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  • Industrial Policy, Rise of Skilled Labor, and Firm Growth in the Early Stage of ..
    Industrial Policy, Rise of Skilled Labor, and Firm Growth in the Early Stage of Economic Development

    This paper examines the role of education policy in raising specific human capital for industrialization during the period of economic miracle in Korea. As part of the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) drive, the Korean gov-ernmen..

    Sunghun Cho et al. Date 2023.12.15

    economic growth, Industrial policy
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    Summary
    This paper examines the role of education policy in raising specific human capital for industrialization during the period of economic miracle in Korea. As part of the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) drive, the Korean gov-ernment built technical schools near industrial complexes, resulting in a prompt supply of skilled labor. With practical curricula and training, young and skilled workers were able to enter the new sector. We also document these two patterns by using the Technical School List and the Occupational Wage survey. This government-led education reform led to higher firm-level productivity and growth, which is one of the important aspects explaining the success of the industrial policy. 

    Motivated by historical evidence, we combine the administrative Mining and Manufacturing survey with the Technical School List to study the effec-tiveness of industry-oriented education reform. We incorporate an education layer into the targeted industries under the HCI drive by exploiting the varia-tion in technical school openings at the county level.

    Our results show that plants in treated regions tend to employ and invest more than those in control regions, but value-added and labor productivity are negatively correlated with our interaction terms. This implies that firms in HCI sectors experienced disproportionate growth and should pay higher on-the-job costs for workers while education reform may reduce the overall cost of hiring industry-specific labor. In contrast, non-HCI sector firms ex-hibit a positive correlation with value added and labor productivity. These firms might benefit from the education reform that improved overall quality of skilled workers. Lastly, the effect of education reform was concentrated before the end of the HCI drive period and did not persist after 1980.

    In the era of emerging industrial policy, our paper presents a new mecha-nism that encourages more workers to enter a new sector targeted by gov-ernment-led plans. Our results serve as a starting point for re-evaluating con-temporary industrial policy and underscore the need to consider this addi-tional layer in future policy design.

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  • An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (N..
    An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)

    This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are ..

    Jiyoung Moon et al. Date 2023.10.27

    economic growth, Industrial policy
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    Contributors

    1. Introduction
    2. Developing the Framework of Index and Criteria
    3. Calculation of Index
    3.1. Functional Cooperation
    3.2. Political-Security Cooperation
    3.3. Socio-cultural Cooperation
    3.4. Institutionalization
    References

    Appendix: Scoring Scheme for NARCI

    Summary
    This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are functional cooperation, politico-security cooperation, socio-cultural cooperation, and institutionalization, in order to identify the conflict and cooperation situation in the Northeast Asian region. The analysis of economic integration found that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is characterized by a high level of integration in goods trade and regional value chain cooperation, but a relatively low level of integration in intra-regional direct investment and energy supply chain cooperation. The analysis of the political and security cooperation shows that the intensification of U.S.-China competition and the factional confrontation between Korea, U.S., Japan, and North Korea, China, Russia have had a significant impact on regional cooperation in political and diplomatic security. The result shows that the level of integration is low, with all evaluation indicators being negative. The analysis of the socio-cultural integration shows a relatively low level of integration in civil society cooperation and intergovernmental exchanges, a relatively high level of integration in cultural and educational exchanges and study abroad, and a neutral level of integration in information technology cooperation, labor mobility, and the share of tourists in the region. Finally, the analysis of institutional integration shows a relatively high level of integration in the bilateral channels between governments and the institutionalization of regional cooperation in the socio-cultural field, and half of the countries had institutional integration in financial integration and regional cooperation in the economic field. The level of integration in the political and security field was low due to the existence of only multilateral meetings. The analysis of NARCI shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy and socio-culture has been expanding in recent years. However, the low level of political and diplomatic cooperation in the region and related institutional deficiencies are considered to be insufficient to buffer these risks, and efforts are needed to address them.

