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  • 아세안 주요국의 경쟁법 비교분석: 디지털플랫폼 시장 M&A를 중심으로
    Competition Policy and Law in the ASEAN Countries: Focusing on Digital Platform M&A

       This study reviews the competition policies of major ASEAN countries from institutional, legal, and economic perspectives, focusing on M&A in the digital platform market, and then proposes overseas competition pol..

    Yungshin Jang et al. Date 2021.04.30

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       This study reviews the competition policies of major ASEAN countries from institutional, legal, and economic perspectives, focusing on M&A in the digital platform market, and then proposes overseas competition policies for Korea. First of all, Chapter Two introduces the implications of the digital platform market in terms of competition policy, and the recent economic theories and global discussion trends for anti-competitive M&A which could arise from these features. Significant features of the digital platforms such as economies of scale, network effects, cost reduction in collecting, analyzing, and storing data will create pro-competitive effects of increasing consumer welfare on the demand side as well as reducing inefficiencies on the production side. However, these pro-competitive features at the same time can also lead to potential monopolization in the market, or “tipping” toward dominant firms, due to the significantly robust economies of scope possible in the digital platform market. In particular, even though “killer acquisitions” to eliminate potential competitors in the future can cause serious anti-competitive effects in the competitive process of tech companies, many mergers and acquisitions conducted by tech giants such as GAFAM (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft) since 2010 have been approved by competition authorities without any conditions or screening process. This situation sparked debate on whether the previous competition law paradigm could be applied in the digital economy without any modification. In this line, some leading competition authorities worry that the current merger review policy can undermine the possible birth and development of start-ups, which could grow to be future competitors. They also address the need to introduce a new regulation paradigm.
       Chapter Three covers market competition in the digital economy of six ASEAN member states – Indonesia, Singapore, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Thailand – which have relatively sizable digital economies. This chapter explicitly addresses the issues of e-commerce, ride-hailing and online delivery, online travel booking, and over-the-top media service. In addition, we investigate global digital platform M&A cases in the region from 2015 to 2019 using the Thomson Reuters EIKON data set and identify the features of the cases by country and industry. While market competition structure and features differ from country to country, sustainable growth of the digital platform market in the region is expected considering the rapid growth rates of this region’s population and economy. The recent COVID-19 outbreak will accelerate the growing trend due to the subsequent increase in online activities, even though some sectors such as ride-hailing are experiencing adverse effects due to the pandemic. However, because ride-hailing companies such as Grab and Gojek are leveraging their platforms to expand their business areas into delivery and finance services, the growing effects in the market are greater than contracting ones in total. We find that the M&A activities of the digital platform companies are very active as the relevant market grows in the region. Most of all, e-commerce and ride-hailing account for the most significant portion of the market. M&A transactions in the e-commerce sector of Chinese companies occupy a large portion. Looking at major M&A cases in the e-commerce sector, we can identify the cases of Lazada and Tokopedia conducted by Alibaba in China. On the other hand, a promising local platform based on ASEAN, Grab merged with the global platform Uber. Through this market situation, we observe that fierce competition is taking place between local and global platforms.
       Chapter Four first addresses the introduction of competition laws in all ASEAN member states and then delves into a comparison of competition laws in four countries (Indonesia, Singapore, Viet Nam, and the Philippines), focusing on merger review regimes. While Indonesia was the first country to introduce a competition law in ASEAN, Singapore and the Philippines operate relatively advanced competition policies vis-a-vis the United States or European Union. Viet Nam started to accept global standards since the comprehensive amendment of its competition law in 2018. In regulating anti-cartel behaviors, all four countries’ competition authorities commonly separate “per se illegal rule” and “rule of reason” when enforcing their laws, but the range and cartel types to apply those rules differ from country to country. Three countries except for Indonesia run leniency programs which grant exemptions or reduction of penalty when cartel firms concede their illegal behaviors to competition authorities. In the regulation of abuse of dominance, all four countries assume that a firm has a dominant position if the firm's market share is above a certain threshold. The competition laws explicitly regulate the types of prohibited behaviors. The threshold is 60% in Singapore, 50% in Indonesia and the Philippines, and 30% in Viet Nam, which implies that Singapore's competition law applies the most relaxed standards and Viet Nam the most strict standards. Compared to the regulation of cartel conduct and abuse of dominance, merger review regimes show significantly heterogeneous institutional characteristics. The requirements for reporting mergers and acquisitions show a wide spectrum: Singapore has a post-review process where competition law requires firms to report the M&As afterwards but do not have to report consolidations in advance. However, Viet Nam and the Philippines have a mandatory pre-review process where merging firms are obligated to report the M&As to the authorities and obtain approval in advance. In the middle of the two regimes, Indonesia runs voluntary pre-review and mandatory post-review regimes. These institutional differences can lead the firms to conduct cross-border M&As in the ASEAN region to deal with increasing competition law risks. 
       Chapter Five consists of two main sections. The first section studies and compares each of the four competition authorities’ decisions on whether the authorities approved a representative cross-border M&A case in the region in 2018, the Grab-Uber M&A case, or not. In particular, this section investigates why each competition authority reached different conclusions on the same M&A case. The competition authorities of Singapore and the Philippines both decided that the Grab-Uber M&A was anti-competitive. They argued that the consolidated Grab’s market power after the merger would be strengthened due to the elimination of its strong competitor, Uber. The merger had the effect of easing intense competition pressure in the digital platform market. Nonetheless, due to the institutional limitations of the voluntary post-review regime in the country, the merger was approved by Singapore’s competition authority with certain behavioral remedies, such as restrictions against raising prices. The Philippines’ competition authority approved the case, but took a slightly different method from Singapore’s by finalizing it by way of consent order. In Viet Nam, the Vietnam Competition and Consumer Authority (VCCA) delivered its initial opinion that the M&A should not be approved due to the potential competition restrictive effects, however the Vietnam Competition Council (VCC), as the final decision commission, chose not to accept the proposal and approved the merger without any conditions. The Indonesian competition authority did not apply the competition law, arguing that the merger did not show any changes of control rights regulated in the law and only was considered as sales of an asset. The second section empirically analyzes the economic effects of the Grab-Uber M&A case on market competition using the data set provided by Allied Market Research. The data set includes information on the features of consumers and three ride-hailing applications, Grab, Uber, and Gojek, from 2008 to 2019. Compared to other countries, the results show that the anti-competitive effects from the merger were weaker in Indonesia where the consolidated Grab still has a strong competitor, Gojek. 
       Based on the analysis results presented in Chapters two to five, we confirmed the rapid growth of digital platforms and intensified competition in the digital platform market of the ASEAN region. Also, it is expected that the competition authorities will more actively enforce their competition laws in the digital platform market. Considering the legal and institutional gaps across countries and divide in their capacity to enforce competition laws, it is important to synchronize the ASEAN member state’s regimes by reducing the heterogeneity in competition policy within the region. Also, capacity building programs to enhance enforcement skills should be addressed. In particular, due to the complicated nature and convergence features of the digital economy, competition authorities in ASEAN should consider a new regulation paradigm in competition policy suitable to the changing digital competition environments. This study provides four policy suggestions in the context of international competition policy to strengthen global cooperation with the ASEAN member states and minimize competition law risks of Korean companies that are conducting or planning to do business in the region. First, in line with the New Southern Policy, which emphasizes multilateral cooperation with ASEAN, Korea’s competition authority should build a cooperation channel with the ASEAN Experts Group on Competition and bilateral cooperation with each member state. Second, the authority should promote demand-based and customized collaborative projects in the areas of competition policy through joint investigation, research, and sharing best practices in the digital platform economy. This cooperation could provide the ASEAN member states with capacity building on cultivating competition environments and enforcing competition laws. Third, Korea’s competition authority should establish a cooperation network with the ASEAN Competition Enforcer’s Network to prepare for the increasing demand of competition law enforcement in the digital economy. Finally, we confirmed the increasing trend of business opportunities in the digital economy of the ASEAN region. Thus, the Korean government should provide the Korean companies with more detailed information on the local competition law and the authorities’ enforcement standards to minimize competition law risks by helping them avoid violating the local competition laws. 
  • 정체성으로 본 푸틴의 러시아: 한,러 교류증진을 위한 시사점을 중심으로
    Putin’s Russia in the Context of Identity

