.17

    Economic cooperation , Industrial policy

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  • Date 2014.06.16

    Economic cooperation , Overseas Direct Investment

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  • Financing Economic Integration and Functional Cooperation for Northeast Asia: A Multilateral Financial Institution

    SummaryThe Seventh Meeting of the Ad Hoc Committee for Establishing the Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and DevelopmentNankai University, Tianjin, ChinaJuly 1-2, 2013On July 1-2, 2013, the Seventh Meeting of the Ad Hoc Committ..

    Lee-Jay Cho and Chang Jae Lee ed. Date 2014.06.10

    Economic integration , Economic cooperation

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    Content
    Preface
    Contributors
    Introduction and Overview

    Part 1. Investment Requirements and Strategies for Cooperation in Infrastructure and Energy Development in Northeast Asia

    The Socio-Economic Situation in the Russian Far East and Prospects for Developing
    Investment Cooperation with Northeast Asian Countries
    A. B. Levintal

    Cross-Border Economic Cooperation: Notes on Creating a Northeast Asian Economy
    Tony Michell
    1. Economic Cooperation in the Region
    2. Chinese Investments in the Far East and Siberia
    3. Agricultural Development
    4. Multilateral Funding and Day to Day Banking
    5. Why Land Transit Is Important
    6. Road Connections
    7. Cross-border Cooperation, Hubs, and Clusters
    8. Multilateralizing Kaesong Industrial Estate
    9. Dandong-The Last Frontier
    10. The Disruption of Sanctions on Third Parties–The Need for A Study
    11. The Disruption of Sanctions and the Need for a Fairer Sanctions Regime Development in the Future
    12. Sanction Exempt Cross-Border Economic Cooperation
    13. Conclusion: A Cross-Border Economic Cooperation Wish List for 2014

    Challenges to a Northeast Asia Regional Logistics System Satoshi Inoue Port Cooperation in the Northeast Asia
    Dong-Keun Ryoo
    1. Introduction
    2. Concept of Port Cooperation
    3. Cases of Port Cooperation
    4. Conclusion

    Japan’s Sustainable Electric Future
    Yoshiki Iinuma

    A Note on Power Grid Interconnection in Northeast Asia
    Mitsuho Uchida

    Russia and Northeast Asia Energy Security
    Sergei Sevastyanov
    1. Key Findings
    2. Introduction
    3. The Main Principles of Russia’s New Energy Policy
    4. Energy Security and Energy Market in Northeast Asia
    5. Russia’s Activities and Vision for Energy Policy in Northeast Asia
    6. Evaluation of Russia’s Input into Northeast Asia Energy Security
    7. Recommendations and Conclusions

    The Yellow River and Cooperation in Northeast Asia
    Liu Ming

    Part 2. Financing Economic Integration and a Regional Multilateral Bank: Research Papers on the Northeast Asian Bank for Cooperation and Development (NEABCD)

    Creation of a Joint-Venture Bank by China, Japan, and Korea
    Jai-Min Lee
    1. Introduction
    2. Challenges for development finance in Northeast Asia
    3. Creation of a Joint-Venture Bank by China, Japan and Korea
    4. Conclusion

    Economic Development of the Russian Far East and the Northeast Asian Development Bank (NEADB)
    Dmitry A. Izotov
    1. Introduction
    2. Economic Development Prospects of the Russian Far East and Foreign Economic Activity Alternatives
    3. Development Programs of the Russian Far East and the Northeast Asian Development Bank (NEADB)
    4. Conclusion

    Re-analysis of Innovation in Asian Infrastructure Financing Mechanisms
    Liqun Jin
    1. Demand for Innovation in Asian Infrastructure Financing Mechanisms
    2. Feasibility of Innovation in Asian Infrastructure Investment

    Review and Strategy for the Proposed Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development
    Byungwon Bahk

    A Perspective from the Republic of Korea
    Jae Hyong Hong

    Appendix
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    Summary

    Summary

    The Seventh Meeting of the Ad Hoc Committee for Establishing the Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development
    Nankai University, Tianjin, China
    July 1-2, 2013