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  • The Effects of Robotization on Foreign Direct Investment
    The Effects of Robotization on Foreign Direct Investment

    This study aims to investigate the effects of robotization on foreign direct investment (FDI). We address this research question by providing a theoreti-cal prediction derived from a simple model and then empirically testing our p..

    Sungwoo Hong et al. Date 2023.08.03

    Industrial structure, Foreign direct investment
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    1. Introduction

    2. Robotization and FDI: Conceptual Frameworks

    3. Data and Econometrics
    3.1. Data
    3.2. Econometrics

    4. Empirical Results

    5. Discussion
    5.1. Regional Heterogeneities
    5.2. Origin of Regional Heterogeneity: Role of Manufacturing and Education

    6. Concluding Remarks
    References

    Appendix

    Summary
    This study aims to investigate the effects of robotization on foreign direct investment (FDI). We address this research question by providing a theoreti-cal prediction derived from a simple model and then empirically testing our prediction. Theoretically, we found that an exogenous rise in industrial robots depresses both the robot rental rate and the domestic cost of task execution. Thus, it is more profitable to perform more tasks at home, leading to a de-crease in FDI. Empirical results are summarized as follows. First, an increase in robotization in source countries negatively affects outward FDI. Second, this negative effect is not consistent across global regions.
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  • Analyzing DPRK's Food Supply and Demand Condition with Food Culture
    Analyzing DPRK's Food Supply and Demand Condition with Food Culture

    Estimation of food supply and demand in North Korea follows the FAO/WFP calorie standard at least 1,640 kcal per person per day. This method is useful in that it can estimate the minimum amount of food shortage for survival, but h..

    Jangho Choi and Bum Hwan Kim Date 2022.12.30

    economic security, North Korean economy North Korea
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    Contributors

    1. Introduction
    2. Method of study

    3. Data of study

    4. Results

    5. Conclusion

    References
    Summary
    Estimation of food supply and demand in North Korea follows the FAO/WFP calorie standard at least 1,640 kcal per person per day. This method is useful in that it can estimate the minimum amount of food shortage for survival, but has a limitation in that it does not accurately reflect real life in that it ignores the food culture of North Korean residents. In this study, the amount of food supply and demand in North Korea was estimated by considering the food culture. The amount of food shortage was calculated by the difference between food consumption and supply. For food consumption, South Korea’s food supply and demand tables (1970 and 1990) and North Korean population were used to consider food culture. The amount of food supply considered North Korean food production, imports, and exports. As a result of the estimation, first, when the food shortage in North Korea in 2014 was estimated by reflecting South Korea’s food supply table in 1970, 2,388.4 thousand tons were oversupplied, resulting in a food supply and demand rate of 1.26. Second, assuming that North Korea’s food culture changes similarly to that of South Korea in 1990 due to the spread of marketplaces or the unification of South and North Korea, total food consumption increased by 33.3%, and the food supply and demand rate fell from 1.26 to 0.95. The results of this study have two implications. First, it is possible that the cereals shortage estimated by FAO/WFP based on the minimum calorie required for survival was overestimated. Second, North Korea’s carbohydrate-oriented food aid does not take North Korea’s food culture into account, so it is necessary to increase support for fish, meat, fruits and vegetables.
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  • A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production  on Global and Domestic Value..
    A Study on the Effects of Multinational Production on Global and Domestic Value Chains Following Trade Restructuring and Corresponding International Economic Policies

    Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trad..

    Myoung Shik Choi and Hun Dae Lee Date 2022.08.26

    Industrial structure, Free trade
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    Summary
    Emphasizing foreign affiliates amid stagnant global value-chained trade, this study provides important evidence for measurable policies which should be taken dependent on the level of GVCs integration in shaping international trade flows and multinational production activity. The recent decreased share of value-added exports within gross exports represents characteristics of a wider value chained network. It is common not only for firms to increase their economic activities globally but also for oversea affiliates to operate as the linchpin between the international and domestic parts of value chains. Our findings suggest that foreign affiliate activity strengthens domestic value chains, thereby leading to the outcome of further growth in the host country, while domestic affiliate activity abroad strengthens global value chains which spur growth in the broader world economy. 

