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Policy Analyses

RESEARCH

  • Information and Capital Flows Revisited: the Internet as a Determinant of Transa..
    Information and Capital Flows Revisited: the Internet as a Determinant of Transactions in Financial Assets

     This paper investigates the determinants of international transac-tions in financial assets empirically. We extend the gravity model in Portes et al. (2000) by introducing an internet variable. Using cross-country panel data..

    Changkyu Choi et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Financial Policy, Financial System
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     I. Introduction 


    II. Model and Data 


    III. Empirical Results 


    IV. Conclusion 


    References 


    Appendix 


     


     


     


     

    Summary

     This paper investigates the determinants of international transac-tions in financial assets empirically. We extend the gravity model in Portes et al. (2000) by introducing an internet variable. Using cross-country panel data on the portfolio flows between the US and other countries from 1990 to 2008, we found that the Internet turns out to mitigate the information asymmetries and thus increases cross-border portfolio flows between countries.

  • Considering Happiness for Economic Development: Determinants of  Happiness in In..
    Considering Happiness for Economic Development: Determinants of Happiness in Indonesia

    Happiness is often ignored in development economics even though it is generally considered the ultimate goal in life. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey, this paper elucidates factors related to happiness in Indonesia in an or..

    Kitae Sohn Date 2010.12.30

    Economic Development, Economic Development
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    Content

    I. Introduction 


    II. Literature Review 


    III. Data  


    IV. Results 
    1. Indonesia’s Position in the World 
    2. Demographic Variables 
    3. Employment and Earnings 
    4. Physical and Mental Health 
    5. Trust 
    6. Relative Income Standing 
    7. Political Environment 
    8. Robustness and Marginal Effects 


    V. Conclusions 


    References 


    Appendix 

    Summary

    Happiness is often ignored in development economics even though it is generally considered the ultimate goal in life. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey, this paper elucidates factors related to happiness in Indonesia in an ordered probit analysis. Some factors yield results consistent with those in the literature, but other factors such as unemployment and female gender turn out to be not robust. Exogenous measures are introduced for past income mobility, social trust, and political environment. Also, measures with a more immediate impact on happiness are exploited for social trust and political environment. The sign of the coefficient on past income mobility is reversed once the variable is purged of endogeneity. Also, social trust and political environment are found to have little relationship with happiness. The last finding stands in stark contrast to the findings in the literature that uses measures only remotely related to happiness.


     

  • Impact of Rules of Origin on FTA Utilization in Korean FTAs
    Impact of Rules of Origin on FTA Utilization in Korean FTAs

    Despite the intense interest concerning Rules of Origin (ROO) in every corner, research regarding ROO has been relatively limited. It is primarily due to the difficulties of performing systematic research on ROO. The importance of..

    HanSung Kim et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Trade Policy, Monetary Policy
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    Content


    I. Introduction 


    II. Analysis of Utilization Rate for Korea’s FTAs 
    1. Utilization Rate for Korean Imports from FTA Partner Countries 
    2. Utilization Rate for Korean Exports to FTA Partners 


    III. Restrictiveness Analysis on Rules of Origin: Korean FTAs 


    IV. Empirical Analysis: Economic Impact of ROO on Korea-ASEAN FTA   Utilization Rates 
    1. Model Specification 
    2. Data Description 
    3. Preliminary Empirical Result 


    V. Conclusion 


    References 


    Appendix 

    Summary

    Despite the intense interest concerning Rules of Origin (ROO) in every corner, research regarding ROO has been relatively limited. It is primarily due to the difficulties of performing systematic research on ROO. The importance of the role of ROO in FTA, however, cannot be overemphasized since the economic effect of concluding an FTA is determined by ROO, in particular with respect to the market access. This study aims to investigate the economic effect of ROO of Korean FTAs on its FTA utilization. Using restrictive index, margin of preferences and other relevant variables, we test the relation between FTA utilization and related variables. The results show that more restrictive ROO has a negative impact on the utilization rates, when we drop the products with zero utilization rates and control for industry-specific characters. It also shows that higher MOP promotes the use of the Korea-ASEAN FTA. On the other hand, we fail to show that the average value of imports per-application has a positive impact on the use of FTA.