       Explaining a country in the context of national identity provides us with a deeper and more comprehensive view. Understanding the background of why Russia has gone through such a process and has been forced to act lik..

    Sang Nam Park et al. Date 2021.04.28

    Economic relations, Economic cooperation Russia Eurasia
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    Summary
       Explaining a country in the context of national identity provides us with a deeper and more comprehensive view. Understanding the background of why Russia has gone through such a process and has been forced to act like that through the past history will be of great help in finding mutually helpful cooperation measures at the point where the other person needs it.
       This study was written for the purpose of examining the process and characteristics of the formation of Russian identity, and to understand the political, economic, and social culture of modern Russia.
       Modern Russia’s politics, economy, and culture are the result of pursuing their own tradition and identity while absorbing the nutrients of Eastern and Western civilization. Russia, a multiracial and multicultural country, is a country with geographic, civilized, and demographic conditions in which it is not possible to clearly describe their identities. So Russia has as complex elements as its vast territory and natural environment.
       Modern Russia’s politics, economy, and culture are the result of pursuing their own tradition and identity while absorbing the nutrients of Eastern and Western civilization. Russia, a multi-ethnical and multi-cultural country, is a country with geographic, civilized, and demographic conditions in which it is not possible to clearly describe their identities. So Russia has as complex elements as its vast territory and natural environment.
       In fact, identity is not fixed and immutable. The Russian identity was also constantly reconstructed and interpreted in various ways, depending on the times, social changes, and the intentions of the ruling powers. The coexistence of conflicting elements, one of the characteristics of Russian identity, is also a result of looking at their inner selves differently. The Russians also sought their own direction in Europe and sought it from Eurasian elements as well. These two perspectives were differentiated into various perspectives through conflict and interaction with each other.
       Russian intellectuals say that within themselves there is a heterogeneous element of ascetic Russian Orthodox beliefs and intense secular desires. Russia clearly shows this duality through its national identity. Russia’s identity turmoil is also the result of geopolitical conditions that were located on the outskirts or in the middle of civilization. Even in the midst of such confusion, the Orthodox church, which has become a customary religion, has a profound influence on politics, economy, and social culture as well as the formation of Russian identity.
       Geographically, Russia encompasses both extremes of the Eurasian continent due to its vast territories facing the East and the West, as well as the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
       Putin wants to take advantage of these geographic conditions to emerge as a great power. To this end, it argues on the reinforcement of authoritarianism and nationalism necessary for efficient state management. Putin’s anti-Western policy reflects a sense of crisis that the introduction of Western-style democracy could jeopardize the security of their regime.
       In summary, the characteristics of Russian political culture are strong centralism and vertical power structure, authoritarianism, dual attitude of envy and rejection toward Europe, pursuit of tradition and vigilance against external forces, minority rule and its domination, state capitalism with nationalism, and imperialism orientation.  
       The lens of national identity is also needed to find out the characteristics of the Russian economy, which is different from that of the West. Russia’s identity, symbolized by nationalism, led to state capitalism in the field of economy as well. In the context of identity, the characteristics of the Russian economy can be explained as a state-led economy, a privileged economy by minority rule, communism, and the tendency to pursue independent economic spheres. State capitalism, in which political logic takes precedence over market, can be interpreted as originating from Russian authoritarianism and nationalist political culture. The nationalization policy, the privileged economy of minority power elites, and the gap between the rich and the poor are in the same vein. The Nobles and permanent residents of the Russian Empire, the nomenclature of the Soviet Union, Oligarhi of the Yeltsin period, and Siloviki of the Putin period form the lineage of the privileged class. In terms of foreign economic policy, Russia is simultaneously promoting openness to the outside world and forming an independent economic block.
       Russia’s nationalistic nature has greatly influenced the legislative system and its culture of conflict resolution. The Orthodox and authoritarian legal system received from the Byzantine Empire in East Rome is inherited to modern Russia. The Putin-era legal culture, called the “dictatorship of the law,” is now more authoritarian than any other country.
       The dispute resolution culture in Russia shows the characteristics of coexistence of the rule by informal relationship of human and rule of law. Dispute resolution methods that rely on informal human relations are governed by personal connections and acquaintances, and may appear as a behavior of taking private interests by bypassing rules and laws. Although the practice of relying on personal connections is still in common use, it is evaluated that the method of solving problems through laws and institutions is gradually becoming established. However, even in the Putin era, dispute resolution is still being criticized for being driven by power or money. It is not the rule of law, but the arbitrary rule of the privileged class using state power.
       In conclusion, Orthodox beliefs and Byzantine authoritarian cultural heritages, geographical and civilized conditions in the middle between Asia and Europe, and hostility to external forces formed by exposure to numerous invasions had a significant impact on Russian identity. In addition, multicultural and multi-ethnical factors following the expansion of territory and internal and external policies of the ruling forces, which have changed by era, are combined to form modern Russia’s political, economic, and social culture.
       The national identity formed in this way provides a consistent and useful context for explaining not only politics, but also the economy and the culture of dispute resolution. Therefore, it is difficult to properly understand this huge country unless an understanding of the national identity embodied in Russian characteristics is prerequisite. Russia’s history, which has created a common denominator of national identity, can be explained as “coexistence of difference and uniformity” amid the vast geographic conditions and the mixture of heterogeneous elements in which multi-ethnic people live. This is also the result of the strong state power trying to dissolve the heterogeneous elements of multi-ethnic and multi-civilization into a unified national identity. Therefore, in order to comprehensively understand the various aspects of Russia, the context of national identity is necessary.
       The Chapter 1 - Introduction (Sang-Nam Park) and Chapter 2 ( Sang- Jun Park and Sang-Hyeon Kim) deals with the theoretical background of identity and the process of forming a Russian identity. The Chapter 3 (Sang-Nam Park) explains the close relationship between Russian identity and politics. Chapter 4 (Yeon-Kwan Cho) analyzed the Russian economy in relation to its identity. Chapter 5 (Young-Ok Kim) introduces the culture of conflict resolution in terms of the authoritarian legal culture of Russia. The Chapter 6 Conclusion ( Sang- Nam Park) contains a comprehensive interpretation and perspective on Russian identity, politics, economy, and legal culture. The last Chapter 7(Sang-Nam Park,  Dong-Ho Yeom, and Young-Ok Kim) presented policy implications for cooperation between Korea and Russia were presented in a large framework.
  • A Theoretical Approach to Evaluating Global Vaccination Plans
    A Theoretical Approach to Evaluating Global Vaccination Plans