    Based on empirical discussions centered on participating in GVCs, OECD high-income countries significantly integrated into GVCs will benefit from upgrading their GVCs policies such as capturing value-added in exports and building new technology or innovation. There is also a need to continue enforcing the domestic linkages of MNE affiliates, which contributes to growth and employment as they contract and cooperate with domestic firms. In addition, low-income countries not fully integrated into GVCs in the Asia-Pacific region may need to secure entry into existing GVCs with trade liberalization, while middle-income countries which have secured entry into GVCs may focus on enhancing competitiveness by increasing productivity and developing regional economic integration through forums like APEC.   
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  • COVID-19 and the Health of Banking  Sector in Japan and South Korea: A Comparati..
    COVID-19 and the Health of Banking Sector in Japan and South Korea: A Comparative Study

       1. The economies of Japan and South Korea are dominated by banks. Both countries have created a complex financial structure, including a well-established banking industry at their heart that supports economic operatio..

    Munim Kumar Barai Date 2022.07.30

    Financial policy, Financial system
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    1. Introduction

    2. Structure of Banking Systems in Japan and South Korea
    2.1 Japan
    2.2 Korea

    3. Literature Review
    3.1 A Review of the Japanese Banking System
    3.2 A Review of the Korean Banking System

    4. Objectives and Methodology of the Study

    5. Monetary Policy of BOJ and BOK Since 2010

    6. Covid-19 and the Banking Health of Japan and South Korea
    6.1 Portfolios of Banks in Japan and South Korea
    6.2 Productivity of Assets and Stockholders’ Equity (ROA and ROE)
    6.3 Profitability of Japanese and Korean Banks
    6.4 Operating Efficiency

    7. Banking Health in Pre-and Interim Period of Covid-19: A Comparative Analysis
    7.1 Comparative Portfolios of Banks
    7.2 Productivity of Banks
    7.3 Efficiency Ratios and NPAs of Banks
    7.4 Profitability

