국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경과 목적
2. 연구의 범위
3. 연구의 내용과 차별성

제2장 한국 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출 현황: 제조업을 중심으로
1. 직접 수출
2. 간접 수출
3. 산업별 직ㆍ간접 수출 구조
4. 수출 유형별 중소기업의 특성 분석
5. 소결

제3장 FTA가 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출에 미치는 영향
1. 한국의 FTA 정책
2. FTA 정책의 직ㆍ간접 수출효과
3. 중소기업의 FTA 활용
4. 소결

제4장 정책금융이 중소기업의 직접 및 간접 수출에 미치는 영향
1. 한국의 중소기업 금융지원정책
2. 정책금융의 직ㆍ간접 수출효과
3. 소결

제5장 결론 및 시사점
1. 주요 결과
2. 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   This study investigates how Korean SMEs’ direct/indirect exports have been changing and how they have been affected by FTAs and financial support policies, with the aim of providing implications for SME internationalization policies. In our study we define direct export as the act of selling products directly to foreign buyers, while indirect export refers to the act of selling products to other domestic individuals or firms that engage in direct export. Direct/indirect forms of export, in general, are easier for SMEs to conduct due to the smaller cost involved when compared against other internationalization modes such as foreign direct investment (FDI). Thus, a major share of all internationalization activities by SMEs is accounted for by direct/indirect exports. Despite this importance, few studies have chosen to examine the direct and indirect exports of SMEs together, mainly because the SMEs’ indirect exports are hard to measure due to data limitation. This study aims to fill the research gap by utilizing newly-developed estimation methodologies and firm-level survey.
   More specifically, this study performs the following detailed research tasks. First, we compare the direct and indirect exports of SMEs across Korean manufacturing industries during the period 2002-2017 and explore the differential characteristics of SMEs according to their main export modes. We find that the share of SMEs in total indirect exports is much larger than that in total direct exports (73.0% vs. 18.8% in 2017) and document differential direct/ indirect export structures across the manufacturing industries. We further highlight that the firm characteristics are heterogeneous depending on whether their main export mode is direct or indirect.
   Second, we analyze the impacts of FTA policies on direct and indirect exports of SMEs by detailed manufacturing industries. We also examine how Korean SMEs have been utilizing FTAs for their exports. The FTA policies have been one of Korea’s main trade policies since 2000s. The main results of our analysis show that FTAs have significantly increased Korean SMEs’ direct exports during the period 2005-2017, albeit by only half the magnitude of the effect realized by FTAs in the direct exports of large enterprises during the same period. The gap in FTA direct export effects between large and small/medium firms tends to be larger in industries which show larger polarization in the distribution of firm sizes. Compared to the FTA direct export effects, however, the effect of FTAs on indirect export are seen to benefit SMEs in a broader set of industries. When considering the direct and indirect export effects of FTAs together, we find that the gap in FTA export effects between large and small/medium firms becomes narrower.
   Third, this study investigates the effect of financial support policies, one of the representative SME support policies in Korea, on direct and indirect exports of SMEs. The main finding is that the financial supports for SMEs by the Korean government significantly increased the SMEs’ direct exports. The magnitude of the direct export effects tends to be larger for firms with larger financial support, lower credit score, less years of operation, etc. We also find that the government financial supports positively affected the SMEs’ indirect effects, although the effects were differential depending on the indirect export type.
   Lastly, we conclude with some policy implications based on the main findings. We make suggestions on what policy goals should be set to better assist SMEs’ entry to direct exports, how to facilitate SMEs that indirectly export to engage in direct exports, and how to improve the existing FTA and financial support policies to more effectively facilitate SMEs’ internationalization.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 내용과 구성

제2장 다국적기업의 투자 철수사례
1. 까르푸(Carrefour)의 한국 철수
2. 한국GM 군산공장 폐쇄
3. 미쉐린(Michelin)의 일본 오타공장 폐쇄
4. GM홀덴(Holden) 호주 철수
5. 소결

제3장 우리나라의 외국인 투자기업 현황
1. 투자자 국적·산업·지역별 분포
2. 철수하는 외국인 투자기업의 특성
3. 소결

제4장 외투기업 활동이 국내기업 고용에 미치는 영향 분석
1. 연구 배경
2. 기존 연구
3. 실증분석
4. 실증분석 결과
5. 소결

제5장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 요약 및 정책적 시사점
2. 다국적기업 철수에 대응하는 정책방향
3. 연구의 한계

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   In May 2018 the permanent shutdown of GM Korea’s Gunsan plant heightened social interest in the management of multinational corporations (MNCs). It is now well understood that the biggest concern of MNCs is profitability and they do not hesitate to withdraw their subsidiaries from anywhere in the world. Due to domestic and foreign changes such as demographic changes and the rise of emerging countries such as China and ASEAN, the global economy will see frequent restructuring of the global value chain through the entry and exit of MNCs in the future. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to establish policy directions in response to the withdrawal of MNCs.
   To this end, this research conducts case studies on the previous withdrawal of MNCs and estimates the effect of MNCs’ actitivies on the domestic firms in Korea. In particular, we study four cases of the withdrawal that has negatively affected the economies of the host countries - ① withdrawal of Carrefour in Korea ② GM’s Gunsan plant closure ③ Michelin’s Otta plant closure in Japan ④ GM Holden’s plant closure in Australia. The MNCs decided to shut down their plants in response to either deterioration in profitability or changes in the corporations’ management strategy. Despite the government’s efforts to prevent the closures of plants, the gap in the bargaining power between the MNCs and the governments of the host countries was also evident. Rather than withdrawing completely, however, MNCs have maintained logistics departments and R&D departments such as design centers in line with the industrial competitiveness of the host countries.
   Meanwhile, job loss is one of the central concerns in all of our case studies. Unlike large corporations and capitalists who can diversify their investments between regions and industries, workers and small business owners are more sensitive to the impact of the MNC withdrawal because they are more subject to the restrictions on movement between regions and industries. In addition, the labor market rigidities implemented for the purpose of supporting workers in normal times can even have a substantial effect on the labor market when MNCs close their plants. If the withdrawing MNCs were able to gradually reduce the level of employment as profitability deteriorated in advance, the closure of plants would not have a steep effect on the labor market.
   As highlighted in Chapter 4, the activities of foreign-invested firms are positively correlated with the employment of domestic firms. In particular, the domestic firms in upstream industries were significantly affected. In light of the recent restructuring of GM Korea and concerns about the production cliff of Renault Samsung Motors, our estimation results highlight the potentially substantial effects of the MNC withdrawal from the comprehensive machinery industry. For example, there could be a negative impact on the employment of domestic small and medium-sized firms in the upstream industries that supply parts to the automobile corporations.
   In the long run, it is important to strengthen industrial competitiveness in response to the entry and exit of MNCs, thereby enhancing the growth engine of our economy. Moreover, our case studies and empirical analysis also suggest the implementation of more aggressive fiscal support and assistance programs for rapid sectoral and employment adjustment through re-education, re- employment, and technology development for workers and mid- and small-sized firms in the related industries and the local communities. Among others, our proposed policy measures are a more comprehensive adjustment assistance programs as in the case of the EU’s European Globalization Adjustment Fund and the purchase of goods through a procurement market to strengthen the regional economy after the withdrawal of MNCs. In addition, the Korean government should strengthen policy measures to make sure that MNCs agree to the terms and conditions imposed on an agreement that must be satisfied to receive FDI incentives and benefits. To do that, the upward legislation of the refund regulation on cash aid to promote foreign investment should be implemented.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성
2. 연구의 목적과 방법

제2장 투자자 - 국가 분쟁 동향
1. 개관
2. 일본인 투자자의 중재신청 동향
3. 우리나라에 대한 일본인 투자자의 투자 현황

제3장 한·일 및 한·중·일 투자협정의 투자자 - 국가 분쟁해결제도
1. 한·일 투자협정
2. 한·중·일 투자협정
3. 소결

제4장 중재판정례 검토
1. ISDS 규정에 대한 MFN 규정의 적용 가부 관련 판정례
2. 국제법 언급 유무에 따른 FET 기준 관련 판정례
3. 간접수용 판단에서의 세부 기준 관련 판정례
4. 사법부인 판단 기준 관련 판정례