    We study a game-theoretic model in which there are two periods of time in each of which agents (players) make a vaccination decision, and they choose the level of economic activities. In addition, we consider two kinds of policy m..

    Youngseok Park and Sangjun Yea Date 2021.03.31

    Economic cooperation, International security
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    Executive Summary 

    1. Introduction 

    2. Model 

    3. Subgame-Perfect Nash Equilibrium 

    4. Government Policies 

    5. Conclusion 

    References 
    Summary
    We study a game-theoretic model in which there are two periods of time in each of which agents (players) make a vaccination decision, and they choose the level of economic activities. In addition, we consider two kinds of policy measures 1) a vaccination passport policy and 2) a subsidy policy to promote vaccination, and compare the social welfare in each case. We find that introducing a vaccine passport policy or subsidizing to mitigate the expected costs from vaccination may decrease the social welfare when a vaccine is effective to reducing the extent of severeness of illness from virus infection but not successful in curbing the transmissibility of virus.
  • 디지털 전환 시대의 국경간 전자조달 논의 동향과 시사점
    Cross-border e-Procurement in the Digital Transformation: Discussions and Implications

       This report analyzes statistics on cross-border e-procurement, examines the use of e-procurement and e-procurement systems in the USA, the EU, and Korea, and comparatively analyzes e-procurement norms in international..

    Ji Hyun Park Date 2021.03.30

    Multilateral negotiations, Trade policy
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       This report analyzes statistics on cross-border e-procurement, examines the use of e-procurement and e-procurement systems in the USA, the EU, and Korea, and comparatively analyzes e-procurement norms in international trade agreements to identify implications. 
       The analysis of statistics on cross-border e-procurement included data on millions of procurement contracts per year downloaded from government websites to estimate the amounts of procurement, or that gained by processing publicly available data. The results showed that, while the public procurement is a gigantic market that accounts for 10‒15% of the GDP, cross-border e-procurement only represented an insignificant share. In the US procurement market, which is the largest single market in the world, cross-border e-procurement as defined by vendor nationality only accounted for 2‒3% (excluding the USA, in terms of value). This figure was 3% in the EU (direct cross-border procurement, in terms of value), and less than 1% in Korea (central government, foreign funds). However, it is notable that, as in the cases of the EU, Korea, and the USA, there is an upward trend in the size of cross-border e-procurement in countries that use electronic means in the procurement process.
       Country-specific e-procurement data from World Bank reports were analyzed to take stock of the use of e-procurement. The number of countries using electronic means decreased as the e-procurement process progressed. Also, while the US, the EU, and Korea have well-organized e-procurement systems and are showing an increase in their use of e-procurement, the share of cross-border e-procurement in these countries was shown to be very low, indicating a high entry barrier in the procurement market.
       Comparative analysis of e-procurement norms in different international trade agreements revealed incremental increases in bilateral and regional trade agreements that embrace e-procurement norms. Recent FTAs such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have added or newly established provisions on e-procurement cooperation. In particular, the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), a digital trade agreement, includes provisions on cooperation (cooperation activities related to e-procurement) in government procurement. For the DEPA, it is notable that government procurement, which would otherwise have been addressed in individual chapters in other trade agreements, was included in the digital trade agreement. This represents a new trend in digital trade where government procurement proceeds from the perspective of cooperation. E-procurement cooperation provisions that have recently emerged one after another in trade agreements including FTAs are likely to be added or newly drafted into more concrete cooperation provisions within trade agreements to come.
       This report presents ways to vitalize cross-border e-procurement and develop norms for e-procurement. The overarching prerequisite to the vitalization of cross-border e-procurement is to build procurement statistics as the basis for developing procurement policies. Also important, particularly for countries actively utilizing electronic means in public procurement, is to modernize procurement systems and increase the use of e-procurement, as seen in the case of the EU, which experienced increases in cross-border transactions. However, even if a country has a well-developed e-procurement system, the country’s institutional regulations may serve as an entry barrier that prevents foreign companies from entering the procurement market. In this sense, efforts must be made to ease or improve institutional regulations that may hinder cross-border e-procurement. There is a need to strengthen international cooperation, especially in response to communicable diseases, and have an international council or organization overseeing e-procurement to coordinate and regulate the execution of procurement activities in emergency situations. Most of all, openness in government procurement will be limited as long as the policy stance to take advantage of government procurement as a policy tool remains, and this calls for countries’ willingness to open their procurement markets.
       This report suggests directions for the development of norms for cross-border e-procurement in preparation for an expansion in agreements related to e-procurement. In the short run, inter-governmental discussions over cooperation for e-procurement and international discussions should be expanded. In the medium term, we can expect discussions over including e-procurement in electronic commerce or digital trade chapters of international trade agreements, rather than government procurement chapters, as part of digital trade. The long- term orientation should be to establish norms to promote cross-border e-procurement, which will require discussions and considerations to regulate entry barriers in e-procurement markets and institutional regulations that hinder cross-border e-procurement. This highlights, in particular, the roles of the WTO in promoting cross-border e-procurement and developing norms for e-procurement. The e-procurement system is one of Korea’s strong points, and the country should be aggressive in exporting it. To expand exports of the Korean e-procurement system, considerations should be made for many other aspects including interconnected systems, operations, and training, rather than just aiming to export the procurement system itself. Particularly important is continued post-export follow-up, as well as constant monitoring and networking aimed at extending the scope of export from building e-procurement systems to include the advancement of these systems as well.
  • 대외자산 수익률 결정요인 분석
    The Determinants of Return on External Assets

