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Policy Analyses
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The Current Status of the Energy Industry in China and Souggestion for Korea
The Current Status of the Energy Industry in China and Suggestion for Korea Euihyun Choi The Energy industry, as a leading industry, supports economic growth, and makes up a large portion of the national economy. Particularly for..
Eui-Hyun Choi Date 1997.12.30
Energy industryDownloadContentSummaryThe Current Status of the Energy Industry in China and Suggestion for Korea Euihyun Choi The Energy industry, as a leading industry, supports economic growth, and makes up a large portion of the national economy. Particularly for a rapidly growing, developing country like China, the energy industry plays a very important role. In this respect, cooperation in the energy sector between Korea and China should promote mutual economic development.
As a geographically large country, China is endowed with diverse and enormous energy resources. However with a population exceeding 1.2 billion people, China's per capita energy resources are relatively small. As China's economy expanded, so too did its demand for energy. Total energy demand in China in 1993 was the third highest in the world, nearly double its 1978 level. In an effort to underpin its future economic growth, China today is embarking on a major energy development program that will likely present tremendous opportunities to foreign companies in coal mining, electric power generation, oil production, refining and distribution, and supplying the required equipment for constructon.
At present, there already appear to be opportunities galore for foreign firms interested in China's energy industry. With strong economic growth seemingly a given, Chinese government authorities and foreign companies have already negotiated a variety of cooperative deals, and more are in the works.
This report studies the status of the energy industry, related systems, and policies on FDI in China, and based on the reports conclusion, makes suggestions for Korean companies interested in the energy industry in China. -
Background and Prospects for the Indonesian Financial Crisis
Background and Prospects for The Indonesian Financial Crisis Wanjoong Kim Indonesian financial market has rapidly grown in quantity since 1980's. The ratio of total financial institution assets plus securities(TFA) to GDP has ris..
Wan-Joong Kim Date 1997.12.30
Financial crisis, Financial policyDownloadContentSummaryBackground and Prospects for The Indonesian Financial Crisis Wanjoong Kim Indonesian financial market has rapidly grown in quantity since 1980's. The ratio of total financial institution assets plus securities(TFA) to GDP has risen from about 50% of GDP in 1980 to 124% of GDP in 1994. But that market has many structural problems in efficiency and stability. These problems has become major causes of economic crises in 1997.
Indonesia's current economic crisis can be traced to expanding current account deficit, growing external debt and problems in the financial sector, in particular weak banking system. Indonesian banks have been weakened by imprudent lending booms, asset price collapses, increasing bank liabilities with large maturity/ currency mismatches, inadequate preparation for financial liberali- zation and insufficient government management.
Facing economic crisis, Indonesia requested aid from the IMF (International Monetary Fund), which along with the United States, other countries promised a $43 billion credit bailout on the condition of economic reform. The Indonesian government has already announced measures to cut tariffs, reform the financial sector and abolish the monopoly of the National Logistics Agency (Bulog). The IMF is placing special emphasis on financial reform in Indonesia, which, in turn has ordered the closure of 16 banks, established the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA), and allowed foreigners to own 100% equity of firms in all sectors.
In spite of the IMF program, Indonesia's economic situation has not improved significantly, due primarily to the Indonesian government's failure to implement the IMF program faithfuly. The only way for Indonesia to overcome its economic crisis is to show strong will to reform to investors and creditors. In this way, Indonesia could restore confidence in its economy, thereby stabilizing the currency, increasing exports, and allowing Indonesia to repay external debt. -
Current Status and Prospects of CIS Economic integration
Current Status and Prospects of CIS Economic Integration Sung-Kyu Lee, Pyeong-Hee Choi The study is designed to analyze progress, current issues and prospects of CIS economic integration. Particular attention is paid to the impli..
