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Currency Crisis and Difficulties for Overseas Affiliates: A Case Study on the Restructuring of Korean Affiliates in the United Kingdom
Currency Crisis and Difficulities for Overseas Affiliates: A Case Study on the Restructuring of Korean Affiliates in the United Kingdom Dongwha Shin Since 1990s, Korean firms have pushed active FDI moves to Europe. Especially the ..
Dongwha Shin Date 1998.12.21
Business managementDownloadContentSummaryCurrency Crisis and Difficulities for Overseas Affiliates: A Case Study on the Restructuring of Korean Affiliates in the United Kingdom Dongwha Shin
Since 1990s, Korean firms have pushed active FDI moves to Europe. Especially the U.K., among other European countries, has attracted FDI most, owing to its well-developed investment climates and efforts of U.K. government. However, things are changing after the financial crisis of Korea. Korean companies' overseas affiliates operating in the U.K. come to unable to afford financing the necessary capital from the parent companies nor from the local banks in the U.K. In the extreme cases, owing to the parent companies' bankruptcy, some affiliates are stopping their operations. Other companies are moving production lines to Eastern Europe to reduce labor costs. Practically every affiliate has been undergoing restructuring in a way to adjust to the changed environment. Nevertheless, patterns and processes of restructuring were not identical across affiliates.
Factors determining those patterns and processes can be categorized into three levels: corporate level, industry level, and regional level. Firstly, factors in the corporate level can make a profound influence on the restructuring process. For example, if a parent company goes bankruptcy, then in most cases, foreign affiliates no longer continue their operation. In this case, they can not but to do sell their assets and withdraw from that country. Secondly, factors in the industry level also affect the restructuring process. For example microwave oven market conditions and prospects being favorable, affiliates in this sector can overcome the financial crisis or adverse parent company position, only by increasing their productivity and efficiency with more efficient management and inventory control. But companies in semi-conductor sector where exists oversupply and market prospect is dismal cannot easily circumvent the crisis. So they now put off their whole investment project indefinitely. Finally we can think of factors in the regional level.
Let's take the appreciation of sterling pound for example. Traditionally the labor cost in the U.K. is the lowest among the EU members, and is similar to that of Korea. But things are changing dramatically in the strong sterling pound era. For the Korean affiliate, the merits in operating in the U.K. are disappearing. In this case there are different patterns of restructuring, such as transferring production site to the Eastern Europe and automizing production processes. -
1999 World Economic Outlook
Despite industrial countries concerted policy coordination efforts to prevent a synchronized deep recession of the world economy, there still remain several downside risks that might adversely affect the global economy. The most c..
Yun-Jong Wang Date 1998.12.21
Economic outlookDownloadContentSummaryDespite industrial countries concerted policy coordination efforts to prevent a synchronized deep recession of the world economy, there still remain several downside risks that might adversely affect the global economy. The most conspicuous and significant risks are the possibility of an international liquidity crunch, the potential instability of emerging markets, and the possibility of a further financial meltdown and continued depression in Japan. However, if appropirate policy measures are undertaken, the prospects for the world economy in 1999 are promising.
In 1999, the world economy is poised to bounce back from 1998? 2.0% economic growth to a more benign 2.4% growth. This optimistic forecast is based on a number of recent developments that potentially reduce the risks of a global recession. To begin with, the United States still shows quite strong economic fundamentals. The third recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year successfully ended the credit crunch triggered by the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management which took place just after the Russia? de facto debt default in August. Furthermore, the Dow Jones industrial index, which plunged in late August and September has fully recovered. Waning U.S. consumer confidence also recovered in November on the back of the recovery of stock prices. As consumer spending is two-thirds of the nation's overall economic activity, the rise in consumer confidence indicates that the U.S. economy is unlikely to soon slide into recession.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also delivered an early Christmas gift by participating in concerted interest rate cuts. On December 3rd, ECB reduced the administered interest rates from 3.3% to 3.0%, despite continued denials that it would do so. Although the lower interest rates will not change short-term growth prospects, which are mainly influenced by the slump in foreign demand, they will have a positive influence on business confidence, especially in the financial sector. The successful launching of the Euro, bolstered by lower interest rates will also contribute to economic growth prospects for West Europe and peripherial economies.
