아세안
연구정보
[경제] The Asian economy is performing well, but facing financial risks -COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis could make it more vulnerable
동남아시아 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - JRI 발간일 : 2022-08-04 등록일 : 2023-01-29 원문링크
Overall, the Asian economy has recovered since the early fall of 2021. We expect the Asian economy to continue to grow in the second half of this year as 1) easing of activity restrictions, 2) improvement of the Chinese economy, and 3) increase in external demand will support it. We expect the Asian economy to grow at a stable rate of + 4.7% in 2022, lower than the 7.2% growth recorded in 2021, but on par with the stable growth of +5.0% in 2019.
However, we have to pay attention to the possibility of financial instability becoming a downside risk to the Asian economy. An acceleration of US monetary policy normalization is increasing risks for to capital inflow in emerging economies. The problems of 1) deteriorating current account balances, 2) accelerating inflation, and 3) cumulatively increasing government debt caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine crisis could make Asian economies more vulnerable to external shocks.
By country, the Chinese economy is picking up due to the easing of activity restrictions and economic stimulus. Although we expect it to continue to pick up, we see the severe economic downturn in the April-June quarter dragging down the full-year real growth rate for 2022 to just +4.4%.
We expect India’s GDP to grow by +6.5% in FY 2022 as the economy continues to expand due to further easing of restrictions on activities. However, the pace of economic expansion is likely to be moderate given the mounting downward pressure on the economy from inflation and US monetary tightening.
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