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Searching for a New Balance in the Complexities of the U.S.-China-Korea Triangle in the New Era of Xi Jinping International security, International politics

Author Duck-Koo Chung, Jun-Young Kang, Young Hee Chang, Jung A Pyun, and Dain Yoo Series 23-37 Language Korean Date 2024.07.29

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In the context of the prolonged and structured U.S.-China strategic competition, the three countries which we examine - the United States, China, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) - must find ways to maximize their respective national interests and value. Nevertheless, due to a lack of mutual understanding between the three countries, they are focusing on attacking each other’s vulnerabilities rather than on long-term strategies for cooperation and competition, thus maximizing their costs. This study is motivated by the need to discuss an approach that conceptualizes the U.S.-China-ROK triangle as a multi-dimensional matrix to address these issues.

This study aims to examine points of conflict and interdependence within the trilateral relationship between the Republic of Korea, the United States, and China. As the dynamics in the trilateral relationship become more complex, progress can be limited and strategic planning becomes more challenging. Thus, this study begins with the premise that it is difficult to perform three-dimensional analysis by examining only the interaction of the three bilateral relationships that form a triangle. In addition to demonstrating the demand for each other, as well as conflicts that may result from consideration of core interests in the interaction of bilateral relations, this study seeks to explore the possibility of stereoscopic and three-dimensional analysis of trilateral relations as a whole.

Building upon this study, the United States and Republic of Korea should work in the direction of expanding their intersecting areas while reducing areas of divergence. The ROK’s strategy should be to increase convergence with the United States and decrease divergence with China. By doing so, it can expand the space for coexistence with China and strengthen its trust relationship with the United States. With the intersection of the U.S.-Korea relationship expanding, it is natural for crises in the Sino-Korea relationship to arise, but there are gaps and places of coexistence within the U.S.-China strategic competition if the parties understand each other’s priorities and red lines and expand the intersections within Korea-China relations.

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