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A Study on the Strategic Industrial Cooperation among Korea and the Eurasian Countries
This study explores possible frontiers for industrial cooperation among Korea, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While regarded as one of major foreign policy agenda, the ‘Eurasia Initiative’ lacks practical programs to a..
HAN Hongyul et al. Date 2015.12.30
Economic cooperation, Industrial policyDownloadContentSummaryThis study explores possible frontiers for industrial cooperation among Korea, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. While regarded as one of major foreign policy agenda, the ‘Eurasia Initiative’ lacks practical programs to achieve the desired goals of the Initiative, mostly due to the external constraints imposed by geo-politics surrounding the Korean peninsular. This motivation of this study is find common interests of these countries in order to provide a list of practical programs for cooperation. It focuses on the area of industrial cooperation between Korea and the major Eurasian countries. The Eurasian countries pursue diversification and upgrading of their industrial structure, specially promoting manufacturing sectors, though they are differ in how they implement their strategies. However, these countries are believed to be far behind other countries with respect to internationalization of industries, which seems to be one of the most important factors for competitiveness and economies of scale. As far as the Korean industry is concerned, international cooperation through fragmentation or production sharing should be considered as an effective strategy to promote SME. In this study, we look into the characteristics of industry structures and industrial policies and major Eurasian countries, then identify policy agenda and specific areas of industrial cooperation with individual countries.
It is well known that industry and trade structure of Eurasian countries are heavily dependent on natural rsources including oil, gas and various minerals. Eurasian countries have made efforts to change the industrial structure by promoting manufacturing sectors. Russia’s industrial policy include various industrial development plans such as ‘Plan for Improvement of Industrial competitiveness’. The Plan aims at promotion of various ‘strategic’ target industriess; aerospace, pharmaceutical and medical, shipbuilding, electronics and wireless electronic industrial development and agricultural development. Russia has activelly employed import substitution policies to support the development plan.
In the case of Kazakhstan, the government has also introduced industrial policy measures in order to strengthen its manufacturing basement. The main implementing institutions are ‘National Agency for Technological Development’,‘Investment Fund of Kazakhstan’and‘Development Bank of Kazakhstan’. Through these institutions, Kazakhstan government channel its development funds. Considering its policy focus, this study identified the major areas of cooperation including petrochemical, chemical, electricity, machine building, and medical supplies. Uzbekistan also has a primary sector driven industry such as agriculture, gold and energy. It has as highly closed economic system under strong state control.
Uzbekistan economy is vulnerable to fluctuations of international commodity prices, which plays negatively against FDI. Just like other Eurasian countries, Uzbekistan pursues diversification of its industry sturcte by promoting the manufacturing sector. Uzbekistan government announced many medium-run industry development programs for industrial competitiveness and sustainable development.
The main purpose of the programs is focused on development of machinery, oil and gas, petrochemical and chemical, textile, food processing industry and agriculture, localization, infrastructure development, energy saving etc. Recently Korea faces economic structural problems such as ‘growth without employment’ and ‘decline of growth potential’. In order to overcome these structural problems, the role of SMEs has been highlighted, in that SMEs cover more than 99% and 86% respectively in terms of the number of enterprises and the rate of employment. Nevertheless SMEs in Korea has special features, which are they are mostly based on domestic demand and linked to large enterprises or conglomerates in terms of supply and demand relation.
Korea’s conglomerates have rapidly entred into ‘global supply chain’, and global economic recession makes them face a slump in exports. These situation tells us SMEs needs to converse their domestic demand basis business to export basis. In this sense, the government policies of supporting SMEs in Korea have mainly focused on strengthening the exporting capabilities of SMEs. However, this research argues the government policy should be transformed and new strategies need to be set up. This research suggests industrial cooperation between Korea and Eurasian countries, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. For this, a new modality for cooperation like ‘TIDA’ needs to be further developed beyond the existing system like FTAs which focus on market opening. -
The Changes in the Industrial Structure and Competition in the Domestic Market in India
The rapid growth of the Indian economy has recently led to a rising interest among other countries regarding the sustainability and direction of India’s economic emergence. Its growth has provided an incentive for major economic ..
LEE Soon-Cheul and KIM Wan-Joong Date 2015.12.30
Competition policy, Economic cooperationDownloadContentSummaryThe rapid growth of the Indian economy has recently led to a rising interest among other countries regarding the sustainability and direction of India’s economic emergence. Its growth has provided an incentive for major economic powers such as the USA, Japan, China, EU etc. to enter the Indian market and expand their trade volume and investment with India.
Consequently, such increases in exports and investment from other countries have spurred changes in the industrial structure of India. Because of the recent increase in the market share of other countries in India, Korean firms in India now face higher competitive pressure in the Indian market. This necessitates better, diverse strategies in order to respond to the changes occurring in the Indian economy and the rising competition in the Indian markets.
Considering these issues, we begin the paper by analyzing the structural changes of the Indian economy and competition over India’s market. Then in the second chapter, we analyze the changes of industry, export and import, and competition in terms of market share. The results can be summarized as follows: First, the share of service compared to that of manufacturing has increased, implying that India’s economy has grown in parallel with service-oriented industries.
We also found that ‘center of gravity’ of manufacturing in India has shifted from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries. Second, while exports have had a major role in India’s growth, the amount was smaller in relative terms to those of other developing countries. It implies that India’s economy depends more on the domestic market than trade. Third, India depends more on private consumption than fixed capital formation or other similar aspects, with respect to the determinants of aggregate demand.