     

  • Learning in Negotiations?: An Experimental Study
    Learning in Negotiations?: An Experimental Study

    The purpose of this paper identifies learning in games in the experimental economic settings, and applies their results on real multilateral trade negotiations. This paper argues that structure of games including a veto player(Vet..

    Hankyoung Sung Date 2010.12.30

    Multilateral Negotiations, Trade Policy
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    Content

    I. Introduction 


    II. Theory 


    III. Experimental Designs 


    IV. Experimental Results 


    V. Policy Implications 
    1. Is there any learning as time passes? 
    2. Does memory matter? 


    VI. Concluding Remarks 


    References 


    Appendix 

    Summary

    The purpose of this paper identifies learning in games in the experimental economic settings, and applies their results on real multilateral trade negotiations. This paper argues that structure of games including a veto player(Veto games) are similar to real multilateral trade negotiations in that the players do not possess identical power. This paper’s main contribution involves showing that learning on power is dominant over learning on theory in Veto games. More importantly, this paper shows that players are concerned about how much they have gained in previous games in Veto games, although their memories generally do not last beyond the next game, and thus they tend to be selfish as they have less shares. Based on these results, it sees the possibility to be more generous in distribution of benefits; allowing players without veto power to retain special rights so that they would not be totally powerless, necessity of having ‘respite’ in the process of negotiations, and policy options for choosing partners for winning coalitions.

  • Determinants of Exports: Productivity or Fixed Export Costs
    Determinants of Exports: Productivity or Fixed Export Costs

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical framework to take several key determinants of exports into consideration and to propose an empirical model to identify which factors affect firms’ export performance, whether ..

    Young gui Kim et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Trade Policy, Free Trade
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    Content

    I. Introduction 


    II. Theoretical Model 
    1. Basic Elements 
    2. A Benchmark Case: Autarky 
    3. Open Economy 
    4. Policy Implications 


    III. Empirical Model 
    1. Data 
    2. Variables 
    3. Estimation Model 


    IV. Conclusion 


    References 


     

    Summary

    The purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical framework to take several key determinants of exports into consideration and to propose an empirical model to identify which factors affect firms’ export performance, whether to start exporting (export extensity) and how much they will export (export intensity). Extending the Melitz (2003) model, in our theoretical part, we consider firm heterogeneity in two dimensions; fixed cost as well as productivity. As a result, when a firm with low productivity engages in exporting, there can also be a higher productive firm facing relatively high fixed cost. This allows us to resolve the difficulty in interpreting controversial empirical results, for example, whether productivity or firm size is a key determinant of export. Furthermore, in our empirical part, by using Korean firm-level data, we conclude that productivity plays an important role when a firm decides whether to start exporting, while fixed export costs variables are important determinants of fractions of outputs to be exported.
     

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  • 한국형 개발경험 전수사업 추진을 위한 기초연구: 기존 사례의 분석 및 우즈베키스탄에..
    A Framework for Sharing Korea’s Socio-economic Development Experience with ODA Recipient Counties and its Application to Uzbekistan

    This study provides a model for the Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) considering three major problems of the current structure and practice of the KSP. The most critical problem of the current KSP is that most programs are..