제5장 결론
1. 요약
2. 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   The Korean Supreme Court delivered a ruling on October 30, 2018, recognizing Japanese corporate liability for victims of forced labor. Since then, some assets belonging to these Japanese companies have been foreclosed. There was a news article reporting the possibility that the Japanese companies in question could file an investor-state dispute against Korea for arbitration. Although it is unlikely that Japanese companies will actually file for international investment arbitration, analyzing the prospective issues and reviewing relevant judgments can provide important reference points during the course of Korea's negotiations with Japan.
   The total number of investor-state disputes has continued to increase since 1987, with a cumulative total of 942 cases as of January 1, 2019. In the past, Japanese investors were not active in applying for arbitration compared to their overseas investment. Since 2015, however, Japanese investors have brought a case to the international investment arbitration every year until 2018.
   Against this background, this study analyzed the ISDS provisions within the Korea-Japan Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) and Korea-China-Japan Trilateral Investment Treaty (TIT), which constitute the grounds for Japanese companies to submit investor-state disputes to arbitration. Our analysis shows that Korea-Japan BIT, which entered into force in 2003, is less detailed than the Korea-China-Japan TIT, which entered into force in 2014. Unlike the Korea-China-Japan TIT, there is no provision preventing MFN articles from being applied to the ISDS articles, no criteria for determining the fair and equitable treatment (FET) standard, nor are there any detailed criteria for judging indirect expropriation. However, there is an explicit provision in the Korea-China-Japan TIT that investors can put forth claims based on what they think is more favorable to them.
   Thus, if an investor, a Japanese company investing in Korea chooses to apply for arbitration by selecting the Korea-Japan BIT as the applicable norm, the main issues of dispute will be: (i) whether the MFN provisions apply to ISDS regulations, (ii) whether there is a difference in FET criteria with or without mention of international law, and (iii) the detailed criteria to recognize in recognizing indirect expropriation.
   Based on these identified issues, the leading awards of prominent arbitral tribunals were reviewed. Regarding the first issue, many of these cases found that the MFN provisions largely do not apply to ISDS regulations. On the second issue, notwithstanding differences in language, awards tended to converge toward demanding the same level of obligations as international law. Third, various and detailed criteria for recognizing indirect expropriation were identified in many cases. Fourth, in the case of denial of justice, a type of violation of the FET obligation, it was recognized in the cases that judicial decisions are also subject to arbitration as a measure of a Party. However, the cases show that very strict standards are required for a denial of justice claim to be established.
   The implications from the analysis are as follows. First, although there are no restrictive provisions within the Korea-Japan BIT stating that the MFN regulations do not apply to ISDS regulations, it is expected that there will be no disadvantages for Korea on important issues. Second, although the Korea-Japan BIT does not specify international law as a criterion for FET obligations, the arbitral tribunal is expected to apply FET standards equivalent to international law to Korea, as in most cases. Third, in the case of the Korea-Japan BIT, which lacks detailed criteria for indirect expropriation, an implicit assurance by the government may be recognized by the arbitral tribunal. Fourth, when considering how stringent the criteria for acknowledging the denial of justice has been set in the leading cases, the possibility of the Korean Supreme Court's ruling constituting such a case may be very low without special circumstances. In the long term, it will be important for Korea to continuously refine and update the wording of its BITs.

국문요약

제1장 서론

1. 연구의 필요성과 목적

2. 선행연구의 검토

3. 연구내용과 방법

제2장 베트남 경제, 농업현황 및 사회경제발전 정책

1. 경제와 농업의 현황

2. 경제체제 개혁․개방과 농업개혁

3. 국가경제발전 정책

제3장 한-베트남 경제협력 현황

1. FTA 체결 현황 및 교역 동향

2. 농산물 수출 시장 분석

3. 농식품 글로벌 가치사슬 분석

4. 농업분야 경제협력의 주요 현안

5. 우리나라 민간부문의 진출과 경제협력 정책

제4장 한-베트남 개발협력 현황

1. 농업개발협력을 위한 여건

2. 베트남 농업분야 ODA 수원 현황

3. ‘무역을 위한 원조’의 성과

제5장 한-베트남 농업분야 중장기 협력전략

1. 협력의 성과와 과제

2. 협력전략의 기본방향

3. 협력 모델

4. 세부 협력추진 과제

제6장 요약 및 결론

참고문헌

부 록

​

Executive Summary 

   The so-called ‘New Southward Policy’, announced in 2017 by Korean government, declared its aspiration that the trade between Korea and Vietnam would expand to be as much as 100 billion USD by 2020. Current level of trade between two countries is 68,265 million USD which is 7.2 times as that in 2009. In agricultural sector, the trade has shown annual increase of 20.6% since 2010 by reaching 1.93 billion USD in 2018. In the same year, the share of Vietnamese agricultural products is 3.5% of total agricultural imports, and 6.7% of total agricultural exports by Korea. The budget of development cooperation with Vietnam disbursed in 2017 was 195.45 million USD, and the amount of grant aid to Vietnam is the largest in the world.
   It is required to establish mid- to long-term development cooperation strategy in agricultural sector in order to keep in pace with the ever-expanding relationship between two countries. Vietnam takes very high strategic positions in Southeast Asian region, socially and economically. Potential of Vietnamese agriculture is also high, and, as its agricultural production structure is very similar with other Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam’s agricultural development will imply a lot for them. Also, Vietnam’s reformation and opening policies and experiences (Doi Moi) can provide heavy implications for exchange and economical cooperation between South and North Koreas in the future.
   This study has the purposes to give basic informations to derive challenges and future directions for expanding and improving agricultural trade and ODA (official development assistance) between Korea and Vietnam, through the analyses of current status of economic and development cooperations and reviews of Vietnam’s structural reform process and contemporary key agriculture-related policies and strategies.
   Literature and reports as well as databases from Kati, FAOSTAT, Global Trade Atlas, UN Comtrade, OECD.Stat, and ODA KOREA were used for the study. Research team visited public and private organizations located in cities of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh and Da Lat for data collection. A part of research results were presented at the international conference held in July 24th, 2019 for comments.
   Vietnam has achieved annual economic growth rates as high as 7% since 2000s. Agricultural sector takes 14.8% in GDP in 2017. Key products are rice, maize, cassava, vegetables, troical fruits, tea, coffee, rubber, pepper, and cashew nuts. Exporting products are timber and timber products, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables, cashew nuts, rice, rubber, tea, pepper, cassava and cassava products, and so on, which are targeted to China, US, Southeast countries, Japan, and Korea.
   Vietnam adopted Doi Moi in 1986 when its economic conditions had deteriorated due to economic sanctions from Western countries and conflicts with China. Major reform measures in agricultural sector were, for instance, self-responsible agricultural management, liberalization of agricultural product marketing, enactment of agricultural land utilization for guaranteeing the execution of farmers’ land rights, and so on. Agricultural production started to increase stably since 1988, partly due to the measures.
   Recent important national development strategy is Social and Economic Development Strategy, which aims to achieve 3,200 USD for per capita GDP by 2020. Other strategic documents, including Agricultural Restructuring Towards Raising Added Values and Sustainable Development, Master Plan for Agricultural Production Development, and Agriculture Restructuring Program, also declare the targets to achieve by 2030: annual GDP growth rate of agricultural sector to be 3~3.2%, growth rate of production amount 4~4.3%, production amount per 1 hectare of agricultural land 100~120 VND, and so on. National Targeted Program on New Rural Development for 2010∼2020 (NTP-NRD) applies tactics of Korean Saemaul Undong toward 9,001 communes around the country for 10 years by 2020.
   After Korea-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect, the amount of imports of Vietnamese agricultural products are increasing 26.6% annually. Korea exported in 2018 460 million USD, which is the fourth largest in the world.
   Food and food distribution sectors are one of the most promising markets in the world. Young-aged people as well as near 100 million total population, and their income increases are potentially powerful factors for further growth. Highly favorable trusts toward Korean brands and Korean wave (Hallyu) are opportunities, on the one hand, while high prices and too old distribution and logistics system are threats.
   The study analyzes export competitiveness by utilizing four indicators after selecting main exporting products and export potential products—Revealed Comparative Advantage, Market Comparative Advantage, Comparative Advantage by Countries, and Market Share Index.
   Global value chain (GVC) analyses show that both the export of final products and export of intermediary goods in agro-food sectors have rapidly increased. It is important, therefore, to link the sectors in their production phases through using Korea-Vietnam FTA and Korea-ASEAN FTA. The study investigates the process in which the global chains of value addition are formed when exported agro-food products are input as intermediary goods into other country’s exported products by looking at the case of instant coffee. As results, it is expected that more raw agricultural products are exported, values are added by acquiring manufacture technologies, and forward and backward linkage industries are growing. However, it is witnessed that a various non-tariff barriers hinder increased trade between two countries.
   Between 2010 and 2017, international society offered 36,432 billion USD as ODA. Among them, agricultural ODA was 441.7 million USD which is 99.7% increase compared with the previous year. Agricultural sector’s share tripled from 4.2% in 2016 to 12.8% in 2017. Japan, Germany, Korea, US, and Australia are the countries which provided more ODA than other ones. Korea’s ODA to Vietnam between 2010 and 2017 reaches 2,193.54 million USD. Grant aid’s share swelled from 8% to 17% during the same time period, however, loan is 83% in 2017 taking lion’s share.
   Aid for agricultural sector including forestry and fishery sectors quadrupled from 1 million USD in 2010 to 4.25 million USD in 2017. The assistances were concentrated on education and training, agricultural development, rural development, livestock, agricultural policy and administration. In 2019, the ODA amount to Vietnam is 170 billion KRW.
   The grant aids from Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) have been focused on rural development based on Saemaul Undong methods for province levels, whereas Korean Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) on value chain development such as production capacity enhancement in vegetable and rice growing sectors, logistic facilities, and contract farming with private companies. Cases such as ‘Seed potato production facilities and technologies’ project by MAFRA, and ‘Rural Saemaul Undong model’ project by KOICA are excellent examples to understand differences between two organizations.
   When analyzing assistance using the perspective of aid for trade (AfT), Japan takes about half of total development cooperation, whereas Korea assisted about 100 million USD in 2017. It is maintained that future aids should be more invested into processed foods and storage projects for more AfT.
   Korean private companies occupy the position of the largest investors since September 2015, showing 6,883 accumulated cases which is also the most in the world. In agricultural sector, maize, cassava, banana and strawberry are major products produced and marketed by Korean companies in Vietnam, and some of them have been exported to Korea. Although some processing companies are operating in Vietnam for producing such as animal feeds, poor infrastructure in rural areas make it hard to attract more investment.
   Mid- to long-term agricultural strategy in the future needs to link development cooperation with economic cooperation, and to support Vietnam’s development strategies. Three cooperation models are provided here. First, it is crucial to identify the weak and/or potential parts along the value chain of specific product, and to concentrate assistances on them. Second is the linkage between raw material supplying farmers and private processors. The companies would contract with farmers and purchase agricultural produces after harvest as well as providing producing technologies and inputs, whereas infrastructure such as irrigation facilities and access roads, including drying and storing facilities, are provided through the ODA projects. It will guarantee sustainable income for the contracted farmers, and stable supply of raw materials for processing. Third is the linkage through the investment in logistics and transportation system and supports for technology and human resources. Distribution, marketing, and export are all requiring heavy investment in infrastructure which will contribute to the cost saving for private companies operating business in Vietnam.
   This study also provided three areas for future cooperation between two countries. First is the establishment of smart agriculture system. Vietnamese government already started to support smart farms and high quality, high productive enterprises through hi-tech agricultural policy. A few Korean companies have exerted their efforts to utilize Vietnam as the site to produce high technology agricultural inputs and equipments. Korean government has recently initiated so-called ‘Export Research Task Forch’ for exporting smart farm-related industries.
   Second is the establishment of production and distribution or logistic bases at key places in Vietnam. It needs to support logistic infrastructure for improving inefficiency and expanding export of Korean agro-food products. Considering territorial feature of Vietnam, the study recommends to build two bases at north and south economic complexes, for example, Saigon Hi-Tech Complex.
   Third, it is required to establish quarantine system and capacity building of the related officers. Through the establishment, it is expected that value added is continuously created and global value chains are extended by linking processes of production, storage, distribution, marketing and export. Korean quarantine system will be an excellent model as it had been well-developed in a relatively short time. Also, the ODA project about quarantine system improvement for Sri Lanka, and capacity building project for officers from developing countries can be very good cases for benchmarking.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구배경: 연구의 필요성
2. 연구의 의의(목적)
3. 가설검정