       As external asset positions increased significantly in both developed and emerging countries due to globalization and financial integration, countries are exposed to capital gains and losses caused by fluctuations in ..

    Hyosang Kim et al. Date 2021.02.26

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       As external asset positions increased significantly in both developed and emerging countries due to globalization and financial integration, countries are exposed to capital gains and losses caused by fluctuations in exchange rates and asset values. This study constructs the return rate of external asset position (rate of external) by considering the individual country as the economy’s representative agent. Assuming that the foreign asset position is the optimal investment portfolio, the rate of external defined in this study directly measures the country’s risk premium. The rate of external is also the excess return of the portfolio that takes a long for foreign assets and a short for foreign liabilities.
       We observe that advanced economies have a far greater rate of external than emerging countries in general. In comparison, emerging countries have a relatively higher rate of external during crisis periods. Thus, international risk sharing and consumption smoothing mechanism works through external investment. Advanced economies are in a speculator position, while emerging countries are in a hedging position.
       We also empirically analyze the determinants of the rate of external. The rate of external is higher as the foreign assets’ size, and the proportion of risky assets increased. There are negative relationships with the domestic currency value, GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and current accounts. The rate of external is higher as the financial market and institutions developed, and the financial market openness increased. However, these effects are offset in the event of financial instability proxied by the VXO index.
       Contrary to general expectations, foreign reserves are likely to relate to the return on foreign liabilities rather than foreign assets. The more the foreign reserves, the higher the return on foreign liability. Countries with larger amounts of foreign reserves are more likely to have favorable economic conditions such as trade surplus, higher growth rate, and higher productivity, bringing a higher return rate to foreign investors. These effects, however, disappear in times of financial instability.
  • 코로나19 이후 중국의 분야별 변화와 시사점
    Changes by Field in China since COVID-19 and Implications for Korea

    I. Introduction   China has been able to escape from the Covid-19 outbreak relatively quickly compared to other countries. Nevertheless, it still remains greatly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic across its politics, e..

    Jaichul Heo et al. Date 2020.12.31

    Financial cooperation, Chinese politics China
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    Summary
    I. Introduction
       China has been able to escape from the Covid-19 outbreak relatively quickly compared to other countries. Nevertheless, it still remains greatly influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic across its politics, economy, society, culture, and other areas, which has led to various changes throughout China. 
       Therefore, this study comprehensively examined the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on various aspects of Chinese politics, economy, society, and culture. And in response to these changes in Chinese society, the study explores new strategies toward China in the post-Covid-19 era.

    II. Changes by Field in China
    1. Domestic politics
       In the early days of the Covid-19 outbreak, there was controversy over whether China’s party-state system was shaken and there was a problem in leadership, but the analysis found no evidence to support this. On the contrary, the current party-state system showed adaptability to the changed circum-stance, and a “gathering effect” also appeared. However, it is necessary to observe further developments about whether this phenomenon can be sustained in the medium and long term.

    2. Foreign relations
       The U.S. and China have been engaged in a fierce battle of no concessions over responsibility for the Covid-19 pandemic, and while the conflict and competition are expanding further, the space for negotiations is shrinking. The Covid-19 pandemic has confirmed that the global leadership of powerful countries has weakened significantly and the international community is entering its own path of survival. In response to non-traditional security threats such as Covid-19, China is pushing for global public health governance with emphasis on multilateralism, and taking advantage of the void in global leadership left by the U.S. to become a global leader in the Covid-19 response.

    3. Economy and trade
       As the Chinese economy entered the New Normal (新常態) era, which means an era of medium-speed growth beginning around 2012, the Chinese government has been pushing for structural reforms on the supply side to resolve various structural contradictions. However, with the trade friction between the United States and China intensifying in 2018 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, such restructuring is showing signs of delay. As a coun-termeasure against Covid-19 and the deepening U.S.-China conflict, the Chinese government is preparing a medium- and long-term development strategy for the Post-Covid, concentrated on a “dual-circulation” development strategy, which is at the core of the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25). 
       Along with these changes and impacts on the domestic economy, the Covid-19 pandemic has also had a profound impact on China’s foreign trade circumstances. In particular, as the global pandemic raised the need for reorganization of the GVC, which had previously been formed around China, Chinese companies are also seeking ways to respond by establishing a production base in ASEAN.
       Meanwhile, the effects and reactions of Covid-19 on China’s economy varied by region. In order to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic, it is actively transitioning toward the domestic market in regions that are highly dependent on exports, and is pushing to expand regional industries and supply chains to cope with the reorganization of GVC.

    4. Society and culture
       The Chinese government’s centralized quarantine and economic recovery response was successful in stabilizing the Covid-19 infection crisis relatively quickly compared to other countries, but at the same time weakened the social safety net and expanded labor instability. In addition, social discussions on the balance between personal privacy and quarantine measures are expected in the future due to the frequent restrictions placed on the privacy and rights of the Chinese people in the process of conducting massive epidemiological investigations. On the other hand, the prospect was raised at home and abroad that the media environment in China will change due to the Covid-19 outbreak. But as a result, media control was strengthened and justified in the quarantine process instead of an increase in freedom of speech.
       At the same time, changes in China’s dietary culture as a whole have been seen since the Covid-19 outbreak, with the culture of using individual serving portions (分餐制) and serving chopsticks (公筷) spreading in China, and social movements to reduce food waste. Covid-19 is also attracting the older generations to Internet culture, and has brought changes in the social interaction and communication methods of Chinese people, representative examples being the so-called “bullet comments” (弹幕) and “cloud” culture (云互动).

