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  • Industrial Policy, Rise of Skilled Labor, and Firm Growth in the Early Stage of ..
    Industrial Policy, Rise of Skilled Labor, and Firm Growth in the Early Stage of Economic Development

    This paper examines the role of education policy in raising specific human capital for industrialization during the period of economic miracle in Korea. As part of the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) drive, the Korean gov-ernmen..

    Sunghun Cho et al. Date 2023.12.15

    economic growth, industrial policy
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    Summary
    This paper examines the role of education policy in raising specific human capital for industrialization during the period of economic miracle in Korea. As part of the Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI) drive, the Korean gov-ernment built technical schools near industrial complexes, resulting in a prompt supply of skilled labor. With practical curricula and training, young and skilled workers were able to enter the new sector. We also document these two patterns by using the Technical School List and the Occupational Wage survey. This government-led education reform led to higher firm-level productivity and growth, which is one of the important aspects explaining the success of the industrial policy. 

    Motivated by historical evidence, we combine the administrative Mining and Manufacturing survey with the Technical School List to study the effec-tiveness of industry-oriented education reform. We incorporate an education layer into the targeted industries under the HCI drive by exploiting the varia-tion in technical school openings at the county level.

    Our results show that plants in treated regions tend to employ and invest more than those in control regions, but value-added and labor productivity are negatively correlated with our interaction terms. This implies that firms in HCI sectors experienced disproportionate growth and should pay higher on-the-job costs for workers while education reform may reduce the overall cost of hiring industry-specific labor. In contrast, non-HCI sector firms ex-hibit a positive correlation with value added and labor productivity. These firms might benefit from the education reform that improved overall quality of skilled workers. Lastly, the effect of education reform was concentrated before the end of the HCI drive period and did not persist after 1980.

    In the era of emerging industrial policy, our paper presents a new mecha-nism that encourages more workers to enter a new sector targeted by gov-ernment-led plans. Our results serve as a starting point for re-evaluating con-temporary industrial policy and underscore the need to consider this addi-tional layer in future policy design.

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  • 디지털 정책과 규제 변화 분석:  Digital Policy Alert 통계를 중심으로
    Analysis on Digital Policy and Regulations: Based on the Digital Policy Alert Database

    Digital policies and regulations are changing rapidly in advanced and major emerging economies. Based on the newly built Digital Policy Alert data, we found 3,876 changes in digital policies and regulations in major countries such..

    Ji Hyeon Kim Date 2023.12.11

    E-trade, electronic commerce
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    Summary
    Digital policies and regulations are changing rapidly in advanced and major emerging economies. Based on the newly built Digital Policy Alert data, we found 3,876 changes in digital policies and regulations in major countries such as US, EU, China, and India. This is the result of governments’ efforts to embrace the digital age and create a fair and stable digital economy. However, we do not have an accurate understanding of digital policies and regulations’ content around the world. This report aims to provide policy implications for our government’s policy making by objectively analyzing the international trends and status of digital policies and regulations and reducing uncertainty about foreign countries. 

    Digital trade, which is the trade of goods and services through digital means, has increased worldwide due to the development of digital technology. It can be divided into Business-to-Customer(B2C) and Business-to-Business(B2B) trade. By 2023 B2C trade is expected to reach $6 trillion and B2B trade $24.4 trillion. Asia, in particular, accounts for a large share of digital trade, accounting for more than 50% of the world’s B2C trade and on average 78% of B2B trade in 2022. Korea’s digital trade in goods is also expanding, and the proportion of its exports to China and Japan is decreasing while that to Europe is increasing.

    According to existing data, such as that from the OECD and EUI, the level of restrictions on digital services trade around the world is generally increasing. If we look at the regulatory environment of digital trade more broadly, there are many restrictive measures, but the level of restriction is not very high. Specifically, the level of openness in e-commerce and intellectual property rights have increased. On the other hand, the level of restriction in infrastructure and connectivity, or data is the highest. The level of restriction in other areas, which includes online advertising ban, local presence requirements, is also increasing. By region, Europe and North America have the most open regulatory environment, while Central Asia and South Asia have the most restrictive regulatory environment. East Asia-Pacific’s regulatory environment is more restrictive than the global average.