제2장 거주자 해외증권투자가 스왑레이트 및 환율에 미치는 영향
1. 서론
2. 선행연구
3. 계량모형
4. 분석 결과
5. 한국 시계열 분석
6. 소결

제3장 내국인의 해외증권투자 사례분석
1. 기관투자가의 해외증권투자 확대
2. 과도한 환헤지 비율 완화 방안

제4장 결론 및 정책 시사점

참고문헌

Executive Summary

   Since 2011, the overseas financial investment of residents in Korea has been increasing rapidly, mainly in stocks and bonds. Residents‘ portfolio investment, which was about 100 billion USD in 2010, has surged to 498 billion USD as of end-March 2019. This trend is expected to continue in the future due to macroeconomic conditions (low interest rates, expansion of savings over retirement), changes in government policies (activation of foreign investment, deregulation related to overseas investment), and institutional changes (introduction of IFRS in the insurance industry). This will have an influence on the Korean financial market through various channels. In particular, it is likely to affect the FX market, FX money market and the external macro-prudential elements such as short term external debt, meaning  it will be necessary to analyze these effects and prepare for risks in advance. Therefore, this study is aimed at presenting policy implications for stabilizing the FX market and FX money market through empirical analysis, comparative analysis of the past and recent expansion period of overseas portfolio investment, and in-depth interviews with financial experts.
   In Chapter 2, we examine the impact of the residents' foreign portfolio investments(bonds/equity) on swap rates and exchange rates. We use the Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM), which can effectively mitigate the endogeneity problem under the control of other factors that might affect swap rates and exchange rates. The empirical results of the SEM using the panel data show that the effect of residents’ foreign bond investment and foreign equity investment on swap rates and exchange rates are different. Residents’ foreign bond investment lowers the swap rates, while the residents' foreign equity investment has no impact on the swap rates. On the other hand, the effect on the exchange rates is opposite. The effect of residents’ foreign bond investments on exchange rates are statistically insignificant but, residents’ foreign equity investments are closely related to the depreciation of the Korean won. The notable result is that the effect of residents’ foreign bond investment on swap rates is more pronounced in emerging market economies. These empirical results can be explained by the different hedge practices of foreign bond and equity investment to deal with the exchange risk. In general, residents’ foreign bond investment lowers the swap rate by utilizing the swap market to hedge exchange risk. However, investors in foreign equity investment normally exchange their local currency to foreign currency in the spot exchange market. In this process, the value of the local currency is depreciated. These empirical results are consistent with the results from our VAR model using Korean monthly data.
   In Chapter 3, we conduct a comparative analysis between the past and recent periods when residents’ overseas securities investment expanded. This study examines the background, investor, investment method, and impact of overseas portfolio investment expansion in the mid-2000s and from 2010 to the latest. The expansion of overseas portfolio investment in both periods was mainly caused by current account surplus, continued inflow of foreign funds, low interest rate, and government policy to revitalize overseas investment. In other words, as foreign currency liquidity and won-denominated liquidity are abundant due to the current account surplus, the inflow of foreign funds, and the prolonged low interest rate, the seeking for high-yield overseas investments has expanded greatly in Korea. Against this backdrop, the Korean government has promoted overseas investment in order to reduce the abundance of foreign currency liquidity and to ease the pressure on the strong won.
   The two periods show differences in terms of investor and FX risk hedge pattern. In the case of the investor, overseas equity investment was expanded mainly by asset management companies in the mid-2000s, while foreign bond investment was largely expanded by insurance companies in recent years. In the case of FX risk hedge pattern, in the mid-2000s, FX risk was fully hedged when investing overseas securities, regardless of stocks and bonds. However in recent years, FX risk is not fully hedged when investing in overseas stocks, while 100% hedged when investing in overseas bonds.
In terms of the impact of overseas securities investments, there are commonalities and differences between the two periods. In the mid-2000s, foreign securities investment failed to alleviate the won's appreciation pressure due to a 100% hedge of FX risks, while causing a drop in swap rates and an increase in short-term external debts. Banks’ short-term external debts, including at branches of foreign banks, have increased thanks to increased opportunities for arbitrage transaction gains due to a drop in swap rates. The increase in short-term foreign debt has contributed to the decline in Korea's national credibility. In recent years, the rate of exchange risk hedging has been lower than in the mid-2000s. However, major overseas investors, especially insurers, still maintain high FX risk hedging rates. As a result, the impact of foreign investment on the exchange rate is limited, but instead, it acts as a factor to lower the swap rate.
   Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, case analysis and in-depth interviews with experts, we suggest the policy implications for stabilizing the FX markets and FX money markets. These include: increased incentives for unhedged foreign currency investments, the need for a governance framework to reconcile differences between macroeconomic and financial regulators, stronger risk responses to changes in accounting standards and capital adequacy regulations, more active foreign currency denominated insurance sales, and improvements made in risk-based capital (RBC) ratio regulation.