The Japanese banking crisis remains one of the largest, if not the single largest, threat to the world economy. While the Obuchi government? financial rescue and fiscal stimulus packages are not fully satisfactory, they may be sufficient to bring at least a temporary end to the Japanese recession in 1999. Meanwhile, non-Japan Asian economies are expected to begin improving late this year or at least in the first half of 1999. Foreign investment is increasing, particularly in Korea and Thailand, and the current account crisis is literally over. The key issue is now whether the recovery will be characterized by a slow U-shaped or a strong V-shaped cyclical rebound. -
Economic Effects of Early Voluntary Sectoral Liberalization on the Korean Economy
Economic Effects of Early Voluntary Sectoral Liberalization on the Korean Economy Jai-Won Ryou, Honggue LeeWe examined the merits of the proposals for early voluntary sectoral liberalization (EVSL) as applied to Korea by consider..
Jai-Won Ryou et al. Date 1998.12.20
Trade policy, Free tradeDownloadContentSummaryEconomic Effects of Early Voluntary Sectoral Liberalization on the Korean Economy Jai-Won Ryou, Honggue Lee
We examined the merits of the proposals for early voluntary sectoral liberalization (EVSL) as applied to Korea by considering their potential effects on welfare and trade flows. For that purpose, we took up 15 commodity sectors for analysis. (For nine of them, the liberalization plan is supposed to be implemented immediately, and, for the remaining six, their liberalization is to be carried out later.)
We first looked at the patterns of comparative advantage of these sectors. According to the revealed comparative indices calculated for the sectors considered, Korea has comparative advantage in fertilizers, automotive, fish and fish products, gems and jewellery. On the other hand, Korea has comparative disadvantage in chemicals, forest products, medical equipment and instruments, food, oilseeds and oilseed products.
Second, we considered the effects of EVSL on trade flows. By eliminating tariffs, EVSL is expected to increase imports in Korea. Our analysis shows that the increase in imports in terms of volume will be greater in automotive, energy, and chemicals sectors than any others, while automotive, food, fish and fish products sectors will experience a most rapid change in imports in terms of growth rates. At the same time, EVSL is likely to increase Korea's chances for more exports to the member countries as many of them constitute Korea's major trading partners and some still have substantial tariff barriers. We anticipate a substantial increase in automotive exports among other items.
Third, we made use of both the conventional surplus measures and the trade restrictiveness indexes in our welfare analysis. In our estimation of the positive effects on resource allocation of EVSL, food and automotive sectors turned out to have the greatest improvement. Yet the resource allocation improvement is relatively meager in the sectors such as forest products, gems and jewellery, fertilizers, natural and synthetic rubber. Scale and pro-competitive effects are substantial in chemicals, food, automotive, natural and synthetic rubber, whose importance is decreasing in that order.
We also examined the merits of EVSL by comparing the changes in trade restrictiveness indexes during the period between the time (dating back to 4-5 years ago) when the APEC process started and the hypothetical time of implementing the proposals for EVSL. According to our estimation, EVSL is likely to enhance welfare far more substantially than did the liberalization efforts for the past 4-5 years. It will be particularly so in food, fish and fish products, and automotive. -
Korean Economic Restructuring: Evaluation and Prospects
■ Following the outbreak of the foreign currency crisis in November 1997, the resolution of domestic debt has emerged as the primary task for restoring economic stability in Korea. A year of economic turmoil and efforts at reform..
Mikyung Yun Date 1998.11.30
Economic reformDownloadContentSummary■ Following the outbreak of the foreign currency crisis in November 1997, the resolution of domestic debt has emerged as the primary task for restoring economic stability in Korea. A year of economic turmoil and efforts at reform have now passed and it seems to be a good time for a reflection; for this purpose, KIEP held an international seminar, focusing on the two most important and intertwined aspects of economic reform: financial sector reform and corporate restructuring.
■ The financial sector reform has been reviewed by Dr. Stijn Claessens of the World Bank, and corporate restructuring by Dr. Ira Lieberman, also from the World Bank. The papers provide updated information on the reform process, and identify the size of the debt and the size of funds to resolve it as the biggest and immediate problem to be taken care of.