Fourth, the major industries have experienced structural changes, as the share of textiles and its products have decreased and those of other manufacturing, especially electrical and optical equipment, have increased in the exports. As for imports, the ratio of other manufacturing, basic metals and fabricated metal, chemicals and related products, and electrical and optical equipment have increased. Fifth, the ratio of intermediate goods is higher than that of final goods in terms of the production process.
It means that entry strategies of Korean firms need to focus on intermediate goods. Sixth, even though the major trade partner for India is the USA, China’s share in the Indian market has undergone a significant increase. On the other hand, the import ratio of EU has decreased. Seventh, in measuring the effect of creation of value-added from major countries that export to India, USA is still the most influential. However, its ratio has been declining quickly, while there has been rapid growth on the part of China, meaning China has become the most important country for India in terms of trade.
In the 3rd chapter, the changes within the domestic market and promising industries in India are identified. First, we have identified chemicals and related products, basic metals and fabricated metals, electrical and optical equipment, machinery, and transport as the most promising industries in India in view of growth rate and size of the domestic market and imports. In the 4th chapter, the competition structure of major countries compared to Korea in the said five industries is analyzed.
The results show that Korea has lost its competitive edge vis-a-vis China and EU 15 in those industries, even though it still holds advantages over USA, Japan and ASEAN. In Chapter 5, we provide several political implications for the Korean government and companies in need of economic cooperation with India. First, the Indian economy depends more on its domestic market than exports, and has grown alongside industries that are heavily engaged in import and investment.
Thus, Korean firms need to focus more on the Indian domestic market, in addition to formulating proper entry strategies. Second, capital-intensive industries will claim a greater proportion of the Indian economy because the share of labor-intensive industries has been reduced and that of capital-intensive industries have recently experienced rapid growth. It implies Korean firms’ strategies for entry and economic cooperation strategies need to focus on capital-intensive industries.
Third, the high utilization ratio of most industries shows that the strategies are also necessary for the establishment of bases of production and entry into manufacturing industries. Fourth, a strategy is also needed for expansion of trade for import-oriented industries. Fifth, more strategies in response to China’s expansion in India’s market is imperative, given the aggressive entry of numerous Chinese products into the Indian market.
Sixth, the entry strategies at the industry level are needed, considering the increased competition with major countries in India’s market. Finally, Korea needs to enter the infrastructure sectors where the Indian government has recently invested heavily. -
Indian Modi Government’s Economic Development Policy and Implication for Cooperation between Korea and India
The current government of India is pushing ahead with a series of economic reform policy, named ‘Modinomics’ after its chief executive, focusing on high growth and being business-friendly. Modinomics emphasizes the virtuous circ..
CHO Choongjae et al. Date 2015.12.30
Economic reform, Industrial policyDownloadContentSummary정책연구브리핑The current government of India is pushing ahead with a series of economic reform policy, named ‘Modinomics’ after its chief executive, focusing on high growth and being business-friendly. Modinomics emphasizes the virtuous circle of investment that promote employment and consumption, which induces additional investment. The Indian government has been concentrating on improving the business environment through easing or removal of various regulations related to investment, and also establishing a reliable and efficient leadership. Especially, the government of India has placed a priority on attracting private and foreign investment into development of infrastructure and promoting manufacturing sector, based on key policies of Modinomics such as the ‘Smart City’ and development of the Industrial Corridor, and finally, the “Make in India” campaign.As a part of his increasingly active ‘sales diplomacy,’ Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, has visited several countries, including Japan and China; holding summit meetings with its leaders and receiving promises of massive investment. Meanwhile, although India’s manufacturing ratio to GDP is approximately half that of Korea, its growth rate in the sector is fastest among emerging countries and advancements in manufacturing structure is also progressing swiftly. The ratio of registered manufacturers employing more than 10 workers ratio to GDP has increased by 2.8 times, from 3.7% in 1950/51 to 10.6% in 2013/14, and the ratio of non-traditional registered manufacturing such as petrochemical and automobiles, etc. to GDP increased to 75% in 2007/08 from 39% in 1950/51. Also, elasticity of employment in private manufacturing is also rising at a rapid pace, though overall elasticity of employment is decreasing.Investment into infrastructure has been increasing after the conclusion of the 11th 5-year development plan (2007-2012), as the ratio of investment into infrastructure ratio to GDP initially crossed the 5% mark during 10th5-yeardevelopmentperiod, and subsequently recording 7.2% and 8.2% respectively during 11th and 12th 5-year development periods. However, it would take considerable time for India to emerge as a world class manufacturing hub like China because current investment ratio of India is still only around half that of China.After Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected in May 2014, India’s economic cooperation with Japan and China has been enhanced significantly. The Indian government received promises for investments of 35 billion and 20 billion dollars, respectively, from Japan and China. Japan and China are also pushing forward development of 11 and 2 industrial zones, respectively, for their national companies and are also actively involved in development of a rapid transit railway and a ‘smart city.’ Especially, Japan has already completed a feasibility study into operation of Shinkansen-type train, and several projects for the creation of a DMIC-based smart city projects are also in progress. Also, it is expected that nuclear cooperation agreement, which would mean increased opportunities for Japan to participate in the development of nuclear power generation in India, would be signed between Japan and India at the India-Japan summit planned for the second half of 2015. Japan’s investment into India showed a dramatic increase starting in the late 2000s and as of 2015, its accumulated amount is more than 10 times in comparison with Korea. This represents a direct threats for Korean firms in the Indian market, and it would jeopardize their chances for pre-occupancy in a country widely expected to become ‘the Next China.’