 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 필요성 및 목적
2. 연구내용
3. 연구방법
4. 용어 정의

제2장 연구의 배경
1. 베트남 유아교육 개관
2. 선행연구 검토

제3장 베트남 유아교사교육자 연수 제도 및 정책
1. 베트남 유아교사교육자 연수의 법적 근거
2. 베트남 유아교사교육자 연수 정책과 체제

제4장 베트남 유아교사교육자 연수에 대한 현장의 인식과 요구
1. 유아교사교육자 연수 실태
2. 유아교사교육자 연수에 대한 수요
3. 소결

제5장 베트남 유아교사교육자 연수 프로그램 개발안
1. 개발의 방향
2. 개발 방법 및 절차
3. 연수 프로그램 구성안

제6장 결론 및 정책 제언
1. 결론
2. 대베트남정부 정책 제언
3. 유아교육부문 신남방정책 아젠더 제안

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   The interest in policy to enhance the quality of early childhood education and care has never been higher across the globe as UN has adopted the agenda in its sustainable development goals as SDG Target 4.2. UNESCO stresses the importance of professionalism of early childhood teachers including their qualification and training for the implementation of SDG 4.2. Considering that it takes a considerable amount of time to improve the qualification criteria and initial teacher training of early childhood teachers, it is urgently needed to increase the professionalism of existing early childhood teachers at sites now. Hence, Training of Trainers (ToT) is critical to ensure the quality of trainers who will be providing training and capacity-building assistance to existing teachers as it determines the quality of high-level professional learning offered to teachers or program participants. Despite the significance of ToT, however, training of trainers responsible for in-service training of early childhood teachers, whose qualifications require a low education level for entry into the profession in developing countries, as well as the quality monitoring of training programs still remain poor.
   As for Vietnam, about a 95% of early childhood teachers currently meet the minimum qualifications (high school graduates). In September, 2019, the Vietnamese Ministry of Education and  Training (MOET) announced the 'in-service training frameworks for early childhood teachers to increase the qualification criteria as junior college graduates (or those with 3-year programs) and improve their professionalism through regular training and education. Prior to the framework, MOET initiated '2018-2025 project for enhancing professionalism of early childhood teachers and managers in August, 2018 as a policy approach to introduce ToT in the early childhood education for the first time in the country.
   The purposes of this study are as follows: first, to identify the current status of and needs on training of early childhood teacher trainers in Vietnam; Second, to develop a suitable ToT program for early childhood teachers and to explore the implementation feasibility of such program; third, to provide suggestions to MOET for the improvement of ToT programs for early childhood teachers, and to identify agendas for the New Southern Policy of Korea in terms of ToT.
   In Vietnam, 'key teachers' refer to outstanding experienced teachers who are in charge of training programs by definition. In practice, all trainers of teachers 'serving' as key teachers in Vietnam including school inspectors working for office of education and experienced kindergarten directors are dubbed as key teachers in general, although they are not having the 'status' of teachers.
   To identify the current status and needs of in-service training for trainers of early childhood teachers in Vietnam, a survey was conducted in 63 cities and provinces by classifying them into the North (Hanoi), Central (Da Nang), and South (Ho Chi Minh). A MoU was concluded with Vietnam National Institute of Educational Sciences (VNIES, a national research center) to carry out the survey and a total number of 458 respondents participated in the survey. In addition, two workshops were held in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh to gather opinions from a total of abut 40 local government officials of education offices, academia, and key teachers about the directions, plans, and examples of ToT programs jointly developed by Korean research team. In order to share key findings of survey and major outcomes of consultation meetings with domestic stakeholders, a policy seminar was held in Seoul, Korea.
   The chapter 2 provided an overview on the status of early childhood education and key policies in Vietnam, and reviewed previous studies both in Korea and overseas. The chapter 3 explored legal grounds for ToT systems and policies, training structure, training institutes, and trainer qualification criteria. Training programs (in-service) for early childhood teachers supported by the Vietnamese government are classified into the central level by MOET, local level by office of education in city and provincial government, and individual kindergarten levels.
   The chapter 4 identified the status and needs of ToT for early childhood teachers in Vietnam including current status, training institutes, qualification of trainers, training curriculum,  duration, topics and modules, and rewards for participation. A 93.2% of respondents answered that they participated in training programs for trainers of early childhood teachers for the recent 3 years, offered mostly off-line, and the average training hours was about 21 hours. Topics with the highest participation rate were planning of educational activities and  on-site learning (92.8%), followed by emotional and social development (88.2%), and teacher character and job competency (87.6%). On the other hand, training to work with ethnic minority children (46.7%), children's rights to education, and children with special educational needs were topics with a relatively low participation rate. Officials from city and provincial offices of educations were found to be the most suitable for teacher trainers, and active interactions through professional learning communities were considered as the most effective training method. Demands for diversified approaches to educational methods were significantly strong, followed by improving professionalism and capacity-building of trainers for early childhood teachers, harmonizing the quality of training programs across regions, and provision of incentives for training.
   The chapter 5 suggested directions and plans for the development of ToT programs for early childhood teachers in Vietnam with program structures and examples. As for program development directions, the focus was primarily on the alignment with the Vietnamese national framework for the development of professionalism of early childhood teachers and  development of standard programs based on the needs to reduce regional disparities. Other suggestions included diversification of the types and methods of training centering on adoption and application at sites and support for children from the vulnerable and disadvantaged families.
   The chapter 6 provided policy suggestions for the Vietnamese government and proposed policy agendas regarding early childhood education for the New Southern Policy. As an approach for ToT for early childhood teachers in Vietnam, it was suggested to develop ToT program policies for early childhood teachers based on data and needs assessment and to establish standard ToT programs. Recommendations for options to provide quality training programs by the central government agencies in terms of the target participants, methods of training, trainers of teachers, topics and modules of training were provided. Specifically, stressed were central governmental monitoring the quality of training at local level and operation of local training support groups for early childhood teachers by region for  the mid/long-term development of local training systems. Other recommendations included support for professional learning communities consist of key teachers, support for traveling for training, pay increase and other incentives.
   In addition, several agendas were proposed and discussed for the New Southern Policy including exporting of online training contents and systems for early childhood teachers and training agents, development, implementation, and consulting of standard ToT programs, identification of common needs of early childhood teachers training and promotion of joint development and cooperation programs in key countries of the New Southern Policy, accumulation and use of database and building a think tank network (TTN) of early childhood education experts in key countries of the New Southern Policy.
   This study has significant bearings in that it serves as a data based on the first nationwide study and needs assessment on the current status of trainers of early childhood teachers in Vietnam.  This study may help the two countries provide a venue for continued and effective cooperation and exchange by identifying a linkage with the New Southern Policy in Korea as Vietnam strives to push forward its policy to enhance professionalism of early childhood teachers and their trainers.