    III. Implications
       In line with these changes, we need to prepare for four aspects of uncertainty.
       The first is preparation for the uncertainty arising from the reorganization of the international order after Covid-19. Second is preparation for the uncertainty that will result from the deepening and expanding of U.S.-China competition. The third is preparation for new threats that will emerge during the reorganization of the GVC after Covid-19. And fourth, we must prepare for the internal medium- and long-term risks that China revealed in the Covid-19 recovery process.
       Meanwhile, as China is expected to seek changes in its national development strategy to cope with the various impacts of the Covid-19 outbreak, we need to analyze and utilize China’s strategic changes. To this end, first, it is necessary to prepare in advance to utilize China’s strategic changes, which will be included in the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25) of China. Second, it is necessary to ex-pand cooperation with China in the digital economy sector, which will lead the growth of the Chinese economy after Covid-19. Third, it is necessary to actively utilize changes in demand according to China’s new culture and consumption patterns when establishing business strategies toward China. Fourth, efforts should be strengthened to explore China’s domestic market, especially in areas where the transition of industries into domestic demand is expected to proceed quickly after Covid-19. Fifth, it is necessary to devise ways to use China’s newly formed Internet culture after Covid-19 as a channel for public diplomacy and economic diplomacy with China. 
       At the same time, as competition between the U.S. and China in the Asian region is expected to intensify, it is necessary to prepare a plan to simultaneously promote cooperation on the Asian strategy of the two countries. China also has a strategic goal of responding to the trend of deSinicization through economic integration in East Asia and achieving GVC stability. Therefore, while reviewing the meaning of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific and East Asia region, we should play a leading role for the current discussion on economic integration to help expanding market opening of the participating countries and creating a fair and free trade environment. In particular, as the Democratic Party’s Biden won the presidential election, there is a possibility that the United States will return to the CPTPP, so we must come up with a regional economic integration strategy in case the United States will change its economic integration strategy in East Asia.          

  • 신남방지역 주요국의 핀테크 발전과 협력방안: 인도, 태국, 말레이시아, 베트남, 인도..
    Recent Development of Fintech Industry of Five Major Countries of Southeast Asia and South Asia and Policy Recommendation for Korea to Enhance the Future Cooperation

       The spread of the Internet, the introduction of mobile devices, and the development of information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things have had a great impact on the financia..

    Choong Lyol Lee et al. Date 2020.12.31

    India and South Asia
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    Summary
       The spread of the Internet, the introduction of mobile devices, and the development of information technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things have had a great impact on the financial industry. Starting from long-distance non-face-to-face transfer of funds, asset management using artificial intelligence, credit analysis using big data, etc., the financial industry has changed substantially for the past few years and finally, fintech, a combined word of finance and technology, become a common terminology.
       The Korean government recognizes fintech as a major sector of the 4th industrial revolution, and it is currently promoting the fintech industry as a new growth engine for future economic development. In addition, it is implementing several practical policies such as suggesting fintech promotion activation plans and establishing a new organization called Fintech Center Korea. Meanwhile, as fintech industry expands, several problems such as protection of personal information and securing system stability begin to show up, and the government's regulation and supervision in this area has entered a new phase. The 「Electronic Financial Transactions Act」 was created, and the importance of personal information began to be more emphasized.
       This study attempts to analyze the recent development of fintech industries in five major countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and India in Southeast Asia and South Asia and to give policy recommendations for the government of Korea to improve the fintech industry of these countries. For this purpose, newly developed fintech products and business models as well as the financial industry and ICT infrastructure of these countries were examined. Government promotion policies and regulatory issued are given as well.
       It shows several important observations as follows. First, several electronic payment services applying plastic cards or online software have been used as retail payment means for these years. Second, account transfer services through online banking and mobile banking services using the Internet have been provided in most countries. Third, some of the loan-related services in online banking are provided, and securities transactions using the Internet are found to be actively conducted in all countries. Fifth, while fintech companies emerged from the early 2000s, their development speed had been very slow for years and they became active in the late 2010s. Sixth, fintech companies in these countries actively are using financial resource from not only their own countries but also foreign investors to secure investment. Seventh, while Vietnam was the latest to introduce fintech services among these five countries, its development speed was very fast.
       Meanwhile, applying our own definition of fintech indexes to these countries, it is shown that as of 2019, Malaysia and Thailand ranked the top among the five countries with almost similar scores. Vietnam, Indonesia, and India followed in that order. Looking at the changes in each country's index in 2010, 2015 and 2019, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam showed a significant increase during this period, while India and Indonesia did not
       It is highly recommended that Korean fintech companies closely work with local partners if they want to enter the markets of these countries. This is because fintech services are closely related to local finance and payment customs, so it is not easy for Korean companies to penetrate the local market independently. It should be considered that these countries do not have sufficient ICT infrastructure nationwide and they did not have capable human resource. It is advisable that they should take care of differences in market structure, payment infrastructure, customs and government regulations, etc. of each country to select the country and the product to launch there.
       The Korean government and public institutions may implement various supporting policies for Korean fintech companies. For example, programs to promote mutual understanding between Korean fintech companies and local companies can be carried out. Active programs to enhance the cooperation among financial regulatory agencies are also recommended. More specifically, it will be possible to provide on-site support through roadshows, inter-agency workshops, and invitational training of local regulatory agency employees. Also, the government's ODA project for these countries can also be promoted considering that all of these five countries are low-income countries trying to improve financial inclusion.
       Meanwhile, it is very important to reorganize the relevant laws and regulations on Fintech of the New Southern countries or to conduct research projects on them. For example, it may be necessary to review various related laws such as the 「Information Protection Act」 and 「Consumer Protection Act」 necessary for providing fintech services, and the coordination of these regulations can be carried out through the ODA project.
       Finally, an institutional arrangement in charge of these policy action should be established. Currently, their assignments were segmented into several institutions on ICT promoting institutions, export promoting ones, SME developing ones as well as financial service supervising and as a result, it is very difficult to coordinate.

