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Exchange Rate System in India: Recent Reforms, Central Bank Policies and Fundamental Determinants of the Rupee-Dollar Rates
monetary policy, exchange rate
Author Vivekanand Jayakumar, Tae Hwon Yoo, and Yoon Jung Choi Series 05-06 Language English Date 2005.12.30
We provide an in-depth analysis of the exchange rate reform program undertaken by India in recent years. The actions of India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during this key reform period are evaluated in this study as well. In addition, this paper, using a sector price differential model, analyzes the fundamental determinants of the Indian rupee-U.S. dollar exchange rates. Lately, Indian policymakers and Reserve Bank officials appear to have taken steps designed to increase the overall credibility of the exchange rate regime. Our analysis suggests that the reform policies have generally been quite effective. We also feel that the RBI should adopt further liberalization program, being mindful, however, of the potential for severe exchange rate volatility and monetary instability in the face of increasing capital mobility and international integration.
Executive Summary
I. Introduction
II. Recent Changes in India's Exchange Rate System and RBI Policies
1. The 1991 Balance of Payment Crisis
2. Changes in the Rupee Exchange Rate Regime
3. Central Bank Actions in the Forex Market
III. Capital Flows, Impossible Trinity, and Foreign Exchange Reserve
Management
1. Capital Account Liberalization in India
2. The Impossible Trinity
3. Foreign Exchange Reserve Management
IV. Fundamental Determinants of India's Real Exchange Rates
1. Introduction
2. Exchange Rate Movements in India
3. Model and Methodology
4. Long Run Movements of Real Exchange Rates
5. Innovation Accounting
6. Implication of the Empirical Test
V. Future Directions for the Rupee and the Reserve Bank of India
1. A Fear of Floating
2. Inflation Targeting
VI. Conclusion
References
I. Introduction
II. Recent Changes in India's Exchange Rate System and RBI Policies
1. The 1991 Balance of Payment Crisis
2. Changes in the Rupee Exchange Rate Regime
3. Central Bank Actions in the Forex Market
III. Capital Flows, Impossible Trinity, and Foreign Exchange Reserve
Management
1. Capital Account Liberalization in India
2. The Impossible Trinity
3. Foreign Exchange Reserve Management
IV. Fundamental Determinants of India's Real Exchange Rates
1. Introduction
2. Exchange Rate Movements in India
3. Model and Methodology
4. Long Run Movements of Real Exchange Rates
5. Innovation Accounting
6. Implication of the Empirical Test
V. Future Directions for the Rupee and the Reserve Bank of India
1. A Fear of Floating
2. Inflation Targeting
VI. Conclusion
References
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