서언 

​

국문요약 

제1장 서론 
1. 연구의 배경과 목적 
2. 선행연구 검토 
3. 연구의 범위와 구성 

제2장 중동지역 여성의 경제활동 참여 저조 배경 및 현황 
1. 여성의 경제활동 참여 저조 배경 
  가. 사회문화적 특성 
  나. 제도 및 법적 제약 
  다. 석유 중심 경제의 구조적 특수성 
2. 여성의 정치 및 경제활동 참여 현황 
  가. 여성의 정치활동 참여 현황 
  나. 여성의 경제활동 참여 현황 
3. 소결 

제3장 중동지역 여성의 경제활동 참여 확대를 위한 주요 정책
1. 여성의 사회활동 제약 요인 제거 
  가. 후견인 제도 완화 
  나. 노동참여 여건 개선 
  다. 출산휴가 및 육아 지원 제도 강화 
2. 종사 가능 직종 마련 및 확대 
  가. 취업 가능 직종 확대 
  나. 여성 고용 쿼터 지정 및 여성 전용 일자리 확대 
  다. 창업 지원 
3. 교육 및 직업훈련 지원 강화 
4. 소결 

제4장 중동지역 여성 경제 참여 확대 정책의 경제적 효과 분석: 사우디아라비아를 중심으로 
1. 연구방법론과 분석모형 
2. 분석 결과 
  가. 경제성장 효과 분석 
  나. 외국인 노동자 대체효과 분석 
3. 시사점 

제5장 중동지역 여성 경제 참여 확대에 따른 정부간 협력 방안 및 우리 기업에 대한 시사점 
1. 주요 부문별 정부간 협력 방안 
  가. 우리나라의 여성 경제활동 참여 확대 정책 
  나. 교육 및 직업훈련  
  다. 노동 및 행정 
2. 기업 진출 유망 분야 및 시사점 
  가. 진출 유망 산업 및 품목 
  나. 진출기업에 대한 시사점 

참고문헌 

Executive Summary

   This study examines the background and current status of recent women empowerment policy in the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and suggests new agenda for government-level policy cooperation and favorable sectors due to recent changes. The level of economic participation by women in the Middle East remains among the lowest in the world. Laws, institutions, and cultures inherent in the region have long restrained women’s social and economic activities. Recently, however, major oil countries in the Middle East are encouraging women’s economic and social participation. Thus women economic empowerment policy is becoming a key labor policy for these countries to depart from resource-oriented rentier states in preparation for the upcoming post-oil era. This study analyzes the background, detailed policies, and economic effects of women’s empowerment in the region, as well as providing policy implications and concrete policy approaches to further economic cooperation with Middle Eastern countries.
   Chapter 2 surveys the background of low female economic participation in the Middle East and the status of female economic and political empowerment in the region, using data on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. There are three main reasons for low female economic participation in the Middle East relative to other regions in the world. First, the patriarchal system remains strong and a culture which places honor above all else places many restrictions on women. This cultural and historical background has limited the role and behavior of Middle Eastern women in many ways and still affects social perceptions of women’s economic participation. Another factor is how insufficient the institutional and legal environment is for female participation in the labor market. The male guardianship system, which requires women to earn permission from their male guardians for important social decisions like marriage or employment, remains in place in many countries in the region. More than half of the Middle Eastern countries have restrictions on women labor, including their occupations and industries. Maternity leaves in the Middle East are relatively short compared to other regions, and most countries are yet to allow parental leaves. Still, in some countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, employers are obligated to provide full pay for employees during maternity leaves. Lastly, the unique oil-dependent economic structure also discourages women from participating in the economy. The oil-based economic structure weakens the international competitiveness of trade goods producing sectors, in which female workers are traditionally more active, and increases the reservation wages for women, thus reducing both the demand for and supply of female labor. Data for GCC countries in the Middle East, where women’s economic activities are particularly more limited, show that these countries rank among the lowest, from 121st to 141st overall, on the global gender gap index. In particular, while legal/political institutions such as the right to vote and electoral eligibility are normally ensured for women, actual political participation by women generally remained limited. In GCC countries, female enrollment rates by education level are similar to or even higher than their male counterparts, especially in higher education. Although women’s education levels are higher than men’s, women account for less than 30% of the total workforce, and female economic participation rates are also relatively low. Female unemployment rates are also higher than male unemployment rates because there are few suitable and decent jobs for women due to social and cultural constraints. In private sectors where the share of foreign workers is high, many foreign female workers are housekeepers and elementary workers, with the result that wage levels of women remain a mere 20% to 47% of men’s wages. In public sectors, on the other hand, the gender pay gap is relatively small and the majority of workers are male and female nationals who are both paid well.
   Chapter 3 surveys the female economic empowerment policies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia is undergoing visible changes from when women’s economic activities were virtually unheard of in the country, as it has dramatically eased and reformed restrictions against women recently. As the male guardianship system, which affects women’s lives in general, has been weakened, the environment for women to participate in economic activities has improved. Allowing women to drive has increased their prospects to find jobs. The UAE, which differs from Saudi Arabia in its economic and demographic background, has a better environment for women in terms of institutional constraints on women’s activities, as women empowerment rose as a main agenda in the country earlier than Saudi Arabia. Both countries actively support women’s participation in private sectors and, in particular, encourage women’s start-ups. In addition, as women’s economic activities expand, maternity and child-care support policies develop. To allow a work-life balance for women, telecommuting is encouraged and supported. Furthermore, support for female education and vocational training is being promoted as a key policy for women’s economic empowerment.
   In Chapter 4, we analyze the economic effect created by Saudi female nationals entering the labor market of the nation, where female economic empowerment policies have been expanded to achieve the Saudi Vision 2030. In particular, we conducted an empirical study to test the statistical relationship between Saudi national labor market participation and economic growth, as well as the substitution effect between Saudi national workers and non-Saudi workers. In Saudi Arabia, 62% of the 30 million resident population are nationals, compared to other countries in regions were more foreigners reside than nationals. Being the source country of the second-largest amount of remittances from migrant workers in the world places a huge burden on Saudi Arabia, along with the high unemployment rate of Saudi nationals. In this regard, the recent female labor policy of Saudi Arabia focuses on the substitution of migrant workers by Saudi female workers. This empirical study builds the longest time series data of Saudi national female labor market participation rates from 1999 to 2018. It is important to note that overall female labor market participation data used in most related literature are actually inappropriate because foreign workers account for the majority in the Saudi labor market. It is a key contribution of this study that it uses the longest time series data compared to some previous studies that use Saudi national data. The empirical results show a strong positive relationship between Saudi national female labor market participation and economic growth when controlling for effects from the oil sector. On the other hand, the findings for a substitutional relationship between migrant workers and Saudi female workers were not statistically significant. Despite several recent policies by the Saudi government for foreign workers, such as increasing the costs associated with hiring foreigners and limiting work permit quotas, the participation rate of Saudi women in the labor market continues to show a strong positive relationship with the share of non-Saudi workers in the labor market. It appears difficult for Saudi female workers to fulfill the demand for non-Saudi workers because Saudi nationals tend to avoid domestic jobs like private drivers or housekeepers. We believe further social and cultural change will be necessary to expand women’s economic participation in the future, in addition to legal and institutional reform, vocational education, as well as improvements in child care and welfare support.
   Chapter 5 explores the demand for government-to-government (G2G) cooperation as women’s economic participation expands, focusing on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and suggests emerging sectors and industries and implications for Korean companies operating in the countries. Korea’s experience in promoting female labor participation for economic development through women’s education and vocational training can be particularly useful to develop female education and training systems in Saudi Arabia. As the government of Saudi Arabia pushes up women’s labor participation, the development of human resources to meet demands in the labor market has become a priority in policies. Korea’s experience of implementing similar policies can be shared with Saudi Arabia in the form of cooperation between related institutes for female education in developing curricula and educational infrastructure. In addition, a platform connecting Saudi students with Korean companies in Saudi Arabia, for instance university student internship programs, can encourage exchanges in the education sector. Meanwhile, the demand for women’s vocational training in Saudi Arabia and the UAE is expected to increase cooperation in the establishment of training facilities and systems as well as training for instructors. As the demand for vocational training instructors is expected to increase, we can expect to see further cooperation in this area.
   For labor and administrative policies, the export of women’s employment support systems can be a priority item of cooperation. We expect to see a rise in demand for employment information systems within Middle Eastern countries in the near future. Based on the experience and achievements of employment support institutes operated by the Korean government, such as the Women’s New Work Center, we can fully expect further adoption and development of such employment support systems in these countries as well. Second, we can consider sharing policy experiences and know-hows in supporting work-family balance. As women’s economic activities increase in the Middle East, demand for work-family balance and child care systems will increase soon. These countries yet lack sufficient experience and know-how to develop comprehensive and systematic policies. Since Korea has been working on these policies for a long time, such as reforming related laws and establishing and implementing long-term plans since the 1990s, so substantial policy cooperation can be reached in this area. Third, Korea’s labor market forecasting system can be exported to these countries. Forecasting labor future supply and demand is important as demand for substitute workers increases due to a rise in maternity leaves, and this will increase the need for skill in these forecasts as female workers continue to diversify their fields of speciality. We can expect demand for employment forecasting systems developed in Korea. Fourth, joint research projects at women’s policy institutes and researchers can be considered. Joint research between Korea and the Middle Eastern countries can help analyze the situation of the two countries regarding participation in women’s economic activities and to develop new cooperation agenda before launching and scaling up actual cooperation projects.
   Considering the population, purchasing power, and potential of women-related markets among the Middle East countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be considered Korea’s key partners and promising markets. Korea mainly exports automobiles and their parts, power and construction equipment, and mobile phones to both countries, but the demand for various products is expected to increase due to economic diversification and the expansion of economic activities by women. In particular, changes in women policies, such as easing male guardianship, allowing women to drive, increasing women’s employment, and easing clothing restrictions, will lead to more women making independent consumption decisions and exercising their purchasing powers. This is likely to generate more demand for beauty products and services and travel to Korea with an interest in Korean culture, like the Korean Wave. We expect the export of goods and services matching women’s needs to be promising areas.
   Meanwhile, Korean companies operating in the region will have to adopt new strategies by identifying policy changes and future demands as Saudi Arabia and the UAE adopt nationalization policies in their labor markets. In the case of Saudi Arabia, where female labor policy is changing rapidly, we can expect to see enormous changes in the business environment. The additional costs incurred by segregating male and female workers in working places will decrease. Meanwhile, localization policies to ensure local content requirements along with nationalization employment policies will make it necessary to consider local joint ventures and production instead of simple export to these markets. Due to the lack of local technical capacity in Saudi Arabia as well as policy interest in local technical training, we can also expect for the operation of private education facilities for vocational and technical education to be a promising area.
 