■ Both argue that this should take priority to any long term measures, and that greater government role is paramount in setting the speed and providing a central guidepost through, for example, greater use of fiscal policy and setting up of funds or a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to purchase debt to turn it into equity. -
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Strengthening Compliance with APEC Agreement: A Study on Member States' Compliance with APEC Agreement
Strengthening Compliance with APEC Agreement: A Study on Member States' Compliance with APEC Agreement Bark, Taeho·Woo-Sik Moon·Jin-Hyun Paik This study attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the APEC mechanism by analyzing ..
Taeho Bark et al. Date 1998.11.01
Economic cooperation, Free tradeDownloadContentSummaryStrengthening Compliance with APEC Agreement: A Study on Member States' Compliance with APEC Agreement Bark, Taeho·Woo-Sik Moon·Jin-Hyun Paik This study attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the APEC mechanism by analyzing how and the extent to which member countries implement and comply with agreements adopted by the APEC. Since its launching in 1989, APEC has produced a variety of agreements and measures, though not legally binding, to promote economic cooperation and liberalize trade and investment among member countries. In particular, member countries in the 1994 Bogor meeting agreed to liberalize trade and investment by year 2010 in case of advanced economies and by year 2020 in case of developing countries. They have subsequently submitted their individual action plans (IAPs) to accomplish these goals.
However, the agreements are effective when, and only when, they are domestically implemented by member countries. Without better knowledge about the implementation of agreements and concomitant obligations, it is impossible to assess the effectiveness of the APEC in promoting the liberalization of trade and investment and economic cooperation. Thus this study examines how APEC member countries, in particular Japan, Korea, China and the United States have thus far implemented their IAPs and analyzes the factors that have affected their implementation. These factors include the character of activities, the character of agreement, country characteristics, international environment, and so on. The study has found, among others, that APEC has an inherent limitation as it does not impose a legally binding obligation on member countries and lacks a mechanism to secure the implementation of obligations. It is suggested, therefore, that for trade and investment liberalization, member countries should give a priority to the negotiations at the WTO whereas they should concentrate more on trade and facilitation at the APEC. -
Making APEC's Open Regionalism to Consistent With the WTO
Making APEC's Open Regionalism to Consistent with the WTO Sung-Hoon Park Ever since Open Regionalism was adopted by APEC as its basic approach, it has been discussed extensively in the circle of academics and policy makers. Recent..
Date 1998.11.01
Economic opening, Economic cooperationDownloadContentSummaryMaking APEC's Open Regionalism to Consistent with the WTO Sung-Hoon Park Ever since Open Regionalism was adopted by APEC as its basic approach, it has been discussed extensively in the circle of academics and policy makers. Recently, the European Union officially adopted Open Regionalism as one of priority principles in its external economic policy as well. Furthermore, international organizations, such as the WTO and the OECD, have also been reviewing whether and how the concept can be utilized in overcoming the regionalistic tendency in the world economy. Despite this increased interest in Open Regionalism in the international community, APEC member countries so far failed to agree upon a single definition of the concept, thereby leading to a confusion with regard to concrete measures for its implementation. This implies that the envisaged goal of APEC to overcome ever-increasing regionalism in the 1980s and thereby strengthen the multilateral trading system has to wait long time to be achieved. Fundamental problems arose in the course of APEC's attempts to implement Open Regionalism: On the one hand, unilateral liberalization, which is suggested by the EPG as an option, could not effectively avoid the free-rider problem. On the other hand, the application of conditional MFN would have inevitably violated the 'non-discrimination' principle of the GATT/WTO. In this paper, the following two factors are identified as main inherent limitations of APEC, especially in implementing Open Regionalism. First, APEC lacks a concrete long-term vision. The long-term goal of APEC to achieve "free trade in the region" appears too vague, and there are no specifications regarding the relationship between this goal and the Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Second, APEC contains several sub-regionalism, such as AFTA, CER and NAFTA, and they differ substantially in the level and coverage of economic integration. Consequently, APEC has to solve both internal and external problems at the same time: Internally, APEC has to design measures to harmonize several sub-regionalism, while it wants to apply Open Regionalism towards non-APEC members. This paper suggests that developing APEC into an FTA is an option that member countries can resort to, in case APEC further sticks to the concept of Open Regionalism as its basic approach. Once adopted by APEC, this option will contribute to the resolution of the two problems mentioned above: free-rider problem and the violation of non-discrimination. It will also help to minimize the two main inherent limitations of APEC: a lack of a concrete long-term goal and the existence of several sub-regionalism within it. This paper concludes that a three-step approach could be adopted in developing APEC into an FTA. The suggested steps are: (1) establishment of an FTA for the Northeast Asian region and/or an FTA for the Asian APEC members; (2) consistent strengthening of cooperation and harmonization among several sub-regional integration bodies; (3) development of APEC into an FTA as a final step. -
The Background of Russia's Joining the APEC and Russian Policy toward the APEC
The Background of Russia's Joining the APEC and Russian Policy toward the APEC Jae-You Lee, Jae-Young Lee As Russia has joined the APEC this year, it would have an important effect not only on the APEC itself but also on Korea. T..