    By country, open economies such as Canada, US, Australia, or small countries such as Dominican Republic and Costa Rica, have lower levels of restriction on digital services trade. In contrast, relatively closed emerging economies such as Kazakhstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have higher levels of restriction on digital services trade. China, Russia, India have more restrictive measures on data transfer, and local data storage and processing than other major countries, and they also take discriminatory measures on communications business licenses and e-commerce. US is the most open to data transfer, while Europe and Japan transfer data conditionally.

    According to the Digital Policy Alert, data governance and competition account for the largest share of digital policy and regulatory changes worldwide. The main policy instruments for data governance are data protection, cybersecurity, cross-border data flows, and for competition, unilateral conduct regulation, merger review. Recently, the proportion of other business conditions, and registration and licensing have increased. Their instruments, algorithm design and technical standards for other business conditions, product or service licensing for registration and licensing have became increasingly important. In the policy area of content, changes have increased in user speech rights. In international trade, we see changes in measures such as bilateral and regional agreements and export/import bans. Foreign direct investment and tax are also changing actively.

    The top 10 countries with the most digital policy changes are US, EU, UK, China, India, Australia, Korea, Japan, Russia, and Canada. Their digital policy changes  focus on personal information and information protection, and they also have policies for emerging industries such as AI and crypto assets. Notably, US has more regulations under discussion than adopted or implemented. China and India have relatively more data localization requirements than other countries. Russia has many content-related policy changes, while China and US are active in the registration and licensing area.

    Other business conditions, registration and licensing are policy areas which have recently gained attention in digital policy and regulation. Among them, algorithm design and technical standards (other business conditions), product or service authorization (licensing and registration) are mainly used as policy tools. The aforementioned top 10 countries are seeking cooperation for standardization work concerning new industries such as AI. When it comes to crypto assets, countries adopt rather opposite policies depending on their perspective.

    Korea’s level of regulatory restriction on digital services trade is lower than that of East Asia-Pacific, but it is higher than the global average. Korea’s digital services trade regulations are becoming more similar to Germany and less similar to China. In terms of digital policies and regulations, Korea is discussing various digital policies such as data protection, unilateral conduct regulation etc.

    In conclusion, first, Korea follows the international trend in terms of policy changes in areas such as data governance, other business conditions, competition, but more active discussion on content is needed. Second, international standardization discussions are actively taking place. Korea should be more strategic and base its discussion on the cooperation status of other countries. Third, considering Digital Policy Alert with other existing data will provide a comprehensive picture of digital policies and regulations. Finally, collecting digital policies and regulations by ourselves would be a first step to respond more accurately to changes in digital policy regulation.
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  • 국내 전략산업 투자유치 인센티브 개편 방향
    Reforming Incentive Policies to Increase FDI in Korea’s Strategic Industries

    Foreign direct investment(FDI) in Korea remains at a lower level compared to that of major countries, although the amount of FDI in Korea in 2022 on notification basis exceeded 30 billion USD for the first time in history. And maj..

    June Dong Kim et al. Date 2023.12.08

    subsidy, foreign direct investment
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    Summary
    Foreign direct investment(FDI) in Korea remains at a lower level compared to that of major countries, although the amount of FDI in Korea in 2022 on notification basis exceeded 30 billion USD for the first time in history. And major advanced countries have recently expanded investment incentives to strategic industries such as semiconductors and secondary batteries. Therefore, we need to make a landmark transformation of our FDI incentive policies. In this regard, this study first took a look at the recent trends of FDI in Korea and reviewed the incentive systems for attracting strategic investment in major countries such as the U.S., the EU, Japan, and China. And then it attempted to present policy directions for reforming incentive systems to attract strategic investment to Korea. In particular, it aimed to present the improvement of the cash incentive system as well as the use of specialized complexes for advanced industries and specialized zones for equal opportunity development.

