During the first session of the conference, both institutions presented forecasts  "World and Asian Economic Outlook 2024". In the second session, the focus shifted to "China's Changing Economy and Its Impact," with presentations from various institutions followed by expert discussions.

In the opening session, KIEP President Siwook Lee acknowledged Korea's global competitiveness in certain manufacturing sectors. However, he pointed out the uncertainty in the future economic landscape due to external factors disrupting the stability of the global economy. President Lee emphasized the importance of policy coordination and cooperation with the international community, and stressed the need to formulate long-term strategies from  economic security perspective.

During the first session, moderated by Professor Seung Heon Lee of Soongsil University, Head Sang-Ha Yoon of the International Macroeconomics & Finance Dept. at KIEP predicted that the global economy will grow at a rate of 2.8% in 2024, down from the 3.0% in 2023. Yoon analyzed that the debt burden, compounded by high interest rates, would constrain global economic growth. He explained that the growth rate is under pressure due to the significant early utilization of debt issuance capacity. Against the backdrop of low economic growth, Yoon identified three main risk factors: China's entry into a low-growth path in the medium to long term, a slowdown in growth due to the dual effects of high debt and high interest rates, and intensifying geopolitical conflicts and additional supply shocks.

Economist Tristan Hennig of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department forecast economic growth rates for the Asia region of 4.6% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. Specifically for Korea, he predicted a growth rate of 1.4% in 2023 and 2.2% in 2024. Hennig mentioned that the high economic growth rate in the United States does not significantly benefit the Asian region. He noted that the expected recovery in import growth from key countries in the region is likely to be below expectations. Finally, he stated that the outlook for the Asian region depends on the stabilization of China's economic activity and the recovery of exports from key countries.

Following the conclusion of the presentations and discussions on the global economic outlook, the second session focused on "China’s Changing Economy and Its Impact."

Moderated by Professor Doo Yong Yang of Kyung Hee University, Economist Chris Redl of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department continued the discussion on "The Growth Trend of the Chinese Economy and Its Impact on Neighboring Countries. Mr. Redl highlighted how China's increasing influence in production, trade, and investment in Asia has negatively impacted neighboring Asian countries as China's decades-long high growth trend gradually declines, leading to structural changes. He identified challenges such as "friendsharing" and "reshoring" as potential obstacles to China's economy, with significant implications for other Asian nations.

Chief Economist Sungbae An of KIEP presented on "China Shock and its Spillover Effects on Korean Economy". He emphasized the significant impact of China on Korea's growth, but warned that Korea may experience future growth slowdowns as China is exposed to the middle-income trap and undergoes a shift in its export-investment-led growth policy, coupled with constraints due to U.S.-China tensions. He emphasized the importance of preparing for the possibility of China's economic slowdown as an opportunity for structural reforms in the domestic and international aspects of the Korean economy.

- Title: 2024 World Economic Outlook: Slowed Growth under the Used-Up Future-Borrowed Capacity

- Date & Time: November 29th, 2023 (Wed), 14:00-17:00

- Venue: Hotel President in Seoul

- Hosts: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), International Monetary Fund (IMF)

- Contact: Secretariat of KIEP-IMF Joint Conference (ljy08@kiep.go.kr)