    In Soo Kang et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Economic Development, Economic Cooperation
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    This study provides a model for the Korea’s Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) considering three major problems of the current structure and practice of the KSP. The most critical problem of the current KSP is that most programs are formulated and conducted from the suppliers perspectives rather than those of recipient. At the same time, those programs are not based on adequate study on the delivery methods of aid. Finally, individual programs are not harmonized well enough to achieve aid effectiveness despite that Korea’s experience includes extensive areas of economic and social development. A desirable KSP has to reflect these problems in order to enhance aid-effectiveness and keep KSP’s uniqueness as a development assistance program.
    In developing a desirable KSP model, it is important to understand that KSP is only a part in Korea’s overall ODA policy structure and it has to follow international norms regarding development assistance. As a way to develop a desirable KSP, this study proposes four principles KSP: ‘Willingness Encouragement,’ Half Step Ahead Along Her Way, Selective Focus, Multi-stage Efforts. The principle of ‘Willingness Encouragement’ requires KSP to develop a  program so as to encourage and assist recipients’ willingness for socio-economic development. The principle of ‘Half-step Ahead Along Her Way’ is that a KSP program has to fully incorporate recipients’ capacity for implementing any proposed program. The principle of ‘Selective Focus’ has to be applied all the stages of KSP including identification of recipients, area, assistance methods, etc. Finally, the principle of ‘Multi-stage efforts’ means that a KSP has to be developed from a long-term perspective with successive multi-year measures which are necessary to enhance institutional and human capacity for development.
    This study provides a model case of designing a KSP program for Uzbekistan incorporating the above mentioned principles. For the purpose of identifying the candidate areas of development assistance, this study first conducts both quantitative and qualitative assessment of Uzbekistan’s development capacity. The candidate areas include the improvement of governance, strengthening Uzbekistan’s capacity for industrialization and poverty reduction. According to the four principles, this study proposes ‘to help alleviate rural poverty by assisting the production and export capacity of agricultural sector of Uzbekistan’ as an area of cooperation. This study also shows how the ‘Product Cycle Management’ has to be applied to a specific KSP program in various stages.

  • 중앙아시아에서 한국의 국가이미지
    The Image of Korea in Central Asia

    This work outlines the results of a national image survey conducted to measure the level of awareness of the people of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan concerning Korean companies and corporate brands, along with the types of exchange an..

    Sung Hak Yoon et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Economic Development, Economic Cooperation
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    This work outlines the results of a national image survey conducted to measure the level of awareness of the people of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan concerning Korean companies and corporate brands, along with the types of exchange and cooperation they want to see between their respective countries and Korea. In order to ensure objectivity, the survey was commissioned to BISAM (Business Information, Social and Marketing Research Center), a professional survey organization in Kazakhstan; and the ISR (Institute for Social Researches under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan), an Uzbek government institute responsible for conducting an array of social research. 1000 adult subjects were selected from major cities of each country to form a survey pool.
    A comparison of the survey results reveals sharp differences between the two countries concerning their experiences concerning Korea. 42.3% of persons surveyed in Uzbekistan had met or conversed with a Korean, whereas the figure was a mere 7.3% for Kazakhstan, with just 1.9% of Kazakhs surveyed having visited Korean homes. As for Korean products, the most frequently used in Uzbekistan were automobiles, while electrical appliances were the majority in Kazakhstan. Samsung was the most recognized of Korean corporations in Kazakhstan (98.9%), with Daewoo achieving a similar rate of recognition (92%) in Uzbekistan. But while Korean corporations were deemed as highly reliable by the majority of the respondents in both countries, the same could not be said for the Korean government, whose reliability in the two countries were markedly low in comparison.
    The percentage of persons who have seen Korean TV dramas were consistently higher in Uzbekistan. In terms of age groups, the percentage was the highest among persons in their thirties in both countries, yet the percentage was still higher in Uzbekistan. Percentage of persons recognizing Korean leaders or celebrities were generally low in both countries, but was especially low in Kazakhstan, where no Korean person of note was recognized with the exception of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (20.7%). ‘Kareiski (Korean) Salad’ was the favorite Korean food for those who have tasted Korean food, followed by kimchi. As for prospects for war in Korea, a higher percentage of Kazakhs(33.6%) viewed war in Korea as possible compared to Uzbek respondents(15.3%).
    This survey has implications not only towards policies for Central Asian nations but other countries as well. It should be noted that in Central Asia, Korean companies are viewed in a much more positive light than Korea the country. This means that the people of Central Asia first become aware of Korea through its products and companies, with the resulting favorable image being transferred to the originating country. Therefore, the Korean government should provide support for companies seeking to invest in Central Asia and elsewhere in the world, with a view to raising Korea’s recognition value, aside from the usual purpose of expanding trade volume and improving trade balance. Second, this survey shows clearly the importance of strengthening human exchange between countries, a fact amply demonstrated by a higher level of awareness concerning Korea in Samarkand and Andijan (Uzbekistan), where more people are likely to have visited Korea; much higher than in Atyrau and Karagandy (Kazakhstan), where those who have visited Korea were not many. An adjustment of the current visa system and strengthening mutual connection through promotion of mutual employment or study is necessary for expanding exchange between Korea and Central Asia. In particular, as most Kazakhs visiting Korea do so for the purpose of sightseeing, the current system of requiring formal invitations for issuance of tourist visas need to be reformed. Third, Korea’s ODA to Central Asia needs to be tailored for specific needs, instead of the smorgasbord (thus lacking focus) of ODA being offered currently. In areas where Korea is well-recognized, as shown in the latest survey, simple community work or SOC infrastructure construction should be displaced by income-earning ODA such as KSP projects. However, traditional ODA should be expanded and more personnel dispatched to regions such as Nukus (Uzbekistan) or Atyrau (Kazakhstan) or other locations where people are not familiar with Korea. Lastly, the survey demonstrated that Uzbeks and Kazakhs are very earnest about economic cooperation with Korea, meaning Korean enterprises and the government can feel more confident about making long-term investments in the region. Central Asia’s relatively low international credit rating and high risks in investment can be more than compensated by their higher level of trust toward Korea and its positive image in the region. As Korea’s positive image in Central Asia transcends class lines, from top to bottom, Korean investment will be received favorably by everyone in the country concerned and thus is likely to be met with success.
    In conclusion, this report will provide basic statistics for strengthening Korea’s economic and diplomatic capacity vis-à-vis Central Asia, and provide plenty of implications for Korea’s entry into and activities in global business. In addition, it will also present useful data for academics researching the social, economic, cultural, and anthropological aspects of the region.