    First, by looking at the recent trends of FDI into Korea (2010~2022), there are more FDI from advanced countries and tax haven countries such as U.S.A., Japan, Singapore, Malta, Netherland than from others. Also, we found more FDI in services industry than in manufacturing industry. Finally, there were more greenfield FDI than M&As.

    Next, we investigated recent incentive systems to attract investment in strategic industries in some key countries. These include the CHIPS and Science Act along with the Inflation Reduction Act of the U.S., and the European New Investment Strategy, InvestEU Program, and European Chips Act in the EU. We also analyzed Japan’s Direct Investment Promotion Strategy toward Japan, Promotion Act of 5G, Semiconductor Fund, and Green Innovation Fund, as well as China’s FDI expansion policy in the manufacturing sector. From this investigation, we confirmed that major countries (ⅰ) operate investment incentive systems without any discrimination between foreign and domestic firms, (ⅱ) provide large amounts of investment subsidies, and (ⅲ) have formed a social consensus that large-scale assistance is necessary to attract investment in strategic industries. 

    Based on these characteristics in major countries, we presented the improvement of cash assistance system as well as the use of specialized complexes for cutting-edge industries and equal opportunity development special zones as policy directions for reforming incentives to attract investment in domestic strategic industries. More specifically, in the case of improving the cash subsidy system, we found that the following measures are necessary; (ⅰ) increasing the budget available for cash subsidies, (ⅱ) increasing the R&D subsidy expenditures in the aspect of software, (ⅲ) and calculating the amount for cash assistance taking into account the quality of employment, not to mention the effect of job creation. Finally, we presented a plan for linking specialized complexes for cutting-edge industries and special zones for equal opportunity development in order to provide unprecedented support for the large-scale investments in strategic industries.
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  • Impact of Temporary Trade Barriers within APEC: Evidence from Korea
    Impact of Temporary Trade Barriers within APEC: Evidence from Korea

    This study uses a detailed product-level data to examine the trade deflection of Korean exports as a result of antidumping (AD) duty impositions. Given that APEC economies account for a large share of Korean exports and AD duty im..

    Seungrae Lee Date 2023.11.30

    APEC, anti-dumping system
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    I. Introduction

    II. U.S. and Chinese AD cases on Korea

    Ⅲ. Estimation strategy and Data

    Ⅳ. Estimation Results

    V. Conclusion

    References

    Appendix
    Summary
    This study uses a detailed product-level data to examine the trade deflection of Korean exports as a result of antidumping (AD) duty impositions. Given that APEC economies account for a large share of Korean exports and AD duty impositions on Korean exports, especially by the U.S. and China, this study focuses on the deflection of Korean export to APEC economies following the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. This study finds robust evidence of Korean export deflection within APEC as a result of the imposition of AD duties by the U.S. and China. Moreover, intra-APEC trade deflection is associated with the type of products involved in the AD duty orders. U.S. AD duties have an impact on the export deflection of intermediate products, while Chinese AD duties have an impact on final products, towards APEC economies.
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  • 사하라이남 아프리카 주요국의 탈탄소 정책과 청정에너지부문 협력 방안
    Analysis on Low-carbon Policies of Major Sub-Saharan African Counties and Cooperation in Clean Energy Sector

    This study analyzed the policies and current challenges in the decarbonization sector, renewable energy sector and the critical minerals sector of Sub- Saharan African(SSA) regions, as well as the market entry status and strategie..

    Sungkyu Lee et al. Date 2023.11.29

    economic cooperation, energy industry
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    Summary
    This study analyzed the policies and current challenges in the decarbonization sector, renewable energy sector and the critical minerals sector of Sub- Saharan African(SSA) regions, as well as the market entry status and strategies of major countries. Through such analysis, recommendations were presented at both government and corporate levels for the enhancement of cooperation in the decarbonization, renewable energy and critical minerals sectors among SSA region.