Jae-You Lee et al. Date 1998.11.01
Economic cooperationDownloadContentSummaryThe Background of Russia's Joining the APEC and Russian Policy toward the APEC Jae-You Lee, Jae-Young Lee As Russia has joined the APEC this year, it would have an important effect not only on the APEC itself but also on Korea. The purpose of this research is to make a contribution for Korean government to establish the desirable policy toward both Russia and the APEC in the future, by examining the background of Russia's joining the APEC and its policy toward APEC.
For this purpose, we will examine the background of Russia's joining the APEC in terms of change of Russian foreign economic policies in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, first, we will examine what kinds of organizations the former Soviet Union/Russia had operated in order to join the APEC before it became a member of the APEC. The situation of Russia's economic cooperation with other member nations of the APEC will also be examined, focussing on the size of international trade and investments cooperation of Russia in the APEC forum. And then, we will examine the direction of Russian policy toward the APEC in various aspects since its entry to the APEC. Finally, the significance of Russia's admission to the APEC will be contemplated and the prospects of its effect on the APEC will be presented in Chapter 4.
The major motivations of Russia's joining the to APEC are as follows: First, in order to increase Russia's role and influences for overall political, economic processes in the Asia-Pacific area. Second, in order to increase Russia's international cooperation with the nations of the Asia-Pacific area in terms of mutually beneficial trade, investments and cooperation in scientific technology. Third, in order to create a favorable precondition for Russia to solve the socio-economic problems in Siberia and the Far-Eastern area.
Evaluating the APEC highly since activities of its member nations are fairly open and voluntary and it covers broad range of activities such as Liberalization of trade and investments, econo-technological cooperation, Russia looks upon the APEC as a very efficient mechanism for actual and multilateral cooperation in this area. Russia regards energy, transportation, communications, telecommunications, investments cooperation, human resources and economic, technological cooperation as the major promising fields for multilateral cooperation through the APEC.
Russia's entry to the APEC can help to strengthen the military, political security in the Asia-Pacific area and move the center of activities of the APEC to Asia, especially North East Asia. Furthermore, it can offer a more favorable situation to the developing nations in the APEC that are more interested in technological cooperation, controlling the advanced nations such as the U. S. A. that intend to put priority on trade liberalization among the major objectives of the APEC.
However, despite Russia's firm declaration that it would be faithful to the basic principles of the APEC, it seems that Russia's joining the APEC has been significant only in a political aspect, not in an economic aspect, so far. So, Russia's entry to the APEC cannot have fundamental influences on the APEC economically for a while.
In the future, Korea should make more aggressive efforts to produce favorable conditions for economic cooperation with Russia at multilateral levels through the APEC as well as to increase mutual cooperation with Russia at a bilateral level. Korea should not neglect the cooperation in natural resources and energy to which Russia gives priority, and should give more attention to get technology transfer from Russia. -
Barriers to the Flow of Researchers APEC
Barriers to the Flow of Researchers Across APEC Sung Chul Chung, Myung Jin Lee The objectives of this study are to understand the pattern of researcher flows among APEC economies, to identify the barriers to the mobility of resea..