    On July 1-2, 2013, the Seventh Meeting of the Ad Hoc Committee for Establishing Northeast Asia Bank for the Cooperation and Development (NEABCD) organized by Northeast Asia Economic Forum (NEAEF) was held at Northeast Asia Financial Cooperation Research Center (hereinafter refer to as the Research Center), at Nankai University, Tianjin, China. More than twenty leaders and experts from China, Korea, Japan, and the US attended this meeting. Prior to the meeting, Dr. Jiang Zhenghua, Former Vice Chairman of National People’'s Congress of China and Honorary Chairman of the Research Center, and Mr. Cui Jindu, Executive Vice Mayor of Tianjin Municipal Government and Honorary Chairman of the Research Center met Dr. Lee Jay-Cho, NEAEF and Research Center Chairman and all the foreign participants. The President of Nankai University, Dr. Gong Ke, attended this meeting as well. The meeting was organized by Dr. Lee Jay-Cho and Mr. Wang Shuzu, Former Deputy Chairman of Tianjin People’'s Congress and Deputy Chairman of the Research Center. Mr. Zhang Xiaoyan, Deputy Secretary of Tianjin Municipality and Director of the Research Center, Mr. Zou Ping, the Research Center Secretary General, Prof.
    Ma Junlu, Executive Deputy Director of the Research Center, and Dr. Liu Ming, Deputy Secretary of the Research Center all expressed their views on the theme of the meeting. All the participants together discussed the latest developments on the subject of the proposed Northeast Asia Bank, and exchanged their views on new trends, ideas, perspectives and proposals. They agreed on the major issues summarized below.

    I. Fully endorse the establishment of Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development In Dr. Lee Jay-Cho’'s remarks, he stated that at this year’'s summit meeting of Chairman Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama, there was a historic consensus on the need and importance of a mutual and closer relationship between China and the US for the future of the two largest economies of the world. The Assistant Secretary for Asian Affairs of the US state department believes that regional cooperation with Asia is utmost importance in the next ten years, and should be vigorously promoted.
    Former Assistant Minister of Finance and Former Executive Vice President of the Asia Development Bank, Dr. Stanley Katz observed that, based on discussions in Washington regarding the BRIC Bank, the proposal lacks basic building blocks and a foundation based on experience and research. However, the US is not opposed to the establishment of the NEABCD. On the proposed Bank, Japan should portray a clearer attitude, China should release a positive massage initially, and then Korea will have a positive response.
    The former Japanese Foreign Minister and the Research Center Honorary Chairman, Dr. Taro Nakayama addressed the meeting in a written statement saying that in order to pursue peace and security in Northeast Asia, regional development through economic cooperation should be our goal. If the cross-border gas pipeline from Siberia all the way to China, Busan Korea, and Fukuoka Japan, can be constructed, it can promote mutual understanding among these countries and people, and it might serve to prevent war and strife and build a system of mutual cooperation.
    Large-scale cross-border infrastructure requires huge capital and funding. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a regional development bank for Northeast Asia. Dr. Nakayama expressed his willingness to work with meeting participants to realize this vision. Mr. Byungwon Bahk, the former Executive Vice Minister of Planning and Finance and Chairman of the Korean Federation of Banks, pointed out that the ADB only provides 0.9% of its funds to three northeast provinces in China and Mongolia, there still remains a large gap for establishing a Northeast Asian Bank for future dynamic economic development in Northeast Asia. He also stated that China should take the leadership in the Northeast Asian Bank, and persuade Japan, Korea, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries to participate. China, Japan, and Korea already have shown a willingness and ability to cooperate evident in their funding arrangements in ASEAN. Why can’'t these countries cooperate to establish funding arrangements for the Northeast Asia region? Japan and the US will not take the initiative in promoting the establishment of the Bank, but once China proposes doing so, Japan, and the US would not be opposed to it.
    The chief representative of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation’'s Beijing office, Mr. Kikuchi on behalf of the Japanese Cabinet Adviser, JBIC Executive Director, Mr. Maeda stated that the opportunity for establishing the Northeast Asia Bank is ripe and Japan through establishment of the Bank would change the its role from simple investor to beneficiary/partner investor.
    Dr. Zou Lixing, Deputy Director of China State Development Bank for Research and the Research Center Advisor, emphasized that the Northeast Asia Development Bank is important for regional strategic cooperation. It will promote the development of regional infrastructure, economic development and corporation through trade, financial cooperation, cultural exchanges, etc. The establishment of the NEABCD will become a new driving force of economic development in Northeast Asia and a useful compliment to the existing international multilateral financial institutions.
    Mr. Kwan-Yong Park, Former Speaker of the Korea National Assembly of Korea, underscored the great significance in the establishment of a Northeast Asia Bank. He stated his belief that most important is to promote the cooperation and collaboration of all countries involved and his hope that we can work together for a common understanding of our goal.
    The Former Vice Chairman of China’'s National People’'s Congress and honorary Chairman of the Research Center, Dr. Jiang Zhenghua stated that, peaceful development and win-win cooperation is not only the world trend, but also China’'s responsibility.
    The leaders of China’'s State Council repeatedly instructed the relevant departments to conduct a study on the establishment of the Northeast Asia Bank, stating that we now have a better vision for establishing the Bank. They stressed that we should not limit ourselves to the region of Northeast Asia, but set a wider framework and be more inclusive. We can start from reality, and consider and envision a long-term strategy.
    The information, input, and ideas provided by the participants from China, the US, Korea, Japan, and other countries showed that the continued efforts to set up the Northeast Asia Bank rest on a solid social and economic foundation. The meeting concluded that the establishment of the Northeast Asia Bank is currently in a most critical period –. it requires that all the relevant countries bolster their confidence and continue their work.