    At the government level, it is necessary to share policy implementation experiences and participate in multilateral decarbonization cooperative projects in each sector. At the corporate level, it is crucial to develop and implement cooperative projects that can contribute to fostering the renewable energy industry and job creation in SSA region. Furthermore, considering the elevated investment risks, it would be need to explore joint market entry with foreign companies from countries like Europe, United States, China and others that have extensive experience in market entry. In particular, in the critical minerals sector, it is necessary to expand both concessional and non-concessional support for partner countries, strengthen resource diplomacy, strategically utilize mineral security partnerships, and, in the mid-long term, increase support for credit, guarantees and insurance to facilitate the expansion of investment and market entry.
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  • WTO 서비스 국내규제 규범의분석과 시사점
    Analysis of WTO Discipline on Services Domestic Regulations and Its Policy Implications

    On December 2, 2021, seventy WTO members announced the successful conclusion of the negotiations within the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation. The participants acknowledged the conclusion of negotiations on the Refe..

    June Dong Kim et al. Date 2023.11.24

    regulatory reform, trade policy
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    Summary
    On December 2, 2021, seventy WTO members announced the successful conclusion of the negotiations within the Joint Initiative on Services Domestic Regulation. The participants acknowledged the conclusion of negotiations on the Reference Paper on Services Domestic Regulation. As of September 2023, the participants are currently in the process of WTO certification by integrating the disciplines outlined in the Reference Paper as additional commitments in their GATS schedules. After this process is completed, these plurilateral agreements will come into effect. 

    This study aimed to analyze the contents of each article of WTO Services Domestic Regulation, and to present standards for compatibility of domestic regulations with this discipline. Additionally, this study identified domestic best practices related to each article to present how to implement this discipline domestically. In other words, the study presented the general guidelines and detailed checking guides that each official in charge of those domestic regulations should be aware of.

    First, in analyzing each article of WTO Disciplines on Services Domestic Regulations, we reviewed their meanings and then identified major matters to be checked and addressed. Subsequently, we analyzed our cases for implementation of the relevant legislations.

    Next, we outlined the likely economic impacts based on prior research that estimated tariff equivalents of domestic regulations on services. By implementing the WTO Disciplines on Services Domestic Regulations, we can anticipate (i) an increase in consumer welfare (ii) a boost in foreign direct investment due to the improvement of domestic business environment from enhancement of transparency and predictability of domestic regulations (iii) enhanced competitiveness of domestic firms (iv) improved economy-wide productivity by employing efficient services as inputs, and (v) facilitated outbound activities of domestic firms through improved overseas business environment as a result of the implementation of these Disciplines by other WTO members.

    This study has policy implications as it offers comprehensive guidelines and checklists that  every government ministry responsible for domestic regulations. This will prepare them for the implementation of the WTO Disciplines on Services Domestic Regulations after its certification process is complete.

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  • Environmental Non-tariff Measures and Trade in APEC Member Economies
    Environmental Non-tariff Measures and Trade in APEC member economies

    This study examines how environmental nontariff measures (NTMs) affect trade in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies. Using product-level panel data spanning 2009–2020, we find that stringent environmental NTM..

    Hea-Jung Hyun Date 2023.11.20

    APEC, international trade
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    I. Introduction

    II. Environmental NTMs and Trade Patterns in APEC Region

    III. Theoretical Background and Empirical Model

    Ⅳ. Data and Measurement of Environmental NTMs

    V. Empirical Result

    Ⅵ. Conclusion and Policy Implication

    References

    Appendix

    Summary
    This study examines how environmental nontariff measures (NTMs) affect trade in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies. Using product-level panel data spanning 2009–2020, we find that stringent environmental NTMs reduce trade in APEC member economies, whereas no significant effect exists when exporting is destined to non-APEC economies. The trade-impeding effect of NTMs is prominent in exports of dirty goods from economies with high-intensity greenhouse gas emissions through additional adaptation costs to meet environmental standards set by high-income importing countries with the high-intensity imposition of the measure. Results imply that APEC economies need to enhance effective environmental regulations by taking the heterogeneous effects of NTMs on trade across industries and types of measures into account.

