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The Impact of Anti-dumping Measures on Imports and Exports: Evidence from Korea trade policy, anti-dumping system

Author Joo Yeon Sun, Seung Rae Lee, Hyeri Park, and Junhyun Eom Series 14-09 Language Korean Date 2014.12.30

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Until the mid to late 2000s, the process of trade liberalization has been driven forward through ongoing efforts of world economies at the WTO level. At the same time, regional processes such as Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have made greater liberalization possible, lowering tariff barriers significantly. With the world currently in recession, the global financial crisis has intensified competition. These difficulties therefore require practical efforts of countries to maintain the present pace of trade liberalization. In this regard, there is much debate as to the role of trade remedies in the process of recovery from the global financial crisis. Some countries tend to utilize trade remedies to protect the country’s declining domestic industries or vulnerable domestic industries. Korea launches anti-dumping investigations against imports originating from foreign countries, but at the same time Korean exporters have also been subject to the largest number of anti-dumping investigations in the United States, China and India. Accordingly, it is necessary to examine the economic effects of trade remedies from both the perspective of being subject to import regulations and the perspective of imposing import regulations. The frequent use of trade remedies has come under criticism due to the fact that the positive effects of trade liberalization could be negated. This study aims to draw implications and propose countermeasures for the efficient operation of the Korean trade remedies system, by analyzing the impact of trade remedies on imports and exports, and by conducting comprehensive analysis of operational issues regarding trade remedies. The trade remedy system is often established to correct unfair trade practices such as dumping and subsidies, or to provide temporary remedies to importing countries for emergencies or for exceptional circumstances such as safeguards. In a broader sense, the trade remedy system often includes unfair trade practice investigation. This study limits the scope of the trade remedy system to anti-dumping investigations, as the cases of countervailing duties or a definitive safeguard measure imposed by Korea on imports (subject merchandise) are extremely rare. While most of the previous studies that analyzed the effect of anti-dumping measures were focused on cases involving the United States, this study contributes to the literature on anti-dumping investigation by collecting data on anti-dumping investigation in China and India, in addition to the United States. Comparisons of the anti-dumping investigations in Korea and the United States, China, India during 1995-2014 led to the following results: the United States had less number of cases terminated by impositions of measures as a percentage of all the cases initiated, while China and India were subject to a relatively long period of anti-dumping investigation. One thing the anti-dumping investigations in the United States, China, and India have in common is that the exporters of subject merchandise and the exporting country subject to investigation are quite diverse. Related practices in Korea are developing fast, and it is comparable to those of the United States practice, showing a higher-level anti-dumping system than China and India. The United States has the most specific provisions relating to the non-market economy (NME) and the use of cumulative assessment of injury; the United States makes active use of these provisions. As for China, it strictly enforces price undertaking agreements. However, there is room for improvement regarding administrative review systems in China along with India. This study empirically investigates the existence of a chilling effect on imports and exports, and the impact of anti-dumping measures on imports and exports, identifying separate effects for each. The impact of anti-dumping measures on imports and exports were felt differently depending on the country's institutional characteristics, practices, and the industry subject to investigation. The results show that the Korean anti-dumping measures caused a reduction in the import volume at the HS-6 digit category of subject merchandises, a phenomenon found to be common across industries. Mere initiation of an anti-dumping investigation against Korea by the United States caused a substantial decrease in the total export volume of HS-6 digit products. The duration of the chilling effect depended on industry characteristics. China's anti-dumping investigation against Korea was focused on the chemical industry. The chilling effect on exports occurred, but only appeared for a short period. Similarly, India’s anti-dumping investigation against Korea caused a chilling effect on exports, which again disappeared in a short period of time. A cross-country comparison of the anti-dumping investigation leads to a following conclusion: a confirmation of the existence of the chilling effect, induced simply by initiating anti-dumping investigation. The empirical results of this study suggests that the impacts of anti-dumping measures on imports and exports - whether an anti-dumping duty levied on the subject merchandise would cause a decrease in the import volume, and how long the effects would last - depend on numerous country- and industry- specific features. Therefore, it is necessary to propose implications against the United States, China, and India for the efficient operation of Korea’s anti-dumping system, by considering comprehensive analysis of operational issues. The criteria for selecting the vulnerable domestic industries is based upon the anti-dumping investigation frequency, the number of cases terminated by impositions of measures as a percentage of all the cases initiated, the shares of product volume imported (exported), and the growth rate of imports (exports) of products. The proposed country- and industry- specific implications are expected to contribute to developing Korea’s strategy against the use of anti-dumping measures by the United States, China, and India.

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