The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) held its regular press conference titled "2024 World Economic Outlook (Update)" on May 21st, 2024, at 10:00 AM in the Briefing Room on the 4th floor of the Government Complex Sejong. Attended by reporters from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF), the conference was live-streamed through the government portal e-Briefing, presenting the institute’s revised projections for global economic growth this year and to discuss global issues.

During his opening remarks, President Siwook Lee of KIEP communicated his views on key issues leading to recent changes in the global economic environment, such as U.S. monetary policy, the U.S.-China dispute over China's oversupply, and the Iran-Israel conflict. Taking these factors into consideration, President Lee updated the projected global economic growth rate in 2024 to 3%, which is 0.2p% higher than the previous forecast in November 2023, also predicting that the global economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025.

President Lee forecast that the U.S. will continue to drive global economic growth, and that India will record high growth as China improves on original forecasts as well. Presenting “ultra-high uncertainty in policy” and “differentiated growth” as main keywords in the current world economy, he cited three factors as major downside risks to global economic growth: the spread of geopolitical risks and recurrence of supply shocks, differentiation of countries’ monetary policies amid higher-for-longer interest rates, and deepening social and political polarization, as well as nationalism, following a historic global election year.

Executive Director Young Sik Jeong of the International Macroeconomics and Finance Department at KIEP presented an overview of the growth rate forecasts for major countries. First of all, the United States economy was predicted to grow by 2.4%, the European economy by 0.7%, and Japan by 0.9%. The U.S. is expected to play a primary role in global growth, showing strong recovery in consumer spending, revival of private investment, and government spending. In contrast, economic recovery in Eurozone and Japan was likely to be weak due to the prolonged high-interest rates and various geopolitical risks.

In the case of emerging economies, Executive Director Jeong predicted a contrasting trend between India's strong growth and modest recovery in other countries including China, placing forecasts for economic growth rates at 6.8% for India, 4.8% for China, 4.5% for ASEAN, 3.2% for Russia, and 1.8% for Brazil. Regarding the Chinese economy, he analyzed that although the slowdown in growth will be contained as the Chinese government continues economic stabilization policies, the decline in foreign direct investment in China and continued decrease in prices will act as downside risks.

The press conference was attended by KIEP experts, including Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Sungbae An, Executive Director Jong Duk Kim of the International Trade, Investment and Economic Security Department, Executive Director Sungil Kwak of the Emerging Economy Studies Center, Head Jihyun Jung of the China Team, Head Gu Sang Kang of the North America and Europe Team, Head Jaichul Heo of the Japan and East Asia Team, Head Sang-Ha Yoon of the International Macroeconomics Team, Dr. Munsu Kang of the Africa, Middle East, and Latin America Team, along with MOEF press correspondents. The participants held a Q&A session on current issues in the world economy, such as U.S. tariff policy following the presidential election, e-commerce in China, global inflation, conflicts in the Middle East, and trends in international oil prices.

- Title: Press Conference on the 2024 World Economic Outlook (Update)

- Date & Time: Tuesday, May 21, 2024, 10:00-11:15

- Venue: Briefing Room (4F), Ministry of Economy and Finance, Government Complex Sejong / Online E-Briefing System

- Host: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)