. It is amidst such a background that this report places great emphasis on the strategic importance of India. Considering the ongoing slowdown of economic growth in China, it is necessary to enhance cooperation with India. Also, in order to overtake the gap between Korea and Japan in terms of economic cooperation with India, it is urgent that strategies be established for expediting such cooperation.Also, development of specific and concrete projects and strategies by make good use of the 10 billion dollars available, including the 1 billion dollars of EDCF funds as agreed to at the Korea-India submit on May 2015 must be undertaken with great urgency.This research report suggests development of a ‘Korean Industrial city’ as the new economic cooperation project with India. It dovetails neatly with key policies of Indian government, namely their focus on promotion of manufacturing, development of infrastructure and industrial corridors. Also, Korea can take advantage of its extensive experience and knowhow regarding development, including those for industrial cities, new towns, innovative cities, administrative cities, etc. Development of a ‘Korean Industrial city,’ in particular, would provide a marvelous opportunity to promote investment of Korean firms into India.To minimize development risk, as many stakeholders should participate as possible. Especially, participation of firms who are specialized and well-suited for entry into manufacturing-oriented new towns, along with their affiliated and cooperating firms is needed. In addition, government, public and private sector, financial institutes of both India and Korea also should participate. Development of manufacturing-oriented new towns based on cooperation with large firms and cooperative firms can simultaneously minimize investment risks, such as vacancy problems. By utilizing the total of 10 billion dollars of infrastructure development fund including 1 billion dollars from EDCF, along with KSP based project, such activities as Feasibility study, building master plan and urban infrastructure, organizing related institution and transferring operating knowledge can proceed smoothly and efficiently with minimum risk.In order to develop ‘the Korean Industrial city’ efficiently and expeditiously, related policies must be prepared and formulated beforehand. First, of these preparations involve selecting a state and city, followed by negotiations with relevant organizations and agencies. Especially, cooperative involvement of cities should start at the very beginning, as the development plan is being conceived, so that there would be greater possibility of securing ‘high return’ cities and regional projects in advance. Although some countries have already established themselves in 15~16 cities, there are still many opportunities available as 20 new cities are selected and provided with budgets annually.Also, due to the difference in fiscal conditions and willpower in connection with development, and awareness of land acquisition by the state, selection of target city should proceed carefully. So far, it is the most reasonable to consider 6 states included in DMIC project as a prior selection. The said list of 6 states include Gujarat, Maharashitra, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajastan, and Madhya Pradesh. Other states that can be considered in addition are Punjab, and Andhra Pradesh.Second, it is important to organize a consortium consisting of firms moving into industrial zones in combination with government, public and private sector, financial institutions, and international organizations. Especially, due to the lack of experience of Korean firms in overseas project involving investment development, the government and public organization should communicate the necessity for such projects to all actors, and create a favorable atmosphere for participation. Furthermore, they should lead the way in building the consortium through cooperating actively with firms that move into new cities and industrial zones.Most of all, a system needs to be organized that can drive development projects forward by searching for target cities or states, and build a consortium step by step. And discussions for organizing enforcement system should begin where government and public sector must first provide support for related consultative groups, followed by formation of a consultative group that brings together large and small-medium sized firms, and financial institutions. It is expected that attracting participation of firms would be relatively easier considering that 10 billion dollars, including 1 billion dollars from the EDCF, is available as development funding.Lastly, strategy of developing projects of reasonable scale, focusing on high quality-low cost industry oriented smart city and taking advantage of Korea’s experience in short-term development, is necessary. This strategy offers a practical direction where Korea can differentiate itself from massive development models of Japan and China, and also spread out to other states and cities using the Korean industry-oriented smart city. -
Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies Collected Papers I : South-East Asia
Date 2015.12.30
Competition policy, Economic relations -
Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies Collected Papers II : Russia,Eurasia
Date 2015.12.30
Competition policy, Economic relations, Trade structure -
Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies Collected Papers IV : Middle East, Africa, Turkey, Eastern Europe
KIEP Date 2015.12.30
Competition policy, Economic relations -
An Analysis of Private Sector Development(PSD) in Africa and Opportunities for the Korea-Africa Development Cooperation
While Africa’s economic performance since the 2000s has indeed been a highly notable success, it has not managed to solve the problem of poverty as such economic success has not translated into job and income creation. The Africa..
PARK Young-Ho et al. Date 2015.12.30
Economic development, Economic cooperationDownloadContentSummary정책연구브리핑While Africa’s economic performance since the 2000s has indeed been a highly notable success, it has not managed to solve the problem of poverty as such economic success has not translated into job and income creation. The African economy is still trapped within the confines of a monocultural economy, relying on an inefficient system built on a limited inventory of primary goods; it is not only failing to produce added value but also suffering from de-industrialization with the aim of settling into the normal process of economic turnabout still far on the horizon. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), an international initiative to eradicate poverty, are nearing their conclusion in 2015 after starting in 2000, and contrary to the initial expectations, the lack of tangible effects on Africa has given weight to the argument that big changes to the paradigm of aid giving are inevitable.