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 연구의 의의 및 차별성
3. 연구의 범위 및 구성

제2장 신남방지역 무역 및 투자 동향
1. 아세안 및 인도의 무역
2. 아세안 및 인도의 투자
3. 요약

제3장 신남방지역 가치사슬 구조와 산업경쟁력 분석
1. 분석배경
2. 분석방법론
3. 신남방지역 가치사슬 구조 분석
4. 부가가치 기준 비교우위 분석을 통한 수출경쟁력 분석
5. 소결

제4장 신남방지역의 GVC 관련 주요 정책 및 산업별 수요 분석
1. 아세안의 GVC 관련 주요 정책 및 산업별 수요
2. 인도의 GVC 관련 주요 정책 및 산업별 수요
3. 소결

제5장 한국의 신남방지역 GVC 구축 현황 분석: 전기전자, 자동차 및 기계, 섬유ㆍ의류 중심
1. 아세안과의 GVC 구축 현황 분석
2. 인도
3. 소결

제6장 일본의 신남방지역 GVC 구축 사례와 전략
1. 일본기업의 아세안과 인도 생산 네트워크 분석
2. 신남방지역 내 일본의 생산 네트워크 성공 사례
3. 일본정부의 GVC 활성화를 위한 전략 및 정책
4. 소결

제7장 결론
1. 연구결과 요약
2. 정책 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   ASEAN and India are prominent emerging economies within the global economy. The Korean government is also paying attention to the so-called “New Southern Region” from its perspective (i.e. ASEAN and India), which has high growth potential, and is promoting a policy of expanding trade with the region. However, in light of the decline in trade with the New Southern Region in 2019, it looks difficult to achieve this goal. This is because the internal and external environment surrounding the New Southern Region is not as good as before. The external environment is deteriorating due to such factors as the spread of global protectionism and the global economic slowdown. In addition, trade and investment policies in the New Southern Region are less favorable than before, including intensifying competition, increased production costs, and policy changes such as increased local contents proportion, an emphasis on technology transfer, and pressure to improve trade imbalance with Korea. Due to these environmental changes, it is becoming more important to find ways to expand and upgrade trade with the New Southern Region. This is also an important task in promoting policies for Korea’s economic cooperation with ASEAN and India based on the principle of co-prosperity, which is the core of Korea’s New Southern Policy.
   Therefore, the study performs various types of GVC analyses in both macro and micro perspectives, which include analysis of the GVC structure of ASEAN and India, GVC-related policy and sector-level demand, the current status of Korea’s GVC structure, and Japan’s GVC network in ASEAN and India. Through this extensive analysis, the study proposes measures on promoting an extension of trade and GVC advancement with the New Southern Region.
   We can summarize the key findings as follows. First, in Chapter 3, we found unique characteristics within the GVC structure in New Southern Policy (NSP) countries. An analysis of data from the world input-output table reveals six characteristics: ① New Southern Policy countries have a higher GVC participation rate compared to other major regions, such as the coverage areas of the RCEP and NAFTA. In particular, NSP countries use foreign intermediate goods in their exports. ② The GVC participation rate in NSP countries has gradually decreased over the years, along with increasing domestic value-added in the exports. The trend indicates the evidence of localization in production. ③ NSP countries show advancement in export items and GVC activities, in the form of many countries in the region starting to produce more intermediate goods exports than final goods. ⑤ The GVC hub of intermediate goods (re)export within NSP countries has been diversified from Malaysia to Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. ⑥ Korea’s GVC status has changed significantly over the years. Korea’s GVC participation rate is higher than other major countries, and its GVC location has increased substantially. Korea has high backward GVC participation, which means Korea uses extensive foreign intermediate goods in its exports. The improvement of Korea’s GVC location implies that Korea’s intermediate goods exports have risen over time. The major destinations of Korea’s value-added exports are Vietnam, Singapore, India, and Indonesia. Among these countries, Korea is vertically integrated with Vietnam and Singapore.
   Second, in Chapter 3, we propose country/industry-specific potential cooperation possibilities with New Southern Policy countries. The cooperation with ASEAN and India is important for Korea to expand its GVC network and promote efficient production through international specialization. To identify Korean industries with a comparative advantage at the international level and high growth potential in NSP countries, the study performs various analyses, including an analysis of value-added comparative advantage, GVC-related policy, and sector-level demand. First, the value-added comparative advantage analysis reveals that Korea has comparative advantages in the areas of Coke, Refined Petroleum and Nuclear Fuel, Chemicals and Chemical Products, Electrical and Optical Equipment, and Transport Equipment. Among these industries, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam have either comparative advantages or high backward GVC participation in the Coke, Refined Petroleum and Nuclear Fuel sector, Vietnam in Chemicals and Chemical Products, the Philippines and Vietnam in Electrical and Optical Equipment, and India and Thailand in Transport Equipment. The country-industry matching indicates potential cooperation chances between Korea and NSP countries.
   To supplement the matching above, in Chapter 4, we conduct additional analysis on GVC-related policy and industry-specific demand. We choose seven countries which have an economically significant domestic market (Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and India) for the analysis. We analyze each country’s national industry development scheme, five major industries (focused on manufacturing sector), and distinguish high-growth potential industries to propose specific industries for potential cooperation between Korea and NSP countries. Korea has a potential cooperation possibility in the Food, Beverage and Tobacco industry in all seven countries. More specifically, Korea has better cooperation chances with Indonesia in Coke, Refined Petroleum, Chemicals, and Chemical products, Basic Metals and Fabricated Metal industries, with Myanmar in Textiles and Textile Products, Construction parts, and Consumer Product industries, with the Philippines in Chemicals and Chemical products, Telecommunication Device (Radio, TV), and Construction parts industries, with Thailand in Coke, Refined Petroleum, and Rubber and Plastics industries, with Vietnam for Textiles and Textile Products, Leather Products, Computer, Office and Telecommunication Device, Basic Metal, Other Non-Metallic Mineral, Wood Products, and Rubber and Plastics industries, with India in Coke, Refined Petroleum, Chemicals, and Chemical Products, Basic Metal, Pharmaceutical products, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, Transport Equipment industries.
   Third, in Chapter 5, we examine the current status of Korea’s GVC structure in the New Southern Region. In the case of ASEAN, we surveyed Korean electronics, automobiles, machinery, textiles and clothing companies in Vietnam and Indonesia, and automobiles and electronics companies in India. Our analysis identified the five following features. ① In the area of procurement of raw materials and parts in ASEAN, Korean companies are procuring the largest proportion of their demands from Korean sources, followed by local and Chinese sources. ② In the case of trading partners, electric, electronic, automobiles, and machinery companies are engaged in active transactions with their affiliates and Korean subcontractors in ASEAN. ③ The most important factors to consider when procuring local raw materials and parts were price competitiveness, followed by meeting and shortening delivery deadlines, and the demands of major customers. ④ In the case of entry into the market, electric, electronic, automobile and machinery companies mainly aim to expand sales in ASEAN, followed by exports to the Korean market. ⑤ The most representative obstacles to GVC construction of Korean companies are the lack of quality competitiveness and technological competence of local companies, followed by lack of logistics infrastructure, lack of parts or diversity, lack of cultural or language communication, and shortage of necessary workers.
   Next, ① India's procurement structure for Korean companies entering India shows that local Korean automakers and auto parts manufacturers have a high proportion of local procurement because the auto industry has a well-established local production network. On the other hand, the electronics industry has a relatively high proportion of import procurement due to the lack of production network in India. ② In the case of Korean companies entering India, automakers are expanding their exports of Indian products. In the electronics industry, on the other hand, exports of Indian products are just beginning. ③ Korean companies are experiencing difficulties in establishing GVCs in India due to difficulties in co-operation with local companies, poor infrastructure, and frequent policy changes.
   Fourth, in Chapter 6, we investigate the case of Japan successfully building GVC in the New Southern Region. The characteristics of the Japanese GVC construction in the New Southern Region are as follows. ① In terms of procurement of raw materials and parts, the proportion of local procurement is higher than that of Korea, and transactions with local companies and Japanese companies entering the market are also active. ② By industry, GVC construction is relatively active in the fields of electrical, electronics, machinery, and automobiles. This is because the company has a long history of entry and many companies have entered the market. In particular, there are many “anchor companies” leading production bases and global production network (GPN), and there are many Japanese companies that cooperate with these anchor companies. ③ Many Japanese companies that have entered ASEAN are rebuilding their production bases in light of changes in the global business environment and expansion of ASEAN economic integration. The most representative one is the Thai Plus One strategy.
   Meanwhile, in the case of product sales, Japanese firms that have entered the New Southern Region have a higher share of the local market than Korean firms. This is because not only transactions with local companies but also B2B transactions with many local Japanese companies are active. Japanese companies can successfully build GVCs in the New Southern Region thanks to various support and policies by the Japanese government. Representative policies include: active use of ODA to support local companies to reduce service linkage costs, improve location comparison advantages, build production networks, etc.; supporting industrial development and private sectors in developing countries; developing and supporting human resources development and technology transfer; identifying and addressing difficulties for local Japanese companies, including the establishment of GVCs.
   Finally, in Chapter 7, we present policy implications for expanding and upgrading Korea's trade in the value chain. First, three policy directions are presented. ① In terms of GVC construction direction, the production network and GVC should be expanded in the New Southern Region. This is accompanied by an increase in Korea's exports of intermediate goods, components, and materials for local production, and furthermore, Korea imports these intermediate goods and final goods which are produced in the New Southern Region, leading to increased trade. ② In the case of the production network and the GVC expansion method, it is first necessary to diversify the GVC base currently concentrated in Vietnam to India, Indonesia and Thailand. In addition, value chains should be upgraded and differentiated in the New Southern Region. In Vietnam, Korea's main production network and GVC base in ASEAN, Korea should expand to other industries such as chemicals and automobiles in addition to the electronics industry. In the case of labor-intensive industries, it is necessary to induce relocation to neighboring countries such as Cambodia and Myanmar, where labor costs are relatively low. This could be a Vietnam + 1 strategy. In addition, it is necessary to expand the GVC centering on the electronic, petrochemical and automotive sectors, which Korea has strength in the New Southern Region, and to expand and strengthen the regional linkage of the GVC. ③ When expanding investment in the New Southern Region to strengthen GVC, it is necessary to select investment sectors and support these sectors in consideration of Korea's comparative advantage, participation in the local value chain, local GVC-related policies and industrial demand.
   Next, we propose some policy measures to achieve this policy direction. First, ODA should be strategically used to foster local infrastructure, industrial complexes development, and training high-tech workers. Next, trade and investment agencies such as KOTRA and the Korea International Trade Association need to strengthen their GVC consulting capabilities for local Korean companies. And bilateral and multilateral FTAs, which are effective in expanding and upgrading trade, should be expanded, and FTAs already signed will need to be upgraded. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the mechanisms for investigating and discovering and identifying the overall difficulties, including the establishment of GVCs by local Korean companies.