Seong-Kyu Lee et al. Date 1997.12.30
Economic integrationDownloadContentSummaryCurrent Status and Prospects of CIS Economic Integration Sung-Kyu Lee, Pyeong-Hee Choi The study is designed to analyze progress, current issues and prospects of CIS economic integration. Particular attention is paid to the implications of CIS economic integration for Korean firms.
After the collapse of Soviet Union, the 12-former Soviet Republics established the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to revive economic, trade and financial links between them. But the leaders of CIS countries have varied in their commitment and interest in regional economic integration, thus stifling any real progress in multilateral cooperation.
Because of this problem, the former Soviet states are founding new economic blocs within the CIS: the Russia-Belarusian Union, the Quadrilateral Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), the Central Asian Economic Union (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), and GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova). The recognition that CIS countries need to unite in a more powerful integrated grouping to achieve an upturn in the economy will become more pronounced in the future.
Since the conclusion of the treaty of friendship between Korea and the Soviet Union, Korea has continued to increase investment into the CIS market. However, Korean firms have limited their investment to Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Thus, before the CIS develops into a complete economic union, Korean firms must work out new sales strategies and gradually increase participation in CIS local markets. -
Foreign Investment in Oil & Gas of Central Asia
Foreign Investment in Oil & Gas of Central Asia Cheolwon Lee Central Asia, rich in crude oil and natural gas deposits, possesses vast and untapped development potential. Though the nearby Middle East is better known for sitti..
Cheol-Won Lee Date 1997.12.30
Energy industryDownloadContentSummaryForeign Investment in Oil & Gas of Central Asia Cheolwon Lee Central Asia, rich in crude oil and natural gas deposits, possesses vast and untapped development potential. Though the nearby Middle East is better known for sitting on top of most of the world's natural resources, the Caspian region itself contains richer oil reserves (100 billion barrels) than the recently fought over reserves in Kuwait (97 billion barrels).
In the 19th century, the British and Russian empires clashed in the Great Game, fiercely jousting over control of Central Asia and its riches. Now, at stake is the world's third largest deposit of oil and gas, and the players are the Russians and the Americans. Recent instability in the Middle East has highlighted the need for securing other safe sources of these natural resources. Accordingly, the U.S. government has declared the Caspian region an area of strategic interest and U.S. oil companies have flooded into the local market.
Because Korea depends heavily on oil produced in the Middle East (77 per cent), the health of her economy rests precariously on the region's stability. In order to wean itself from this dependency, Korean firms should actively participate in oil and gas projects in Central Asia. In this context, this study investigates recent activities in Central Asia by Western companies, and based on this, offers suggestions as to how the Korean government and business sector can make meaningful inroads via oil and gas projects. -
The Current Status of the Mekong Basin Development Project and Korea's Strategy
The Current Status of the Mekong Basin Development Project and Korea's Strategy Jaewoan Cheong, Kyoungdoug Kwon The Mekong, is one of the world's longest rivers and runs through six nations China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodi..
Jae-Won Cheong Date 1997.12.30
Economic development, Economic cooperationDownloadContentSummaryThe Current Status of the Mekong Basin Development Project and Korea's Strategy Jaewoan Cheong, Kyoungdoug Kwon The Mekong, is one of the world's longest rivers and runs through six nations China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam emerging rapidly as "the region of opportunity". This region is rich in natural resources such as hydro power, coal, oil, gas and lumber, and possesses abundant quality human resources.
These six countries that border the Mekong river share similar cultural characteristics. All of them, except Thailand, have accepted capitalistic market economies only recently and now they are propelling rapid, open-door reforms and development policies. In line with these policies, the possibility of joint development has been carefully discussed since the late 1980s.
The Mekong Development Project requires cooperation in several basic setors: traffic, energy, communication, trade and investment. These SOC construction projects, including the TAR (Trans-Asia Railway) Project, make for an extremely attractive market.
From the mid-1990s, Korea has taken a growing interest in the Mekong Development Project. When the Project commenced several years ago, a few Korean enterprises were involved in developing roads and power plants. Also, Korea competed with developed countries like Japan, the U.S. and others in Europe through credits or grants.