    II. The new connotation and orientation of the Northeast Asia Bank
    Liqun Jin, the Chairman of China International Capital Corporation Ltd., Advisor of the Supervision and Guidance Committee of the Northeast Asia Financial Cooperation Research Center, and Former Vice Minister of Finance stated in a written statement that, given Asia’'s economic growth and its energy and infrastructure investment demands, currently available financing channels are inadequate and therefore, innovative financing mechanism are necessary. Asia should establish a multilateral financial institution that would run parallel to the ADB system, and would help meet the need for infrastructure construction and economic development. China needs to further strengthen financial cooperation with Northeast Asia and Asia. The Northeast Asian Bank represents such an innovative financing mechanism.
    Zou Ping, Chairman of the China Asia Pacific Institute and Secretary General of the Research Center for Financial Cooperation in Northeast Asia stated that in accordance with the “"open development, cooperative development, and win-win development”" requirements, we should insert the establishment of the Northeast Asian Bank into a broad strategy of innovative mechanisms for investment in and financing infrastructure development in Asia. The Northeast Asian Bank would be open to participation by Northeast Asia and Asian countries with China taking a lead and in Northeast Asia it would principally focus on cross-border infrastructure investments.
    Zhang Jianping, Senior Economist and Director of the Department of International Regional Cooperation, Institute for International Economic Research, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) argued that China, Japan, and South Korea already work together through the China-South Korea FTA and the China-Japan-South Korea FTA negotiations. The regional trade will increase rapidly after the two FTAs are established and they will need the safeguard and guarantee of the Northeast Asian Bank. The establishment of the FTAs and Northeast Asian Bank share some common ground and thereby the establishment of each will contribute to the other.

    III. Main consensus and suggestions at the meeting
    1. The meeting approved in principle “"The report in 2013 on setting up the Northeast Asia Bank for Cooperation and Development”" drafted by the research center.
    After modification and improvements, the report is scheduled to be submitted for discussion at the twenty-second annual Forum Conference in Vladivostok, Russia in August 2013, aimed at obtaining a broader consensus and further extending the international thrust. The Northeast Asia Economic Forum will submit it to the relevant policy institutions of the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean governments at an appropriate time.
    2. The meeting endorsed the proposal that the Northeast Asia Bank can be put into an innovative mechanism of investment and financing for developing cross-border infrastructure interconnections. The most important task is to act as soon as possible. The Northeast Asian countries will play the leading role and the participating countries can be expanded to other areas of Asia, including Australia and New Zealand.
    3. Expecting China to play an important role in the establishment of the Northeast Asia Bank, we suggest China could initiate the proposal for the establishment of the Northeast Asian Bank initiatively. South Korea will give a positive response and jointly promote the establishment of the Northeast Asia Bank with China as well as leading the way for Japan, Russia, Mongolia, the United States and other Asia countries to participate in it.
    4. The Northeast Asia Economic Forum will continue to play a coordinating and catalytic role, by disseminating relevant information and promoting dialogue with policymakers in Northeast Asia. Tianjin Municipal Government, according to the needs of an innovative mechanism for investment and financing Northeast Asian infrastructure interconnections, will pursue further studies and develop strategies for the Northeast Asian Bank taking into consideration any new international circumstances. This will serve as a reference base for policy decisions.
    5. It is hoped that the participants will make timely report on the meeting results to the relevant government institutions, in order to obtain the support of central governments. At the same time, we hope each country will encourage their national think-tanks to exert their influence by participating in policy research on the establishment of the Northeast Asian Bank.
    The Seventh Meeting of the Ad Hoc Committee finds that, through the exchange of communication, we can further understand what should be done and how, and we can promote mutual understanding to reach a necessary consensus for further achievements. The meeting stressed that the Tianjin Municipal Government has and will play a very important role in the establishment of the Northeast Asian Bank. We expect China to play the leading role in encouraging breakthroughs in financial cooperation in Northeast Asia.

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