Nearly 15 million young people join the job market in Africa every year but the industries’ absolute lack of capacity to assimilate these people has resulted in youth unemployment levels reaching near-crisis levels. The private sector is arguably the most effective sector in terms of contribution to the eradication of poverty, and job creation through private sector is increasingly seen as the new paradigm of international development cooperation. Development cooperation has hitherto been focused on social developments like education or public health; recently, however, the emphasis has increasingly shifted to economic development through the development of the private sector, and from it, the goal to eradicate poverty. Stemming from this context, this study is about private sector development (PSD) in Africa, which is a sector of increasing importance and necessity as a target of development cooperation.
This study aims to propose viable options for an increase in the variety and effectiveness of development cooperation efforts being undertaken by Korea. The private sector and poverty can be said to be directly linked to each other in that the private sector can be said to be the most effective agent in the eradication of poverty, either through a microeconomic approach (jobs → increase in income → alleviation of poverty) or a macroeconomic approach (increase in tax revenue → increase in public investment such as education or infrastructure → increase in productivity or the capacity of the poor). Many nations in Africa have already established national visions of achieving middle-income group status by 2025, and to realize this, economic development must be attained through PSD. The private sector―being a practical leading agent of economic transformation, increase in productivity, and added value through the strengthening of private firms―can be said to be of paramount importance in bringing about economic development.
In this aspect, this study first reviewed the status and characteristics of the private sector in Africa and analyzed its details and limitations from various angles. Next, this study provided qualitative and quantitative analyses of the significance of support to the PSD of Africa with a focus on job creation and increase in income. Afterward, the status and characteristics of PSD support from various donor nations were analyzed, with implications for Korea as well. Finally, priorities for Korean cooperation with Africa were drawn from the exploration of needs in Africa and the capability of support from Korea. Co-operative options for individual items were presented as well. The summary of chapters, thus, would be as follows: Chapter 2 analyzes the status and characteristics of the private sector in Africa from multiple angles and defines the structural limitations that prevent further development of the private sector. Also, the role and importance of the private sector in bringing about inclusive growth, such as job creation, and change in economic structure, is highlighted as well as its role in development cooperation. The private sector in Africa can be said to be the “engine” that drives the growth of the economy as 80% of gross production, 67% of gross investment, 75% of gross credit, and 90% of employment all stem from the private sector. However, the private sector in Africa is currently incapable of propelling the development of its countries’ national economy as it suffers from a number of problems including lack of productivity and competitiveness.
Most private firms in Africa are micro-enterprises, barely operating on a subsistent level within the informal sector. With this, most of the poor in Africa work in microenterprises, which are usually small-scale enterprises with less than ten employees, often made up of family members or relatives. Nevertheless, the private sector plays an important role in the national economies of African countries. While small-scale enterprises (including micro-enterprises) contribute only a small part to gross production, the sheer number of these enterprises means that they play the greatest part in job and income creation. Factors that deter the growth of the private sector in Africa range from financial exclusion to lack of infrastructure, deep-rooted corruption, excessive corporate regulation, and the emigration of a professional workforce. However, the prospect of PSD is not always hopeless. In fact, the rampant problems in Africa can be said to present an abundance of opportunities.
In Chapter 3, a cross-sectional analysis is conducted to assess private sector development (PSD) quantitatively and the effect of PSD on per capita GDP and unemployment rate focusing on inclusive growth in Africa. By considering inclusive growth with the distinctive features of Africa’s PSD such as the informal sector, PSD is defined more broadly than simply the enhancement of investment climate and business environment, and the purpose of Chapter 3 is to assess PSD and areas of focus for PSD in Africa; furthermore, inclusive growth is considered with small business ownership, financial system inclusion, and intermediation of business investments. The sources of data are The Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2015 and The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015 of the World Economic Forum along with “Informality and Development” by La Porta and Shleifer(2014). The analysis employs a linear structural equation model to account for the endogeneity of GDP per capita and unemployment rate, and an unstructured covariance matrix is assumed to reflect complicated relationships among selected variables. The results of analysis indicate that, in Africa, small business ownership is the only significant factor of inclusive growth that causes high income levels and low unemployment rates.
Provided that the model specification is correct, we can conclude that small business ownership should be considered a priority in Africa’s PSD. Higher income level is related to stronger technological readiness and larger market size, and lower employment rate has relationships with more higher education and training and more efficient labor markets. Yet the employed model has several limitations as follows: the number of observations is too small and standard deviations are fairly high; due to the limited inclusive growth indicators, panel data are not available, thus long-term analysis is not allowed; selected independent variables are indicators obtained from numerous sources, so correlations among variables are hard to determine; and a supposed unstructured covariance matrix, due to the high complexity of indicators, might cause weak validity of the inference of the chosen model. Variables including financial inclusion, informal sectors, infrastructure, and social security as focus areas of PSD in Africa, therefore, should be considered to achieve higher income level since the aforementioned variables show correlations with GDP per capita in diagnostic scatter plots.
Chapter 4 analyzes the approaches, policies and practices of private sector development for Africa in the cases of three bilateral donors―the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States―in order to draw policy implications for the Government of Korea. In terms of intervention sectors and themes, the three donors had commonality in PSD work encompassing macro approaches for regulatory and policy reform, mid-level interventions for market development, and micro-level support to micro- and small-sized enterprises with a limited level of differences. All three donors had the whole-of-government PSD strategies stating guiding principles, purposes, and areas of intervention.