It seems that East Asia's recent financial crisis will present serious setback to Mekong Basin Development Project. But, remarkable developmental potential of this area is quite clear, considering that all of the basin nations are growing rapidly with the help of aid from various assistance organizations and foreign capital from foreign companies. Korea needs to actively participate in this project in anticipation of long-term and prosperous partnership with Southeast Asian countries. -
Oil and Gas Transportation System in Russia
Oil and Gas Transportation System in Russia Seungweon Suh Russia hosts the world's largest production of natural gas and third largest production of crude oil. Accordingly, Russia's export of these natural resources plays a decis..
Seung-Weon Suh Date 1997.12.30
Energy industryDownloadContentSummaryOil and Gas Transportation System in Russia Seungweon Suh Russia hosts the world's largest production of natural gas and third largest production of crude oil. Accordingly, Russia's export of these natural resources plays a decisive role in the world energy market. Driven by higher market prices abroad than back home, Russian government and business sector have also taken a keen interest in exporting their oil & gas resources.
However, Russia's oil & gas exports have not expanded according to expectations. This has been due to various transportation related problems, including limited capacity of pipelines and ports, a rapid increase in transportation costs and worn-out infrastructure. Although the Russian government and foreign companies are trying to improve transportation capacity of oil & gas, they have run into snags such as limited funds and conflict of interests.
Korea, highly dependent on foreign natural energy resources, has inherent interest in diversifying its oil & gas import routes. From this viewpoint, Korea needs to secure access to Russia's energy supply in order to satisfy and stabilize demand over the long-run. In this context, this study investigates oil & gas transportation system of Russia, and based on this, offers suggestions as to how the Korean government and business sector can import oil & gas from Russia. -
Implications of APEC Trade Liberalization on the OECD Countries: An empirical Analysis Based on a CGE Model (97.12)
Over the past decade, globalization has been a pervasive trend in almost all economies. The word economy is becoming increasingly interdependent, deepening and intensifying international linkages, most notably in trade. As trade e..
Inkyo Cheong et al. Date 1997.12.30
Economic opening, Trade policyDownloadContentSummaryOver the past decade, globalization has been a pervasive trend in almost all economies. The word economy is becoming increasingly interdependent, deepening and intensifying international linkages, most notably in trade. As trade expands among nations throughout the world, integration of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies with non-OECD economies has become a salient feature of the global economy.
This study identified the possible long-term effect of APEC's trade liberalization commitments on real GDP and trade across regions, both inside and outside the APEC area, and on employment by production sector in each region using a multiregion, multisector, computational general equilibrium (CGE) model.
One of the key finding from our empirical work is the impacts of trade liberalization and facilitation measures in the APEC region have turned out to be significant at least in direction if not in magnitude, throughout OECD as well as non-OECD economies. In particular, because agricultural liberalization and trade facilitation are incorporated in our experiment, the impact stemming from liberalization in these areas turned out to be substantially important. -
The Korea's Strategies for FDI and ODA toward Vietnam
The Korea's Strategies for FDI and ODA toward Vietnam Jaewoan Cheong The economy of Vietnam has gone through many remarkable changes through the introduction of 'Doi-Moi' policy in 1986. These changes include high economic growth..
Jae-Won Cheong Date 1997.12.30
Economic reform, Foreign investmentDownloadContentSummaryThe Korea's Strategies for FDI and ODA toward Vietnam Jaewoan Cheong The economy of Vietnam has gone through many remarkable changes through the introduction of 'Doi-Moi' policy in 1986. These changes include high economic growth, the removal of embargo by developed countries, the re-establishment of its relationship with the USA, the improvement of the foreign investment environment, and its joining of ASEAN, etc. However, Vietnam still urgently needs further improvements and expansion of its overall infrastructure, such as developing its roads, railroads, ports, telecommunications and electronic manufacturing sector in order to continue its current high economic growth rate in the future. Therefore, Vietnam needs more ODA and FDI from other countries.