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  • 동남아·대양주 유권자들의 보호무역주의 성향 연구와 시사점: 필리핀, 태국, 호..
    Voters’ Attitudes toward Protectionism in Southeast Asia and Oceania: Evidence from the Philippines, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand

    This research analyzes the determinants of voters’ attitudes towards protectionism in four Southeast Asian and Oceania countries (the Philippines, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand) and discusses whether voters’ attitudes tow..

    Nam Seok Kim Date 2023.11.10

    international trade, political economy Southeast Asia Ocean
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    This research analyzes the determinants of voters’ attitudes towards protectionism in four Southeast Asian and Oceania countries (the Philippines, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand) and discusses whether voters’ attitudes toward protectionism are related to their voting behavior. This study utilizes the endogenous trade policy formation theory in international economics to understand how voters’ attitudes toward protectionism are formed. Furthermore, by examining whether voters’ political party support can be explained by their attitudes toward protectionism, this study confirms that changes in each country’s trade policy orientation can be understood in the context of their domestic political-economic background.

    The main findings of this study are as follows: Voters in relatively labor-abundant countries such as the Philippines and Thailand prefer protectionist trade policies as their human capital attainment increases. In contrast, voters in relatively capital-abundant countries such as Australia and New Zealand prefer free trade policies as their human capital attainment increases. These findings align with the theoretical predictions of the Heckscher-Ohlin model-based factor endowment approach. However, since the factor endowment approach is based on the long-run assumption of free labor mobility across industries, it may deviate significantly from reality. To address this limitation, the analysis introduces a specific-factor approach that considers rigidities in the labor movement between industries to test whether there are differences in attitudes towards protectionism between voters in comparative advantage industries and voters in comparative disadvantage industries. The results of the analysis show that the theoretical predictions of the specific-factor approach did not have empirical validity for the voters in the four countries.

    Determining whether individual attitudes toward protectionist trade policies are associated with voting behavior requires a separate analysis. Analyzing the survey data on the party choices of each voter in general elections, the results show that their attitudes toward protectionism do not explain voters’ voting behavior in the Philippines and Thailand. In contrast, voters’ voting behavior in Australia and New Zealand is significantly explained by their attitudes toward protectionism. Australian voters who prefer higher trade barriers are more likely to support the right-wing populist party, the One Nation Party, while New Zealand voters who prefer higher trade barriers are more likely to support the Labour Party.

    From the above analysis, it can be concluded that  trade policy orientations in Australia and New Zealand tend to reflect domestic political-economic backgrounds to a significant extent, while this is not the case in the Philippines and Thailand. As the estimation results of this study suggest, voting patterns in the Philippines and Thailand are strongly influenced by regionalist tendencies. This study concludes by emphasizing the need to refine trade negotiation strategies by taking into account the domestic political-economic situations of these four major trading partners of South Korea.
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  • An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (N..
    An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)

    This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are ..

    Jiyoung Moon et al. Date 2023.10.27

    economic growth, industrial policy
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    Content
    Executive Summary

    Contributors

    1. Introduction
    2. Developing the Framework of Index and Criteria
    3. Calculation of Index
    3.1. Functional Cooperation
    3.2. Political-Security Cooperation
    3.3. Socio-cultural Cooperation
    3.4. Institutionalization
    References