Highlighting the issue of fragmentation and lack of co-ordination among various aid agencies and ministries in PSD interventions of Korea, it was advised to first design a government-wide PSD strategy including a results framework and budget allocation plan. It was recommended to then incorporate this PSD strategy into the upcoming Mid-term ODA Policy for 2016-2020. Drawing upon the experience of Germany, diversifying PSD approaches was emphasized depending on the development status and fragility level of partner countries. As Korea’s African priority countries―Ghana, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Senegal―consist of nations at different stages along the developmental path of private sector development, it was stressed that the design of PSD approaches and programs should be diversified for each country and reflected in Country Strategy Papers. It was also outlined that each of the three donors has PSD approaches focusing on their own strengths and experiences. For instance, the United Kingdom has an advanced financial industry focus with support for financial inclusiveness whereas Germany, with a strong Technical and Vocational Education System, emphasizes linking job creation and private sector development; and the United States, with competitive market mechanism, has a strong public and private partnership scheme.
In that context, Korea, drawing upon its own development experience, could consider a focus on appropriate technology, industrial zone development, and human resource development for PSD in Africa. Chapter 5, the core part of this study, discusses the priorities and options for cooperation between Korea and the private sector in Africa, based on the discussions and results of the previous passages. While Korea’s PSD support to African countries remains limited, the recent growth of its importance has led to recommendations for cooperation in four areas: entrepreneurial support, industrial complex development, professional or industrial workforce development support, and agricultural development. These areas are further elaborated as follows: First, entrepreneurial support is a viable possibility. Entrepreneurial boom remains active in Africa, perhaps to a greater degree than in any other place; however, the success rate of new businesses remains low because of various factors such as inadequate entrepreneurial support. From Korea’s point of view, providing entrepreneurial support to African countries may seem slightly far-fetched but the example of Rwanda shows that entrepreneurial support is a highly feasible option. African countries, having a drastically different context compared to Korea, necessitate above all an entrepreneurial support tailored to the local environment and entrepreneurs. Such entrepreneurial support can be said to be centered on “demand-centered technological development,” and as such, entrepreneurial support tailored to each of the target nations in Africa should take into consideration the ease of usage by locals and the feasibility of maintenance and continued development through the usage of appropriate technology.
The list of appropriate technology can be primarily drawn from a survey of the local populace, and a primary survey should be followed by an “appropriate technology database (D/B),” which then should be shared with relevant organizations. This database should involve the participation of not only the government aid agencies but also as much of the other actors as possible such as the local Korean population, corporations (local branches), nongovernmental organizations, social enterprises, and academia. This database can then be used as an important source of future entrepreneurial support and development cooperation at the grassroots level.
Second, the construction of industrial complexes should be a consideration. African countries’ popularity as an investment option for the light industry, such as textiles and clothing, has been on the rise, and coupled with the rise in interest of Korean firms, it is enough to warrant the need for light industrial complexes to be built through a public?private partnership (PPP). Considering the various circumstances of African countries and the lack of experience on the part of Korea, small- to medium-scale urban industrial complexes should be prioritized instead of large-scale industrial complexes. In this respect, funding is one of the most important issues. Funding should be based on a joint venture between Korean aid agencies (i.e., Korea International Cooperation Agency, known popularly as KOICA, Korea Eximbank, etc.) and enterprises (both public and private), with the possibility of financial cooperation with multilateral development banks (MDBs), such as the World Bank, the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Multi-lateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), or the African Development Bank (AfDB), or co-financing with bilateral development banks. The industrial complexes themselves can focus on the light industry, which has greater demand in the development process, i.e., with greater job creation and import substitution effects and the possibility of being integrated into the global supply chain. Some consideration of light industry areas can be textile, apparel, agro-processing, detergent, plastic (consumer and industrial), plywood and furniture, paper, and agricultural machinery and equipment. The demand for these products in Africa is constantly on the rise because of the increase in income and changes in living conditions; however, the lack of a manufacturing basis means that most of these products are imported. Technological transfers should be accompanied by psychological initiatives akin to the example of Saemaul Undong, or New Community Movement, motivating the workers to “work hard” and minimizing product defects through the “3-P Movement” (precision, probity, perfection), thereby raising the competitiveness and productivity of the firms through the “New Enterprise Movement.” Third, professional and industrial workforce development should be included in the support package. The primary education system in African countries has managed to achieve astounding levels of success through initiatives such as the MDGs, but tertiary and vocational education have not yet achieved nearly the same level of success. The level of higher education (especially tertiary education) remains low among the populace, and even the existing higher education institutions suffer qualitatively, causing alarming levels of job mismatch. Vocational education suffers from the same ailments. While various vocational programs are churning out a constant stream of trainees, some statistics indicate that the percentage of personnel with actual skills in demand by the corporations hover barely around 1% of the total. These observations indicate that Korean co-operative efforts should prioritize educational support to strengthen the basis and the qualitative capability of the workforce and ultimately resolve the job mismatches that plague the job market. Korean development cooperation in this regard has hitherto focused on hardware-based support, providing buildings to house vocational schools, or educational materials.
However, future endeavors should shift focus to demand-driven or market-oriented modes of cooperation, with the goal of reducing the discrepancy in the labor market. Any attempts to solve the discrepancy between the workforce supply and demand should focus on the synchronization of industrial demand (labor demand) and workforce supply (labor supply), and this attempt should be based on a precise survey of what technological skills are currently in demand by the industrial base. Such a survey can be followed by the determination of labor demand per individual industries (or sectors), which, in turn, can serve as basic data in formulating the blueprints of educational or vocational training policies. The magnitude of this task makes it unsuitable for a single aid organization to undertake it on its own and instead a partnership involving the government agency of that nation, or the AfDB, or aid organizations from developed nations could be considered. Other options for alleviating the job mismatch can include providing support to educational capabilities through partnerships between the universities, tailored education programs according to industrial development stages, and implementing national skill qualifications.