국문요약 

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경
2. 연구의 목적
3. 보고서 개요

제2장 선행연구
1. 원청-하청 거래관계의 유형
2. 관계특수성(relation-specificity)
3. 기회주의적 행위에 대한 해결 방안
4. 신뢰

제3장 완성차기업-부품기업 간 거래관계에 대한 이론적 틀
1. 기본모형: 시장거래(arm’s length trade)ㆍ일회성 거래(one-shot transaction)
2. 관계계약(relational contract)ㆍ반복거래(repeated transaction)
3. 수직통합(vertical integration)

제4장 세계 자동차 부품산업 현황 및 완성차기업-부품기업 간 거래관계의 해외 사례
1. 세계 자동차 부품산업 현황
2. 독일 사례
3. 미국 사례

제5장 완성차기업과의 거래관계가 부품기업의 혁신성과에 미친 영향에 대한 실증분석
1. 한국과 미국
2. 한국에 대한 추가 분석
3. 소결

제6장 결론 및 정책시사점
1. 연구결과 요약
2. 정책시사점
3. 연구의 한계

참고문헌

부록 횡단면 분석

Executive Summary

   This study analyzes the impact of buyer-supplier relation on supplier’s innovation in the automobile industry. Following previous studies, this study categorizes the buyer-supplier relation into 3 types: market transaction (or one-shot transaction); relational contract (or repeated transaction); and vertical integration. These 3 types differ from one another in such aspects as the level of relation-specific investments by supplier, the distribution of bargaining power and the degree of information sharing and trust. This study first presents a theoretical framework for these 3 types of the relation in Chapter 3, which then serves as a guideline for the case studies and empirical analyses that follow. Chapter 4 looks at the cases of Germany and the U.S., aiming to shed some light on the determinants of the relation type. Chapter 5 estimates the impact of the buyer-supplier relation, especially of the degree of dispersion of supplier’s sales, on the supplier’s innovation outcomes, using the data from Korea and the U.S. Based on these results, Chapter 6 discusses policy implications for the relationship between the Innovative Growth policy and the Fair Economy policy, two of the main economic policies of the Moon Jae-in administration, focusing on the automobile industry.
   The main predictions of the theoretical model is as following. First, when the buyer-supplier relation takes the form of market transaction, that is, when the buyer and the supplier play a one-shot game, they are likely to encounter an under-investment problem, in which the supplier does not undertake socially-optimal relation- specific investment. The importance of the relation-specific investment on the buyer worsens this problem, while the transferability of the investment for an alternative buyer reduces it. Secondly, the under-investment problem can be lessened when the relation takes the form of relational contract, that is, when the buyer and the supplier play an infinitely-repeated game. The room for such an improvement increases with the transferability of the investment for an alternative buyer and the importance of the investment for the buyer, but decreases with the investment cost. Finally, vertical integration can also mitigate the problem. That is, ceteris paribus, the problem is less serious when the buyer and the supplier coordinate to maximize their combined profits. Unlike relational contract, there is more room for an improvement by vertical integration when the transferability of the investment is lower.
   In the case studies, this study first looks at the current state of the automobile parts industry in the world, focusing on business performance and R&D investment. Germany, Japan and the U.S. are 3 leading countries, while Korea lags far behind them. Interestingly, supplier’s business performance is positively correlated with the degree of dispersion of its sales across regions, which is in line with the theoretical prediction. The 3 best-performing countries also invest the most in R&D. The R&D expenditures of a supplier, both in absolute and relative-relative to physical investment-terms are also positively correlated with its regional dispersion of sales.
   The German automobile parts industry not only performs best in business and innovation and invests the most in R&D, but also has the longest history. Innovations are often initiated by suppliers, rather than car makers. The deep trust between buyer and supplier, as well as the latter’s high bargaining power resulted from the successful history of supplier-driven innovations, appear to be main contributors to the success of the German suppliers.
   The U.S. has the most top performing suppliers in the world, but its buyer-supplier relation differs from the German case. In particular, the history of the buyer-supplier relation in the U.S. shows all 3 types; and the prevailing type changed from a combination of market transaction and vertical integration to relational contract. At the beginning, the U.S. automobile industry had many small car makers but later became an oligopoly of the Big 3: Ford, GM and Chrysler. Using market transactions and vertical integration at the same time, the Big 3 retained a high bargaining power vis-à-vis suppliers until 1970s. The mass invasion by Japanese cars increased competition in the U.S. market; and, at the same time, innovations in the electronics industry started being adopted in cars. These changes increased the need for innovations, and hence for a smooth flow of information between buyer and supplier, which resulted in a wide acceptance of relational contract.
   The empirical analysis of this study finds that the dispersion of sales of a supplier increases its innovation outcome, both in Korea and the U.S. In other words, a supplier innovates more when its sales are more dispersed among more buyers. This finding supports the theoretical prediction that the supplier’s incentive for relation-specific investment, and hence for innovation, increases with the transferability of the investment. This relation is further analyzed, using the additional information available only in the Korean data on the means of payment-cash or credit-and the supplier’s with a buyer, for instance. The results reveal that payment in credit negatively affects the supplier’s innovation outcome. This finding supports the Korean government’s concern on payment in credit in buyer-supplier transactions. The Korean data also shows that the aforementioned impact of sales dispersion on supplier’s innovation outcome is conditioned by such factors as the supplier’s asset size and affiliation.