  • 중앙아시아 에너지 플랜트시장 전망과 한국의 참여방안에 관한 연구
    The Study of Prospects on the Energy Plant Market in the Central Asia and Participating Strategy of Korea

    The purpose of this treatise is to ascertain Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan’s potential for economic growth through the study of the industrial plant market in the Central Asia, widely considered the newest Greenfield of the rising ..

    Sung Hak Yoon et al. Date 2010.12.30

    Industrial Policy, Energy Industry
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    The purpose of this treatise is to ascertain Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan’s potential for economic growth through the study of the industrial plant market in the Central Asia, widely considered the newest Greenfield of the rising these economy, and contemplate measures that will allow Korea to make inroads into that market.
    The industrial plant market recently taking shape in the Central Asia, a region bordering the Korean Peninsula, presents Korea with new opportunities for growth, considering Korea’s world-class competitiveness in the construction and operation of industrial plants. However, the plant market in the Central Asia also presents significant obstacles including lack of institutional/legal support, unlike the Middle East, Korea's current No. 1 industrial plant market; insufficient funds to place orders for plant construction; not to mention fierce competition from China and Japan. This paper intends to outline strategies Korea might want to consider for its entry into the Central Asia industrial plant market, in the face of massive financial wherewithal and political clout possessed by the Chinese and the Japanese.
    Taking the above situation into consideration, the achievements and limitations of the current ‘package strategy’ combining existing resources and development will be discussed, followed by proposals for the creation of an overseas investment fund for the development industrial plants and natural resources. Korean companies expecting to succeed in the industrial plant market in the Central Asia should be acutely aware of and forewarned against the limitations of the package strategy. As the package strategy involves, by nature, a highly political agreement, country risks latent in the Central Asia should be handled and managed most deliberately.
    In order for Korea’s plant-building industry to prevail over competitors from China and Japan, the ability to procure sufficient capital should form the core element of the effort, as the success of Korea’s package strategy is largely dependent upon timely supply of necessary funds to companies participating in actual investment efforts. This means the Korean government must create a solid financial vision if Korea is to be successful in competition with rivals like China and Japan in developing regions like the Central Asia.

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