Sung-Chul Chung et al. Date 1998.10.31
Technical cooperationDownloadContentSummaryBarriers to the Flow of Researchers Across APEC Sung Chul Chung, Myung Jin Lee The objectives of this study are to understand the pattern of researcher flows among APEC economies, to identify the barriers to the mobility of researchers, and to derive policy suggestions for the promotion of researcher exchanges across the region. For these purposes, two regional surveys have been undertaken under the joint sponsorship of Japan, Indonesia, and Korea. This study is based on the results of the surveys.
First, individual APEC economies were surveyed in order to obtain data on the inflows and outflows of scientists and engineers. The result shows that the largest recipient of researchers in the region is the United States, and the largest supplier China. It was also found that researchers flow from less developed to developed countries which are stronger in science and technology as well as in industries and offer high-quality advanced education.
Second, individual researchers of the region were also serveyed in order to identify barriers to the flow of scientists and engineers. The survey result tells us that researchers are most attracted by such factors as (1) degree or training programs, (2) quality of life, (3) recognition of the qualifications or experiences obtained in the countries other than the host country, (4) unique scientific and technological resources, (5) excellence of the institutions, (6) research environments, and (7) culture and language. The major barriers to researcher exchange identified by the survey are: (1) cost of living, (2) visa and entry regulations, (3) immigration regulations, (4) housing, and (5) medical services, among others.
Major recommendations are: (1) create an APEC Network of the Centers of Excellence as a medium for scientific interactions based on complementarity and mutuality; (2) develop a regional system of accreditation (academic and/or technical); (3) jointly develop regional visa arrangements to enhance the mobility of qualified scientists and engineers across the region; and (4) develop and implement individual action programs to stimulate and support the development of networks among researchers in the region. -
A Study on the Actual Operation Condition of Hedge Funds and The Cases of Speculative Attacks on Currendies
A Study on the Actual Operation Condition of Hedge Funds and The Cases of Speculative Attacks on Currencies Young-Woo Lee As speculative attacks on currencies by hot money have played an initial role in triggering the financial ..
Young-Woo Lee Date 1998.10.31
Exchange rateDownloadContentSummaryA Study on the Actual Operation Condition of Hedge Funds and The Cases of Speculative Attacks on Currencies Young-Woo Lee As speculative attacks on currencies by hot money have played an initial role in triggering the financial crises, calls for increased monitoring and restrictions on hedge funds targeting such activity have recently gained momentum.
Hedge funds are generally high-yield, high-risk private investment partnerships investing primarily in publicly traded securities, financial derivatives or commodities. The total number of ongoing global hedge funds in operation is estimated to be around 5,000, with approximately $300 billion in assets under management control. These global hedge funds can be divided into US hedge funds and offshore hedge funds. According to estimates, there are about 1,500 Offshore Hedge funds worldwide in 1998, operating assets of over $ 150 billion.
Those offshore hedge funds specializing in foreign currency speculation normally attack overvalued currencies in which its exchange rates are pegged to a major currency that do not properly reflect its underlying fundamental economic conditions. Regardless of their success, currency speculation by hedge funds distorts the international monetary order and the stability of financial markets, because if they do succeed, target countries would suffer heavy losses, where as otherwise, the financial structure of banks and financial institutions related to the hedge funds would deteriorate due to the highly leveraged nature of hedge funds.
As Korea is rapidly liberalizing its foreign currency and capital markets in the aftermath of the outbreak of the financial crisis, any exchange or monetary measures taken inconsistent with macroeconomic fundamentals could open Korea to advance aggressively by speculative hedge funds. Thus, it is essential that the Korean be forever vigilant in operating macro-economic and capital control policies consistent with the fundamentality so as not to provide currency speculators with opportunities, and at the same time, government must closely monitor the flows of hot money in and out of Korea. Furthermore, efficient and prudential regulation of financial sector must be bolstered as should transparency. In this way, hedge funds can not only be monitored more closely, but opportunities for such funds will likely diminish.
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