  • 동남아시아 농업분야 개발협력사업 성공요인 분석: 지역사회 개발협력 사례 중심으로
    An Analysis of Success Factors for Agricultural Development Cooperation Projects in Southeast Asia: With a Focus on the Cases of International Cooperation for Community Development

       This study examines success factors and limitations for cases of agricultural development cooperation projects promoted in six Southeast Asian countries - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanm..

    Je Seong Jeon et al. Date 2020.12.31

    Economic relations, Economic cooperation Southeast Asia Ocean
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       This study examines success factors and limitations for cases of agricultural development cooperation projects promoted in six Southeast Asian countries - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar. As evidenced by the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the subsequent Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the sustainability of agriculture becomes the foundation for achieving key goals such as eradicating poverty and hunger and achieving food security. Considering the reality of Southeast Asia where the majority of the population resides in rural areas, agricultural development cooperation is also directly related to efforts to improve the livelihood of local residents and to alleviate the development gap across regions. Recognizing its importance, the Korean government has implemented various types of development cooperation projects by focusing on rural development. Among them, Southeast Asia is a major target region for Korea's agricultural development cooperation. From the total amount of Official Development Assistance (ODA) programs in the field of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries invested in Asia from 2010 to 2018, 82.2% of the funds was used in the Southeast Asia region. Of these, the total amount of support invested in these six countries accounts for 97% of the total support in Southeast Asia. In this regard, this study, which analyzes the cases of six Southeast Asian countries, is expected to provide meaningful implications for improving agricultural development cooperation projects.
       In this study, cases were arranged in a balanced manner corresponding to the strategic goals of the mid-term rural development strategy established by the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA). Two cases were assigned for each type so that the implications of the comparative study could be gleaned. The strategic goals of mid-term rural development strategy established by KOICA are as follows: increasing agricultural output consistently and strengthening marketability, inclusive and sustainable rural development, and conservation of natural resources and production systems of agricultural and fishing villages by responding to climate change. The cases of Vietnam and Laos can be classified into projects related to the goal of increasing agricultural productivity and strengthening marketability. The difference in the two cases is that Vietnam case one is improving the value chain and the other the use of appropriate technology to meet the goals. For inclusive rural development, Cambodia and Indonesia cases were assigned. Cambodia is a typical comprehensive rural development program that has applied the Saemaul Undong(new village movement) model. The case in Indonesia is similar, but is differentiated in that the project focuses more on reinforcing the residents' capabilities to manage village-level corporations. The case of the Philippines and Myanmar can be classified as a project to cope with climate change. The difference is that the Philippines focused on building an eco-friendly agricultural system through agroforestry, while Myanmar focused on forest management.
       This study also included and assigned cases in consideration of diversity among implementing agencies involved in development cooperation projects, in addition to categorizing all projects by strategic objectives of Korea’s agricultural development cooperation into three types as mentioned above. Since the so-called “Busan Declaration,” which aimed to expand and strengthen public-private partnership at the 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness held in Busan in 2011, has been adopted, the extent of participation by the private sector has greatly expanded in international development cooperation in Korea. This trend was also noticeable in the agricultural sector, which is focused by international development cooperation programs in Korea, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of public-private partnership projects and diversification of participants. In response, this study attempts to confirm the effect of private-sector participation by adding project cases led by the private sector in addition to projects directly undertaken by government agencies. Considering the diversity of participants in the private sector, cases were evenly organized into corporations, universities and academic institutions, and civil society organizations. Accordingly, among the cases covered in this study, only Cambodia was a project directly promoted by a government agency (KOICA), and all other cases consisted of projects involving the private sector. In the case of Vietnam, Korean private corporations participated; in the case of Indonesia, university took part; in the case of the Philippines, civil society organization participated; and in the case of Laos, academic organization took part. In the case of Myanmar, in addition to the ODA project carried out by government agencies (KOICA and Korea Forest Service), the project implemented by civil society organizations through the Social Contribution Fund was added as a case of comparative study.
       To hypothesize the factors of success, this study evaluates the performance of each case by comprehensively considering the results of previous studies, the five evaluation criteria of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC), and KOICA's standard performance indicators for rural development and organized a checklist of success factors. Accordingly, the list of success factor checklists prepared in this study has 22 items, which are commonly identified by participating researchers in all cases. It is important to note that the items presented in the checklist are shown in a single table for comprehensive summary and comparative analysis of success factors identified in this study. However, having more items in the checklist does not necessarily indicate that it is a more successful project. It is difficult to expect that a single case will satisfy all items in the checklist as the characteristics of individual project is different and the goals are set differently. Therefore, the comparison table presented in this study should not be used to show on how many detailed items each case encompasses. Instead, it should be used as a reference to identify the following: what factors contributed to the success of the case, how these and other factors are combined, and how well they are implemented.
       This study consists of three parts: introduction, case studies, and conclusion. Chapter 1, an introductory part, describes the purposes and methods of the study, and the composition of each chapter. In Chapter 2, agricultural development cooperation trends in Southeast Asia have been briefly introduced and the relevant previous studies and domestic and international project evaluation criteria have been reviewed to establish hypotheses for the cases subject to study. The results of the review are the items listed in the success factor checklist, and the success factors presented in the case study results of the main body are described around the items identified in this list.
       Chapters 3 to 5, the main body of this paper, are the results of analysis of development cooperation projects conducted in the six countries of Southeast Asia, which are the subjects of this study, classified by Korea's medium-term agricultural development strategy goals. The results of analyzing the outline, major achievements, and success factors of each case have been presented. Chapter 3 deals with the cases of Vietnam and Laos as the project type of “sustainable farm output and marketability.” The “Saemaul Project for Developing Agriculture Value-Chain in Ninh Thuan Province, Vietnam” is the Rural Development Creating Shared Value(CSV) project that aims to increase the income of the poor in rural areas through the CJ-partnership with KOICA to establish an agricultural value chain ranging from production to processing, distribution, and sales through technical education and market development. It was evaluated as an excellent project in that it not only properly set up project components to achieve its goals and enlisted participation of various stakeholders, but also utilized the technology of the enterprises and linked development cooperation with corporate activities. However, this case leaves another lesson, given that the limitations of this type of participation were clear. If a corporate entity participates in the value chain process, improving the market and opening outlets can contribute to the increase in farmers' income. However, it is difficult to ensure sustainable performance if companies do not keep their presence at the final stage of the value chain. In this regard, this case provides a lesson that the mechanism of organizing farmers and encouraging their voluntary participation must be included in the project components, in order for the effectiveness and impact to be a main success factor beyond the efficiency.
       The “Lao-Korea Sustainable Technology Center Project” is noteworthy as it is a case that demonstrates how the utilization of appropriate technology, which has focused on supplying eco-friendly energy sources, can be successfully applied to community development. The key achievement of this case is that the technical limitations of utilizing existing resources of the community were overcome by putting appropriate technology available in the local context. The fact that Korea's academic organizations and local universities in Laos established an Appropriate Technology Center, shared information, trained human resources needed for the projects, and systematically managed the project outcome is considered to be an advantage of cooperation projects initiated by academic organizations. However, by establishing an Appropriate Technology Center alone, it was difficult to create coherent systems such as continuous training for ethnic minorities in mountainous areas, harvesting, marketing, and sales of crops. Nonetheless, it is remarkable that the appropriate technologies were disseminated and applied up to the local community level, aiming to share development benefits with the community and to enhance sustainability of local production.
       Chapter 4 dealt with Cambodia and Indonesia as cases of “inclusive regional development” projects. The study of “Self-Supporting Rural Development Project with Saemaul Undong (SMU)’s Participatory Approach” analyzed the success factors of the New Community Movement Project, which was carried out across 30 villages in Cambodia from 2014 to 2018. In this case, the situational diagnosis and appropriateness of strategy, establishing the foundation for economic self-reliance, institutionalizing the local people's participation, and systematic follow-up management were cited as success factors that contributed to achieving the goal. It was mainly thanks to the fact that the project's plan was established based on a close preliminary investigation after selecting a pilot village with high potential for success through a feasibility study, which actively reflected the residents' demand and opinions in the process of establishing a detailed project plan. The fact that the possibility of economic self-reliance was increased by establishing an agricultural production base, and the project was promoted using the existing village organization was the main driving force that led to the trust and participation of the residents. In addition, the fact that the leading entities made periodic checks, guidance, and evaluation so that the project will not deviate from the original plan and that project budgets were given out differently depending on evaluation results to encourage inter-village competition were an important success factor.