Now, Korea has emerged the fifth largest FDI nation into Vietnam, and Vietnam has become as one of the highest receivers of Korea's ODA programs since relations were re-established between the two countries in 1992.
Our government needs to positively cope with changes in the world economy and to adjust the industrial structure within Korea. This means essentially that Korea should need expand economic cooperation with developing countries such as Vietnam in trade, investment and ODA. In regard to the scale of the Korean economy and the potential of Vietnamese economy, not only should the scale of economic cooperation be strengthened, but the efficiency of ODA and FDI between the two countries should be considered. -
The Current Status of the Vietnamese Economic Reform and the Economic Outlook
The Current Status of the Vietnamese Economic Reform and the Economic Outlook Jaewoan Cheong In 1986, the Government of Vietnam launched the 'Doi Moi', a comprehensive reform program to respond to severe macroeconomic instability..
Jae-Wan Cheong Date 1997.12.30
Economic reform, Economic outlookDownloadContentSummaryThe Current Status of the Vietnamese Economic Reform and the Economic Outlook Jaewoan Cheong In 1986, the Government of Vietnam launched the 'Doi Moi', a comprehensive reform program to respond to severe macroeconomic instability, economic stagnation and growing rural hunger. This reform was aimed at building a multi-sector economy by recognizing and formalizing the role of the private sector, opening the economy to foreign trade and investment, and returning to a system of smallholder agriculture.
The 'Doi Moi' program has restored stability, accelerated growth at 8 9 percent in the 1990s, and attracted public and private foreign capital commitments unprecedented in Vietnam's history. Also, inflation has dramatically dropped from close to 400 percent in 1988 to 19 percent in 1995, to about 5 percent in 1996 due to tight fiscal and monetary policies as well as falling food prices.
But, recent external developments have significantly clouded the external environment facing Vietnam. East asia is currently in the midst of an unprecedented currency and financial crisis. Vietnam is likely to face a much less favorable external environment which will make sustaining the rapid growth of the past several years more difficult. Nevertheless, consensus opinions seem to suggest that Vietnam can achieve its primary medium-term growth (9 percent) and development objectives of high economic growth.
Achieving these objectives will therefore require a strong domestic policy stance, including appropriate macroeconomic policies and an acceleration of structural reforms, paralleled by continued strong donor support. -
Economic Impact of Foreign Debt in Korea
Korea has recently experienced a rapid increase of total external debt and a predominance of short-term loans. Instead of the level of debt itself, the debt structure and the increase in the growth rate of debt are the most import..
Sang-In Hwang Date 1997.12.30
Financial crisisDownloadContentSummaryKorea has recently experienced a rapid increase of total external debt and a predominance of short-term loans. Instead of the level of debt itself, the debt structure and the increase in the growth rate of debt are the most important factors involved in the current debt crisis.
The empirical analysis on Korea's foreign debt indicates that an increase in the growth of debt is harmful to Korea's economy and that total external debt may not be sustainable. The result of the sustainability test implies that the gradual reduction of foreign debt to a certain level is desirable. In order to decrease the foreign debt, Korea needs to increase its current account surplus, either by increasing savings or by decreasing investment, and increase foreign direct investment through deregulation.
The structural problems associated with a rapid increase in debt are: accumulation of current account deficits; over-investment; a large amount of bank liabilities due to government intervention; labor market inflexibility; and a loss of policy credibility. These contribute directly or indirectly to the tremendous increases of foreign debt.
The current debt crisis was difficult to predict because it was caused by complex economic, financial and political events. For the efficient debt management, a possible solution is to set up an early warning system that can predict debt crisis. It is necessary for the government at this point to improve the national debt management system in order to monitor and manage the scale and structure of outstanding debt. Then, Korea will be able to track down the flow of its debt structures and trends. In this way, Korea can plan and prepare well in advance to prevent future debt problems.
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