Fourth, support can be provided to realize a value chain in agriculture. African nations have abundant, farmable land, but the lack of infrastructure has resulted in the demand for agricultural goods surpassing the supply. Investments made on a massive scale are necessary to achieve a tangible increase in agricultural production, but neither poor farmers nor governments of the nations are able to provide such investments. Hence, agricultural development support could focus on developing agro-industrial complexes by establishing a locus of development in a certain area and focusing on the development in that area and thereby realizing a value chain in agriculture. The ultimate aim of an agro-industrial complex is to realize an economy of scale and value chain (increase in productivity → storage/processing → selling) and through it create added value, and such options could prove to be a suitable co-operative model considering the agricultural status of African countries and their needs. Such agro-industrial complexes should be focused on areas that enjoy superiority in market access, considering the situation of most African countries at present (especially the lack of infrastructure and, consequently, the isolation from the market). These projects should be preceded by an increase in productivity through seed developments and fertilizer provisions. Korea has a number of technologies regarding food crops, fruit and vegetables, and dairy farming, and has provided these technologies to developing nations as part of its development cooperation efforts. Agricultural storage areas and processing plants could also be an area of support.
The absolute lack of processing plants or storage sites often results in the harvested crops being thrown away in Africa, resulting in levels of postharvest loss (PHL) reaching up to 30%?50% of the total production. Next, support could also be provided in agricultural or rural development capabilities. To ensure sustainable development, psychological initiatives, such as diligence, self-help, cooperation, and a sense of ownership are equally important to material provisions or support. In order for comprehensive development projects, such as the agro-industrial complex, to successfully take root in the area, voluntary involvement of the local populace is of great importance in ensuring this goal. The experience of Saemaul Undong can prove to be instrumental in providing additional support through training rural leaders and organizing the populace. This study has narrowed down the prospective options for development cooperation into four areas, with the goal of providing a definite option of development cooperation in mind, but the size of the discussion has regrettably resulted in a surface-level theoretical exploration of policy options. However, this study can be said to be a pioneering work in PSD cooperation in Africa, and successive studies are anticipated to capitalize on the basis of this study to achieve greater scale and utility in the future. Conclusions drawn from this study can be applied to co-operative efforts between Korea and the designated target nations to achieve greater economic success and, in turn, impact poverty eradication. -
A Study on Japan's Regulatory Reform in the era of low growth
This report analyzes the Japan’s regulatory reform, which constitutes the core of the Growth Strategy of Abe Cabinet, to present policy implications toward the Korean government. Chapter 2 examines the significance of social regu..
KIM Gyu-Pan et al. Date 2015.12.30
Economic reform, Regulatory reformDownloadContentSummary정책연구브리핑This report analyzes the Japan’s regulatory reform, which constitutes the core of the Growth Strategy of Abe Cabinet, to present policy implications toward the Korean government. Chapter 2 examines the significance of social regulation reforms conducted by the Koizumi Cabinet in the early and mid-2000s and figures out that the regulatory reform of the Abe Cabinet is composed of ‘General’ regulatory reform, regional-level regulatory reform, and enterprise-level regulatory reform. Chapters 3 and 4 examine the progress made in these three types of regulatory reforms. And Chapter 5 analyzes the regulatory reforms of the Korean government in terms of the framework of regulatory reform in Abenomics. Chapter 2, “The Development Process of Japan’s regulatory reform” outlineswhy the Koizumi Cabinet emphasized social regulation reform as a policy tool to overcome low growth. The results can be summarized as:First, since the early 2000s, the government became aware that the reform of social regulations with strong economic characteristics, prevailed in agriculture, medical and welfare, education and jurisdiction areas was essential to revitalize the markets. However, they did not simply intend to deregulate or abolish the regulation but to transform the regulations, which were arbitrary in nature, to Ex post facto regulation or rule-based regulation. Second, regulatory reforms of the Abe Cabinet focus mainly on three sectors:medical and health care, employment and agriculture which followed up on reforms of the Koizumi cabinet. The government strived to reform several areas in each sector, for example, expanding the scope of mixed medical treatments (kongoshinryou: A combination of insured and uninsured medical treatments) and allowing retail and online sales of OTC (Over-the-Counter) drugs in the medical sector, improving worker dispatch system in the employment sector, and allowing enterprises to buy farmland in the agricultural sector.Third, the regulatory reform presented in Abenomics has promoted the regional and enterprise levels of regulatory reforms as social experimentation. The National Strategic Special Zone system has been introduced as a regional-level reform to make up for the weaknesses of the general regulatory reform such as difficulties in reaching a consensus among stakeholders. And in the enterprise-level reform, the government promoted the Corporate Special Regulatory Exemption system (Kigyouzissyoutokurei seido) which introduces special ordinances and enforcement acts rather than a full revision of the law, in order to effectively support the companies’ new business plans.Chapter 3, “The Japanese government’s regulatory reform(1): General regulatory reform” examines regulatory reform in medical care, employment and agriculture, selected as major areas for regulatory reform of the Abe Cabinet. The results are as follows:First, in the medical sector, its main achievements would be