       The “Yogyakarta (Indonesia) Community Capacity Building Project,” introduced as one of the model cases for university-led development programs, is a case in which village corporations are successfully run by the village residents themselves even after the program is over. The achievements of this project is not just limited to economic effects represented by income growth. The more important aspects of this project is that it elicited personal change in the form of the residents' improved self-esteem and self-confidence while at the same time the community-wide impact in the form of camaraderie, trust, and more democratic relationships among the residents. To make sure that previous errors would not be repeated, the entities leading the project readjusted the strategies of follow-up projects. The success of the project is also attributed to the strengthening of the pre-investigation to establish strategies suitable for local conditions, and to the enhancement of women's role and desire to participate in social activities so that women of similar backgrounds can be members of village corporations while creating a system for custom-tailored education and self-reliance. In addition, the fact that the project drew cooperation from local universities, civil society organizations, and local governments was also key to the project's continued performance and success even after the project was completed.
       Chapter 5 analyzes development cooperation projects promoted in the Philippines and Myanmar as cases of projects to cope with climate change. The study of the “Eco-friendly Crop Diversification and Income Increase through Agroforestry in the Philippines” reminds us of the lesson that organizing residents and strengthening their capabilities through education are key to establishing an eco-friendly agricultural production base in the community in a stable manner. The relationship between local universities and the people’s organizations in the Philippines, for which Korean civil society organizations have nurtured over a long period of time, has been the foundation for success. It was mainly thanks to the fact that contents and area of the project was selected based on continuous communication, while the project was monitored step by step to supplement problems. In particular, the following were also important factors in the project: small-scale farmers with low economic standing selected as major subjects of the project, cooperation from local landowners and local governments to secure farmlands needed to practice agroforestry, and the participation of indigenous peoples who used to damage forests due to slashing and burning of fields.
       The study of the “Dry Zone Forest Management Capacity Building Project in Central Myanmar” presented comparative implications by comprehensively analyzing ODA projects conducted by government agencies and follow-up projects carried out by civil society organization. The forest greening project in central Myanmar, where forest degradation is accelerating, can be evaluated as a project that actively accommodated the development needs of a recipient country, given that it was a support project for the forest restoration and management project that the Myanmar government has pursued for a long time. It was found that the forest greening project, which had been promoted four times over the past 20 years, has been successful due to the use of appropriate technology in consideration of the topographical and soil conditions of the area. More importantly, as the project was carried out four consecutive times, the management of existing projects was carried out through follow-up projects. However, these achievements reveal the limitations of Korea's development cooperation projects which are mostly short term. This means that if no subsequent projects are created, sustainability cannot be guaranteed. The Community Forestry model, which was conceived by civil society organizations involved in the project's fourth round but not realized by the ODA initiative, is considered an alternative development model to enhance the sustainability of the project while reducing reliance on ODA. The possibility can be seen in the case of the “Happy Water School” project, which was proposed as a comparative case with the forest greening project promoted by the ODA project, was initiated by the civil society organization through the Social Contribution Fund. Through the achievements and limitations of the projects implemented by the two organizations, this case shows that continuity and connectivity of the projects are important factors in ensuring the sustainability of the development cooperation project. At the same time, this case study suggests that public-private cooperation needs to be promoted more substantially in a way that fully demonstrates the capabilities of civil society organizations that have accumulated empirical knowledge and technologies in related fields and ensures their autonomy.
       Chapters 6, which corresponds to the conclusions, provides a summary of the results of the case analysis from Chapter 3 to 5, as well as policy suggestions and limitations of this study. Within the empirical range of the cases covered in this study, the policy implications and suggestions are largely summarized into the following five. First, even in development cooperation model planed for mobilizing community people such as the New Community Movement project, it is difficult to expect ideal outcomes without understanding the local context. Consequently, the strategies need to be applied flexibly based on in-depth understanding of the local conditions. Cases of this study show that this type of project can be successful only when thorough basic survey is conducted, custom-tailored strategies is designed, and the people participate actively as major actors. The village's willingness to participate can be guaranteed when the implementation plan is established through a thorough preliminary survey, and is referred it back to the people's open discussion. As the Cambodian case testifies, it is also a strategic approach to gradually increase the size of the project as a way to raise the expectation of continuing the project while making the residents experience the effects and benefits of the project in a short period of time.
       Second, in the case of public-private partnership projects, it is necessary to increase their proportion in Korean international development cooperation in the future and encourage the participation of various agents, while respecting their autonomy. The bottom-up public-private partnership approach fits perfectly with Korea's development assistance model given its relatively small budget. The analysis results of the cases of public-private partnership projects introduced in this study showed that private enterprises participate in projects in ways to diversify horizontal networks based on their unique expertise and value contribution. The participation of private enterprises has been a major contributor to market development and value chain improvement. It was found that the participation of local universities provides knowledge and expertise in the local area, as well as the provision of manpower, while contributing greatly to enhancing the sustainability of the project through human resource development. The participation of Korean universities has the additional effect of contributing to the development of talents in Korea. The participation of civil society organizations showed the possibility of enhancing sustainability by projecting their own value orientation into development cooperation. The autonomy of private institutions should be further guaranteed in the future so that these advantages of public-private partnerships can be fully realized.
       Third, it is necessary to review the implementation plans of new and follow-up projects in the direction of extending the project period as much as possible and strengthening continuity and linkage with existing projects. If the project is implemented continuously for a long time, the likelihood of success increases exponentially. Therefore, unless it is obviously unsuccessful, it is necessary to extend the project period. However, in order to increase the effectiveness and sustainability of the project, it is necessary to sequentially increases the project size as described above. It is also necessary to avoid simple extension or continuation of the project period without these considerations. In this regard, when selecting a follow-up project or a new project, it is desirable to check whether the project plan has been established in the direction of enhancing the linkage between the projects by utilizing the infrastructure or various types of resources established through the existing projects, and whether the evaluation and improvement plan is appropriate.
       Fourth, more attention and support are needed for the introduction and application of appropriate technology. Support for appropriate technology considering the level of technology competence, resources that are available or can be mobilized, and local knowledge level of the host country can greatly contribute to enhancing the sustainability of development cooperation. Additional effects of environmentally friendly development that have emerged as an important issue in recent years can also be expected. Considering the agricultural structure of Southeast Asia centered on small farmers, the introduction and application of appropriate technology is even more urgent. An approach that suits the local environment is more desirable to raise the level of local technology rather than simply transferring and transplanting state-of-the-art technologies possessed by Korea.
       Finally, it should be emphasized that people are the decisive actors who hold the success or failure of the development cooperation project. Material and technical support by itself does not bring happiness. All projects are carried out by people. The participation of local residents in the recent international development cooperation literature is important, but the role of those providing development assistance is even more important. The success or failure of the development cooperation project can be clearly determined depending on what competent field managers are deployed and how he/she communicates with local residents. The field orientation that strives to escape self-centeredness, the democratic attitude that listens to opinions from local residents, the connectedness that seeks harmony between the project team and the village's political process, and the adaptability to find and solve problems early on are the virtues required by our development workers. In order to possess these virtues, local knowledge and local communication skills are essential as well as development expertise. Therefore, it is essential for our development assistance programs to include these capabilities as important evaluation criteria in project selection and continuity assessment so that appropriate field managers can be selected. In addition, the achievements of fostering local human resources should be added to the evaluation criteria of development cooperation projects. This is because it is precisely the local talents who can succeed and develop the achievements further even after international development project teams leave the village. To this end, it is necessary to improve evaluation criteria so that long-term and systematic human resource development plans can be included in individual projects, rather than providing resident education only for the period during which the project is undertaken.
  • 미·중 경쟁이 중남미 경제에 미치는 영향과 시사점
    An Effect of US-China Rivalry on Latin America and Its Implication