    8. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

    References

    Summary
       1. The economies of Japan and South Korea are dominated by banks. Both countries have created a complex financial structure, including a well-established banking industry at their heart that supports economic operations. However, both countries’ banking sectors have previously faced crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis (mostly in South Korea), the Japanese economic slowdown, and the financial crisis of 2007-08 (both). While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) approved the quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy and lowered interest rates to manage the crises, the Bank of Korea (BOK) pursued interest and financial restructuring as well as banking system digitization to overcome the crises. Covid-19 has disrupted the normal operation of banks, and the central banks and governments of both countries have implemented a variety of monetary and other measures to mitigate its economic and financial consequences.
       2. This study aims to identify and assess the health of domestic banks in Japan and South Korea for the Covid-19 ex-ante and interim periods. Several important variables, i.e., portfolios of assets and liabilities, asset productivity, stockholders' equity, profitability, and operating efficiency, have been included to evaluate the health of their banks. This compari-son of health metrics for 2010 to 2020 could help identify changes or shifts in the banking sector of Japan and Korea. The study has used ex-ploratory and descriptive methodologies to undertake qualitative and quantitative evaluations of important bank health indicators in the ex-ante and interim periods of Covid-19. It also used a hybrid method to produce research goals and arguments, including a framework based on what was already known in the field.
       3. Japanese banks are divided into four clusters, i.e., City Banks, Regional Banks I, Regional Banks II, and Trust Banks. The City Banks and Trust Banks clusters feature the largest banks, while the other clusters include smaller regional banks with a regional banking concentration. Despite being a large financial institution, Japan Post Bank is not considered a commercial bank in Japan. In Korea, Commercial and specialized banks are the two categories of banks. National and local banks make up the domestic commercial banks. The principal business of special banks is banking too.
       4. Throughout the timeframe of our investigation, the BOJ and BOK de-ployed monetary policy measures to influence bank conditions. In April 2013, the BOJ used an easy money policy, or QE, for the second time under Abenomics to combat chronic deflation and the rolling-recession effects of the 2007-08 GFC. Under QE-2, which is continuing, the BOJ has been influencing financial markets through interest rates, loan and fund support programs, and market purchases of assets of various du-rations. Starting in January 2016, the BOJ announced a negative interest rate of -0.1 percent on all new deposits. As a response to Covid-19, the BOJ gave institutions extra financial help at a low-interest rate of 0.1 percent and continues to purchase ETFs, J-REITs, JGBs, corporate bonds, etc. Due to QE-2 asset purchases, the BOJ’s balance sheet has grown by more than $5 trillion. BOK, for its part, used the bank rate as a primary policy tool to influence the money supply through bank lend-ing in the 2010s to mitigate the effects of the GFC of 2007–2008. The key interest rate was reduced from 5.25 percent in the third quarter of 2008 to 2.75 percent in the first quarter of 2013. Simultaneously, the sec-tor underwent structural restructuring to boost digitization. However, BOK adopted a more flexible monetary policy approach in response to the poor domestic economic development caused by the Covid-19 epi-demic. BOK also raised the limit on the Bank Intermediated Lending Support Facility to ₩35 trillion and made the Corporate Bond-Backed Lending Facility (CBBLF) a safety net for businesses, banks, and non-bank financial organizations.
       5. Figures show that the total assets of Japanese banks increased continu-ously, albeit at varied rates, from 2010 to 2019, never falling below 2 per-cent. The increase in bank loan amounts, from ¥8 trillion in 2012 to ¥543.9 trillion in 2021, explains some of the banks’ asset expansion. The loan portfolio breakdown reveals increased bank engagement in the real estate and housing sectors. Real estate has the highest industry share of outstanding loans, accounting for roughly 81 percent of all bank loans in 2020. Before Covid-19, both new consumer and home loans fell. Overall, portfolios of commercial banks did not undergo any significant rebalancing after QE-2. Their stockholdings fluctuated, and corporate bond holdings decreased, but t stock holdings climbed. In contrast to the BOJ's expectations, banks saw a significant increase in JGB purchas-es in FY 2020–21. Except for deposits, the effects of QE-2 and Covid-19 on banks’ liabilities were minimal. Their loan-to-deposit ratio has worsened, with loans accounting for only 66.2 percent of deposits in 2021, a record high during the pandemic. Throughout the period 2011 to 2020, the asset growth lines of Korean domestic banks shifted fre-quently. On the other hand, bank assets have been increasing since 2017, with assets reaching ₩2,977.6 trillion in 2020, up 10.6 percent from 2019. Most of the growth in banks’ assets came from borrowers’ loans and securities holdings, presently hovering around 70 percent. Between 2011 and 2020, the loans stayed higher than the deposits. In 2020, the overall liabilities of banks in South Korea were larger than the country’s GDP.
       6. Japanese banks had relatively low net earnings against their assets in terms of productivity, resulting in a poor return on assets (ROA). The highest ROA for all clusters of banks, both individually and collectively, was recorded in FY 2013-14. However, their ROA dropped in 2016-17 and 2019-2020. Nevertheless, Japanese banks earned a much higher ROE than their ROA. However, in 2020–2021, the overall bank ROE increased to 3.96 percent. Since 2010, the ROE of Regional Banks I and II has been lower than that of other banks. For Korean banks, the high-est ROA was in 2011, at 0.81 percent, and the lowest in 2016, at 0.11 percent. Banks’ ROA dropped dramatically in 2019 and 2020. Korean banks’ return on equity peaked in 2011 (9.81 percent) and troughed in 2016 (1.37 percent). In the year 2020, Covid-19 had a low ROE of 5.54 percent.
       7. Japanese banks’ ordinary profits peaked at 7.39 percent in 2014 and have steadily declined. However, the operational profit data from 2015 to 2020 has formed a U-shaped curve, indicating recent improvement. At the same time, banks' net incomes were significantly lower than their op-erating profits. QE-2 is perceived to be the significant underlying factor for their low NIs. When Covid-19 was at its most disruptive, however, the rate of net income increased to 1.84 percent in 2020, up from 1.11 percent the year before. In contrast, Korean banks had a difficult year in 2016, with NI falling by 43.18 percent from the previous year. However, net income improved over the next two years. Nonetheless, their net in-come has fallen since 2018, declining to ₩11 trillion in 2020.
       8. The efficiency of Japanese banks has remained low for a long time. From 2011 to 2021, none of the Japanese bank clusters met even the less strict efficiency standard of 60%. Even though Covid-19 might the-oretically cut operational expenses, Japanese banks’ overall efficiency ra-tio in 2021 was 83.9 percent. We are constrained by the Korean banks’ operational efficiency data. However, available data for 2020, the year of the COVID-19 outbreak, shows that most of them maintained an effi-ciency ratio of 60% or less.
       9. Since 2012, Japanese banks have reduced the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans. Between 2012 and 2020, however, the ratio fell from 2.4 to 1.1 percent. Due to Covid-19, the NPL ratio went marginally up to 1.2 percent in 2021. At the same time, Korean banks had significantly lower NPL ratios than Japanese banks. All banks’ total NPL was 0.25 percent of their loans in 2020. Banks in Japan and Korea are well-capitalized, evidenced by their good CARs. However, Japanese banks are better positioned with a higher ratio of CAR. The net interest margins (NIM) index clearly shows that Korean banks do better than their Japanese counterparts. However, in 2019 and 2020, the profitability index of Japanese and South Korean domestic banks fell.
       10. Despite their differences, the study revealed that Korean domestic banks could sustain better health indicators than their Japanese counterparts for much of the study period. Banks in Japan are trying to maintain bet-ter financial health with the ultra-low interest rates imposed by the QE-2 monetary policy. During Covid-19, the profitability and efficiency of the sector have been adversely affected. In contrast, Korean banks had the advantage of higher interest rates. They maintained a better degree of ef-ficiency, while their low nonperforming loans provided them with man-agerial strength, though Covid-19 seems to have marginally impacted their efficiency, profitability, and performance.