allowance of online sales of OTC drugs, improvement of the government approval system on regenerative medical products, expansion of the scope of mixed medical treatments, and permission of the establishment of medical corporations in the form of holding companies, and so on.Second, regulatory reforms still follow from the existing regulatory framework that protects permanent employees and restricts hiring of temporary workers, and has been criticized as main contributors to inflexibility of the labor market. Third, in the agricultural sector, the government revised the Agricultural Land law to expand the farmland ownership by enterprises via agricultural production corporations. However, the revision of the law in August 2015 only raised the investment limitation for agricultural production corporations owned by enterprises to 50 percent, and there are still institutional limitations for enterprises to become a real owner of farmlands.Chapter 4, “The Japanese government’s regulatory reform(2): regional-level and enterprise-level regulatory reforms”, analyzes the National Strategic Special Zone system as the regional-level regulatory reform, and the Corporate Special Regulatory Exemption system and the system to Remove Gray Zone as the enterprise-level regulatory reform. The results can be summarized as:The characteristics of the National Strategic Special Zone system are; firstly, it has well equipped with centralized implementation system-the Advisory Council which is under the Prime Minister’s direct supervision. Secondly, it adopted a batch method which lists the provisions for regulatory exemption actions on the National Strategic Special Zone Law enacted in December 2013. Thirdly, it selectively applies regulatory exemption actions that reflect regional and industrial comparative advantages of each zone. Its tangible achievements-urban renewal projects in the Tokyo zone, development of the medical industry in the Kansai zone, and corporate entry in agricultural sector in Niigata and Yabu zones-should be acknowledged.In the enterprise-level regulatory reform, despite the government’s goal to support creating new businesses in new growth engine industry, the application of the Corporate Special Regulatory Exemption system for Japanese enterprises still falls short of their expectations.Chapter 5, section one of “The current state and tasks of regulatory reform, in Korea” analyzes general regulatory reforms of Korean government, by focusing on three sections corresponding to Japan’s regulatory reforms: medical care, employment and agriculture. The Korean government selected five service sectors of health and medical care, education, banking, tourism, and software as the main reform sectors. However, the progress in related legislations such as Service Industry Development Act has been poor; though their legalizations are important to respond high demands from the market. The results are summarized into three parts.First, the would-be achievements of Korean regulatory reforms from easing of medical regulations: allowing commercialized medical care, attracting foreign patients, and deregulating telemedicine treatment has been delayed due to strong resistances from rent seekers. The progress in medical regulation reform has been slow and requires backup plans.Second, the government has promoted labor reforms on application of the wage peak system and general dismissal requisites etc., which would be significant as an initiation of earnest labor market reform. However, the government needs to provide supplement policies for the agreement between labor and management and to achieve labor flexibility and employment stability at the same time.Third, although the government has eliminated obstacles for agricultural corporations, more is required to improve the quality of agricultural enterprises and induce more enterprises’ participation. And as a reform of the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, the government separated the federation into finance and economic sectors. However, the federation’s economic sector faces challenges to compete with other agricultural distributors and improve management efficiency.Section 2 “Regional-level regulatory reforms: Special Zone system” and Section 3 “Enterprise-level regulatory reforms” in Chapter 5, outline the present condition of the regulatory reforms at the regional and enterprises levels. Firstly, the results of the regional level regulatory reform can be summarized as:First, special zones are basically being promoted to create good business environments focusing on introducing education institutions, foreign medical center and etc., to encourage more foreign direct investment. Also in the local special zones, regulatory exemptions for land-use and authority transfer are introduced with consideration of each region’s own characteristics.Second, challenges that special zones face are: first, due to overlapping designation, there is insufficient differentiation among the zones. Also the lack of governance system, delays in development work and sluggish foreign direct investment are being pointed out as problems. Impediments, in particular, to development in the Special Economic Zones include phase-in development restrictions, provision of lands to enterprises below the cost, and resistance to establish foreign medical corporations. Also, the impacts and the utilization of regulatory exemptions by enterprises in Special Economic Zones are still low.As for results of the enterprise-level regulatory reform, they can be summarized as follows:First, Korean government also has enterprise-level regulatory reform system, so called Conformity Verification System and Fast Track-and-Temporary Licensing System while these systems can be applied only to new products and services of industry convergence.Second, substantial time has passed since the introduction of Conformity Verification System and Fast Track-and-Temporary Licensing System, established in 20011 and 2014, respectively, however, still the utilization is low. -
[Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies] Collected Papers III : India, South Asia, Latin America
KIEP Date 2015.12.30
Competition policy, Economic relations -
Macroprudential Response to Increased Global Market Volatility
Volatilities of price indicators have remained extremely stable during the period of low interest rates since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of September 2009. Low volatility pushes down the risk premium which could cause globa..