       Conflicts between the United States and China have been appearing in various forms across many regions; it can be seen in trade, commerce, politics, and diplomacy. In addition, it is likely that the conflicts between ..

    Sungwoo Hong et al. Date 2020.12.31

    Economic relations, International politics United States of America China
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       Conflicts between the United States and China have been appearing in various forms across many regions; it can be seen in trade, commerce, politics, and diplomacy. In addition, it is likely that the conflicts between the two countries intensify as the multilateralism would be threatened and protectionism would emerge in the post-COVID 19 era.
       Latin America is not an exception to this issue of the US-China conflict. In terms of national security, the United States has only option to react sensitively to the growing influence of China in Latin America, considering the geographical proximity between the United States and Latin America. For this reason, varied conflicts between the United States and China occur in Latin America.
       This study investigated the patterns of US-China rivalry that appeared in Latin America and analyzed the effects of this rivalry on Latin American countries in multifaceted ways. In Chapter 2, we examined how the US and Chinese foreign policies against Latin America have changed. Furthermore, we summarized specific policies against Latin America that were implemented under the Trump administration. The fundamental goal of the US policy was to occupy a regional hegemony in Latin America by giving them incentive and pressure. In particular, the Trump administration tended to weigh on Latin America in many sectors such as immigration, infrastructure, and so on. By contrast, Chinese policies against Latin America aim at maintaining cooperative relations with Latin America in the absence of specifics.
       In Chapter 3, we presented several examples of the US-China conflict that were observed in Latin America. This conflict was mostly prominent in the infrastructure sector, in which the United States was likely to press Latin America in order to exclude China from related projects.
       In Chapter 4, we conducted an empirical analysis by focusing on the trade dispute between the United States and China that occurred in 2018. Specifically, we analyzed the impact of the retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on exports of major Latin America countries to United States and China. In addition, we complementarily examined the effect of the trade dispute on the welfare of the Latin American countries with the CGE (Computational General Equilibrium) model. As a result of the empirical analysis, Brazil’s export to China have increased significantly since the imposition of the tariffs, and then the effect has disappeared over time. In contrast, there was no consistent pattern for countries other than Brazil. The impact of the US-China conflict on the welfare of the countries in Latin America was trivial.
       The conflict between the United States and China that occurs in Latin America could be an opportunity for Korean companies that seek to advance into Latin America. The companies may be given an unintended chance as Latin America is faced by US pressure to rule out China from infrastructure sector. Therefore, it would be important to monitor the political position of Latin American countries in terms of seeking opportunities to enter Latin America in the future. 

  • 현안대응자료 요약 모음집(2020 하반기)
    현안대응자료 요약 모음집(2020 하반기)

    KIEP Date 2020.12.31

    Economic outlook, Economic cooperation
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공공누리 OPEN / 공공저작물 자유이용허락 - 출처표시, 상업용금지, 변경금지 공공저작물 자유이용허락 표시기준 (공공누리, KOGL) 제4유형

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