    Appendix: Scoring Scheme for NARCI

    Summary
    This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are functional cooperation, politico-security cooperation, socio-cultural cooperation, and institutionalization, in order to identify the conflict and cooperation situation in the Northeast Asian region. The analysis of economic integration found that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is characterized by a high level of integration in goods trade and regional value chain cooperation, but a relatively low level of integration in intra-regional direct investment and energy supply chain cooperation. The analysis of the political and security cooperation shows that the intensification of U.S.-China competition and the factional confrontation between Korea, U.S., Japan, and North Korea, China, Russia have had a significant impact on regional cooperation in political and diplomatic security. The result shows that the level of integration is low, with all evaluation indicators being negative. The analysis of the socio-cultural integration shows a relatively low level of integration in civil society cooperation and intergovernmental exchanges, a relatively high level of integration in cultural and educational exchanges and study abroad, and a neutral level of integration in information technology cooperation, labor mobility, and the share of tourists in the region. Finally, the analysis of institutional integration shows a relatively high level of integration in the bilateral channels between governments and the institutionalization of regional cooperation in the socio-cultural field, and half of the countries had institutional integration in financial integration and regional cooperation in the economic field. The level of integration in the political and security field was low due to the existence of only multilateral meetings. The analysis of NARCI shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy and socio-culture has been expanding in recent years. However, the low level of political and diplomatic cooperation in the region and related institutional deficiencies are considered to be insufficient to buffer these risks, and efforts are needed to address them.

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  • 동지중해 천연가스 개발 현황과 한국의 협력 방안
    Natural Gas Development in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Its Implications for Korea

    This study explores the current status of natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean region and derives its implications for Korea. Our approach encompassed a thorough review of pertinent literature and statistical data,..

    Kwang Ho Ryou et al. Date 2023.10.20

    economic cooperation, energy industry
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    Content

    Summary
    This study explores the current status of natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean region and derives its implications for Korea. Our approach encompassed a thorough review of pertinent literature and statistical data, and insightful interviews with local government officials and industry experts, conducted through field surveys and seminars.

    The key findings of this study are summarized as follows: First, natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean region has significantly increased its prominence within the global natural gas market. Egypt, holding largest natural gas reserve in the region, now surpasses major natural gas importers of Korea, including Malaysia, Oman, and Indonesia. The total natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean region are estimated at 119.1Tcf, 41.1% more than that of Australia, Korea’s largest natural gas importer. It is estimated that there are 286.2Tcf of undiscovered natural gas resources buried along the Eastern Mediterranean coast. This means that only 29.4% of the region’s total natural gas reserves have been found to date.

    Second, countries in the Eastern Mediterranean have made significant efforts to develop their domestic natural gas resources and to strengthen both domestic and international cooperation. In particular, Egypt, Israel, and Cyprus, major natural gas holders in the region, have been actively pursuing exploration and development and related infrastructure projects to expand their natural gas production and export capacity. Efforts are being made to promote natural gas-related industries such as petrochemicals and hydrogen. In 2019, a regional consultative body for natural gas development, the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, was launched. Since then, through a number of meetings, countries in the region have gathered to discuss specific plans and implement methods for natural gas development. There is also cooperation between Egypt and Israel in the natural gas supply chain, using Egypt’s natural gas liquefaction facilities.

    The weaponization of resources in major energy producers and the expansion of global energy security threats have served as an opportunity to draw more attention to natural gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean. In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2021, the instability of natural gas supply and demand increased significantly, especially around the EU, and natural gas prices also showed a sharp increase in volatility. As the risks of energy supply and demand disruptions have been greatly highlighted, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as a new alternative destination for major energy consumers. In particular, major energy companies in Europe such as Eni and BP are showing great interest and continuing their aggressive entry into the Eastern Mediterranean region.

    We can use the current situation in which the threat to energy security has escalated as an opportunity to promote natural gas cooperation with the Eastern Mediterranean region. First of all, we can contribute to strengthening Korea’s energy security by increasing natural gas imports from the region. Recently, the need to diversify import sources has emerged as concerns about the instability of natural gas supply and demand have increased significantly due to the recent production disruptions in major oil-producing countries caused by geopolitical risks. As infrastructure development in the region is progressing at a rapid pace, it can be said that various entry opportunities are also open for Korean construction companies with global competitiveness in the region. In addition, the Eastern Mediterranean region can be considered a project site for the development of overseas natural gas fields, and participation in local countries’ efforts to develop gas-related industries such as petrochemicals and hydrogen could also provide good opportunities for Korean companies to enter the market.
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