KANG Tae Soo et al. Date 2015.12.30
Financial policy, Monetary policyDownloadContentSummary정책연구브리핑Volatilities of price indicators have remained extremely stable during the period of low interest rates since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of September 2009. Low volatility pushes down the risk premium which could cause global investors’risk appetite to increase. There has been a big change in global liquidity flows since 2009. Emerging market economies (EMEs), with relatively high credit risk, received huge capital inflows backed up by the increased risk appetite of global investors. US Federal Reserve is now trying to normalize its monetary policy by increasing the policy rate tied at zero low bound for about seven years. This will bring asset price volatility and risk premiums to normalize. We remain concerned about the downside risk to the capital outflows from EMEs, including Korea. And it may well potentially cause a decrease in asset price and a growth contraction in EMEs. Accordingly, we provide an overview of the volatility of financial market and new trends in capital flows, and identify the determinants of capital flows to/from EMEs. We also review the use of capital flow management policies in EMEs including Korea, and examine the effectiveness of Asset?Based Reserve Requirements (ABRR) as an alternative macro-prudential policy measure to manage capital flows. First, we provide an overview of volatility of financial markets and recent trends in capital flows in Chapter 2. The continuation of low volatility and ample funding at low rates has encouraged market participants to take increasingly speculative positions. Thus, many large EMs have experienced a surge in capital inflows in the aftermath of the GFC. In addition, the composition of capital flows has changed significantly over the past few years. Prior to the GFC, banks’short-term loans mainly took the large volume of capital inflow to EMEs. After 2009, however, portfolio investment (equity and fixed income debt) has taken a larger share. It would be dubbed ‘the second phase’ of global liquidity. And we assess the impacts of push (global) and pull (country-specific) factors on capital inflows to EMEs. According to the results, push factors are more significant for capital inflows to EMs. This implies that domestic policy tools are limited in terms of addressing the macroeconomic and financial stability risks driven by capital inflow surges from abroad. There is concern that the US Fed’s imminent lift-off in policy rates may have a significant impact on capital flows and economic growth in emerging market countries. Thus we may need to find policy tools to respond to these important issues. Against this backdrop, we conducted empirical research to better understand the effects of price volatility (VIX) and interest rate spreads on the capital flows of emerging economies in Chapter 3. In the study, we chose to utilize fund flow data from EPFR (Emerging Portfolio Fund Research) whose data has higher reporting frequency than conventional capital flow data sources. The implications from our empirical results are threefold. First, an increase in volatility is associated with net outflow of funds from emerging economies. Second, our results do not unconditionally support the textbook effects of widening of interest rate spreads leading to capital inflows in emerging economies. Lastly, interest rate spreads had opposite effects on the capital flows of emerging economies depending on the level of volatility. In times of heightened volatility, widening interest rate spreads were associated with positive (+) capital inflow. In contrast, the widening of interest rate spreads was negatively (-) associated with capital inflows when volatility was low. This particular empirical result on the effect of interest rate spread suggests that it may be difficult to address issues of volatile capital flows using monetary policy alone. The results also suggest it is important to consider the effect of volatility when conducting monetary policies in emerging economies. In Chapter 4, we review the use of capital flow management policies in emerging economies including Korea. A surge in capital inflows to EMEs may deepen volatility and vulnerability of the macro-economy and financial markets. The IMF provided a clear and consistent perspective with respect to capital flows and policies. Policymakers should take into account appropriate macro-economic policies at first, and then need to employ Capital Flows Management Measures (CFMs) and Macro-prudential Measures (MPMs) to respond to capital flow surges. Several emerging economies introduced CFMs to address side effects from the high volatility of capital flows. Beginning in June 2010, Korea introduced a series of Macro-prudential measures (MPMs) aimed at building resilience against external financial shocks, especially against vulnerability to capital flow reversals in the banking sector. These MPMs succeeded in reinforcing the banking system’s soundness by improving the structure of foreign debt of the banking sector, and reducing capital inflows in short-term portion and stabilizing volatility of capital flows. There are, however, limitations that MPMs in Korea are placing more emphasis on consolidating foreign liquidity soundness of the banking sector. In addition to the above, it is imperative that Korea make preparations to reduce volatility of capital flows in equity and debt. In chapter 5, we discuss asset-based reserve requirement policy as an instrument to cope with financial systemic risk. Specifically, we compare the effects of asset-based reserve requirement and Basel III-type countercyclical capital buffer using a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model. Asset-based reserve requirement forces financial institutions to set aside a certain portion of their assets as reserves. In this sense, it contrasts with the current reserve requirement system that is imposed on the liability side of the banks. In particular, it can be used to alleviate credit overheating in a particular sector of the economy, such as the household mortgage market. We introduce heterogeneity into the credit market by assuming two types of entrepreneurs, and a bank that allocates lending to both entrepreneurs. Given common external shocks that has identical effects on both credit sectors, both asset-based reserve requirement and countercyclical capital buffer perform equally well to mitigate the credit cycle. However, given sector-specific shocks that generate sector-specific credit cycles, an asset-based reserve requirement performs better than the countercyclical capital buffer. The reason is that the former can adjust the asset return of the sector where credit cycle arises while leaving the other sector unaffected, but the latter affects the profitability of the entire bank as well as credit to the other sector that is unrelated to the shock. Also, accumulated reserve can be used to cover liquidity shortfalls when financial conditions deteriorate, as in periods of sudden capital outflows. In this paper, we find the evidence that capital flows to Korea are more sensitive to global factors (push factors). This gives an appropriate prominence to the recipient countries introducing CFMs and MPMs in response to global liquidity expansion. We have seen that effect of interest rate spreads on capital flows vary according to the degree of volatility. Accordingly, monetary policy alone cannot address problems posed by capital flows surges. Many papers suggest that MPMs in Korea are effective in controlling capital inflow and would strengthen external stability. However, these measures are limited to simply responding to surges in capital outflows, expected as the consequence of normalization of US monetary policy. A broader policy package should be introduced to address the macroeconomic and financial stability risks to which capital outflow surges can give rise. In the short term, accumulation of foreign currency reserves, financial safety net, IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR) could be effective as a first aid measure. In the medium term, expanding the scope of application of MPMs from banks to non-banks (i.e. shadow banking) might be the way forward.

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