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  • Consumer Responses to Price Shocks of Wine Imports in Korea
    Consumer Responses to Price Shocks of Wine Imports in Korea

    The main purpose of the study is to develop a methodology that divides consumers' responses to FTAs or commodity taxes into quantitative and qualitative margins, which cause exogenous price changes for some specific goods. The use..

    Chul Chung et al. Date 2021.07.30

    Trade policy, Free trade
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    1. Introduction

    2. Literature Review
    2-1. Research on the Effects of FTAs and Consumption in Korea
    2-2. Research on Demand Analysis

    3. Methodology

    4. Empirical Analysis
    4-1. Data
    4-2. Empirical Results

    5. Conclusion

    References
    Summary
    The main purpose of the study is to develop a methodology that divides consumers' responses to FTAs or commodity taxes into quantitative and qualitative margins, which cause exogenous price changes for some specific goods. The use of unit values as a dependent variable for consumers' qualitative choice, unlike the usual method of utilization of unit values as a proxy variable for market prices, showed that qualitative response to price changes exists and its size is significant. The methodology of separating and estimating qualitative responses to income changes as in economic crises is also presented, and the empirical analysis using this methodology showed that much of the existing income effects were qualitative responses. As a key result, the price elasticity of -1.178 estimated by the usual demand model based on a single commodity assumption is reduced to -0.712 for the quantitative margin only, and the qualitative margin is the remaining -0.466, accounting for more than a third of the overall response. The significant degree of qualitative response estimates suggests that policy makers and researchers should consider qualitative response as an important factor when analyzing the effectiveness of FTAs, especially on consumption.
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  • A Theoretical Approach to Evaluating Global Vaccination Plans
    A Theoretical Approach to Evaluating Global Vaccination Plans

