아세안

This paper provides an analysis of policy performance coming from Bayesian estimation and simulation of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Thailand. The model then examines the optimal counterfactual monetary and transfer policies directed to non-Ricardian “rule-of-thumb” consumers and to firms which borrow only for working capital. The results show throughout the sample period (2005–2021) that key macroeconomic variables were driven by a mix of internal and external real shocks. The dynamic adjustment paths from the actual policies are closer to those generated by optimal transfer and monetary policies during key crisis periods, than they were to paths generated by only a pure inflation-targeting policy with no other transfers.