아세안

Indonesia is slated to hold its simultaneous presidential and legislative elections on 14 February 2024. At this juncture, the most likely scenario is that Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming narrowly clinch a victory in the low 50% range. An alternative scenario is that the Prabowo–Gibran team will just fall short of the 50% mark, garnering votes in the high 40s, and this triggers a second round of elections that will be held on 26 June between the two best performing candidate pairs. For the national legislative elections, current survey data indicates that Prabowo’s political party, Gerindra, could dethrone the incumbent Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) to become the largest party in the national parliament. Alternatively, the PDIP could retain its leading status but the gap between the two largest parties could be significantly reduced. Regardless of whether team Prabowo–Gibran wins on 14 February in the low 50% range or narrowly misses a single-round victory, there is a need to pay attention to three potential developments in the immediate post-election period – election fraud and the legitimacy of the elections, the need for national reconciliation, and the last-mile legislative agenda of incumbent president Jokowi’s government.