국문요약 

제1장 서론

제2장 TBT의 국제적 논의 동향
1. WTO 논의 동향
2. OECD 논의 동향
3. 학술연구 동향
4. 소결

제3장 WTO TBT 분쟁 및 STC와 FTA TBT 규범 동향
1. WTO TBT 분쟁
2. WTO TBT 특정무역현안
3. CPTPP 및 USMCA 내 TBT 규범의 발전 동향
4. 소결

제4장 해외 TBT에 따른 우리나라의 수출 효과 분석
1. 전 세계 TBT 추이와 특징
2. TBT 측정방법과 데이터
3. 이론적 배경과 실증분석모형
4. 실증분석 결과
5. 소결

제5장 TBT 무역자유화 협정의 수출 효과 분석
1. DESTA 자료 설명
2. 실증분석모형 및 데이터
3. 실증분석 결과
4. 소결

제6장 결론 및 정책적 시사점
1. 전체 연구결과 요약
2. 우리나라 TBT 대응조직의 현황과 특징
3. 정책적 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary

   This study focuses on the issue of technical barriers to trade (TBT) as the trend of trade policy has shifted to NTM-oriented protectionism, especially in developed countries since the late 2000s. Since Jang et al. (2011), Korea’s first comprehensive study on TBT, many TBT studies have been conducted in Korea. However, there was no comprehensive study covering international legal, administrative, political and economic analysis, including a proposal of organizational structure of the government bodies dealing with TBTs. In this regard, this study examines international discussion trends, trade disputes and current issues, and the main contents of the FTA TBT Agreement, using newly released TBT data since 2010, and conducted empirical analysis through newly developed quantitative methodology.
   In Chapter 2, we illustrate the current discussion on TBT at the international level, focusing on international organizations such as WTO and OECD. Discussions on TBTs are mainly led by developed countries such as the US or EU. General characteristics derived from the analysis are as follows. First, practical and specific ways to implement and apply the WTO TBT agreement has been proposed. The WTO pushes ahead the application of Regulatory Impact Assessment and Good Regulatory Practice, standardization of the notification form, establishment of electronic notification system, enhancement of transparency by establishing inquiry points at each country and providing 90 days of notification period. Second, the WTO seeks to provide technical assistance to developing countries and to enhance SDT(Special and Differential Treatment) encouraging the participation of developed countries. Third, there are more active discussions on how to apply international standards to solve TBT concerns. However, disagreement on the scope and definition on international standards between the US and EU remains and establishment of international standards is still relatively slow compared to the rapid development of existing industries and the advent of the new industries. Fourth, due to the aforementioned difficulties of reaching an agreement on standards, post-accreditation system based on market surveillance will become prevalent through voluntary standards and SDoC(Supplier Declaration of Conformity). Fifth, OECD attempts to tackle TBT concerns based on a comprehensive guideline for cooperation between stakeholders. This guideline, International Regulatory Cooperation(IRC), is classified by 11 forms. Among the 11 forms, the most frequently used mechanism is Mutual Recognition Agreements(MRAs). Quantitative studies also show that MRAs significantly eliminate trade barriers and facilitate trade confirming the effectiveness of MRAs.
   Chapter 3 examines the main contents and characteristics of TBT provisions in regional trade agreements from the perspective of international law, focusing on the WTO TBT dispute, the current status and features of specific trade concerns(STCs), and the CPTPP and USMCA. Since the main goal of technical regulations and standards introduced by each country is to achieve legitimate policy purposes such as providing safety, health, environment, and consumer information, there is a fundamental difficulty solving the TBT issues through legal review procedures by the panel and appellate body provided by the WTO Dispute Settlement System. As a result, even though the WTO dispute settlement process has been initiated on TBT issues, most cases are resolved by mutual consultation. In this context, the STC process of the WTO TBT Committee is a practical and important system for solving TBT issues. In Korea, more than 70% of cases of STC are raised together with many other countries. In order to enhance the effectiveness of the STC process, the response capacity in terms of multilateral cooperation should be strengthened.
   The FTA TBT negotiations were generally aimed to strengthen transparency and cooperation to eliminate TBT, based on the rules and procedures of the WTO TBT Agreement. Korea has removed TBT by recognizing the equivalence of technical regulations or by introducing SDoC in the automotive, electrical and electronic sectors in the Korea-US FTA and Korea-EU FTA negotiations while labeling provisions has been introduced in Korea-China FTA. The TBT provisions of the US-led TPP(now CPTPP) and USMCA include the institutional elements that are not included as WTO or existing FTA’s TBT provisions. In particular, it has led to the opening of testing and certification services sector by making official the use of international accreditation systems related to conformity assessment and prohibiting the requirement that conformity assessment bodies to be within the territory of importing countries. In addition, the two agreements show that the strategy of eliminating specific technical barriers based on the sectoral approach has been actively used. In particular, the USMCA-related Annex contains new rules with the advent of the digital economy, including the prevention of technology transfers in the information and telecommunications sector. This has important implications for the negotiation of digital trade rules as a TBT system.
   In Chapter 4, we conduct an empirical study to assess the effect of TBTs on Korea’s exports based on disaggregated export data at HS4 along with new TBT data and export quality index during 1996~2014. The TBT data is the newly released「wiiw NTM」which minimizes the problem of sample selection because a significant share of TBT notifications do not report relevant HS codes. We examine the trade effects of TBT based on the gravity model, and use PPML to avoid the problem of sample selection due to zero trade. Empirical results show that technical regulations adversely affect Korea’s exports on average while this effect becomes larger after the Global Financial Crisis. This suggests that the negative effects may be led by the protectionist sentiment. Also, we find that TBTs by countries with higher income than Korea decreased Korea’s exports while TBTs by lower income countries actually led to more exports. The adverse effects of TBT are possibly because TBT by higher income countries require higher compliance cost. Lastly, including an additional explanatory variable, export quality index in our specification, we find that TBT actually increases Korea’s exports possibly because it mitigates the problem of asymmetric information between consumers and producers.
   Chapter 5 empirically studies how the characteristics of TBT provisions in FTAs affect international trade during 1990~2016. The empirical model is based on a gravity equation that controls for multilateral resistance terms by including exporter-year, importer-year dummies. To estimate the model, we use trade data and DESTA data that compile TBT provisions from multiple FTAs. We find that TBT provisions do increase trade between countries while the extent of the increase differs by how TBT provisions are included in FTAs. Empirical results show that FTAs that reaffirm the WTO TBT agreement has limited effects on trade while FTAs with TBT provisions that encourage the use of international standards or harmonization of TBT significantly increases trade. Examining this effect between groups of countries classified by income, we find that TBT provisions that encourage the use of international standards or harmonization of TBT have especially larger effects between developed and developing countries. We further show that the effect of TBT provisions that encourage the use of international standards decreased more recently during 2012~2016, while the effect of harmonization increased since 2007.  
   Summing up all results in previous chapters, we provide policy implications in Chapter 6. Korea currently has the official TBT organization which consists of two parts, the TBT Central Secretariat and the TBT Consortium: Korean Agency for Technology and Standards(KATS) manages the former, while private associations and public certificate institutions constitute the latter. We propose future plans and strategic approaches for TBT such as strengthening capacity in international organization, using the FTA TBT provisions, flexibly corresponding to foreign technical regulations at country-and/or sector-level, and improving domestic technical regulations and certificate systems according to international standards. In the long term, the official TBT organization in Korea also needs structural reform to be adequate for plans and strategies that we proposed.