    We study a game-theoretic model in which there are two periods of time in each of which agents (players) make a vaccination decision, and they choose the level of economic activities. In addition, we consider two kinds of policy m..

    Youngseok Park and Sangjun Yea Date 2021.03.31

    Economic cooperation, International security
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    Content
    Executive Summary 

    1. Introduction 

    2. Model 

    3. Subgame-Perfect Nash Equilibrium 

    4. Government Policies 

    5. Conclusion 

    References 
    Summary
    We study a game-theoretic model in which there are two periods of time in each of which agents (players) make a vaccination decision, and they choose the level of economic activities. In addition, we consider two kinds of policy measures 1) a vaccination passport policy and 2) a subsidy policy to promote vaccination, and compare the social welfare in each case. We find that introducing a vaccine passport policy or subsidizing to mitigate the expected costs from vaccination may decrease the social welfare when a vaccine is effective to reducing the extent of severeness of illness from virus infection but not successful in curbing the transmissibility of virus.
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  • Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Re..
    Determinants of Korean Outward Foreign Direct Investment: How Do Korean Firms Respond to the Labor Costs of Host Countries?

    Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Usi..

    Hanbyul Ryu and Young Sik Jeong Date 2020.09.01

    Labor market, Foreign direct investment
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    Content

    1. Introduction 


    2. Literature Review


    3. Data and Summary Statistics


    4. Empirical Analysis 


    5. Main Results 
    5-1. Wage Trends 
    5-2. Asian Developing Countries
    5-3. Developed Countries 


    6. Conclusion 


    References

    Summary

    Low cost of labor has been one of the major incentives that foreign firms invest in many developing countries. Yet, many developing countries including China and ASEAN have recently experienced a rapid increase in labor costs. Using the wage information provided by JETRO, this study examines how Korean FDI outflow is affected by the increase in labor costs of the manufacturing industry in host countries. The results indicate that the worker’s and engineer’s wages in Asian developing countries, who accumulated at least 3 and 5 years of work experience, have generally a negative impact on Korean FDI outflow. However, there exist positive relationships between the wages and FDI when the wages stay at very low levels. We do not find evidence that labor costs make a significant impact on Korean FDI outflow to European or Developed countries.
     

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  • Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games
    Bargaining and War: On the Communication Equilibrium in Conflict Games

    We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to g..

    Youngseok Park and Colin Campbell Date 2020.08.10

    Political Economy, International security
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    Content

    Executive Summary 


    1. Introduction


    2. The Conflict Game with Two Asymmetric Players 
    2.1 The Conflict Game with Cheap-Talk Communication 
    2.2 Effective Cheap-Talk Communication 
    2.3 Ineffective Communication
     
    3. Discussion 


    References 

    Summary

    We present a version of Baliga and Sjostrom’s (2012a) conflict games with two asymmetric players. The players contemplate whether to take an active engagement action to compel the leader of a neighboring state (an extremist) to give up his risky weapons. We show that a player with greater damage from the extremist is more likely to choose an active engagement action than a player with lesser damage. Furthermore, we examine cheap-talk communication equilibria with the extremist. The likelihood of both players choosing the active engagement action decreases by a hawkish extremist who can send a provocative message, if both players are coordination types. If both players are opportunistic types, a dovish extremist can send an appeasement message that causes one player to be more active while another to be more inactive. Lastly, we show that there does not exist any other communication equilibrium for either kind of extremist, for any other combination of player types.
     

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